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The scramble for a king-size block of Cadbury PLC [CBRY.LSE] by Kraft Foods Inc [KFT.NYSE] fascinates me. I love business and investing but I have to confess also to be somewhat of a chocoholic - doctor it has been 3 minutes since my last bite. In a protracted bid that has been going since a formal offer by Kraft was made in November 2009 after it telegraphed interes t in the Dairy Milk maker in September the takeover process has been full of harsh words, threats, finger pointing and egos from all sides of the chocolate vat.

Since then Kraft has been rebuffed twice by Cadbury and those harsh words have been flowing like Cadbury Creme eggs between the CEO'S of Kraft and its sweet milky target Cadbury. Meanwhile Kraft's biggest shareholder, Warren Buffett, has issued a press release urging Kraft not to pay too much for the company.

In this sickly mix of nuts and fruits comes interest from just about every major chocolate company in the world. Ferrero Rocher, Nestle', and Hershey have all been on the radar but all seem to have been dismissed as having short pockets or not serious, save for Hershey which seems to be mulling over a formal bid of its own according to some sources.

The problem for Kraft is that Cadbury contend that its shares are worth more than what they are offering and Kraft's bid significantly undervalues the long-term prospects of the company and they will have to increase their bid before the January 19 deadline if they want to take a chip off the Cadbury block.

I have to agree with Cadbury. The company has a strong presense in most parts of the world and its brand and products - no matter what some might think of its sweet milky almost chocolate free taste - dominate the minds of consumers and their sweet ways when they make a decision to buy a quick convenient snack.

This brand awareness has made Cadbury one of the worlds most successful chocolate makers in the past and that is unlikely to change any time soon.

For these reasons alone Kraft need to raise their offer and any other company considering a move on Cadbury must also take into account the company and its fine pedigree.

Warren Buffett, as a 10% holder of Kraft stock, was against Kraft's bid principally because of its intention to issue new shares in Kraft to help pay for the purchase. I have just been reading Warren Buffett on Business: Principles from the Sage of Omaha, a collection of Warren Buffett's letters to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders and he makes it very clear in a number of his letters that he is against the dilutionary effects of such transactions for the predator company if it doesn't present value for the predator. Of course the price paid for the company is a key factor as well and if the price is right for the takeover then the preferred option of purchase for Buffett is cash and preferably non -borrowed cash at that.

Cadbury would be a great company to own. Good cash flows, strong brands with a competitive moat and profit to boot.

Any suitor will have to pay a premium to take control of the purple one and Buffett has stressed he doesn't want Kraft to be that suitor but if he wants a piece of it - and I think he does - then Kraft and any other buyers are going to have to sweeten the deal beyond the current valuations put on Cadbury's assets.

I cant wait for the next move!

Cadbury @ Share Investor

Cadbury could learn a thing or two from 1980's Coca Cola Experiment

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c Share Investor 2010

It is that time of the year, to pick stocks for 2010 and time for my stock picking monkey to come out of a self imposed 12 months hiatus for another stab at the stockmarket pages.

It is a bumper edition this year and I started it 1 week ago in between feeds for my time consuming wee girl - she had no say in what the stock picking monkey chose this year but could be encouraged to throw a dart or two at the end of 2010.

In the face of a global recession, an uncertain economic future that had a big impact at the end of 2008 and continues today, with dwindling share values, even for good assets, it is going to be hard to pick winners for next year.

2009 was a tough year for stocks, perhaps one of the worst in a generation

Please keep in mind dear readers that the picks are my own and they reflect my investment philosophy and not necessarily anyone else's.

My picks are based on a long-term view, regardless of the current short to medium term market turmoil and economic uncertainty.

NB: Since I think most of my portfolio consist of the best stocks on the New Zealand market, I found it difficult to pick stocks outside my realm of self interest.

Picks from the NZX

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
[FPH:NZ]

I will kick off my picks with a company that I consider will be one of the big successes of the next 5-10 years and one I included in the 2008 and 2009 Share Investor stock picks, Fisher and Paykel Healthcare, the health care products provider.

I had it as a pick for 2009 and it has been one of the better performers this year, as it was in 2008, even though it is still well off its highs share price wise.

Company profit forecasts to March 31 2010 have been estimated at NZ$65-70 million - which is down from 2009 - and revenue is also set to grow as it has done for the past decade.

Any significant movement in the value of the NZ dollar means a substantial rise or fall of profit, as the bulk of company revenue are in the US dollar.

Fisher's profits are largely immune from the current market turmoil as buyers simply have to have the products that the health care company makes regardless of a global recession.

A future global player in the sector they operate in.

