Share Investor's 2009 Stock Picks

It is that time of the year to pick stocks for 2009.

In the face of a global recession, an uncertain economic future and dwindling values, even for good assets, it is going to be hard to pick winners.

Please keep in mind dear readers that the picks are my own and they reflect my investment philosophy and not necessarily anyone else's.

My picks are based on a long-term view, regardless of the current short to medium term market turmoil and economic uncertainty.



Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
[FPH:NZ]



With that in mind I will kick off my picks with a company that I consider will be one of the big successes of the next 5-10 years, Fisher and Paykel Healthcare, the health care products provider.

I had it as a pick for 2008 and it has been one of the better performers this year, even though it is still well off its highs share price wise.

Company profit forecasts to March 31 2009 have been estimated at NZ$84 million and revenue is also set to grow as it has done for the past.

Fisher profits are largely immune from the current market turmoil as buyers simply have to have the products that the health care company makes regardless of a global recession.

This invincibility from outside economic influences makes the pick for my next stock a relative no-brainer.

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare @ Share Investor

Stock of the Week: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
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Drinking and Trading
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Share Investor's 2009 stock picks
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FPH downgrade masks good performance

Discuss Fisher & Paykel Healthcare @ Share Investor Forum - Register free 



Ryman Healthcare 
[RYM:NZ]



Ryman Healthcare, the retirement home operator, carer and developer, has been increasing revenue and profit for many years and the most current profit result shows that there has been no let up in this trend with a rise of 10% to NZ$25.9 million.

Development of new villages has increased apace over the last year and there are at least half a dozen new ones ready to go at beginning 2009, including two massive villages at Orewa and Whangerei.

The long-term prospects for this company are excellent as New Zealands elderly are set to grow markedly in the future.

Metlifecare [MET:NZ], Rymans major listed competitor is also worth a look at for the same reasons as Ryman.

I have Metlifecare on my watchlist.


Ryman Healthcare @ Share Investor

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Share Investor Q & A: Reader Questions to Ryman CFO Gordon Macleod
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Discuss Ryman Healthcare @ Share Investor Forum - Register free 


Mainfreight Ltd
[MFT:NZ]



Mainfreight Ltd, the New Zealand global logistics operator, have a goal of NZ$1 billion in revenue before 2010 and are only a gnats whisker short of that figure.

It is on my pick list again for 2009 as it is New Zealands best managed company and if management is good then results generally follow-this has been the history of the company thus far.

Currently business is experiencing a slow down, although profit was up nearly 10% in the last reporting period.

Management are going to approach the global market downturn with a "prudent, cautious approach to costs"-the status quo for the business since its inception.


Mainfreight @ Share Investor

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A rare breed



Pumpkin Patch Ltd 
[PPL.NZ]

N/A

One of the worst performing stocks of 2008 if you consider a 60% odd drop in share price this year and a drop of nearly 30% in full-year after tax profit to July 31 2008.

All is not lost though!

The company has great long-term potential, with excellent product a strong brand and very loyal customers and with the share price at just over a buck it is a relative bargain when one considers it was trading at nearly 5 dollars just over a year ago.

One to stock up on during price dips and it probably will when pre-Christmas sales figures come through during the beginning of 2009.




Pumpkin Patch @ Share Investor

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Other quotable notables.

Telecom NZ [TEL:NZ] for its dividend. Buy around $2.

Contact Energy [CEN:NZ], Trustpower [TPW:NZ] and Vector[VCT:NZ] Any infrastructure company, especially these electricity companies are a good buy at any time but battered share prices are a good opportunity to stock up on more or make a first buy.

Auckland International Airport[AIA:NZ] A near monopoly with a beaten down stock price, buy on further weakness.

Westpac [WBC:NZ] and ANZ Bank [ANZ:NZ]. Good opportunities exist to buy at low stock prices.

If you have the nerve, any good company is going cheap in 2009 so there are plenty of companies worth buying.

Pick wisely!


Disclosure: I own RYM, FPH, PPL, AIA, and MFT shares


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c Share Investor 2008

The Headliner: A suck up to my mysterious benefactor

To the mysterious benefactor who sent me a copy of The Headliner today a million thanks.

I have read your publication of biz stories on many occasions but at Albany Whitcoulls and Borders (one and the same nowadays) I cant find it.

The December 11 issue has several interesting articles:

Postie Plus [PPG.NZ]-A resurgence in the tiny retailers fortunes.

Ryman Healthcare [RYM.NZ]-Good prospects for long-term growth

Smaller pieces on Hanover Finance, Nuplex, Delegats, The Warehouse, Pike River and some very interesting stock picks.

The Headliner is frequently on the mark and a good read, albeit too brief.

Quality not quantity I guess.

Anyway to my mysterious benefactor, you know my address, please keep it coming.


Disclosure: I own Ryman, Postie Plus & The Warehouse shares.


Related Links

Subscribe to The Headliner @ Headliner.co.nz
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c Share Investor 2008

90 day employment probation period good for NZ Inc

The legislation currently under consideration in the New Zealand house of representatives, as I write this, to enable a 90 day probation period for employers and employees for businesses of 20 workers and under is being rushed under urgency, so it can be allowed to be put into place April 1 2009. It is a good law and has come at a time in history when it is needed more than ever.

For many years, especially the last 9 of the Labour Government, employers have been put under the thumb by unscrupulous employees and deleterious employment law and have suffered undue stress from malicious and frivolous employment claims brought by disgruntled employees simply because they have not fit the purpose of employment, have not fit in with the company culture or other employees or have attempted to get away with theft, fraud or unacceptable behaviour in the workplace.

This has put small businesses on the back foot, has cost them money and time training sub-par workers and as a result productivity, profit and business growth has fallen.

