Can the Joneses keep up with the market?

The Joneses will have to work hard to satisfy stockmarket
investors that theirs is a company worth investing in to
make the IPO a success.


A dearth of IPOs in New Zealand so far this year and what we have had has mostly been unmitigated garbage.

News released yesterday that The Joneses , the cut price real estate agent, is going to list on New Zealand Exchange's alternative market, in mid-February 2008 piqued my interest somewhat.

Now I guess your initial reaction might be hell, I don't trust real estate agents, and you could be forgiven for thinking that but I can see some promise in the idea that the owners of the Joneses', TJRE Holdings and director Chris Taylor have.

Kiwis have no listed exposure to the residential property market and we just love to invest in residential property, at the expense of the sharemarket mind, but what an opportunity to combine the two aspects.

The company is very small and has been operating since last year, with offices in Dunedin, Christchurch, Auckland and Wellington, so the possibility for good growth is there.

Revenues from house sales commissions are estimated at NZ$1.2 billion, with Barfoot and Thompson in Auckland taking up the bulk of that. The revenue is certainly there so it is a case of the Joneses upping their ante to keep up with the Barfoots and LJ Hookers of this world.

In the absence of more details of how the company is structured and how revenue is made, presumably through a cut of the sales commission, one cannot make a serious decision to plunk any shekels down yet.

Time to look at the industry and see how this model might work/fail if you want to invest.

Bring on the prospectus.


Related Share Investor reading

IPO quality indicative of poor economy
The Joneses Real Estate business fails to keep up with market conditions


C Share Investor 2007

List of MPs who voted for the Electoral Finance Bill(amended list)

The following is a list of those individuals who must hang their heads in shame for what they have done in passing The Electoral Finance Bill, they all voted for the Bill which will severely restrict New Zealander's right to free speech.

It will be a sad day when this Bill passes next week and the following must be remembered for all time for what they have done to their own country.

New Zealand Labour 49; New Zealand First 7; Green Party 6; Progressive 1

Ann Hartley	LABOUR	[ List MP ]
	Annette King	LABOUR	Rongotai
	Ashraf Choudhary	LABOUR	[ List MP ]
	Charles Chauvel	LABOUR	[ List MP ]
	Chris Carter	LABOUR	Te Atatu
	Clayton Cosgrove	LABOUR	Waimakariri
	Damien OConnor	LABOUR	West Coast-Tasman
	Darien Fenton	LABOUR	[ List MP ]
	Darren Hughes	LABOUR	Otaki
	Dave Hereora	LABOUR	[ List MP ]
	David Benson-Pope	LABOUR	Dunedin South
	David Cunliffe	LABOUR	New Lynn
	David Parker	LABOUR	[ List MP ]
	Dianne Yates	LABOUR	[ List MP ]
	Dover Samuels	LABOUR	[ List MP ]
	George Hawkins	LABOUR	Manurewa
	Georgina Beyer	LABOUR	[ List MP ]
	Harry Duynhoven	LABOUR	New Plymouth
	Helen Clark	LABOUR	Mt Albert
	Jill Pettis	LABOUR	[ List MP ]
	Jim Sutton	LABOUR	[ List MP ]
	Judith Tizard	LABOUR	Auckland Central
	Lianne Dalziel	LABOUR	Christchurch East
	Lynne Pillay	LABOUR	Waitakere
	Mahara Okeroa	LABOUR	Te Tai Tokerau
	Margaret Wilson	LABOUR	[ List MP ]
	Marian Hobbs	LABOUR	Wellington Central
	Mark Burton	LABOUR	Taupo
	Mark Gosche	LABOUR	Maungakiekie
	Martin Gallagher	LABOUR	Hamilton West
	Maryan Street	LABOUR	[ List MP ]
	Michael Cullen	LABOUR	[ List MP ]
	Mita Ririnui	LABOUR	[ List MP ]
	Moana Mackey	LABOUR	[ List MP ]
	Nanaia Mahuta	LABOUR	Tainui
	Parekura Horomia	LABOUR	Ikaroa-Rawhiti
	Paul Swain	LABOUR	Rimutaka
	Peter Hodgson	LABOUR	Dunedin North
	Phil Goff	LABOUR	Mt Roskill
	Rick Barker	LABOUR	[ List MP ]
	Ross Robertson	LABOUR	Manukau East
	Russell Fairbrother	LABOUR	[ List MP ]
	Ruth Dyson	LABOUR	Banks Peninsula
	Shane Jones	LABOUR	[ List MP ]
	Steve Chadwick	LABOUR	Rotorua
	Steve Maharey	LABOUR	Palmerston North
	Sue Moroney	LABOUR	[ List MP ]
	Tim Barnett	LABOUR	Christchurch Central
	Trevor Mallard	LABOUR	Hutt South
	Winnie Laban	LABOUR	Mana

