Share Investor: Long vs Short

Showing posts with label Long vs Short. Show all posts

Tuesday, October 4, 2016

Sky City: Time to Double Down

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Long VS Short: Fletcher Building Ltd

In this tenth installment of the Long vs Short series I am once again going to take look at the chart comparisons for a stock from the Share Investor Portfolio and compare the 10 year return (above chart) to the turmoil of the last year with a 1 year return chart (large chart at bottom of post).

In this series I want to show the merits of investing, using charts, for the long-term vs short term gains or losses. I will use the longest available data to me for the long-term view (10 years )and will make a comparison against the NZX50.

In this installment of Long vs Short I will look at Fletcher Building Ltd [FBU.NZ].

I currently hold 1114 Fletcher Building shares in the Share Investor Portfolio, the bulk of which I have owned since November 2006. (see small chart below for detail)

The company has been a very good performer with great returns and is still going OK under current tough economic conditions.

Symbol	Price	Value	Earned
FBU.NZ	$7.290	$8087.64	$-615.69

You own 1114 [FBU.NZ] shares purchased at $7.81 [$8703.33]

In my 2.5 years of owning this share my return has been a loss of just over 7 %. This includes dividends and tax credits.(see small chart above)

If I had bought this share just a year ago (see large chart at bottom) my return would have been a 34% loss, with a loss of 50% as recent as March 2009.

Now for the real point of this comparison, lets look at the return for Fletcher Building shareholders who have held the stock for 10 years. (see large chart above)

From a high of a 450% return at the end of 2007, the 10 year return as of writing is still around 200%. All those dividends plus tax credits and time has given the long termers another win.

This series has yet to return a positive for short term investors.

Disc I own a small FBU holding in the Share Investor Portfolio

Fletcher Building @ Share Investor

Fletcher Building's Commercial arm keeps their head above the tunnel
Sweetheart deal for Fletcher Building's Friends
Fletcher House built on hard times
Fletcher Building down tools in the short term
Why did you buy that stock? [Fletcher Building Ltd]
A solid foundation for the future
Fletcher Bu ilding raises profit through canny management
Fletcher's got game

Discuss this Stock @ Share Investor Forum

Long vs Short Series

Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Michael Hill International
Auckland International Airport
Freightways Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Mainfreight Ltd
The Warehouse Group
Sky City Entertainment

c Share Investor 2009

Saturday, July 18, 2009

Long VS Short: Ryman Healthcare Ltd

In this ninth installment of the Long vs Short series I am once again going to take look at the chart comparisons for a stock from the Share Investor Portfolio and compare the 10 year return (above chart) to the turmoil of the last year with a 1 year return chart

In this series I want to show the merits of investing, using charts, for the long-term vs short term gains or losses. I will use the longest available data to me for the long-term view (10 years )and will make a comparison against the NZX50.

In this installment of Long vs Short I will look at Ryman Healthcare [RYM.NZ].

I currently hold 5000 Ryman Healthcare shares in the Share Investor Portfolio which I have owned since November 2006. (see small chart below for detail)

The company has been a very good performer with great returns and is still doing well under current tough economic conditions.

In my 2.5 years of owning this share my return has been a loss of around 17.5%. This includes dividends and tax credits.

If I had bought this share just a year ago my return would have been a 35% loss.

Now for the real point of this comparison lets look at the return for Ryman Healthcare shareholders who have held the stock for 10 years.

From a high of a 450% return at the end of 2007 the 10 year return as of writing is still around 180%. All those dividends plus tax credits and time has given the long termers another win.

Ryman Healthcare @ Share Investor

Why Did you buy that Stock? [Ryman Healthcare]
Time for retirement?

Discuss this Stock @ Share Investor Forum

Long vs Short Series

Michael Hill International
Auckland International Airport
Freightways Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Mainfreight Ltd
The Warehouse Group
Sky City Entertainment

c Share Investor 2009

Friday, June 26, 2009

Long VS Short : Auckland International Airport

In this eight installment of the Long vs Short series I am once again going to take look at the chart comparisons for a stock from the Share Investor Portfolio and compare the 10 year return (chart above) to the turmoil of the last year with a 1 year return chart (large chart at bottom of post).

