Wednesday, December 15, 2010

Stock of the Week: Reprise 2: New Zealand Refining Ltd



With low refining rates, massive capital expenditure and plant shutdowns largely behind them and a rising global oil prices, 2011 looks to be a resurgent year for New Zealand Refining Ltd [NZR.NZX].

Back in October NZR was a Stock of the Week because its share price was 30c below what it closed at yesterday and I commented that higher oil prices will see this stock rise (well duh) and it has but the oil price rise has been a significant one. It has been mainly due to a very cold Northern Winter bumping up all sort of petrochemical products so it is unclear just how sustainable the oil price rise will be. Having said that the recent rise is bound to gain some traction even when the Northern ice melts away.

NZR is also subject to the NZ dollar US dollar cross but it looks like the Kiwi has finally started its appropriate ride down (ironically partly due to higher oil prices) to a value that reflects the dire outlook for our economy over the next 3-5 years.

These positive impacts for NZR seem to be conspiring all at the same time and should have a big impact on the fortunes of the company for 2011.

Historically the closing price of $3.91 yesterday is relatively low but you might want to put this on your watchlist if you are thinking of buying NZR and buy on any overall market weakness.

NZR @ Share Investor

Stock of the Week - Reprise: NZ Refining Ltd
Chart of the Week: New Zealand Refining Ltd
Stock of the Week: NZ Refining Ltd

Discuss NZR @ Share Investor Forum
Download NZR Company Reports


Stock of the Week Series

Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd
Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd
Reprise 5: Contact Energy Ltd
Reprise 4: Contact Energy Ltd
Reprise 3: Contact Energy Ltd
Delegats Group Ltd
Reprise 2 : Contact Energy Ltd
Reprise: Contact Energy Ltd
Restaurant Brands
NZ Refining
Ryman Healthcare
Mainfreight Ltd
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Xero Ltd
Auckland International Airport
Sky City Entertainment Group
Burger Fuel Worldwide
Michael Hill International
Contact Energy Ltd
The Warehouse Group
Fisher & Paykel Appliances
Reprise: NZ Refining Ltd


Recommended Fishpond Reading

Crisis: One Central Bank Governor and the Global Financial Collapse

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Fishpond


c Share Investor 2010

Tuesday, December 14, 2010

Burger Fuel Worldwide: Losses Mount

Burger Fuel Worldwide Ltd [BFW.NZX] has just racked up its 7th consecutive half year loss to 30 Sept 2010 since listing in mid 2007.

Typical of management, the company is highlighting sales revenue from franchised stores, which has risen sharply due to store openings in the Middle East and downplaying the franchise income - which is what the company will eventually make a profit on - which has increased by a small fraction.

Key Points

Loss of $219,000 down 26% on lasts half's $296,000

Flagship Kings Cross store closed

Middle East stores performing well.

Australasia stores flat

Set to exit remaining Sydney store.

$1,153,153 cash left in bank

Profit possibly set for 2012 - 2013

The $219,022 loss is a 26% improvement on last years comparable figure so at least this is improving but the company is struggling in New Zealand and has largely abandoned its Australian operations which were a big focus of growth when they announced their IPO. Their Flagship store in Kings Cross has been closed to save money.

The focus from 2010 onwards is growing in the Middle East. Well done to change tack so quickly but the homework just hadn't been well done before a couple of million dollars of shareholder money was lost in Australia.

Shareholders will have to question as to whether the Middle East is going to be any different from the Australian experience but thus far it is looking a little more promising than our more competitive and more business savvy cousins across the Tasman.

Management have focused the 2010 calendar year on pruning business costs and have managed to save $68,000 in the last half year .

Significantly management have changed their expansion model so will grow by means of Area Development or Master License Agreements. This is where the licensee is responsible for all capital and operational costs. This will clearly allow the company to grow quicker and cheaper where it sees the opportunity.

Management indicate they see limited scope for expansion in Australasia and see a patchy and uncertain 2011 ahead.

There is no indication as to when the company will make its maiden profit but management indicated that "the company expects to reach profitability in the near future".

It looks to me that 2012 - 2013 could be that near future.