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare @ Share Investor

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Discuss Fisher & Paykel Healthcare @ Share Investor Forum - Register free

Fletcher Building Ltd
[FBU.NZ]

Fletcher Building has had a tough 2009 and 2010 looks to be a similar year but there is promise in the winds through a shortage of new housing stock in New Zealand and Australia and a large number of infrastructure projects on the go in New Zealand and across the Tasman and a similar list on the books ready to start.

The commercial sector will be a problem for the company but that will be an opportunity for prospective investors in Fletcher to get cheaper stock based on bad news for this sector.

Management haven't given much indication of profit for 2010 except to say that they are happy with analysts indications to the market of NZ$261-340 million. At their Nov 2009 AGM Directors indicated uncertainty in their business for the coming year.

Accumulate on share price weakness of which there will be for this stock in 2010.

Fletcher Building @ Share Investor

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Discuss Fletcher Building @ Share Investor Forum - Register free

The Warehouse Group
[WHS.NZ]

Retail has been tough in New Zealand and globally over the last 16 months but there are signs that retail in NZ is on the improve.

The Warehouse has had a year of stagnant growth but has seen a slight improvement over the last half year when it even advanced a special dividend to its shareholders.

This confidence by management will only be underpinned by tangible results over the all important 2009 Christmas shopping period and any increase on last year will be a sign that improvement could be on the cards for 2010.

This stock is a good long term play and any increase in sales and cashflow will benefit shareholders with increased dividends.

An added bonus is that the company is still in play to some extent pending a decision by either Foodstuffs or Woolworths Australia making an official bid for the company.

Accumulate on weakness.

The Warehouse Group @ Share Investor

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Discuss this topic @ Share Investor Forum - Register free

Sky City Entertainment Group
[SKC.NZ]

Xero Ltd is a company in a state of transition. At present this online accounting software company is a niche player in an industry dominated by global players like Quicken and MYOB and appears to be gradually increasing its customer base among a very loyal following of clients.

Those in the tech industry who know intimately what the company does and how it does it say it is a company to look out for and that it could be well a big player in time to come. I have no idea whether that is true or not but the buzz created by this company within the industry is something that should be taken notice of.

It has yet to make any money but those in the know say it is close to breaking even and should start to see some profit in the next few years.

It is presently building its customer base to get "critical mass".

If those insiders are right 2010 could be a good year for this company and early buyers might be in for a windfall should the company succeed.

Buy on weakness and if you are ready for a bit of risk with a 50/50 shot.

Discuss this stock @ Share Investor Forum - Register free

Xero @ Share Investor

Stock of the Week: Xero Ltd
Love Xero?

Contact Energy Ltd
[CEN.NZ]

Contact Energy Ltd has had the year to end all years in 2009, with their FY profit in 2009 down by 50% to NZ$117 million. It has been a stinker but there is sunshine on the cloudy horizon.

A CEO gaffe at the end of 2008 led to the loss of over 40000 customers and weather was also against the company, affecting bulk power prices and increasing running costs because of the use of more expensive generation.

These things are unlikely to occur again in 2010, more customers have come back to Contact and management appear to be focused on cutting business costs. Management will give no indication of 2010 profit but it is likely to be higher than 2009 unless something unexpected should visit them.

With the share price at the time of writing well below NZ$6 the company is a relative bargain considering its long term prospects for growth and the possibility that the company is still a target of Origin Energy Ltd [ORG.NZ], its Australian majority owner.

Buy on weakness should you be interested in any listed NZX utility.

Contact @ Share Investor

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Discuss this stock @ Share Investor Forum - Register free

Mainfreight Ltd
[MFT.NZ]

Mainfreight is a dominant player in the logistics sector in Australasia and has businesses in North America and Asia. It has designs on becoming a global logistics player and has surpassed 1 billion in revenue this year. It has a stated aim of doubling in size over the next 3-5 years.

It is one of the best managed companies listed on the NZX.

Mainfreight has had a bad 2009 by its own admission, with profit significantly down and its share price has suffered as a result. There were signs in the last quarter of 2009 though that things were picking up and Mainfreight is likely to a benefactor of any improvement in global trade, especially in their United States operations.

2010 is by no means going to be one of the best years for Mainfreight but it is more than likely that they will come back stronger than any other business sector if global trade improves as they were one of the first and hardest hit when the downturn came.

Mainfreight is a good barometer as to the health of the rest of the economy and if you are looking for one of the best long term investments on the NZX this is it.

Buy on any weakness with a view to hold a minimum of 5 years for superior returns.

Mainfreight @ Share Investor

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Discuss Mainfreight @ Share Investor Forum - Register free

Picks from the ASX

Caltex Australia Ltd
[CTX.AX]

Caltex Australia Ltd is Australia's largest refiner of oil and oil based products and has one of Australia's largest networks of filling stations.

Its share price has suffered over 2009 but the company still remains a dominant player in its sector with good long term potential for recovery.