In this series I want to show the merits of investing, using charts, for the long-term vs short term gains or losses. I will use the longest available data to me for the long-term view (10 years )and will make a comparison against the NZX50.

In this segment of Long vs Short I will take a look at Auckland International Airport Ltd [AIA.NZ] .

I currently hold 3000 Auckland Airport shares after buying 1000 of them in November 2006 and 2000 in April of this year. (see small chart below for detail)

My Portfolio
Symbol	Price	Value	Earned
AIA.NZ	$1.600	$4800	$-540

You own 3000 [AIA.NZ] shares purchased at $1.78 [$5340]

This stock has been performing well fundamentally over the last 10 years and steady over the last 12 months. Its share price though has been fluctuating wildly over the last few years. From a high of over $3.60 during a competing bid to seize control of the company in 2007-2008 to $1.54 recently.

If I had held this stock for the full 10 years (see large chart at top) my return would have been a whopping 210%-including dividends, tax credits and minus brokerage, the NZX is a gross index of stocks.

By comparison if I had held the stock for just this last year (see large chart below) my return would have been a loss of just over 35%.

My total return after 2.5 years or so of holding AIA stock is a loss of just under 10% (see small chart above) That is after dividends and tax credits are added and brokerage applied, not bad considering the market drubbing of every listed NZX share but there is an 8c gain from the 2000 shares I bought in April at $1.70 each.

Having said that this exercise proves, once again, that the long-term bet is the only one to take.

Long-term, 8 in this series, short term 0.

http://chart.bigcharts.com/custom/fairfax-com-nz/chart.asp?rnd=0.3338466193181723&style=2242&symb=AIA&size=1&type=64&time=1yr&freq=1dy&comp=&compidx=NZ50G%7E1392984&ma=&maval=&lf=&lf2=&lf3=&uf=16384&arrowdates=&arrowlegend=&country=NZ&sid=162937

Long vs Short Series

Michael Hill International
Freightways Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Mainfreight Ltd
The Warehouse Group
Sky City Entertainment

Auckland International Airport @ Share Investor

Auckland Airport needs main focus on its core business
Marketwatch - Auckland International Airport
Why did you buy that stock: Auckland International Airport
Cullen's move on Auckland Airport has far reaching effects
Cullen's move on AIA tax plan Anti-Business
AIA profit stays grounded
Softening opposition to CPPIB bid for AIA
Directors of AIA bribe brokers not to sell
What is Auckland Airport worth to you?
Second bite at AIA by CPPIB might just fly
AIA new directors must focus on shareholders
Auckland Airport merger deal nosedives
The Canadians have landed
AIA incentive scheme must fly out the window
Government market manipulation over AIA/DAE deal
DAE move on AIA: Will it fly?

Discuss this stock @ Share Investor Forum

Related Links

AIA Financial Data

Related Amazon Reading

The SmartMoney Guide to Long-Term Investing: How to Build Real Wealth for Retirement and Future Goals by Nellie S. Huang
Buy new: $24.95 / Used from: $0.01
Usually ships in 24 hours

c Share Investor 2009

Thursday, May 14, 2009

Long VS Short: Michael Hill International

In this seventh installment of the Long vs Short series I am once again going to take look at the chart comparisons for a stock from the Share Investor Portfolio and compare the 10 year return (above chart) to the turmoil of the last year with a 1 year return chart (large chart at bottom of post).

In this series I want to show the merits of investing, using charts, for the long-term vs short term gains or losses. I will use the longest available data to me for the long-term view (10 years )and will make a comparison against the NZX50.

In this segment of Long vs Short I will take a look at Michael Hill International Ltd [MHI.NZ] .

I currently hold 3000 Michael Hill shares after buying them in November 2007 (see small chart below for detail) I added a further 7000 in July 2009.