Burger Fuel Worldwide @ Share Investor

Burgerfuel: Dubai Marketing Hype!!!
Burger Fuel 2010 Full Year Profit Analysis
Burger Fuel 2010 Full Year Profit Preview
Burger Fuel Worldwide: 2009 Half Year profit analysis
Stock of the Week: Burger Fuel Worldwide
Download full company analysis from Thomson First-Call
Burger Fuel doesn't rule out capital raising
Burger Fuel Worldwide: Closer look at Company Accounts
Analysis - Burger Fuel Worldwide: FY profit to 31/03/09
Burger Fuel: Running on Empty
Burger Fuel leaves investors hungry
Burger Fuel management cagey over company progress
Burger Fuel cooks up Dubai deal
NZX share trades with strings attached
Don't buy Burger Fuel, yet
Burger Fuel: Inside info?
Burger Fool IPO: Burger Fool?
Exclusive Interview with Burger Fuel's Josef Roberts
Burger Fuel's Daytime drama
Burger Fuel share price out of gas
Beefing up store numbers
Director explains share price drop
Burger Fuel slims down in value
Burger Fuel and Coke
Marketing Burger Fuel's future
Pumpkin Patch VS Burger Fuel
Burger Fuel results and commentary

Discuss BFW @ Share Investor Forum - Register free
Download BFW Company Reports


From Fishpond.co.nz

Every Bastard Says No: The 42 Below Story

Buy Every Bastard Says No - The 42 Below Story, by Geoff Ross & Justine Troy & more @ Fishpond.co.nz

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c Share Investor 2010

Monday, December 13, 2010

Share Investor Portfolio: Value at 13 December 2010

The Share Investor Portfolio was marginally up on last weeks portfolio update. The portfolio was up by 0.33% or $918.40. As you might expect from this nothing much moved at all. The bulk of the portfolio, SKC, was even and other shares moved marginally up to take up the slack.

The total of unspent dividends in the bank from the 2010 earnings year is $16631.93 at close of reporting season for 2010. There are also approx $50000.00 in tax credits earned from the portfolio since it began in late 2002.


