Monday, February 14, 2011

The Case for State Asset Sales

Originally posted @ Share Investor Blog

Much has been written over the last month since the National Party announced its policy to partially sell State Electricity assets should they win the November 26 election and most of it the typical rantings of those commentators from the left and those politicians from the same place that are scaremongering for political gain.


If we look at the facts before us though, in terms of the economic fortunes of New Zealand we are in a dire situation.

These are the main points of the National Party Policy:

  • The Government would have to maintain a majority controlling stake by owning more than 50 per cent of the company.
  • New Zealand investors would have to be at the front of the queue for shareholdings, and we would have to be confident of widespread and substantial New Zealand share ownership.
  • The companies involved would have to present good opportunities for investors.
  • The capital freed up would have to be used on behalf of taxpayers to fund new public assets and thereby reduce the pressure on the Government to borrow.
  • The Government would have to be satisfied that industry-specific regulations adequately protected New Zealand consumers.

Very specific guidelines for a sale process that do not mention full sales.

We have very high debt levels, both personally and publicly and this debt is a heavy weight on out present and future economic stability.

We owe almost as much as we own and borrowing and interest costs are currently having a big impact on us, with the State borrowing NZ$300 million a week and individuals still borrowing and servicing their own debt.

This impact will have long term effects if we do not do anything to either pay down more debt, cut spending or drastically cut both. Nobody would attempt to do the latter, apart from the most rabid right wingers so we have to do something right?

Absolutely is the unequivocal answer.

While I would be happy to sell non-essential assets to the State like schools, hospitals, airlines, banks and many other under-performing state monopolies, the National Party are only considering selling partial minority stakes in 4 electricity companies to Mum and Dad investors -hardly a sell-down of the family silver!

The control of those assets remains in the hands of the State on behalf of all of us, so it shouldn't be a problem to the left who have championed the same sort of sell-down of Air New Zealand Ltd [AIR.NZX] that happened under Labour nearly 10 years ago, so the current opposition seems at the very least sour grapes that the left are not in power and at the most hypocritical to the extreme.

The proceeds from a sell down of 49% stakes in the 4 remaining state power companies should go to paying down debt, there are indications that Government want to use the cash freed up to buy other assets for the State but that would clearly be a mistake given the poor quality of management of State assets under any political party.

The sell-down will also encourage prospective small Mum and Dad investors to invest in good companies based in New Zealand rather than putting money into dead end stuff like term investments, private real estate or investing money overseas.

The vast proportion of Kiwisaver money and money invested in various New Zealand superannuation schemes is currently invested offshore and that clearly needs to change.

We need to invest in ourselves, promote a savings culture based on our own assets and the National Party proposal ticks all those positive boxes.

To scaremonger by saying this policy is one based on failed models of the 1980s and 1990s is simply that and is not based on fact at all but a political agenda and lack of economic education, business skills and a determination and political ethos that will have us stuck with the debt we have now for generations to come.

We need to take politics out of this and take a good hard look at the merits based on fact.


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c Share Investor & Darren Rickard 2011


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The Case for State Asset Sales

Much has been written over the last month since the National Party announced its policy to partially sell State Electricity assets should they win the November 26 election and most of it the typical rantings of those commentators from the left and those politicians from the same place that are scaremongering for political gain.

If we look at the facts before us though, in terms of the economic fortunes of New Zealand we are in a dire situation.

These are the main points of the National Party Policy:

  • The Government would have to maintain a majority controlling stake by owning more than 50 per cent of the company.
  • New Zealand investors would have to be at the front of the queue for shareholdings, and we would have to be confident of widespread and substantial New Zealand share ownership.
  • The companies involved would have to present good opportunities for investors.
  • The capital freed up would have to be used on behalf of taxpayers to fund new public assets and thereby reduce the pressure on the Government to borrow.
  • The Government would have to be satisfied that industry-specific regulations adequately protected New Zealand consumers.

Very specific guidelines for a sale process that do not mention full sales.

We have very high debt levels, both personally and publicly and this debt is a heavy weight on out present and future economic stability.

We owe almost as much as we own and borrowing and interest costs are currently having a big impact on us, with the State borrowing NZ$300 million a week and individuals still borrowing and servicing their own debt.

This impact will have long term effects if we do not do anything to either pay down more debt, cut spending or drastically cut both. Nobody would attempt to do the latter, apart from the most rabid right wingers so we have to do something right?

Absolutely is the unequivocal answer.

While I would be happy to sell non-essential assets to the State like schools, hospitals, airlines, banks and many other under-performing state monopolies, the National Party are only considering selling partial minority stakes in 4 electricity companies to Mum and Dad investors -hardly a sell-down of the family silver!