The company has been a spectacular performer over its 25 year plus history, growing from just one store to more than 200. Its returns to shareholders have been similarly spectacular but have tapered off over the last year due to the world-wide recession.


Symbol	Price	Value	Earned
MHI.NZ	$0.620	$1860	$-807

You own 3000 [MHI.NZ] shares purchased at $.889 [$2667]

In my 18 months of owning this share my return has been a loss of $807 or around 30% (see small chart above)This includes dividends and tax credits.

If I had bought this share just a year ago (see large chart at bottom) my return would have been exactly the same as my 18 month return of a 30% loss.

Now for the real point of this comparison lets look at the return for Michael Hill shareholders who have held the stock for 10 years. (see large chart above)

From a high of a 450% return in 2007 the 10 year return as of writing is still around 240%.

That beats my holding return and the one year return by 270%!

Yet another point made that when it comes to long VS short term investing, long beats short like it has its hands tied behind its back.

http://chart.bigcharts.com/custom/fairfax-com-nz/chart.asp?rnd=0.3338466193181723&style=2242&symb=mhi&size=1&type=64&time=1yr&freq=1dy&comp=&compidx=NZ50G%7E1392984&ma=&maval=&lf=&lf2=&lf3=&uf=16384&arrowdates=&arrowlegend=&country=NZ&sid=162937

Michael Hill @ Share Investor

Michael Hill TV3 60 Minutes Interview
Stock of the Week: Michael Hill International
MICHAEL HILL - Toughen Up: What I've Learned about the tough times
Michael Hill: Interview with Ian Fraser
Marketwatch: Michael Hill International
Michael Hill's profit shines
Michael Hill takes on the windy city
Why did you buy that stock? [Michael Hill International]
MHI has defined growth strategy
MHI profit sparkles

Discuss this Stock @ Share Investor Forum

Long vs Short Series

Auckland International Airport
Freightways Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Mainfreight Ltd
The Warehouse Group
Sky City Entertainment

Related Amazon Reading

Investing for the Long-Term (Market Strategies) by Robert Linggard
Buy new: $20.90 / Used from: $14.66
Usually ships in 6 days

The Complete Guide to Investing in Short Term Trading: How to Earn High Rates of Returns Safely by Alan Northcott
Buy new: $16.47 / Used from: $12.47
Usually ships in 24 hours

c Share Investor 2009

Saturday, April 11, 2009

Tortoise VS Hare: Tortoise wins again

Long VS short, there just aint no contest!

Yeah, I know, I know, he is going to bang on again about the merits of long term investing over short term.

Absolutely, it is a good subject and important if you want to make money well into the future. Invest in a good business, it will have its highs and lows performance wise regardless of its share price and the odds are better than a short term punt that you will be happier in the end.

I am motivated to write this column because of my sustained interest in Warren Buffett and his investment style; buy a great company for a good price and never sell it.

Recent developments for Buffett have seen his Berkshire Hathaway company lose money, lose share price and Berkshire losing its high credit rating a few days ago.

That has seen his critics lather at the mouth to come out and critique his recent moves to buy stocks and spend money rather than do the opposite I presume.

One virulent critic has been Doug Kass and he has been shorting Berkshire stock over the last year.

But surprize, surprize being the short term thinker he his today he came out and did a complete 180 degree flip flop, Doug is buying Berkshire stock for his long term draw!

This from Doug:

"When conditions change, as they appear to be doing now -- see this morning's Wells Fargo (WFC Quote) news -- opinions must change, and opportunities must be embraced. This is especially true in the case of Berkshire Hathaway as the considerations that led to my shorting of Berkshire Hathaway's shares at around $145,000 a share have now reversed, and, with the shares today trading under $90,000 a share, I have begun to accumulate a long position in Berkshire Hathaway".

Doug could have bought Berkshire at $74,100 in November and again in February 2009 at $73,677.30.