Jeanette Fitzsimons	GREEN	[ List MP ]
	Keith Locke	GREEN	[ List MP ]
	Metiria Turei	GREEN	[ List MP ]
	Nandor Tanczos	GREEN	[ List MP ]
	Sue Bradford	GREEN	[ List MP ]
	Sue Kedgley	GREEN	[ List MP ]

Barbara Stewart	NZ FIRST	[ List MP ]
	Brian Donnelly	NZ FIRST	[ List MP ]
	Doug Woolerton	NZ FIRST	[ List MP ]
	Peter Brown	NZ FIRST	[ List MP ]
	Pita Paraone	NZ FIRST	[ List MP ]
	Ron Mark	NZ FIRST	[ List MP ]
	Winston Peters	NZ FIRST	[ List MP ]

C Political Animal 2007

Burger Fuel results and commentary

Once again Burger Fuel came out on top for Google search results on Share Investor today, so you might have been looking for the profit result that they posted today(see below story for detail)



But no free lunch, or dividends yet
For BFW shareholders.Not happy reading but it is early days yet of course.

One of the biggest reasons for the $1.9 million loss for the last 6 months was the 900 thousand odd spent on an IPO to raise a measly 8 million bucks, which management still has just under half of it in the bank left.

Having the $1.9 million "combined" loss stated at the bottom of the announcement isn't a good indicator for clear disclosure in the future.

The headline figure should be $1.9 million, not $1.3 million because the company is incurring the cost of the IPO regardless of management differentiating "pre" and "post" float numbers right at the bottom of the press release.

The announcement is titled as a 6 month result and last time I looked at my own personal accounts I had to take into account all figures positive or negative, even though I might have wanted to ignore any overdrafts.

According to their own figures the company's "one-off" costs of the IPO and a store opening in Sydney sent the loss higher than expected.

All that cash in the bank is very tempting but not much considering the level of expansion the small company seek in the next financial year, 4 more stores.

The positive news is that same stores sales were up 4% and that really is the only meaningful figure to comment on as we don't have a previous year revenue figure on hand for a comparison.

Josef Roberts should have some pause for optimism considering the same store figures on which Burger Fuel, as the Franchisor, reaps royalties from individual store sales.

Shares were up 4c to 64c on less than $700 volume.



Burger Fuel Worldwide @ Share Investor


Burger Fuel Worldwide: Losses Mount
Burgerfuel: Dubai Marketing Hype!!!
Burger Fuel 2010 Full Year Profit Analysis
Burger Fuel 2010 Full Year Profit Preview
Burger Fuel Worldwide: 2009 Half Year profit analysis
Stock of the Week: Burger Fuel Worldwide
Download full company analysis from Thomson First-Call
Burger Fuel doesn't rule out capital raising
Burger Fuel Worldwide: Closer look at Company Accounts
Analysis - Burger Fuel Worldwide: FY profit to 31/03/09
Burger Fuel: Running on Empty
Burger Fuel leaves investors hungryBurger Fuel management cagey over company progress
Burger Fuel cooks up Dubai deal
NZX share trades with strings attached
Don't buy Burger Fuel, yet
Burger Fuel: Inside info?
Burger Fool IPO: Burger Fool?
Exclusive Interview with Burger Fuel's Josef Roberts
Burger Fuel's Daytime drama
Burger Fuel share price out of gas
Beefing up store numbers
Director explains share price drop
Burger Fuel slims down in value
Burger Fuel and Coke
Marketing Burger Fuel's future
Pumpkin Patch VS Burger Fuel
Burger Fuel results and commentary