Share Investor Portfolio as at 17:30:00, Friday 10 December, 2010

Stock
Quantity
Cost price
Total cost
Market price
Market value
Change
%
AIA

2,000 $1.700 $3,400.00 $2.070 $4,140.00 $740.00 21.76%
AIA

2,000 $1.510 $3,020.00 $2.070 $4,140.00 $1,120.00 37.09%
AIA

803 $2.150 $1,726.45 $2.070 $1,662.21 $64.24 3.72%
AIA

445 $0.000 $0.00 $2.070 $921.15 $921.15
AIA

64 $1.650 $105.60 $2.070 $132.48 $26.88 25.45%
ASBPB

2,946 $0.000 $0.00 $0.706 $2,079.88 $2,079.88
ASBPB

7,054 $1.000 $7,054.00 $0.706 $4,980.12 $2,073.88 29.40%
BGR

438 $0.000 $0.00 $1.400 $613.20 $613.20
BGR

2,562 $0.990 $2,536.38 $1.400 $3,586.80 $1,050.42 41.41%
FBU

266 $0.000 $0.00 $7.820 $2,080.12 $2,080.12
FBU

848 $9.750 $8,268.00 $7.820 $6,631.36 $1,636.64 19.79%
FPH

3,000 $2.350 $7,050.00 $3.140 $9,420.00 $2,370.00 33.62%
FPH

541 $0.000 $0.00 $3.140 $1,698.74 $1,698.74
FPH

1,459 $3.720 $5,427.48 $3.140 $4,581.26 $846.22 15.59%
FRE

1,882 $0.000 $0.00 $3.050 $5,740.10 $5,740.10
FRE

6,749 $3.630 $24,498.87 $3.050 $20,584.45 $3,914.42 15.98%
GFF

541 $0.000 $0.00 $1.800 $973.80 $973.80
GFF

1,459 $2.330 $3,399.47 $1.800 $2,626.20 $773.27 22.75%
HLG

244 $0.000 $0.00 $4.170 $1,017.48 $1,017.48
HLG

756 $2.530 $1,912.68 $4.170 $3,152.52 $1,239.84 64.82%
KIP

190 $0.000 $0.00 $0.990 $188.10 $188.10
KIP

810 $1.480 $1,198.80 $0.990 $801.90 $396.90 33.11%
MFT

1,000 $7.960 $7,960.00 $7.670 $7,670.00 $290.00 3.64%
MFT

1,838 $8.000 $14,704.00 $7.670 $14,097.46 $606.54 4.13%
MFT

657 $0.000 $0.00 $7.670 $5,039.19 $5,039.19
MFT

1,505 $4.200 $6,321.00 $7.670 $11,543.35 $5,222.35 82.62%
MHI

1,646 $0.860 $1,415.56 $0.820 $1,349.72 $65.84 4.65%
MHI

7,000 $0.630 $4,410.00 $0.820 $5,740.00 $1,330.00 30.16%
MHI

718 $0.000 $0.00 $0.820 $588.76 $588.76
MHI

636 $1.050 $667.80 $0.820 $521.52 $146.28 21.90%
PPG

31 $0.000 $0.00 $0.300 $9.30 $9.30
PPG

1,500 $0.440 $660.00 $0.300 $450.00 $210.00 31.82%
PPG

1,004 $0.800 $803.20 $0.300 $301.20 $502.00 62.50%
PPL

1,000 $3.090 $3,090.00 $1.650 $1,650.00 $1,440.00 46.60%
PPL

1,000 $2.870 $2,870.00 $1.650 $1,650.00 $1,220.00 42.51%
PPL

939 $4.200 $3,943.80 $1.650 $1,549.35 $2,394.45 60.71%
PPL

877 $0.000 $0.00 $1.650 $1,447.05 $1,447.05
PPL

1,184 $1.530 $1,811.52 $1.650 $1,953.60 $142.08 7.84%
RYM

459 $0.000 $0.00 $2.230 $1,023.57 $1,023.57
RYM

4,586 $1.970 $9,034.42 $2.230 $10,226.78 $1,192.36 13.20%
SKC

5,750 $7.430 $42,722.50 $3.130 $17,997.50 $24,725.00 57.87%
SKC

1,000 $7.600 $7,600.00 $3.130 $3,130.00 $4,470.00 58.82%
SKC

2,750 $7.700 $21,175.00 $3.130 $8,607.50 $12,567.50 59.35%
SKC

1,431 $8.750 $12,521.25 $3.130 $4,479.03 $8,042.22 64.23%
SKC

25,085 $0.000 $0.00 $3.130 $78,516.05 $78,516.05
SKC

899 $4.720 $4,243.28 $3.130 $2,813.87 $1,429.41 33.69%
STU

78 $0.000 $0.00 $2.090 $163.02 $163.02
STU

322 $4.740 $1,526.28 $2.090 $672.98 $853.30 55.91%
WHS

4,500 $3.730 $16,785.00 $3.750 $16,875.00 $90.00 0.54%
WHS
6,979 $6.000 $41,874.00 $3.750 $26,171.25 $15,702.75 37.50%
WHS

2,880 $0.000 $0.00 $3.750 $10,800.00 $10,800.00
WHS

641 $3.710 $2,378.11 $3.750 $2,403.75 $25.64 1.08%

15.49%


Total cost Market value Change

$278,114.45 $321,192.67 $43,078.22


Share Investor Portfolio @ Share Investor

Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 6 December 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 29 November 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 22 November 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 15 November 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 8 November 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 1 November 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 25 October 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 18 October 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 11 October 2010
Share Investor Dividends

New From Fishpond.co.nz


Hubbard: A Biography of Allan Hubbard


c Share Investor 2010

Thursday, December 9, 2010

Serious Fraud Office set to Make "Ponzi" Arrests

There is going to be an arrest today based on evidence obtained by The Serious Fraud Office (SFO) of an individual involved in a "ponzi" type money go round scheme where 10s of millions of dollars have gone south.

There is conjecture though as to who the individual might be. There are a number of SFO investigations currently active as listed on their website. Those involved with investor money, and with more than $20m of losses are as follows:

  • Aorangi Securities
  • B'On Financial Services
  • Bridgecorp
  • Capital+Merchant Finance
  • Dominion Finance
  • Five Star
  • Hanover Finance
  • Kiwi Finance
  • Nathan Finance
  • National Finance
  • South Canterbury Finance
  • WSD Global Markets
All the above have been involved in dodgy shell games with other peoples money so it is anyone's guess just who it might be.

In my opinion the most likely contenders are Hanover Finance, Aorangi Securities and South Canterbury Finance.

The last two entities are just two of Allan Hubbard's failed financial vehicles and have been under investigation for a number of months by the SFO and other financial oversight bodies but the investigation is unlikely to be finished yet due to the complications surrounding bookkeeping issues, the sum of money involved and the complex interrelation of insider companies lending money to each other.