The retail sector for petrol in Australia is undergoing consolidation at the moment and Caltex could be set to benefit if its bid for Mobil retail sites in that country can overcome competition watchdogs.

Buy on weakness for good long term gains.

Discuss Caltex @ Share Investor Forum - Register free

Coca Cola Amatil
[CCL.AX]

Coca Cola Amatil is the dominant player in the carbonated drinks market in Australasia. It sells its iconic Coca Cola brand as well as a large number of other well known brands in New Zealand, Australia, Indonesia, Fiji and a number of other markets in this part of the world. Their 5 year financials to 2007 show a steady increase in revenue and profit and their 2008 Annual Report shows a record profit of just over AU$ 400 million on strong revenue growth.

A strong history of profits can be a good sign that there is more to come in the future and the fact that its customers are largely addicted to its products makes this company a great long term bet.

Buy on any weakness for superior long-term returns.

Coca Cola @ Share Investor

Coke is it!

Discuss Coca Cola @ Share Investor Forum - Register free

Domino's Pizza Enterprizes Ltd
[DMP.AX]

Domino's Australia has had a great 2009. It increased store numbers by 35 to 776 and also increased profit in 2009 by 29% to AU$15.4 million.

DMP is the dominant pizza chain in Australia and New Zealand and has grown considerably since its May 2005 listing on the ASX. The company also has 250 odd stores in 3 European markets.

While the company has been growing well in Australasia during the global recession their stores in France, Belgium and the Netherlands have been powering ahead.

Same store sales have increased across their various markets and costs have been carefully managed.

Management have an aggressive approach to expansion and have manged to achieve this growth without incurring any significant debt or diluting the all important same store sales.

Dominos @ Share Investor

Dominos poised for another slice of Pizza Hut
Domino's Australia Dominant in Australasia
The dots get the hots

Discuss Dominos @ Share Investor Forum - Register free

Other notable quotables

NZX

Auckland International Airport [AIA.NZ] A good monopoly at historically cheap prices.

Kathmandu Holdings Ltd [KMD.NZ] A new listing from end of 2009. Value below NZ$1.50.

Port of Tauranga [POT.NZ] New Zealand's leading port company with good upside on increased exports.

Michael Hill International [MHI.NZ] A very well managed jewelry chain poised for global expansion.

New Zealand Refining [NZR.NZ] The country's only refiner of oil products, it is currently having a bad second half year. The share price should recover on a lower Kiwi dollar and therefore better margins, an increased global demand for oil and refurbished, expanded plant closed in September 2009.

Telecom NZ [TEL.NZ] Value in the company as a hedge against investment inflation. Dividends are over 10% net PA at current share prices (low NZ$2.30 - 2.50 range) and stock worth buying at these low levels for the return and a possible recovery in share price.

Nasdaq

Yum ! Brands Inc [YUM.NASDAQ] A target of 10% sales growth for 2010 after a 15% profit growth in 2009 and more good growth to come from China make this company a tasty treat.

Conclusion

2010 should be a better year for stocks than the anus horribilusness of 2009 although it is by no means any guarantee that a good year should follow a bad one except to say some confidence seems to have entered the stockmarket, albeit with a tinge of nervousness over the uncertainty of what is exactly happening to the global economy - is it getting better, or is it going to get worse, who the hell is right?

I think there is more bad news in relation to the global economy to come, but that is only my opinion.

That aside if you can, some listed companies have done well in 2009 and will continue to do so in 2010 but others will find the going tough as credit lines are exhausted and interest rates rise.

There are a number of companies that have had a poor or hum drum 2009 and any real upturn in the global economy will see a better 2010.

If there is no upturn in the economy, stockmarket share price weakness will have me poised to buy further shares in some of the companies I own in the Share Investor Portfolio with any surplus cash rather than with borrowed funds. I am also looking at buying Coca Cola Amatil [CCL.AX] and Yum! Brands [YUM.NASDAQ] shares on weakness, which would be my first foray into international shares - 1000 Coke and 250 Yum!

Remember, the stocks I have picked above are based on my investment criteria and may not fit yours or of course you could have a different opinion. I would love to hear your opinion and any picks you may have.

Have a look at what I have to say, take it on board or not and then do your own research to see if you might agree with me.

Lastly, I wish you all good luck and a prosperous 2010, we could all use it!

**Just an added footnote. Please feel free to post your own stock picks for 2010. The only requirement is that you say why and declare any financial interest. Post them below at the bottom of this piece or click here.

Disclosure : I own FPH, FBU, WHS, SKC, MFT, AIA shares in the Share Investor Portfolio.

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c Share Investor 2009 - 2010

Share Investor

Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Stock of the Week - Reprise : The Warehouse Group

Sunday, January 17, 2010

Bitter - Sweet Chocolate Business

Friday, January 15, 2010

Share Investor's 2010 Stock Picks

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