Discuss BFW @ Share Investor Forum - Register free


c Share Investor 2007

BFW
12/12/2007
HALFYR

REL: 1419 HRS Burger Fuel Worldwide Limited

HALFYR: BFW: Burger Fuel Worldwide Ltd Preliminary Half Year Results

Burger Fuel Worldwide Limited

Results for announcement to the market

Reporting Period 3 and a half months to 30 September 2007
Previous Half-year Reporting Period N/A

Amount (000's) Percentage change
Revenue from ordinary activities 1,400
Profit (loss) from ordinary activities after tax attributable to security
holders (1,355)
Net profit (loss) attributable to security holder (1,355)

Interim/Final Dividend Amount per security Imputed amount
per security

Record Date -
Dividend Payment Date -

Comments: See attached Directors commentary and following

To be followed by the balance of the information required in the report
pursuant to Appendix 1.

BURGERFUEL WORLDWIDE RESULTS TO 30 SEPTEMBER 2007

The directors of BurgerFuel Worldwide Limited (BFW) today reported an
un-audited loss of $1.35 million for the three-and-a-half month period to 30
September 2007, of which $991,000 represented costs associated with the
company's Initial Public Offering (IPO).

Of the remaining loss, the amount of $203,000 related to BFW's investment in
Australia, where the company opened its Kings Cross store on 7 October 2007.

BFW results for period 14 June to 30 September 2007

$(000's)

Operating Revenue 1,400

Operating Expenses * (2,755)
Loss (1,355)

* includes $991,000 of non-recurring costs associated with the IPO.

Directors say the loss is in line with the Boards' expectations after costs
associated with the IPO, as outlined in the company's prospectus.

They say continued losses of $50,000 per month are anticipated, but expect
these will progressively reduce as additional stores are opened.

Four additional BurgerFuel stores have opened since the incorporation of BFW
on June 14, one of which is company-owned. Total stores now number 24, of
which two are in Sydney, Australia. Of the 24 stores two are company owned
and the remaining 22 are franchised.

A further four new BurgerFuel stores are planned to open in this financial
year, at sites currently under negotiation.

BFW has four main areas of revenue: up-front franchise fees, on-going royalty
fees, sales of certain proprietary goods and store income from company-owned
stores.

System sales up 40%

For the 6 month period 1 April to 30 September 2007 (which included
pre-listing trading)

BurgerFuel's total system sales for all stores, from which BFW derived
franchise royalties were up 40% from $7.8 million to $10.9 million compared
with the previous corresponding period. Comparative results for same store
sales for the 6 month period were up 4%.

Following the company's NZAX listing, management has been firmly focused on
new store development and continued sales improvements and that in accordance
with the prospectus, BFW will continue to invest and expand the chain in New
Zealand as well as other potential markets.

To obtain an understanding of the overall consolidated trading results of the
BurgerFuel group of companies pre and post IPO for the 6 month period to 30
September 2007 the results are set out below:

Combined results pre and post IPO for the 6 month period, 1 April to 30
September 2007

($000's)

Revenue 2,336
Expenses * (4,284)
Loss (1,948)

* These results include non-recurring expenses of $1,321,000 for the
IPO.

A further amount of $298,000 relates to the costs associated with entry into
Australia.

BFW was incorporated on June 14, 2007. It raised $8M in its IPO. Funds have
been used for IPO costs, repayment of all loans and further capital
investment, such as the Kings Cross store.

BFW's cash reserves as at 30 September were $3,987,000. The company has no
borrowings.

For further information contact:

Josef Roberts
Director

021 444-786

Bollard sits on his hands

Alan Bollard rattled his sabre again last week.

