Share Investor

Tuesday, October 4, 2016

Sky City: Time to Double Down

Tuesday, August 23, 2016

NZX Gross Index: Wheres it Going?

Chart forS&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS (^NZ50)

I think I seem really uninspired to write much because of what I have been through, about the side effects from the drugs I am taking and the ongoing outfall of things around the family.

BUT, there seems to be one thing that is in my uppermost in my mind. The continued march forward in value of the NZX. It is as I write 7479.

Up over 30% in ONE YEAR!!

I do think - if the current reporting season holds up and so far it has - it is headed north of 8000.

You have got to be kidding yourself if you think this is going to go on forever.

It wont.

No matter if your cash is earning close to 3% - and dropping sticking your money in stocks and shares is not the way out - unless you know when this bubble is about to burst.

And you know what I think about houses.

You should keep your money in the bank you will be ready there when it all turns around and we begin to face inflation and rampant central bank monetary increases.

Share Investors Portfolio @ 19 Aug 2016


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c Share Investor 2016

Friday, July 15, 2016

Why You Should Stay Away From Stocks Right Now

To answer my question in the title, because they're bloody expensive, way over priced and there's far better value, especially if your funds are substantial, in parking your funds in a "safe place" - in cash in New Zealand.

But that's the thing, apart from cash, and you saw my piece written about property last week , which by the way could relate to commercial property as well, there is no other place that funds are now going.

And one does not know how big this latest investment bubble will go until it bursts but you can expect them to continue for a few years yet, as the struggles in China intensify, Europe breaks up over Brexit, Japan starts to look like a giant helicopter, the rest of Asia struggles along and the rest of this world in Australia and New Zealand move along at a modest pace.

The DOW is at record levels and has gone up 5 days in a row now - stocks are at VERY high PE multiples and there is so much risk built in BUT the stock market continues to climb and is likely to until we get a significant number of interest rate hikes - Janet Yellen ought to just make a decision instead of wondering what she might do will have an effect in London or Anchorage Alaska.

As well debt levels are starting to get scary:

"The United States is less than two decades away from exceeding its highest recorded level of federal debt, according to the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO).

The CBO projects that U.S. federal debt will pass 106 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) by 2035, in its second long-term budget outlook report of 2016. That level was recorded once before, in 1946, shortly after World War II.

The current federal debt is worth 75 percent of the country's GDP. It's expected to reach 86 percent by 2026, and 141 percent by 2046." The Hill

Debt is likely another story back here, with latest figures showing NZrs as a whole owing $255 billion overseas and the Govt roughly $247 billion. Trading Economics

Surely we should get on top of this pile while we can.

Simply stop buying houses - because that is where it is going.

Until then, here in New Zealand we are likely to see stock markets climb to maybe 10000 by this time next year as people, and increasingly foreign money finds a place (saw a chap on Bloomberg yesterday mention New Zealand and Australia with the highest returns and a place where he would park money for the foreseeable future.) to put their moola.

I agree.

But watch out, eventually you will see the music stop and you might be left holding the parcel - and it might contain.

Nothing.

Share Investors Portfolio @ 15 July 2016


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c Share Investor 2016

Sunday, July 10, 2016

Share Price Alert: New Zealand Refining Ltd 4 (UPDATE)

Chart forNew Zealand Refining Co Ltd (NZR.NZ)

New Zealand Refining Ltd [NZR.NZX] we last looked at this stock back on July 5 2011, since then it has been higher than its current price of $2.47 certainly higher than its recent low of just about $1 and a half coming up around 16 months ago but this gem is set to rocket when things fall into place.

Get this if your going to buy it Monday, you will get it for just shy of its net tangibles which are, according to ASB Securities $250.01 per share.

There are so many variables as to when to buy this share; the price of oil, the US/NZ dollar cross, the refining margin, what the company is spending at present on capital expenditure and what the company pays you in divs.

You cant get it for less than its asset backing though, but in this case you can.

I myself am going to put a few shekels down on Monday, its the only share on the NZX I think is worth buying.

*currently my buy is in at $2.45, I won't go higher . Its up 8c on low volume.

NZR @ Share Investor

Share Price Alert: New Zealand Refining Ltd 2
Share Price Alert: NZ Refining Ltd
Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks
Stock of the Week - Reprise: NZ Refining Ltd
Chart of the Week: New Zealand Refining Ltd
Stock of the Week: NZ Refining Ltd

Discuss NZR @ Share Investor Forum
Download NZR Company Reports

c Share Investor 2016

Share Investor

Tuesday, October 4, 2016

Sky City: Time to Double Down

Tuesday, August 23, 2016

NZX Gross Index: Wheres it Going?

Friday, July 15, 2016

Why You Should Stay Away From Stocks Right Now

Sunday, July 10, 2016

Share Price Alert: New Zealand Refining Ltd 4 (UPDATE)

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