The control of those assets remains in the hands of the State on behalf of all of us, so it shouldn't be a problem to the left who have championed the same sort of sell-down of Air New Zealand Ltd [AIR.NZX] that happened under Labour nearly 10 years ago, so the current opposition seems at the very least sour grapes that the left are not in power and at the most hypocritical to the extreme.

The proceeds from a sell down of 49% stakes in the 4 remaining state power companies should go to paying down debt, there are indications that Government want to use the cash freed up to buy other assets for the State but that would clearly be a mistake given the poor quality of management of State assets under any political party.

The sell-down will also encourage prospective small Mum and Dad investors to invest in good companies based in New Zealand rather than putting money into dead end stuff like term investments, private real estate or investing money overseas.

The vast proportion of Kiwisaver money and money invested in various New Zealand superannuation schemes is currently invested offshore and that clearly needs to change.

We need to invest in ourselves, promote a savings culture based on our own assets and the National Party proposal ticks all those positive boxes.

To scaremonger by saying this policy is one based on failed models of the 1980s and 1990s is simply that and is not based on fact at all but a political agenda and lack of economic education, business skills and a determination and political ethos that will have us stuck with the debt we have now for generations to come.

We need to take politics out of this and take a good hard look at the merits based on fact.


Recent Share Investor Reading


Discuss this Topic @ Share Investor Forum


From Fishpond.co.nz

Every Bastard Says No: The 42 Below Story

Buy Every Bastard Says No - The 42 Below Story, by Geoff Ross & Justine Troy & more @ Fishpond.co.nz

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c Share Investor 2011

Freightways Ltd: 2011 Half Year Profit Commentary

The half year profit to December 31 2010 that came out this morning from Freightways Ltd [FRE.NZX] is an indication that life is starting to get better for the company in these tough times and as a bell-weather stock it perhaps is first evidence that the economy as a whole has picked up after all. I am still dubious about that though.

The net profit of is up 9% to $15,796 million on the comparable 2010 half year.

Revenue was also up by 7% to $176,166 on last year, a year in when revenue was down by the same amount so the net profit is a combination of slightly higher revenue and a focus on costs.

A healthy dividend of 7.25 c is to be paid compared with last years half of 7c, so it looks like management are confidant that the rebound has some legs.

Financing costs for a sizable company debt have also increased markedly over the half, by 13%, so that increase in dividend may not be wise after all -better to pay down the debt.

Naturally management are cagey about company prospects for the coming year given economic uncertainty and they see the possibility that their good result is "not sustainable", especially as revenue growth has not been consistent throughout the group's businesses. I would have to say that business operations and therefore revenue will probably come under pressure over the rest of 2011 and into 2012 and once again careful capital management and a focus on business costs will see them through another tough year until the New Zealand economy bounces back and real consistent growth for the company can return.

Overall, the half year 2011 result has been a good indicator of a very tough 2010 and an indicator that there is more patchiness to come for Freightways. The same can also be said about the New Zealand economy as a whole.

Image

FRE has not traded at time of writing this morning with a big gap between buyers and sellers.
9 out of ten.


Disc
I own FRE shares in the Share Investor Portfolio


Freightways @ Share Investor

Share Price Alert: Freightways Ltd
Freightways Ltd: 2010 Full Year Profit Analysis
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Freightways Ltd: 2010 Half Year profit commentary
Freightways Ltd: 2009 Full Year profit commentary
Freightway's Capital Raising more of the same crap for small shareholders
Long VS Short: Freightways Ltd
Freightway's keeps delivering

Why did you but that stock: Freightways Ltd
Freightway's delivers
Freightway's packages up a good result

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c Share Investor 2011

Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 14 February 2011

Like a Hone Harawera interview The Share Investor Portfolio took a dive in the second week of February. The portfolio was down 1.69% or $4704.51 on the Feb 7 update . For the first 6 weeks of 2011 the portfolio has increased by 1.61% or $4473.76. This weeks fall was due, primarily, to a 4c fall in SKC, the biggest part of the portfolio and big falls in MFT & WHS also weighed heavily.

The total of unspent dividends in the bank from the 2010 earnings year is $16631.93 at close of reporting season for 2010. There are also approx $50000.00 in tax credits earned from the portfolio since it began in late 2002.


