Sunday, October 17, 2010

Kiwirail Destined for Big Losses

It is not hard to fathom the politics of most individuals, generally we where our politics on our sleeves and express it by what we say and do.

If you wanted to label me, I am more of a libertarian when it comes to life and focus on the freedom of individuals to be able to get on with their lives without the encumbrance of the State intervening which they just love to do. When it comes to business I know that private enterprise does just about everything better than the State.

Other people who come from the left of the political seesaw like to think that the State is all important and should play a big part in business.

This is the case with Rod Oram, a State lover with a green background and a penchant for promoting the State as a vehicle for the advancement of business and the economy as a whole.

We know of course that private business survives in spite of intervention by the State, rather than because of it and the economy would thrive if the State just simply buggered off and left us to build business and therefore the economy as a whole.

Rod's latest wrong headed opinion comes on the back of his push for taxpayer funded Kiwirail to become a player again in the transportation of freight around the country.

"Faster freight? More customers? A $4.6 billion, 10-year investment plan to make KiwiRail self-sustaining? Who would have thought rail had such a future here? Around the world, rail is enjoying a remarkable renaissance thanks to the economic and environmental benefits when services are well run.

The Swiss, for example, are completing a $12b, 57km rail tunnel under the Alps; the Chinese are building 50,000km of new tracks, much of it for 300km/h trains; and Warren Buffett, one of the world's most strategic investors, has bought the US's largest railroad". Rod Oram, Oct 2010

Like most commentators from the left they like to fudge facts and stretch the truth to misinform those who follow them (sustainable ignorance?) so I will set out to put the record straight.

Unlike Rod I have no political bias, my opinion comes from the point of view anchored in fact.

Rail in fact does not enjoy any major success anywhere in the world except for the investment by Warren Buffett who invested in freight carrier Burlington Northern in 2008. This rail company works because it carries bulk freight over long distances in the United States. When replicated in New Zealand this model, while not as successful, is nonetheless the only part of Kiwirail that works. There are certainly no big economic advantages and its environmental benefits, if there are any, are of little consequence to business.

In every part of the world that rail operates it is heavily subsidised in some way by taxpayers and this is no different in New Zealand.

The purchase of Kiwirail by Labour in 2008 and subsequent injections of capital into the company since then have so far cost the taxpayer close to 2 billion dollars and the drain on the taxpayer purse is only going to continue as the business remains State owned. The company is never going to be self sustainable and Mr Oram himself acknowledges it might take 10 years.

Private freight carriers like Mainfreight Ltd [MFT.NZX] carry the nations freight with far more efficiency than State rail ever will and the fact that the taxpayer is subsidising Kiwirail to try and compete on a level footing is an insult to freight carriers who pride themselves on good service and low costs. They are the backbone of our economy and that will never change unless a more left of centre government decides to try harder to put them out of business.

Kiwirail is highly inefficient. It takes substantially longer to get most goods from a to b and in this day and age of "just in time", inventory management they simply cannot cut it.

We need to be realistic about the status of Kiwirail and its position as a credible part of our economy now and in the future. It is a political wish to have it rather than a practical one and therefore its future will be subject to the machinations of politics, left and right.

The only place it really has in our economy is to move bulk goods like logs and coal to ports for export. Any other part of the network is simply a political wishlist that will waste billions of taxpayer dollars into the future as long as it is owned by the taxpayer.

You need to take this into account when reading Rod's wet dream over rail's future in New Zealand.

Disc I own MFT shares in the Share Investor Portfolio


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c Share Investor 2010

Friday, October 15, 2010

Marketwatch: OceanaGold Corp Ltd



OceanaGold Corp Ltd [OGC.NZX] (also listed on the ASX under OGC.ASX )is a stock that has had an upwards ride with the gold price over the last two years and at $5.05 per share as of close of trade yesterday is trading less than 10% off its 52 week high of $5.41.

It had a good result in its most recently reported quarter but as a highly cyclical company pegged to the gold price investors must be aware that buying the stock at these levels is highly risky given that you would be buying near the peak of the cycle - in my opinion gold is either at or near its peak and one doesn't have to be that bright to figure out that the fortunes and therefore shareprice of this company is going to be negatively affected when the gold price inevitably heads south.

