Thursday, March 8, 2007

Restaurant Brands 2007 Sales Analysis

The latest sales release from RBD can be described best as, same crap different year.

Lets have a closer look:


KFC


KFC ended the financial year with the highest total sales ever at $182.7m, an increase of 6.3 per cent over the prior year. Same store sales increased 7.1 per cent for the full year, the highest annual same store sales growth.


In pure dollar terms yes KFC is 5m ahead of sales figures of 2002 , less than a 3% increase but when you factor in inflation, at a generous figure to RBD of 3%, that increase in sales is more than wiped out in one year. Extrapolate that 3% out over 5 years and you can see KFC is still hurting badly. I'm being generous to KFC and disregarding increased wages, utilities, raw product costs.


"The transformation of KFC is clearly gaining momentum as we combine store revamps with some innovative new products and a successful promotional calendar," she said today.


Now where did I hear that word "transformation" before. Yes! it was on the cover of the 2000 annual report, That was the buzz word for the year-looks like it was Vicki's' idea because she has wheeled it out again this year.


Transformation, specifically related to KFC in the 2000 report:


"..transformation of KFC with the introduction of innovative burger and snack products and store upgrades..."


AND


"...the KFC brand has been re-inventing itself...the continued store upgrade...provide(s) customers with the excitement of a vibrant,fast moving brand..."


All sounds eerily familiar to today's statement.


Vicki has a focus on marketing even in her press releases, I cant wait for this years report for some new buzz words.


Watch KFC in the face of competition from other chicken chains, notably Red Rooster. KFC is now offering whole roast chickens, as RR has always done. I put the idea of providing roast chickens to the head of KFC 7 years ago but he told me it wasn't viable because of the costs involved-oh how times change.



Pizza Hut


Not much to be said really, the figures speak for themselves:


For the full year, total Pizza Hut New Zealand sales were down 10.5 per cent to $79.7m, with same store sales declining 11.8 per cent.


In the face of competition from Domino's, complacent RBD management have let this brand suffer so much the amount of dough in their pizzas can now be seen from space. I remember Vicki saying something like "...we are not worried about the competition..." when Domino's first came on the scene. Look at Domino's now, we have never been back to PH since Domino's opened and sales figures suggest alot of others have done the same.



Starbucks


Ironically this brand used to be the straggler, now sales are increasing and all looks good. Except it still operates at a loss because operating costs are too high. Rent of some of those CBD outlets of theirs is killing the very reason for them being in business.



Summary


The focus by Vicki and her troupe on style over substance-brand image is just that if there is trouble in the kitchen: high management cost, poor service. There was no mention, and there should be, of service levels and what they are doing to make them acceptable, so we can only assume by the service in front of house that they are doing a big fat nothing.


In the face of competition RBD is an immovable feast: complacent at best and slow to react . Witness the demolition of Pizza Hut by Domino's and then wonder what might happen to KFC in the face of a bigger Red Rooster or Church's Chicken of America(cover your eyes it ain't going to be pretty)


Looking through nearly ten years of RBD reports, one must come to the conclusion that RBD, while going up and down in fortune, as QSRs do, it keeps going further down when it is down and never quite reaching the previous peak when its fortunes are up.


The future does not look good and recent talk of takeover activity(doubtful according to todays spin) may only happen when the next valley RBD gets into is unable to be got out of by spending more shareholders money on a new marketing plan, when it is the S in QSR that is sadly missing from RBD management's secret recipe.



Restaurant Brands @ Share Investor


KFC finally flying

Starbuck's New Zealand Cup doesnt runneth over
RBD gives KFC a push
McDonalds playing chicken with KFC
Restaurant Brand's Pizza Hut faces increasing competition
RBD sales analysis
RBD saga continues: CEO leaves
The secret recipe is out
2007 FY profit analysis
Delivering increased profit in October 2007
No reason for optimism in latest sales figures






c Share Investor 2007



Wednesday, March 7, 2007

Long Vs Short Term Investing

An interesting debate that was carried out on my share investor forum


The 2 opposing sides of this debate are encapsulated perfectly by a third entrant:

Brut wrote

Macdunk & Snoopy

I am new on this tread but I thought I'll add my 2 cents worth... It's great to have two opposing views on investing in the share market, if everyone agreed there wouldn't be a market. By this i mean, if everyone agreed (bulls & the bears) that XYZ stock was worth $5 a share, there wouldn't be a market (nobody would be buying or selling)

I personally like to invest 90% of my portfollio in long term stocks & I have 10% in speculative stocks that I trade. I'm probably not as experience as you guys, but I've learnt that you find a system that works for you & stick to it.
Goodluck to both of you!!!