Share Investor Portfolio as at 17:30:00, Friday 11 February, 2011 (NZDT)

Stock
Quantity
Cost price
Total cost
Market price
Market value
Change
%
AIA

2,000 $1.700 $3,400.00 $2.220 $4,440.00 $1,040.00 30.59%
AIA

2,000 $1.510 $3,020.00 $2.220 $4,440.00 $1,420.00 47.02%
AIA

803 $2.150 $1,726.45 $2.220 $1,782.66 $56.21 3.26%
AIA

445 $0.000 $0.00 $2.220 $987.90 $987.90
AIA

64 $1.650 $105.60 $2.220 $142.08 $36.48 34.55%
ASBPB

2,946 $0.000 $0.00 $0.720 $2,121.12 $2,121.12
ASBPB

7,054 $1.000 $7,054.00 $0.720 $5,078.88 $1,975.12 28.00%
BGR

438 $0.000 $0.00 $1.400 $613.20 $613.20
BGR

2,562 $0.990 $2,536.38 $1.400 $3,586.80 $1,050.42 41.41%
FBU

266 $0.000 $0.00 $8.160 $2,170.56 $2,170.56
FBU

848 $9.750 $8,268.00 $8.160 $6,919.68 $1,348.32 16.31%
FPH

3,000 $2.350 $7,050.00 $3.080 $9,240.00 $2,190.00 31.06%
FPH

541 $0.000 $0.00 $3.080 $1,666.28 $1,666.28
FPH

1,459 $3.720 $5,427.48 $3.080 $4,493.72 $933.76 17.20%
FRE

1,882 $0.000 $0.00 $3.200 $6,022.40 $6,022.40
FRE

6,749 $3.630 $24,498.87 $3.200 $21,596.80 $2,902.07 11.85%
GFF

541 $0.000 $0.00 $1.630 $881.83 $881.83
GFF

1,459 $2.330 $3,399.47 $1.630 $2,378.17 $1,021.30 30.04%
HLG

244 $0.000 $0.00 $3.900 $951.60 $951.60
HLG

756 $2.530 $1,912.68 $3.900 $2,948.40 $1,035.72 54.15%
KIP

190 $0.000 $0.00 $1.000 $190.00 $190.00
KIP

810 $1.480 $1,198.80 $1.000 $810.00 $388.80 32.43%
MFT

1,000 $7.960 $7,960.00 $8.150 $8,150.00 $190.00 2.39%
MFT

1,838 $8.000 $14,704.00 $8.150 $14,979.70 $275.70 1.88%
MFT

657 $0.000 $0.00 $8.150 $5,354.55 $5,354.55
MFT

1,505 $4.200 $6,321.00 $8.150 $12,265.75 $5,944.75 94.05%
MHI

1,646 $0.860 $1,415.56 $0.900 $1,481.40 $65.84 4.65%
MHI

7,000 $0.630 $4,410.00 $0.900 $6,300.00 $1,890.00 42.86%
MHI

718 $0.000 $0.00 $0.900 $646.20 $646.20
MHI

636 $1.050 $667.80 $0.900 $572.40 $95.40 14.29%
PPG

31 $0.000 $0.00 $0.260 $8.06 $8.06
PPG

1,500 $0.440 $660.00 $0.260 $390.00 $270.00 40.91%
PPG

1,004 $0.800 $803.20 $0.260 $261.04 $542.16 67.50%
PPL

1,000 $3.090 $3,090.00 $1.450 $1,450.00 $1,640.00 53.07%
PPL

1,000 $2.870 $2,870.00 $1.450 $1,450.00 $1,420.00 49.48%
PPL

939 $4.200 $3,943.80 $1.450 $1,361.55 $2,582.25 65.48%
PPL

877 $0.000 $0.00 $1.450 $1,271.65 $1,271.65
PPL

1,184 $1.530 $1,811.52 $1.450 $1,716.80 $94.72 5.23%
RYM

459 $0.000 $0.00 $2.370 $1,087.83 $1,087.83
RYM

4,586 $1.970 $9,034.42 $2.370 $10,868.82 $1,834.40 20.30%
SKC

5,750 $7.430 $42,722.50 $3.300 $18,975.00 $23,747.50 55.59%
SKC

1,000 $7.600 $7,600.00 $3.300 $3,300.00 $4,300.00 56.58%
SKC

2,750 $7.700 $21,175.00 $3.300 $9,075.00 $12,100.00 57.14%
SKC

1,431 $8.750 $12,521.25 $3.300 $4,722.30 $7,798.95 62.29%
SKC

25,085 $0.000 $0.00 $3.300 $82,780.50 $82,780.50
SKC

899 $4.720 $4,243.28 $3.300 $2,966.70 $1,276.58 30.08%
STU

78 $0.000 $0.00 $2.440 $190.32 $190.32
STU

322 $4.740 $1,526.28 $2.440 $785.68 $740.60 48.52%
WHS

4,500 $3.730 $16,785.00 $3.530 $15,885.00 $900.00 5.36%
WHS

6,979 $6.000 $41,874.00 $3.530 $24,635.87 $17,238.13 41.17%
WHS

2,880 $0.000 $0.00 $3.530 $10,166.40 $10,166.40
WHS

641 $3.710 $2,378.11 $3.530 $2,262.73 $115.38 4.85%


18.23%


Total cost Market value Change

$278,114.45 $328,823.33 $50,708.88


Share Investor Portfolio @ Share Investor

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