Sell, sell, sell!!
The NZSX 50 was down 48 points today and is at its
lowest point since November 2006. Other global indexes
have also been markedly negative since Jan 1.
New Zealand and global sharemarket investors seem to be telling their brokers right now.
Global indexes have suffered from a New Year hangover that has seen values drop by an average of around 5% since January 1.
For sure there are underlying issues surrounding sub prime loans affecting credit flow and therefore investment, high inflation and oil prices but hang on a second, is that the end of the world?
Investors have to ask themselves why they bought their stocks in the first place and if the only criteria that has changed are the current macro conditions that currently exist and they will have no direct, disastrous affect on the fortunes of the company you have plunked money into, then following the sheep to your broker's door is only going to make him richer in the long run.
Why don't you follow your own research and perhaps stock up on companies that you already have shareholdings in?
Most serious wealth is created for investors when they buy assets during down periods such as the present one.
The worlds most successful investor, Warren Buffett, uses this very approach to add to his ever increasing large holdings and enter new businesses and it is one backbone to his investing style that has done him well.
The tricky part is of course choosing the right time to buy in a declining market and that is probably the hardest part of "picking a bargain", because the share price could be even cheaper next week, month or even year but if you can get shares in a good company that you already own cheaper than your initial purchase then you are doing well.
If you are feeling nervous at all about current market volatility on the downside and you are so worried that you cant sleep because your portfolio is losing value, then you should either stop checking stock prices every minute or simply get out of the stockmarket, because it isn't for you.
The market is risky and continued stock price increases are not going to be the status quo and if you have a short term view of investing then you are going to be continually disappointed and worried!
I think global markets are set for continued negativity for 2008 and a slow recovery in 2009, until we see the full exposure of the sub prime fallout mid year.
Until then just hang on and maybe even get the checkbook out little bears.
Related reading from Share Investor
Research, research, research
Current Credit Crunch a blessing in disguise
Leaders must come clean to restore trust in credit market
Fear and Greed are lovely things
What is Warren Buffett doing?
Global credit squeeze: There is no free lunch
Panic! Wot Me?
Global Markets dropping and your portfolio
Watch for dead cats bouncing
C Share Investor 2008
Monday, January 14, 2008
A sensible approach to global market volatility
Posted by Share Investor at 8:12 PM 0 comments
Labels: contrarian, Global market meltdown
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
Sky City Entertainment share price drop
The share price of Sky City Entertainment has had its own run of bad luck over the last few days.
While the NZX as a whole has been very weak on low holiday volume today, the SKC share price was down 9c to finish on its days low of NZ$ 4.33 on 3 million plus shares, excellent turnover for this stock on any day.
This 5 day chart from Yahoo tells the grim story and is clearly an indicator of something material at play.
The clear winner is that nobody is going to buy the casino company. The market knows that the prospect of this has been tenuous at best anyway, however insiders might know this as a certainty and are dumping holdings.
The other possibility is that a sale has been made of their cinema division and the price is low or bids are low, or management haven't found a buyer and are left with a small white elephant.
Another dreary thought is that half year profit, to be announced around the 20th of February 2008, is going to be lower than forecast, first half 2008 ended 31 December 2007. The market would have to know if profit is going to be materially lower though.
Either way insiders are selling down and bad news looks to be on the cards.
Blackjack anyone?
Disclosure: I own SKC shares
Share Investor articles on Sky City:
New Broom at Sky City set to sweep
Sky City Management: Blind, deaf and numb
Sky City sale could be off
Opposition to takeover
Premium for control
Sky City receives takeover bid
Sky City Casino Full Year Profit to June 30 2007
Setting the record straight
Sky City CEO resigns
Sky City Casino: Underperforming
Sky City Casino 2007 HY Profit(analysis)
Sky City Casino 2007 HY Profit
C Share Investor 2007,2008
Posted by Share Investor at 9:43 PM 0 comments
Labels: sky city entertainment
Sunday, January 6, 2008
Share Investor's 2008 Stock Picks
As the price of gas to starts to reach for the stars, fixed mortgage interest rates look like they are ready to go double figures, a continuation of the 2007 finance company meltdown set to drag on, and Helen Clark and her merry bunch set to plunder taxpayer wallets again in 2008, this writer is still in a holiday frame of mind.Pumpkin Patch Ltd[PPL]is on my buying list again for 2008. I have already picked up increased quantities of this 2007 beaten down stock and the short term punishment from slightly weaker global profit margins due to higher living costs means this stock will pick up when these pressures disappear.
Yum's KFC operation seems to be the star of the show, especially in China, as increasingly wealthy Chinese get the taste for western protein such as chicken and the number of possible units there would dwarf the US store count.
Starbucks had a rough year in 2007 but this former bull star has room left to run in 2008 as its stock price was given a good frothing due to its slowing sales and profit and Asian expansion could put some cream on the lattes as 2008 goes forward.
Share Investor's Annual Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2017 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2014 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2013 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2012 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2010 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2009 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2008 Stock picks
Broker Picks
Brokers 2014 Stock Picks
Brokers 2013 Stock Picks
Brokers 2012 Stock Picks
Brokers 2011 Stock Picks
c Share Investor 2008
Posted by Share Investor at 8:24 PM 1 comments
Labels: Burger Fuel, Fisher and Paykel Healthcare, mainfreight, pumpkin patch, share investor stock picks, sky city entertainment
Saturday, January 5, 2008
Carbon Credit trading puts global markets at extreme risk
Originally posted at my Share Investor Blog this piece is also a highly political one, and in an Election year voters need to be wary of our political masters and their views on the new global warming religion.
