Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Dead Cats and Vicious Bears

If you are a short termer in the stockmarket of late you would have done well over the last week or so depending on the stock that you purchased.

I am thinking you might want to cut and run soon.

Stocks like Fletcher Building [FBU.NZ] are up more than 20% on recent lows, Mainfreight [MFT.NZ] up by nearly 20%, Sky City Entertainment [SKC.NZ], Goodman Fielder [GFF.NZ], Briscoe Group [BGR.NZ], Hallenstein Glasson [HLG.NZ] and Ryman Healthcare [RYM.NZ] all up over 10%.

The NZX is up nearly 200 points, 43 of them today.

Markets around the world are up dizzying amounts over the last week and a half, the DOW alone leaping around 1000 points off 13 year lows. It gained nearly 500 points today in the third highest ever percentage gain in the indexes history.

Dizzying stats huh?

What does all this upwards activity really mean though?

In my not so humble opinion it means very little at all.

The impetus for all this upwards frenzy is Barack Obama and his manufacturing money supply in the trillions, just over the last few weeks alone to "ease the credit crises". Apparently it is a positive move.

People investing back into the stockmarket now think this is all over so they send the DOW 500 points higher?

Have we all forgotten the reality that the world is in a deep recession?

I believe moves made by Obama over the last few days mean caution flags should be raised in investors minds. His moves will make things worse in the long term.

The market should have gone down.

Once the detail of this is digested, the market will wake up to reality and continue to fall.

It is a sucker Dead Cat rally and it ain't the kind of pussycat one wants to take home.

Disclosure: I own all the shares mentioned in this article.


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