... It's great to have two opposing views on investing in the share market, if everyone agreed there wouldn't be a market...

Share Investor

Exactly, I couldn't have said it better myself. Snoopy and Macca are examples of the 2 opposite sides of your quote Brut.

Welcome to Share Investor!



The debate over the long and short-term thing rages on. I have a go at both approaches and both can be used in one's arsenal of investing tools, a Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett approach if you like!!

Many investors say on or the other of these methods is right or wrong. Remember though, when investing do what is right for you dear reader.

Happy Investing,


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c Share Investor 2007


Thursday, March 1, 2007

Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd: 2007 Half Year Profit Commentary

While there is plenty to be negative of over yesterday's first half year for Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd [SKC.NZX] ,there is positive as well(sometimes you have to ignore the negative because it is just that bad - sense the sarcasm in my turn of phrase...? )

First the negative. Clearly one of the contributors to the 23% profit slide was the luck of the high rollers-the luck went with them this time. That doesn't explain the whole picture though. There was also a 5% drop in revenue from the flagship Auckland Casino and since margins there are the highest of the groups casinos profit got hit.

Another large contributor to the profit drop was the cinema division, a division so devoid of promise and future growth and so demanding on CAPEX and time that it sickens me that management would hold onto it, what do i know though...

What we could say though is that it is only up from here, I cant see things getting worse-famous last words huh?

The positives are quite clear. Revenue is up at all other casinos, even Adelaide, and especially Darwin. Darwin, in my humble opinion, is a future star of Sky City, an area growing rapidly with no sign of any smoking Nazi's getting their way and banning smoking-very important for gamblers.

I would have to give the result a 4 out of ten. VERY disappointing.


Disc: I own SKC shares in the Share Investor Portfolio


Sky City Convention Centre @ Share Investor

Share Investor discusses Convention Centre proposal with CEO Nigel Morrison

Sky City Convention Centre Expansion a Money Loser: Part Two
Sky City Convention Centre Expansion a Money loser
SKC Convention Centre power-point slide illustrations & SKC submission to Auckland City Council

Sky City Entertainment Group @ Share Investor


Share Investor's Total Returns: Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd
Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd: Presentation to Macquarie Group
Morningstar Revalues Sky City Entertainment Group
Guest Post - Michele Hewitson Interview: Nigel Morrison
Failed Sky City bid for Christchurch Casino good news for Shareholders
Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd: Christchurch Casino bid falls short of Investment Criteria
Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd: Never mind the width feel the volume
Sky City Annual Meeting & 2011 - 2012 Profit Forecast
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Sky City Entertainment Group: Australian Acquisition on the Cards?
Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd: 2010 Full Year Profit Analysis
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Share Investor discusses Convention Centre proposal with CEO Nigel Morrison
Share Investor Q & A: Sky City CEO, Nigel Morrison
Sky City Entertainment: CEO Nigel Morrison discusses 2010 HY
Sky City Convention Centre Expansion a Money Loser: Part Two
Sky City Convention Centre Expansion a Money loser
Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd: Download full Company analysis
Sky City 2010 full year profit looking good
Long Term View: Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd
Sky City Entertainment: CEO Nigel Morrison discusses 2010 Half Year
Sky City Entertainment Group 2010 Interim Profit Review
Sky City to focus on Gaming
Sky City debts levels now more manageable
Insider Trading on Sky City shares
Sky City Profit Upgrade: Always on the Cards
Sky City's Current Cinema "Boom" a Horror Story in Disguise
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Sky City Entertainment 2009 Interim Result Preamble
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Sky City Entertainment 2008 Full Year profit results , NZX release, 2008 full year presentation, result briefing webcast, financial statements
Sky City 2008 profit preamble
Sky City outlines a clear future plan
As recession bites Sky City bites back
Sky City Assets: Buy, sell and hold
Why did you buy that stock? [Sky City Entertainment]
Sky City Share Volumes set tongues wagging
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NZX Press release: Sky City profit to HY end Dec 2007
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Sky City Entertainment share price drop
New Broom set to sweep
Sky City Management: Blind, deaf and numb
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Opposition to takeover
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Discuss SKC @ Share Investor Forum
Download SKC Company Reports


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c Share Investor 2007

Wednesday, February 28, 2007

Sky City Casino 2007 HY Profit

Read it and weep dear readers, i mean actually weep. The profit drop was canvassed back in October but nothing sobers you up more than the fact and a cut of the dividend.