It has recently raised an additional $115.5 million in cash for business activities so cant fund expansion through cashflow or retained earnings and its net return per ounce of gold has reduced due to higher extraction costs. The company hopes to increase profit on the last quarter through a higher gold price.

It might be wise to extract oneself while the share price remains high.


OGC @ Share Investor

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c Share Investor 2010

Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Stock of the Week: Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd



I know some of you might accuse me of favoritism because I have a large position in Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd [SKC.NZX] in the Share Investor Portfolio but go ahead and do your worst. I believe I am being as unbiased as I can be and I will try to argue my case below. I also picked it as a stock of the week in July 2009.

I think this stock is a good buy at current levels and it looks like the market is showing further share price weakness as 2010 progresses but I cant understand why the share price is heading south. The market is sometimes wrong is where I am heading here. Having said that CEO Nigel Morrison has indicated that Australian expansion is on the cards and the company has plans to spend money on expanding their convention centre offering and the company doesn't have a good history under the previous CEO of making these kind of capital spends translate into profits. I think Morrison is a more careful sort of beast when it comes to expansion and the returns expected and made from them.

Its 2010 full year profit was a record one and it looks like its 2011 year is going to top that as well according to Morrison - he is looking for 10% growth. Add the rugby world cup into the mix and 2011 is going to be a great year for the company.

The gross dividend return of 8.41% alone makes the stock a good investment proposition.

The stock has been trading in a tight range of between around $2.80 and $3.05 since May and patient investors will get this stock cheaper if they wait. I am contemplating buying it between $2.70 - $2.80 to use up my dividend pool from 2010.

I believe that the current share price of $2.92 doesn't reflect its good prospects in 2011 and beyond. It is only one of a few stock prices that hasn't significantly improved as many have over the last year, due to perceptions that the economy is doing better and so it is worth looking at.

I also believe the market is discounting the good management of the company for the past two years and it seems it is skeptical that the company can continue to grow profit as it has done under Nigel Morrison.

I think they can.

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c Share Investor 2010

Tuesday, October 12, 2010

Origin Energy asset stripping Contact Energy

Just doing a little bit of research on something else when I got sidetracked by Contact Energy Ltd [CEN.NZX] and it relationship with its ASX listed majority shareholder Origin Energy Ltd [ORG.ASX].

From the financial figures that one can glean from a Thompson First Call research report, one can see that the relationship between the two is one of the master siphoning all the good stuff out of its little cousin.

The reasons for this are rather nasty, deceitful and give the middle finger to minority Contact Energy shareholders.

If we look at the peak profit for the company in the 2005-2008 period of between $281 - $237 million we can see dividend payouts ranging from 18c to 28c per share, but as profit dropped to $118 million in 2009 and $155 million in 2010 the dividend soared to 45c. (see chart below)

Of course Origin, with a 51% stake in Contact gets the majority share of the dividend payout.

Yes I know, as a majority owner Origin are entitled to take this dividend but why would they double it without a corresponding surge in profit?



Well, Origin have made a couple of cheapskate attempts at taking full control of Contact but they couldn't get agreement from minority shareholders on a price. Origin offered lowball figures undervaluing their target and the two attempts ended up floundering in a pool of bad feelings and finger pointing.

Origin are still interested in taking full control of Contact but they do not want to pay full market value (over $10 bucks by my estimation) and who does, so why not try milking the cow until its cash udder becomes so depleted minority shareholders will be begging for Origin to make them an offer.

Just look at Contact's long term debt levels. Surging from $514 million in 2007 to $1279 million in 2010, close to $200 million alone has been added since 2009.

A lot of this debt has been used to develop generation capacity but why would you continue to borrow just to pay massive dividends?

It just doesn't add up.

Contact CEO David Baldwin was appointed by Origin and he has been able to manage the company to Origin's advantage and clearly to the long-term disadvantage of minority shareholders. He has received big bonuses regardless of his company's poor performance.

The share price has been pretty much stagnant for the last 2 years and this is the result of poor performance and a shocker move by Mr Baldwin in 2008 that lost 40,000 customers for the company and led to a plateau in customer numbers that are fixed around the 600,000 mark.

The way Origin are managing Contact is a loser long-term. There is only so long you can milk the company of cash, pile on debt and have the share price stay at current levels.

All indications though are that this is what Origin are doing and they are doing it for cynical reasons.

They want Contact Energy on the cheap.


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c Share Investor 2010