There has been some indication though from evidence thus far disclosed that there has been some sort of "ponzi" like money go round, with fake investments, forged documents and lack of full disclosure or any disclosure at all with the bulk of investments made during the last two years or so.

To me though the most likely contender for manacles today will be either Mark Hotchin or Eric Watson from the failed Hanover Finance group.

In the dying days of Hanover many millions were transferred from the company to the personal accounts of the aforementioned and for many more years before that the company operated on a knife edge cashflow wise as dividends were stripped and short term money was invested in long term assets - as most finance companies did.

Hanover has been under the shadow of the SFO for most of 2010 and only a few weeks ago pressure was put on directors as they faced some "serious questions" from an SFO ready to finally grab one of the more high profile individuals from New Zealand finance company failures over the three or four years.

From the list of Finance companies above there are already a number of individuals as directors facing court time in 2011 and some have already been charged with other financial misdemeanors and worse and have either walked or faced a slap on the hand with the proverbial bus ticket.

Hanover is the most high profile finance company failure bar the Allan Hubbard Saga and Hotchin and Watson certainly do not have the support that Hubbard has had and would be a feather in the SFO cap as they seemed to have reached a frenzy of activity over the latter part of 2010 after being relatively quiet over the last 4 years on finance company failures.

The scalp of either Watson of Hotchin would be a major public relations coup for them and for that reason, along with their clear hide and seek nature with investors funds of their former business, I will take a punt and pick them for court time in 2011.


Related Share Investor Reading

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New Zealand Financial Oversight bodies fail Blue Chip Investors
Mark Bryer's at the top of a very shaky pyramid
Whatever happened to? Muriel Dunn
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Financial 101: Learn before you leap
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Hanover Saga

Hanover, Allied Farmers deal more of the same
Hanover's "White Knights" are really daylight robbers
Hanover collapse: It was just a matter of time

Allied Farmers Saga

Allied Farmers: Rights Issue Decision
Allied Farmers: Prosecutions should be on the cards
Allied Farmers Fraud passes with little fanfare
Allied Farmers: What's it Worth?
Hanover, Allied Farmers deal more of the same

Allan Hubbard Saga

Full SFO Statement on SCF Fraud Investigation

Download Grant Thornton Report 1
Download Grant Thornton Report 2
Download Grant Thornton Report 3
Download Grant Thornton Report 4
Download Grant Thornton Report 5

Join the Put Allan Hubbard Away Facebook Group

Book Review: Allan Hubbard: Man Out of Time, by Virginia Green
Allan Hubbard Saga: VIDEO - Hubbard Biographer Virginia Green on TVNZ's Breakfast
Book Extract - Allan Hubbard: Man Out of Time
Allan Hubbard Saga: Going Feral - Part 3, The Final Cut
Allan Hubbard Saga: Going Feral - Part 2
Allan Hubbard Saga: Paul Carruthers Goes Feral... Again
Allan Hubbard: The Biography
Allan Hubbard Saga: On Forged Signatures and Uncharitable Trusts
Allan Hubbard Saga: Evidence of Fraud now Clear
Allan Hubbard Saga: NBR VS the SFO
Allan Hubbard Saga: South Canterbury Finance to be investigated by the SFO
Allan Hubbard Saga: Third Grant Thornton Report
Allan Hubbard Saga: Will He Walk?
Allan Hubbard Saga: No Longer Bothered by Botherway
Allan Hubbard Saga: 60 Minutes Interview, Sept 23 2010
Allan Hubbard Saga: Supporters head to the exit door
Allan Hubbard Saga: Threats & the Mysterious PWC Report
Allan Hubbard Supporters: Conflict of Interest
VW Veneer reveals BMW heart
VIDEO: Jenni McManus Explains Allan Hubbard Collapse
Allan Hubbard Statement on SCF Receivership
VIDEO: Sandy Maier - full news conference on SCF Receivership
Market Alert: South Canterbury Finance to be placed in Receivership
Allan Hubbard: Ignorant Supporters Blissfully Unaware
Thornton Report 2: Allan Hubbard Guilty as Charged
Allan Hubbard: Full TV3 Interview - July 16 2010
Thornton Report 1: Allan Hubbard's Aorangi Securities
Bothered by Simon Botherway

New From Fishpond.co.nz

Allan Hubbard: Man Out of Time - By Virginia Green

Hubbard: A Biography of Allan Hubbard



c Share Investor 2010