Let's hope the next half can play some catchup:



Sky City Entertainment Group Limited (NS) - Announcements


SKC
28/02/2007
HALFYR

REL: 0924 HRS Sky City Entertainment Group Limited (NS)

HALFYR: SKC: : Interim Result 2007

FLYR: SKC: Summary half year to 31/12/06 $45.0m ($58.6m) -23.2% 9.0 cps

SUMMARY OF PRELIMINARY HALF YEAR ANNOUNCEMENT

Name of Listed Issuer: SKYCITY Entertainment Group Limited

For half-year ended: 31 December 2006

CONSOLIDATED OPERATING STATEMENT
Current Half Year NZ$'000; Up/Down %; Previous Corresponding Half Year
NZ$'000

Operating revenue: $419,170; up 8.5%; $386,261

OPERATING SURPLUS BEFORE UNUSUAL ITEMS AND TAX: $64,123; down 18.9%; $79,029

Unusual items for separate disclosure: None

OPERATING SURPLUS BEFORE TAX: $64,123; down 18.9%; $79,029

Less tax on operating profit: $19,030; down 7.8%; $20,642

OPERATING SURPLUS AFTER TAX ATTRIBUTABLE TO MEMBERS OF LISTED ISSUER:
$45,045; down 23.2%; $58,615

Extraordinary items after tax attributable to Members of the Listed Issuer:
$0; nil%; $0

OPERATING SURPLUS AND EXTRAORDINARY ITEMS AFTER TAX ATTRIBUTABLE TO MEMBERS
OF THE LISTED ISSUER: $45,045; down 23.2%; $58,615

Earnings per share: 10.3 cps; 14.0 cps

Interim distribution: 9.0 cps

Record Date: 14 March 2007. Date Payable: 13 April 2007

Bonus Issue 


The attached Appendix 7 relates to SKYCITY Entertainment Group's FY07 interim
profit distribution by way of a bonus share issue with an option to have the
bonus shares bought back by the company for cash. Full imputation credits
will be attached to distributions made to shareholders who elect to have their bonus shares bought back for cash.

Appendix 7 sets out the relevant dates for the bonus issue and the cents per
share (9cps) that the distribution will be calculated from.
The example below shows how the number of bonus shares issued to each
shareholder will be calculated.

EXAMPLE ONLY 


Distribution amount per share $0.09
Weighted average sale price of SKYCITY shares on NZSX (this is indicative
only and for illustrative purposes uses the weighted
average SKC price on the NZSX for the period 19/2/07-23/2/07 adjusted for the
distribution) $5.2336
Discount 2.5%
Strike price $5.2336 x (1 - 2.5%) $5.10276
The bonus issue ratio is calculated as $0.09 / $5.10276
The bonus issue ratio is therefore 0.0176375 bonus shares for every one share
held. 


Note that the above is an example only and will vary depending on the final
strike price. The strike price will be advised to NZX together with an
updated Appendix 7 on Thursday 22 March 2007.

Dividend 


Amount per security $0.09
Imputation Credits $0.044328 (applicable to shareholders who accept
associated buy back offer)
Record Date 14/03/07
Application Date 13/04/07

Supplementary Dividend
Amount per security $0.015882
Payment Date 13/04/07
(applicable to sharehoolders who accept buy back offer)

SKYCITY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP ANNOUNCES
$45 MILLION INTERIM PROFIT 


SKYCITY Entertainment Group today reported a $45 million interim net profit
for the six months to December 2006 and an interim distribution to
shareholders of 9 cents per share. A steady underlying Group performance has
been offset by weaker Auckland trading conditions and losses from
VIP/commission play, as indicated in SKYCITY's October 2006 profit guidance. 


As a consequence, the reported profit of $45 million was 23% down on the
$58.6 million profit recorded in 1H06. After adjusting for non-recurring
items and VIP volatility, the underlying normalised 1H07 profit was $48.2
million. SKYCITY Entertainment Group Managing Director, Evan Davies, said the
normalised profit gave a clearer indication of underlying business
performance by removing the volatility of VIP/commission play and one-off
capital-related transactions. SKYCITY has therefore provided the normalised
profit figure of $48.2 million as a guide to shareholders, restating VIP play
at theoretical outcomes,deducting non-recurring gains from capital restructuring and normalising the company's tax rate. SKYCITY Entertainment Group revenues rose 8.5% to $419.2 million (1H06 $386.3 million), with gaming revenues comprising 72% or $300 million. SKYCITY's Hamilton, Christchurch, Queenstown, Darwin and Adelaide properties all traded in line with or ahead of expectations. 