It has simply been too hard to expand your small business and employing extra workers for this expansion has been a burden many small businesses simply do not want to face because of the possibility of being slapped with an employment fine by a litigious employee.

With a probation period of 90 days it provides opportunity and choice for new employees rather than the deleterious effects that the Labour opposition say it will have and employers will have the ability to easily grow their businesses and therfore our economy.

The ability for employers and employees to negotiate the terms of the probation before employment then sit down and discuss outcomes after 90 days will enable a better fit for both employer and employee.

If either the employer or employee do not get on or their are any problems both parties can mutually agree to walk away with no repercussions for either. Easy, quick, cheap and ultimately good for small business because the hiring and firing process is the key to a good start in the employer/employee relationship.

Small business is at the heart of the New Zealand economy and it is going to suffer more than ever over the next year or two.

Making changes to employment law such as this, along with a National Government promised simplification of red tape, tax law and heavy handed government regulation will help cushion the blow of the 1999-2008 Labour Government engineered recession we are currently experiencing and the bigger downturn to come due to global financial effects.

Employees have to remember that it is employers that take on the risk when running a business. Money is borrowed, mortgages are taken over personal property and the risk of getting unsuitable employees weighs heaving on their minds. Without the business employees simply wouldn't be able to make a living.

Of course one hopes that this is a reciprocal arrangement with benefits on both sides but we mustn't forget who the boss is.

This 90 day probation law has been a long time coming. Most other western nations have such a law and it is no accident of statistics that New Zealand has one of the lowest productivity ratings(and falling) of any of those nations.

The economy needs this law to complement other companion legislation to be passed to make our industry and economy grow sustainably again and its urgency is necessary because we have to do everything we can quickly to ameliorate the current world financial crises and associated economic fallout.

If we don't act now future generations will be berating us for sleeping while our economy burned.

Lets embrace freedom of choice, the ability to be flexible in employment issues and therefore the opportunity to work towards the future in a more efficient and productive way.

To do otherwise is simply socialist dogma with as much promise and future as a rat with venereal disease.

New Zealand has suffered under that regime for 9 years and today's urgency in Parliament is but one counter to that to redress the balance in favour of commonsense and a brighter future for all.

Related Amazon reading

Agenda for Reform: The Future of Employment Relationships and the Law by William B. Gould, IV Buy new: $27.00 / Used from: $1.95 Usually ships in 24 hours

International Human Resource Management by Peter J. Dowling Buy used from: $12.75

c Political Animal & Share Investor 2008

90 day employment probation period good for NZ Inc

The legislation currently under consideration in the New Zealand house of representatives, as I write this, to enable a 90 day probation period for employers and employees for businesses of 20 workers and under is being rushed under urgency, so it can be allowed to be put into place April 1 2009. It is a good law and has come at a time in history when it is needed more than ever.

For many years, especially the last 9 of the Labour Government, employers have been put under the thumb by unscrupulous employees and deleterious employment law and have suffered undue stress from malicious and frivolous employment claims brought by disgruntled employees simply because they have not fit the purpose of employment, have not fit in with the company culture or other employees or have attempted to get away with theft, fraud or unacceptable behaviour in the workplace.

This has put small businesses on the back foot, has cost them money and time training sub-par workers and as a result productivity, profit and business growth has fallen.

It has simply been too hard to expand your small business and employing extra workers for this expansion has been a burden many small businesses simply do not want to face because of the possibility of being slapped with an employment fine by a litigious employee.

With a probation period of 90 days it provides opportunity and choice for new employees rather than the deleterious effects that the Labour opposition say it will have and employers will have the ability to easily grow their businesses and therfore our economy.

The ability for employers and employees to negotiate the terms of the probation before employment then sit down and discuss outcomes after 90 days will enable a better fit for both employer and employee.

If either the employer or employee do not get on or their are any problems both parties can mutually agree to walk away with  no repercussions for either. Easy, quick, cheap and ultimately good for small business because the hiring and firing process is the key to a good start in the employer/employee relationship.

Small business is at the heart of the New Zealand economy and it is going to suffer more than ever over the next year or two.

Making changes to employment law such as this, along with a National Government promised simplification of red tape, tax law and heavy handed government regulation will help cushion the blow of the 1999-2008 Labour Government engineered recession we are currently experiencing and the bigger downturn to come due to global financial effects.

Employees have to remember that it is employers that take on the risk when running a business. Money is borrowed, mortgages are taken over personal property and the risk of getting unsuitable employees weighs heaving on their minds. Without the business employees simply wouldn't be able to make a living.

Of course one hopes that this is a reciprocal arrangement with benefits on both sides but we mustn't forget who the boss is.

This 90 day probation law has been a long time coming. Most other western nations have such a law and it is no accident of statistics that New Zealand has one of the lowest productivity ratings(and falling) of any of those nations.

The economy needs this law to complement other companion legislation to be passed to make our industry and economy grow sustainably again and its urgency is necessary because we have to do everything we can quickly to ameliorate the current world financial crises and associated economic fallout.

If we don't act now future generations will be berating us for sleeping while our economy burned.

Lets embrace freedom of choice, the ability to be flexible in employment issues and therefore the opportunity to work towards the future in a more efficient and productive way.

To do otherwise is simply socialist dogma with as much promise and future as a rat with venereal disease.

New Zealand has suffered under that regime for 9 years and today's urgency in Parliament is but one counter to that to redress the balance in favour of commonsense and a brighter future for all.

Related Amazon reading

Agenda for Reform: The Future of Employment Relationships and the Law by William B. Gould, IV  Buy new: $27.00 / Used from: $1.95 Usually ships in 24 hours

International Human Resource Management by Peter J. Dowling  Buy used from: $12.75

c Political Animal & Share Investor 2008