But if you looked at Buffett's move when "his" Wells Fargo bought the basket case Wachovia last year, as a long term investment, you might have had the fortitude to buy Berkshire stock thinking Well's management might know what they were actually doing.

Kass even advocated buying Wells Fargo last November, but not Berkshire Hathaway stock, which owned around a 7% stake in the company according to filings last December. Wells is now one of Americas largest banks.

Berkshire has been the owner or part-owner of many global brands and added more recently.

Kass could have had a stake in all of these cheaply for a long term recovery but only picked one.

The purchase of debt or stock in Harley Davidson, Tiffany, Goldman Sachs, General Electric and a number of other smaller and some larger purchases over the last 12 months also look to pay off as the economy inevitably recovers in the long term.

Oh how the tortoise has taught the hare a lesson, and more to come I would think.

Thanks for your indulgence of my self-indulgence once again.

Recent Share Investor Reading

Discuss this topic @ Shareinvestor.net.nz

Friday, March 20, 2009

Long VS Short: Freightways Ltd

In this sixth installment of the Long vs Short series I am once again going to take look at the chart comparisons for a stock from the Share Investor Portfolio and compare the 10 year return (above chart) to the turmoil of the last year with a 1 year return chart (large chart at bottom of post).

In this series I want to show the merits of investing, using charts, for the long-term vs short term gains or losses. I will use the longest available data to me for the long-term view (10 years )and will make a comparison against the NZX50.

In this segment of Long vs Short I will take a look at Freightways Ltd [FRE.NZ]

I currently hold 8200 Freightway's shares after buying them in July 2006 (see small chart below for detail)

The company has been a good performer over its history and has lifted profit slightly over the last year.

Symbol	Price	Value	Earned
FRE.NZ	$2.85	$23370	$164

You own 8200 [FRE.NZ] shares purchased at $2.83 [$23206]

In my 3 years of owning this share my return has been a meagre NZ$164. (see small chart on left)This includes dividends and tax credits. Still I have to say this isn't bad considering the market rorting we have been having.

If I had bought this share just a year ago (see large chart at bottom) my return would have been minus 30%, proving once again short term investing can be very volatile.

Now for the real point of this comparison lets look at the

return for Freightway's shareholders who have held the stock for 10 years. (see large chart above)

From a high of a 570% return in 2007 a 10 year return is still around 220%.

I am looking for a long term loser after six installments of long VS short but Freightways ain't one of them.

http://chart.bigcharts.com/custom/fairfax-com-nz/chart.asp?rnd=0.3338466193181723&style=2242&symb=fre&size=1&type=64&time=1yr&freq=1dy&comp=&compidx=NZ50G~1392984&ma=&maval=&lf=&lf2=&lf3=&uf=16384&arrowdates=&arrowlegend=&country=NZ&sid=162937

Freightways @ Share Investor

Freightway's keeps delivering
Why did you but that stock: Freightways Ltd
Freightway's delivers
Freightway's packages up a good result

Long vs Short Series

Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Mainfreight Ltd
The Warehouse Group
Sky City Entertainment

Related Reading

Freightways Financial Data

Sunday, February 1, 2009

Long vs Short: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare

In this forth installment of the Long vs Short series I am once again going to take look at the chart comparisons for a stock from the Share Investor Portfolio and compare the 10 year return (above) to the turmoil of the last year with a 1 year return chart (large chart at bottom of post).

In this series I want to show the merits of investing, using charts, for the long-term vs short term gains or losses. I will use the longest available data to me for the long-term view (10 years )and will make a comparison against the NZX50.

In the forth of this segment of Long vs Short I will take a look at Fisher & Paykel Healthcare [FPH.NZ]

I have held 2000 Fisher and Paykel Healthcare shares since May 2007 and have added more since then to take the total to 5000 (see small chart below for detail)

My Portfolio			About
Symbol	Price	Value	Earned
FPH.NZ	$3.38	$16900	$3550

You own 5000 [FPH.NZ] shares purchased at $2.67 [$13350]

My total return after 18 months or so is just over 26%. That is after dividends and tax credits are added and brokerage applied.