Keeping the cash rate at 8.25% while telling us inflation was a risk down the road.

Well helloooo! could one of the reasons to the risk of inflation be your 4 rate hikes this year and multiple ones over the last few years?

The short answer is yes but the less interesting answer is that Bollard is clearly out of his depth.

Barely able to see over the rims of his accountant style glasses, he rarely has the vision to see further than what happens from day to day..

Instead of dropping the cash rate, as he should have, he risks putting the New Zealand economy at the sort of risk the Labour Government has put it under for the last 8 stifling years.

Labour did it with world record breaking high taxes, removing cash and investment from the economy and Bollard did it with the worlds highest interest rates outside the worlds other banana republics, ditto removing cash from street level and strangling productive investment, savings and business.

World economies are cutting rates to stimulate economies and Bollard sits on his hands. It looks like he will only move once the economic cycle we are in is in the middle of a meltdown.


Related Share Investor reading

Alan Bollard's indecision over OCR a worry to NZ INC


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c Share Investor 2007

Restaurant Brands: No reason for optimism in latest sales figures

Frankly if Van Arkel doesn't know why 2007 3rd quarter sales at Restaurant Brands Ltd [RBD.NZ] Pizza Hut are sliding and surmises that one reason might be that Pizza Hut customers are now shopping at KFC because of the marketing then I'm surprised if he knows what day of the week it is.

Has van Arcle ever ordered a Pizza from his own company?

I don't think so, because if he did he would find out the reason why Pizza Hut sales are doing a Hindenburg.

Its truly a horrible experience getting a pizza from this company. With phone customers there are inaccurate orders taken and the in-store experience with waiting times, if you can get past the surly staff, is quite often something akin to waiting for Led Zeppelin reform(OK, hang on they have, The Beatles then)

Customers are simply voting to go elsewhere, mostly Dominoes, where they get better food, service, prices and a ten minute wait.

A new "cheesy crust" pizza is picked to rescue sales in the coming quarter!

There is also talk of a "new look" for Pizza Hut next year. More capital expense and suffering shareholders as a result.

It really is the same crap from this management every sales/profit announcement, some lame excuse why sales are bad and promises that some new marketing scheme or food item will reverse fortunes.

Never a finger pointing at bad service, at themselves.

Increased KFC sales through the "transformation" of stores are being disingenuous to say the least.

Management are siting "record" sales at its fried chicken restaurants but the facts are that the year they might be comparing this latest result to, 2002, KFC did $177.1 million in sales.

If you add the 2007 cumulative 3 quarter total of $151.8 Million to say a generous $48 million final quarter, you are still just shy of $200 million, an approximate 12% rise in dollar sales since 2002. Factoring in a generous 3% annual inflation since then though and sales are 3% down since their record listed year in 2002.

If you add in the increased wages bills, power, ingredients and store refurbishment costs you can see management are still way behind the 8 ball.

And they have Red Rooster, Nandos and Oporto nipping at their heals. Red Rooster will be a big problem for them in the future as their food and service levels are far higher in my experience and they are a full service QSR, with drive through takeaway and sit down.

What can one say about their Starbucks units. Sales are increasing but still yet to turn a profit on top of horrendous overheads, especially lease arrangements.

Regular readers of my columns on this subject will have heard this before. Restaurant Brands needs a clean our from the top, a new head and associated management and a new service focused direction.

Dressing up stores is only going to last song long, putting the S back in service will keep customers coming back for more.

On a more positive note for the company, its shares were up by 1c today to 91c.