Net earnings before funding costs and income tax (EBIT) fell 7.9% to $110.3
million from $119.7 million in 1H06, with earnings per share at 10.3 cents,
down from 14 cents per share in 1H06. Normalised earnings per share is 11.1
cents.

Core business fundamentals 


SKYCITY Managing Director, Evan Davies, said the interim result was at the
lower end of the guidance range advised to the market in October 2006, and
this would be reflected in the FY07 result. 


Nevertheless SKYCITY's core fundamentals remained sound.


"In the past ten years, we have become a diversified trans-Tasman company
with $1.7 billion in strategic assets. This is a strong, established
business. By investing in the customer experience we have acquired market
leadership, market reach and market brand. Our focus is now on ensuring we
deliver profitable growth by driving revenues, minimising costs and
maximising margins."

Focus on SKYCITY Auckland 


SKYCITY Auckland revenues declined 4.7% to $213.1 million in 1H07, driven by
an 8% fall in gaming revenues to $163 million. While both gaming machines and
local table play reported lower revenues, the major impact was due to
significantly reduced revenues from international commission play. After
payment of commissions, international VIP play recorded a loss of $2.9
million for 1H07, a significant reversal of previous VIP/international
results. Overall pre-tax earnings (EBIT) were down 22% to $65.4 million.

Gaming performance was offset by strong non-gaming business results. Hotel
revenues rose 18% to $15.4 million, with the Grand Hotel continuing to grow
both occupancy levels and revenues. SKYCITY Auckland Convention Centre
consolidated its market leadership position, generating $9 million. Food
and Beverage held steady, but new restaurants 'Bellota' and 'dine by Peter
Gordon' performed ahead of expectations. 


SKYCITY Managing Director Evan Davies said the clear focus now was to lift
operational gaming performance. "In recent years, it has been critical for us
to diversify and broaden the Auckland entertainment experience. As a
consequence, non-gaming revenues grew 8% in 1H07," Evan Davies said. "Our
priority now is to reinvigorate our gaming customer experience. Our main
Auckland gaming floor upgrade - the first in a decade - is critical to
re-engaging our customer's sense of gaming excitement and fun. We are
enhancing customer service programmes and introducing a programme to help
customers make choices that best match the entertainment experience they
seek. We must unlock the value growth in the business, while maintaining strict capital management and cost control."

Australian and other New Zealand operations 


SKYCITY's Australian operations continued to deliver sound results. SKYCITY
Adelaide revenues rose 7.5% to $A71 million, boosted by a positive customer
response to the recent refurbishment which helped to drive a 10% increase in
gaming revenues. Earnings before funding and tax (EBIT) grew
10.6% to $A9.4 million.

SKYCITY Darwin continued to benefit from economic and tourism growth. Gaming
and non-gaming growth contributed to a 6.7% revenue increase to $A49.4
million, while EBIT rose 10.4% to $A14.9million.

In New Zealand, SKYCITY Hamilton delivered strong double-digit revenue
growth, up 19% to $19.5 million, boosted by the success of the new 'Zone' bar
and 15% gaming growth. Strict cost management produced EBIT growth of 32% to
$7.4 million.

Christchurch Casino and SKYCITY 


Queenstown both performed in line with expectations.


The SKYCITY Cinemas result has been adversely impacted by a lack of high
quality film product that affected the broader exhibition industry. Cinema
revenues, after accounting for doubling of SKYCITY's ownership interest to
100%, were marginally down at $33 million while overheads increased due to
additional locations and screens. This resulted in a 1H07 EBIT downturn of
$2.4 million to $1.8 million over the comparative period. The release of
higher quality films is expected to lift

SKYCITY Cinema's performance in the second half. 


Going forward, Evan Davies said the management team was intent on maximising
business growth. "The Auckland result has been disappointing and we will be
focusing particular effort in the remainder of the 2007 financial year on
regenerating gaming revenues and tight management of costs in order to
rebuild gaming gross margin performance," Evan Davies said. 


"Across our other business activities, we will concentrate on consolidating
and building value from the strong positions we've established, to ensure we
maximise the potential of our recent capital investment programmes. "



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c Share Investor 2007