NZX Hangover from 1999 possible

Looking at charts for the beginning my Long vs Short series I got a bit sidetracked-but still related- as you can on the internet and found to my horror that the chart for the NZSX50 index for the last 10 years(above) looks like the kind of chart that would plot the course of the Hindenburg shortly before it crashed.

To be fair the New Zealand stockmarket pretty much reflects the sad performance of the Dow Jones index when you compare the 5 year chart (below) but when you look back a further 5 years that is when things look as ugly as Paris Hilton having it off with her shih tzu.

The NZSX50 is currently at early 2005 levels and only has 800 points further to fall to get back to 1999 levels. It has lost 750 points in the last 3 months, so it is not beyond the bounds that our index will be having a flashback hangover early 2009 inspired by New Years Eve 1999.

Time to resurrect Prince.






Related Links

NZX50
NZX 15
NZX 50 Portfolio
NZX SmallCap
NZX MidCap
NZX Blog

Related Amazon reading

New Zealand Investor Monthly
Buy new: $53.70


c Share Investor 2008

Long vs Short: Mainfreight Ltd

In the first of a series of 17, I am going to take look at the chart comparisons for stocks from the Share Investor Portfolio when comparing the 10 year return (above) to the turmoil of the last year with a 1 year return chart (bottom of post).

In this series I want to show the merits of investing, using charts, for the long-term vs short term gains or losses. I will use the longest available data to me for the long-term view and will compare against the NZX50.

The first stock we will look at is Mainfreight Ltd [MFT.NZ] the global logistics company.

As one can see from the two large comparison charts if you have been a Mainfreight stockholder for 10 years your return has been over 300%. A magnificent return by anyone's standards.

Conversely if you look at the one year chart and bought Mainfreight a year ago your return is negative 30%.

Symbol	Price	Value	Earned
MFT.NZ	$4.80	$15000	$-7218.75
You own 3125 [MFT.NZ] shares purchased at $7.11 [$22218.75]

I have held Mainfreight shares for 2 years and as you can see from the chart above my 2 year return is around negative 33%.

Clearly the long-term view is the winner here and I would contend that if I hold for another 8 years the opportunity to gain similar returns to the last ten remains only if I continue to remain a shareholder.

I will also guess at this point that the next 16 posts in this series will show a similar story.

Keep checking back to see if my hunch is wrong!




Related Share Investor Reading

Why did you buy that stock? [Mainfreight Ltd]
Mainfreight 2008 Annual report worth reading
KiwiRail will cost Mainfreight
Mainfreight keeps on truckin
A rare breed
Share Investor's 2008 stock picks


Shareinvestorforum.com- Discuss this Share Investor Post



Related Amazon reading



A Beginner's Guide to Charting Financial Markets: A Practical Introduction to Technical Analysis for Investors by Michael Kahn
Buy new: $15.63 / Used from: $14.73
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c Share Investor 2008

Share Investor now at Findata

The guy in charge of content at Findata asked me to contribute some pieces for that site and so you can now find teasers of blogs from the Share Investor Blog if you are already a member of that site.

No money has passed under the table-mores the pity-so I am still going to be my occasionally objectionable self and "criticise" those individuals that don't pass financial muster.

The "community" part of the site is new but I have been using the data, news and analysis part of Findata for nearly a year.

Go take a look and if you like what I have to say ask the cheapskates there if they can pay me for my occasional gems of wisdom.

While I am here I highly recommend a blog called Trading Goddess It is irreverent, insightful, sexy and on the ball-give it a go why don't ya!


Related Links

Share Investor @ Findata
Findata
Trading Goddess Blog


c Share Investor 2008

Long-term gain, short term pain

The 3 month chart for Sky City Entertainments stock price doesn't tell the full story.
As a long-term investment it has managed to hold up well during one of history's
greatest market downturns.


OK readers, this piece isn't about Sky City it is about the benefits of investing for the long-term.

My critics-and I have quite a few because not everyone has the same approach to investing- would say holding onto shares long-term is a losers game and while every share in my portfolio is currently losing money, except for Fisher and Paykel Healthcare, ASB Preference shares and Sky City Entertainment [SKC.NZ]- Fisher and Paykel was added to and ASB Prefs have only been in the portfolio for a short term, Sky City was the first share in the portfolio and has been the base since its inception in 2002.

I would silence my critics simply by saying my Sky City holding has still remained positive during one of histories great market downturns and that is simply because it has been in my portfolio for a reasonable time.

Granted, the stockmarket has further to fall but Sky City has been the bedrock of the Share Investor Portfolio and will continue to provide a safety net in the current market turmoil.

My other losing stocks will recover-a couple may fail entirely-and looking at the long-term again (and I would contend that you must) they will provide a good return for my hard earned shekels.

Keep in mind if you are brave enough (some would say stupid but not me)to buy stocks in the next few months that your stocks may fall further in prices but as long as you have done your research and picked a solid company you will come out the winner in the long-run.


Related Share Investor reading

Why did you buy that stock? [Sky City Entertainment]
Long-term portfolio view wins the investing battle
10 Basic Buffett questions to ask before investing

Related Amazon reading



The Standard & Poor's Guide to Long-term Investing: 7 Keys to Building Wealth by Joseph Tigue
Buy new: $11.96 / Used from: $0.67
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c Share Investor 2008