Restaurant Brands @ Share Investor

Finger Lick'n Good Management
Chart of the Week: Restaurant Brands Ltd
Long Term View: Restaurant Brands Ltd
Stock of Week: Restaurant Brands Ltd
Restaurant Brands: Buy or Sell ?
Pizza Hut sell-off provide opportunities all-round
Danny Diab & Restaurant Brands
2008-2009 KFC sales figures mislead investors
KFC Finally Flying
Starbuck's New Zealand Cup doesn't runneth over
RBD gives KFC a push
McDonald's playing chicken with KFC
Restaurant Brand's Pizza Hut faces increasing competition
RBD sales analysis
RBD saga continues: CEO leaves
The secret recipe is out
2007 FY profit analysis
Delivering increased profit in October 2007
No reason for optimism in latest sales figures

Discuss RBD @ Share Investor Forum

Download RBD company reports

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c Share Investor 2007

Electoral Finance Bill debate continues

Emmerson: "Power Junkie", NZ Herald Nov 27, 2007

The fascist Electoral Finance Bill gets debated again in Parliament at 2.00pm again today.

This is a huge week in our little democracy, the biggest since the constitutional change in our courts when the Privy Council was removed without public debate or notification and when a law was passed in 2006 making the stealing of $800,000.00 in public money by the Labour Party to buy the 2005 election, legal after the fact.

Let your MP and indeed Aunty Helen know what you think about this attack on our freedom.
Email them here

The bill is likely to be passed this week but if you show your opposition now, before you are forced to shut your gob next year, then, well, who knows.

You have got to be optimistic until the fat politician sings.


Below is what Helen Clark thinks of the Herald's stand against this bill. She blames the papers stance on the EFB as electioneering and its coverage misleading. The very things her minions in Wellington are doing and those Labour party members directed to write to papers and call talkback stations.

Her own minister, Annette King doesn't even understand the Bill! Mind you nobody can because it is so rushed. Its contradictory, badly written and lacks specifics.

Don't worry though, former dental nurse King, says we can interpret the Bill/Act, "with the law of commonsense".

5:00AM Tuesday December 11, 2007
By Claire Trevett , NZ Herald.

• Last-minute bid on bill set to fail
• Lincoln Tan: Freedoms in the balance

Prime Minister Helen Clark has given a biting appraisal of the media, saying it often lacked depth and taking a swipe at the Herald for its coverage of the Electoral Finance Bill.

Speaking to the Journalism Education Association conference in Wellington, the Prime Minister said fairness and balance were key responsibilities.

With clear reference to the Herald's campaign against the Electoral Finance Bill, she said "fairness and balance is in the eyes of the beholder".

"In my experience, after many years in politics it doesn't pay to be too thin-skinned about this. Actually, we put up with quite a lot, especially when a newspaper is in full campaign mode, like the Herald is at the moment, and it can run for weeks, if not months, with full-blooded attack, front-page headline, opinion editorials, editorials, attack stories, cartoons, you name it."

C Political Animal 2007

Retailers are having a Christmas sale

New Zealand Retail stocks are getting a real bashing at the moment and it seems the market sentiment for this is a lot of media attention about "price slashing" sales before Christmas.

Of course there is good reason to believe that margins will be affected because of discounts. Couple that with the high interest rates, a low US dollar impacting on NZ retailers with an international presence, uncertain seasons driving apparel retailers crazy and gas prices that have had a negative impact on sales through 2007 and you are going to see downward share price movements.

A Hallenstein's store interior

2008 probably isn't going to be much better, with more of the same experience from 2007, so you could see retail share prices continue to go south.

In my opinion though the market has overreacted to the negative news and there are some bargains to be had in retailing stocks.

Hallensteins Glassons, which I'm thinking of adding to my portfolio and has a dividend of over 10% net, hit a low today of NZ$3.84 after hitting the mid 5 bucks earlier this year, while Pumpkin Patch has sunk to $2.60 after almost reaching the magic $5.00 mark only months ago.

Before the High Court dismissal of the Commerce Commission decision to reject two prospective buyers of The Warehouse, its share price was drifting below 5 bucks and that companies sales have slowed and margins contacted and 2008 looks flat to ordinary.

Postie Plus made a loss earlier in the first half of this year and directors are pessimistic for the festive season, while Briscoe Group took a hit to their profit with a 15% dip in recent earnings.

The pressure hasn't hurt the likes of Michael Hill or Restaurant Brand's share prices too much in comparison to others, in fact RBD share prices has gone up while MHI share price has come off recent highs even though profit is up for the year.

