Thursday, August 19, 2010

Compulsory Super fails on all fronts

The contention in the NZ Herald Editorial today that compulsory superannuation is the answer to our economic and savings "problems" is wide of the mark on most points:

"So compelling is the case for compulsory superannuation that it is a mystery why the Government is setting up yet another working group...it is not a question of whether there should be compulsory superannuation but when and how it should be introduced".

What happened to personal choice and the attractiveness of a savings package alone that would have individuals flocking to save for their future?

There is one thing that I agree with the editorial writer on. That is the Government should do something.

On what should be done by them though the editorial writer and I strongly disagree.

The Herald wants the government to force individuals into saving. Force them into low quality saving based on compulsion rather than the quality of the investment.

I would contend that the government only need provide incentive and therefore choice for individuals to save for themselves by removing the obvious tax barriers that all investments, bar investment property, are weighed down by.

Make investing tax free, or lower taxed for you socialists out there (mind you you would want me to pay for your retirement) and people would be saving and saving more. The only decision they would have to make is who to go with.

This, by and large, will provide choice, quality, personal responsibility and good returns over the long-term.

It is proven that we will invest when there is a good incentive and we freely invest in rental housing when there is a clear advantage to that investment and this sector has boomed.

A government mandated compulsory savings scheme is doomed to failure - the recent failure of Kiwisaver is a case in point. Government schemes have always been failures and always will be - seen anything positively successful any Government has done..well duhhahhh!. They distort the economy and have provided poor returns.

The Herald sees compulsion as the answer to providing local capital to grow business and the economy. Lowering or taking the tax off buying and holding shares would have much better results than compulsion and the added benefit is that you get to choose what you invest in!

Imagine that actually choosing what to invest in based on its financial merits rather than compulsorily investing in any old investment garbage.

The Herald is right, we need to save and invest in our future.

Personal responsibility and choice though are better reasons to save than being told you should put your money into an undefined, uncertain, government mandated super scheme. Schemes that are open to political manipulation and the self interest of bureaucrats and State sanctioned financial advisors.

We cannot trust compulsion, only personal choice when it comes to investing in our future.

Compulsion without real incentive always fails.


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Fletcher Building Ltd: 2010 Full Year Profit Analysis

The 2010 full year profit for Fletcher Building Ltd [FBU.NZ] is a solid result considering the recession has hit the building sector so hard over the last year.

Small and big building companies are going to the wall faster than you can say "rip that drywall out before the receivers come in" so the fact that FBU is still here and in good health is positive. The worry for FBU shareholders is surely what levels of work lay ahead for the company in the 2011 financial year and will they survive if they don't win future big Government infrastructure projects which they have an 85% reliance on for revenue.

Australia makes a big infrastructure contribution to Fletcher's revenue take as well.

While the 2010 net profit of $272 million (after the one-off government tax changes for 2010) was up strongly on the 2009 $46 million loss, due to asset writedowns in the Formica division, it was on revenue down 4% to NZ$6.8 billion.


Key Points

•Net earnings before unusual items $301 million.

•Unusual items of $29 million due to NZ tax changes.

•Net earnings $272 million

•Operating earnings¹ of $521 million.

•Cashflow from operations $522 million.

•Revenues down 4% to $6.8 billion

•Higher insulation and construction revenues

•Lower sales volumes in most business

•Adverse impact from exchange rate movements

•15 cents per share final dividend, 29 cents for the year

•Dividend reinvestment plan not operative for final dividend


The Formica division, bought for nearly NZ$ 1 billion in 2007 has still failed to fire and continues to drag on overall company performance. It is probably around break even net profit-wise so the money borrowed to finance the purchase continues to drag on the bottom-line with interest payments sucking out cashflow from the balance sheet. I don't see this dog paying back long-term, if at all, for a considerable time.

Like the fortunes of Steel & Tube Ltd [STU.NZ], FBU's steel division sales are well down and needs the commercial sector, which has impacted all areas of their commercial businesses, to turn the slump around.