The New Zealand Labour party passed a law at the end of 2007 to allow the trading of "carbon credits" in 2008 and the legitimacy that it sees this trading give their lunatic stance on "global warming" will give them ample cause to bring even more new taxes in 2008 to "lessen the impact of our carbon footprints" and therefore have even more control over New Zealanders.
Man made "global warming" is a myth and it is a means used by politicians to suck your pocket drier than a dust storm in the Saudi desert on a 60 degree day in the full sun.
Nothing more.
Carbon Credit trading puts global markets at extreme risk
From Share Investor Blog
I'm going to kick 2008 off with a topic that is going to be a constant of mine this year, and in the years to come, because as far as economics, the impact on economies and business, it is going to be one of the biggest negatives we have ever faced.
The scourge of the global warming Nazis and their thirst for control, of individuals and nations, through new and increased taxes, in the name of decreasing your "carbon footprint", is going to have far reaching impacts into every aspect of everyday life.
The relevance of this to investing and my interest comes in the form of "carbon trading".
The introduction of a so-called "Carbon Trading" platform by New Zealand's NZX is likely to be the beginning of the end for this country's economy and global economies as we know them and there is a possibility that our sharemarket could be wiped off the face of the earth completely when the carbon trading market inevitably collapses.
Scaremongering and overstating my case to make a point?
I think not.
If we learn anything from history in regards to booms and busts and meaningless frenzies whipped up by market hysteria, we have only to look back to the most recent tech bust of 2000, where there was at least some substance and truth and real profit involved in a handful of tech companies, some of which still survive today.
We can also look back to the Dutch poppy boom around 400 years ago, where "rare" blooms were being traded for outrageous prices, well beyond any intrinsic value and of course just like the tech boom 400 years latter, much wealth was made by those that got in first but eventually things turned pear shaped, and most people lost, collectively, vast sums of money.
If we look at the carbon trading market, one can see the beginnings of a frenzy, one being whipped up by the likes of Al Gore, Hollywood and theorists who base their whole "global warming" theory on failed "science" and outright lies.
Al Gore is one of the leading proponents of carbon credit trading and has a huge financial interest in that market.
These early adopters are set to make billions on carbon trading markets and will be the only ones to profit from it.
The outfall when the latter come investors lose faith from trading "carbon credits", which they will because they are not only worth zero in dollar terms, but are a negative weight on economies and have no intrinsic value in themselves, will cause a crash in multiple markets not seen since 1929 and the 2000 tech plunge.
The trading of good stocks, property, land, businesses, minerals, commodities and the like, that have an actual value, and clearly while the prices of these assets will fluctuate in price, most provide a real income and have value. Carbon credits, which are and will be traded increasingly in the future, have no actual value if you don't believe the flawed concept on which they are actually based.
As most critical thinkers know, the concept of man made "global warming", the basis for it and the reasons it is being raised as a concept or theory, is a highly contentious one and the trading of carbon credits, in order to make money for the savvy, gives it a respectability it really doesn't deserve.
Just like the poppy rush of the 1600s, the great crash of 1929, the market meltdown in1987 and the tech bust in 2000, the coming carbon credit trading bust shares some of the reasons why markets crashed at these times.
These four market crashes all share an over exuberance and a market frenzy to a point where the value of the assets or shares traded far exceeded their real intrinsic value and these were the main reasons why the markets eventually collapsed.
The poppy trading, tech market boom and carbon credit trading share a similar trait in themselves.
In all three cases the values placed on "goods" traded often had no or little value from the get go.
Poppies traded 400 years ago were wildly inflated in price, the majority of tech company stocks traded had never made a profit, and in the carbon credit trading example not only does the "product" traded have no real value, it is actually of negative value, in a local and global business sense because it adds cost to running a business and will eventually be applied to every product and service that consumers buy and use on a daily basis.
From a carbon tax on gas at the pump, to food you buy in the supermarket, the new carbon taxes will be applied to everything and clearly it will cost us all more, all for no good reason, for that is what taxes do, they constrain business and economies.
So clearly the carbon credit trading part of the equation means you can offset those extra taxes forced on us by the global warming Nazis but the negative value of those so called carbon credits is self evident from my explanation that they are a cost not a productive commodity that is worth anything.
They are worth less than nothing!!!
Politicians and business "leaders" who have jumped on the carbon credit bandwagon, because they can see the dollars to be made and the control of the populace that extra taxes afford, are putting the global economy under threat. Ironic then that this is being led by a failed politician, Al Gore.
The past has left us littered with evidence that getting caught up in such bandwagons only leads to disaster.
To ignore the warning signs of history is to go forward blindfolded, deaf and with ones mouth shut and is clearly moronic to the ultimate degree.
In writing this piece I am constantly reminded by the old adage "...when one ignores history one is bound to repeat the same mistakes..." but we know what has passed and it is more like, "... repeating the same thing over and over and expecting a different result".
Either way the global economy is in for a huge shock when the carbon credit market implodes.
Resist the temptation to get involved this time.
Humourous look at trading in "dreams"
C Share Investor & Political Animal 2007, 2008
Posted by Share Investor at 7:39 AM 0 comments
Labels: carbon trading, climate change, global warming