Very good considering current market conditions.

If I had held this stock for a full ten years (see large chart at top) my return would have been over 210%.

By comparison if I had held the stock for just one year (see large chart below) my return would have been a loss of 35%.

This is in spite of the stock being a relatively good performer this year.

No stock in this series, yet, has proven to be a loser over the longer 10 year period and Fisher & Paykel Healthcare is no exception.

http://chart.bigcharts.com/custom/fairfax-com-nz/chart.asp?rnd=0.3338466193181723&style=2242&symb=FPH&size=1&type=64&time=1yr&freq=1dy&comp=&compidx=NZ50G%7E1392984&ma=&maval=&lf=&lf2=&lf3=&uf=16384&arrowdates=&arrowlegend=&country=NZ&sid=162937

Long vs Short series

Mainfreight Ltd
The Warehouse Group
Sky City Entertainment

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare @ Share Investor

Why did you buy that stock? [Fisher & Paykel Healthcare]
Drinking and Trading
Big Fisher & Paykel Healthcare share trades a curious tale
Share Investor's 2008 stock picks
Fisher & Paykel: A tale of two companies
FPH downgrade masks good performance

Related Links

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare financial data

Saturday, January 10, 2009

Long vs Short: The Warehouse Group

In this third installment of the Long vs Short series I am once again going to take look at the chart comparisons for a stock from the Share Investor Portfolio and compare the 10 year return (above) to the turmoil of the last year with a 1 year return chart (bottom of post).

In this series I want to show the merits of investing, using charts, for the long-term vs short term gains or losses. I will use the longest available data to me for the long-term view and will compare against the NZX50.

My Portfolio
Symbol	Price	Value	Earned
WHS.NZ	$3.63	$29040	$-11760

You own 8000 [WHS.NZ] shares purchased at $5.10 [$40800]

The third stock in the series will be The Warehouse Ltd [WHS.NZ] which I have held in this particular portfolio for 16 months, so the returns will clearly not be as good as the longer term companies in my portfolio and will mirror more closely the one year chart (see bottom of post) rather than the 10 year one, which shows a healthy 270% return.

After dividends and tax credits are taken into consideration, my 16 month return is minus 25% ( see small chart above)pretty much the same as the one year return indicated in the chart below and par for the course considering the current market depression.

The long-term hold proposition wins again with the 270% or annualised 27% return beating any other stock in my portfolio.

Shame I haven't held it for 10 years though.

http://chart.bigcharts.com/custom/fairfax-com-nz/chart.asp?rnd=0.3338466193181723&style=2242&symb=WHS&size=1&type=64&time=1yr&freq=1dy&comp=&compidx=NZ50G%7E1392984&ma=&maval=&lf=&lf2=&lf3=&uf=16384&arrowdates=&arrowlegend=&country=NZ&sid=162937

Long vs Short series

Mainfreight Ltd
Sky City Entertainment

The Warehouse Group @ Share Investor

Warehouse bidders ready to lay money down
The Warehouse set to cut lose "extra" impediment
The Warehouse sale could hinge on "Extra" decision
The case for The Warehouse without a buyer
Foodstuffs take their foot off the gas
Woolworths seek leave to appeal to Supreme Court
Warehouse appeal decision imminent
Warehouse decision a loser for all
Warehouse Court of appeal decision in Commerce Commission's favour
MARKETWATCH: The Warehouse
The Warehouse takeover saga continues
Why did you buy that stock? [The Warehouse]
History of Warehouse takeover players suggest a long winding road
Court of Appeal delays Warehouse bid
The Warehouse set for turbulent 2008
The Warehouse Court of Appeal case lay in "Extras" hands
WHS Court of Appeal case could be dismissed next week
Commerce Commission impacts on the Warehouse bottom line
The Warehouse in play
Outcomes of Commerce Commission decision
The fight for control begins soon

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Related Links

The Warehouse Financial Data

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