Management say their residential building sector in New Zealand, Australia and North America shows some promise but it is only small and has so far failed to show any sort of sustainable pattern and could be just a blip on an otherwise downtrend - my emphasis.

Interestingly there is commentary that the emissions trading scheme passed last month will have an impact on the company and its bottomline. Management say a small dent currently but it will be much higher as we descend into the madness of this rort on business and the average Kiwi.

The company is understandably vague about 2011 with no profit indications or expectation, but in New Zealand they see a gradual continuing recovery in residential building activity, with commercial construction expected to remain weak.

Like my good self they see infrastructure spending likely be down in 2011 before growing in 2012.

A similar outlook is expected for Australia with their businesses in Europe, Asia and North America having a level of diminishing expectations from their Australasian business units.

2011 is going to be a difficult year for FBU.


FBU 2010 Profit in detail

Listen to audio of profit presentation - 18/08/10
Presentation in PDF - 18/08/10


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Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd: 2010 Full Year Profit Analysis

The 2010 Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd [SKC.NZ] 2010 full year profit out this morning was no surprise to the market.

It is a record profit for the company.

When compared to the $115 million 2009 full year result, the 2010 net profit of $141.725 million (Net profit is down 13% on 2009 due to Govt tax changes. This is merely a one-off balance sheet entry)is up by more than 22% on slightly higher revenue of $837,855 million, that is down 1 % on 2009.

Key Points from the 2010 Result

1. Record net profit of $141.725 million (Net profit is down 13% on 2009 due to Govt tax changes.)

2. Total revenue down by 1% to $837,855 million. (Cinema revenue excluded from part of the year)

3. Dividend up by more than 40% to 9.25c vs 2009 6.5c.

4. Uncertain 2011 outlook.

5. Reliance on Australian casinos for future revenue growth.

6. Just over $10 million of profit from the gain from disposal of cinema assets.


Cost savings through paying down debt and other business costs savings continue to be a major factor in the improved bottomline and the proceeds of the sale of their cinema business which was $10.3 million went million straight to the bottom-line.

Overall revenue is sadly still stagnant and at the main profit maker, the Auckland Casino, revenue is down by more than 2% but Sky City's two hotels in Auckland had gained significant market share during the past two years with hotel revenue up, against the overall market trend.

It should be noted that alot of the increased profit has already been wrung out so 2011 is going to be a struggle.

Its Australian casino assets in Darwin and Adelaide have continued to trade well and the currency swap from revenue exported to head office in Auckland has given SKC a good boost.

The key part of today's announcement is surely the indication by CEO Nigel Morrison that the company sees more uncertainty ahead and it will be hard to see SKC beating the 2010 result come this time in 2011 but Morrison seems to be reasonably positive about the next 12 months:

"However, we expect to continue to deliver improved returns as the economy recovers."

As he said in my interview with him earlier this year, he expected double figure profit growth again in 2011.

I cant see it.

9 out of 10.


Disclosure
: I own SKC shares in the Share Investor Portfolio


2010 Profit in Detail




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DNZ Property Ltd : Every Dog has its day

The debut of DNZ Property Ltd [DNZ.NZX] on the NZX yesterday while no means setting the world on fire did slightly better than I expected by finishing the day at 99c per share on good volume.

The issue price was 97c.

The true value of the company was hard to determine during the IPO process because of the Pro -forma figures used in the prospectus and the fickle value placed on real estate in the current environment but the market seems to have decided that value was there and bought additional shares on the stocks debut.

I personally don't think the company is worth as much as the market values it at (I am a contrarian bastard in most facets of my life!) and wouldn't want to do that until I saw a year or two of operating performance from the company.

Like most commercial property companies , DNZ is going to struggle in the current environment. Empty commercial space will put pressure on lease arrangements over the next year or two and I doubt whether prospectus promises will be attained.

There will be value in this stock but that will lie in a much lower share price given the uncertainty of the company and its future in the highly competitive commercial property market.



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c Share Investor 2010