That surely shows that market sentiment is punishing retailing stocks down too far.

Like every other sector of the economy retailing has its ups and downs and it is flat to negative at the moment but it wont last. Just like the sales that the retailers are having now and will have over the summer period, retail stocks are having their own sale.

Its up to you which retailer you are going to buy but it really makes sense to add to the long term portfolio when there is a sale happening.

Disclosure: I own Micheal Hill, Warehouse, Postie Plus and Pumpkin Patch shares


Related Share Investor reading

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c Share Investor 2007

Sunday Driving: Share Investor Portfolio 1 year on

Lets have a quick look at the performance of my portfolio over the last year.

The two portfolios listed below are dated 8.12.07 and 8.12.06, in descending order.

In the year of tracking I have received approx NZ$12,500.00 in net dividends which have been reinvested and $8500 odd in tax credits.

There is currently approximately $360 in cash.

I have added new stocks Postie Plus, Micheal Hill, and Kiwi Income Property Trust and added to my holdings in Pumpkin Patch and Mainfreight.

This has cost approximately $50000.00.

So remove these additional funds from the mix and we have a surplus for the year of $2611.00.

Not a good return at all but it is a long term portfolio and it will be interesting to see the value in a year from now. An example of how fickle things are, Sky City was trading more than 50c higher than last Friday a few months ago and the portfolio was standing at $20000.00 more.

The portfolio high for the year was just over $310,000.00 without the addition of the extra capital. So it is way below that figure.

The Warehouse, Sky City and Auckland Airport are all undergoing merger/takeover pressure.

Everything has been savaged and perhaps the best performing share on the NZX without takeover pressure would be Fletcher Building.


Still smiling even though my
returns have been crappy this year.


Portfolios in tables: current one first

S.I Portfolio @ 8.12.07	code	purchase price	purchase value	current price	current value	performance
	AIA	$2.06	$2060	$2.890	$2890	40.291%
Cash	ASBPB	$.7973	$7973	$0.975	$9750	22.288%
NZ$360	FBU	$9.106	$9106	$11.690	$11690	28.377%
	FPH	$3.63	$7260	$3.290	$6580	-9.366%
	FRE	$3.251	$26658.2	$3.740	$30668	15.042%
Tax Credits	GFF	$2.10	$4200	$2.200	$4400	4.762%
NZ$8500	KIP	$1.51	$1510	$1.350	$1350	-10.596%
	MFT	$7.385	$23078.125	$7.210	$22531.25	-2.37%
	MHI	$1.05	$1050	$1.030	$1030	-1.905%
	PPG	$.7925	$820.2375	$0.700	$724.5	-11.672%
	PPL	$3.5725	$7145	$2.650	$5300	-25.822%
	RYM	$1.936	$9680	$2.120	$10600	9.504%
	SKC	$2.38	$83300	$4.910	$171850	106.303%
	STU	$4.381	$1752.4	$3.670	$1468	-16.229%
	WHS	$5.413	$43304	$6.640	$53120	22.668%
Totals:			$228896.9625		$333951.75

S I Portfolio @ 8.12.06	code	purchase price	purchase value	current price	current value	performance
	AIA	$2.18	$2180	$2.150	$2150	-1.376%
	ASBPB	$.86	$8600	$1.030	$10300	19.767%
	FBU	$9.78	$9780	$10.300	$10300	5.317%
	FRE	$3.52	$28864	$4.200	$34440	19.318%
	GFF	$2.265	$4530	$2.400	$4800	5.96%
	MFT	$8.0167	$24050.1	$8.100	$24300	1.039%
	PPL	$4.1666	$4166.6	$4.200	$4200	0.802%
	RYM	$9.79	$9790	$9.750	$9750	-0.409%
	SKC	$2.69	$94150	$5.120	$179200	90.335%
	STU	$4.81	$1924	$4.750	$1900	-1.247%
Totals:			$188034.7		$281340

$2170.30 Cash @ Bank

C Share Investor 2006, 2007