Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Restaurant Brands share price looking overcooked



Restaurant Brands Ltd [RBD.NZX] shares reached an all time high last week when it hit a price of $2.76 on Friday. The previous high of around $2.70 was reached shortly after listing back in 1997.

The market has had a typical response to this stock. It has always overreacted to bad news and with its run over good news over the last year has done the same again.

Long term investors are in the box seat but if you are here for the fast food equivalent of an investing drive through the share price is getting a little overcooked and you might well be cautious and start thinking about setting an escape price.

If you think CEO Russel Creedy can keep up the good work consistently though, the share price might be just an incidental along the way to far greater things.

No secret recipe, just an obvious market observation.


Restaurant Brands @ Share Investor

RBD - 2011 Half Year Result
RBD - 2010 Quarter one sales
RBD - 2010 Quarter two sales


Most Outstanding Stock of 2010: Restaurant Brands Ltd
Restaurant Brands Ltd: KFC has finally cracked it
Restaurant Brands: KFC Sales Figures Explained - Part 2
Finger Lick'n Good Management
Chart of the Week: Restaurant Brands Ltd
Long Term View: Restaurant Brands Ltd
Stock of Week: Restaurant Brands Ltd
Restaurant Brands: Buy or Sell ?
Pizza Hut sell-off provide opportunities all-round
Danny Diab & Restaurant Brands
2008-2009 KFC sales figures mislead investors
KFC Finally Flying
Starbuck's New Zealand Cup doesn't runneth over
RBD gives KFC a push
McDonald's playing chicken with KFC
Restaurant Brand's Pizza Hut faces increasing competition
RBD sales analysis
RBD saga continues: CEO leaves
The secret recipe is out
2007 FY profit analysis
Delivering increased profit in October 2007
No reason for optimism in latest sales figures

Discuss RBD @ Share Investor Forum
Download RBD company reports


New From Fishpond

A Perfect Gentleman: The Sir Wilson Whineray Story

A Perfect Gentleman: The Sir Wilson Whineray Story


Fishpond


c Share Investor 2010

Monday, November 1, 2010

Sky City Annual Meeting & 2011 - 2012 Profit Forecast

Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd [SKC.NZX] had their 2010 Annual Meeting last Friday and outlined their recent results and where the company is headed in 2011.

The following key points came from this meeting:


  • SKC held its AGM today and provided a trading update for the first quarter. Underlying revenues grew 3.3% while normalized NPAT grew by a similar margin.

  • Underlying NPAT excluding the Cinema business lifted 5%. This was a pleasing performance given the economy in NZ and headwinds in Darwin.

  • The international business revenue was up 85% compared to the first quarter. This was the standout of the first quarter’s performance. A vast majority of this growth occurred in Auckland.

  • The company is making strategic investments in Auckland, Darwin and Adelaide which will lift capital expenditure.
  • No guidance was provided but management said it would be disappointed if it did not achieve consensus NPAT of NZ$127.4m for FY11. This represents a modest decrease over the prior period. “GST increase coupled with cautious spending makes it difficult to predict the full year outcome”.

A research report from Aspect Huntly out October 30 contains the following forecast for 2011 and 2012:

We are modestly cutting our FY11 forecast to NZ$129m to bring it closer to consensus forecast. We should see a pick up in second half earnings especially for Darwin as comparisons become easier. However the Auckland performance is a big unknown. Should the economy gain strength we could see SKC deliver NPAT growth in FY11.

A significant boost in earnings is expected during the Rugby World Cup. Auckland earnings is expected to increase by 20-25% in 1H12 compared to 1H10. This growth will be evenly split between gaming and non gaming income. We are introducing our FY12 NPAT forecast of NZ$140m.

Comments by me on the two streams of forecast information from SKC management and Aspect Huntly tend to favour forecasts by management rather than Aspect. Forecasting profit can be a lot like doing the same with the weather but Aspect's point about the impact of the 2011 Rugby World Cup on the 2012 full year profit is a good one. I would add that I see the bulk of the extra revenue coming from a boost from non gaming income rather than gaming at the Auckland Casino and one should not discount revenue boosts from their other New Zealand casinos in Hamilton Christchurch and Queenstown and to a much lesser extend their casinos in Australia in Darwin and Adelaide.

Interesting that the company is also looking at taking full control of the Christchurch Casino which they currently have an approximately half share in and a big spend up in facilities across the bulk of their casino properties including further gaming possibilities across the ditch. This will clearly have implications for significant increased debt levels in 2011 onwards.

I am confident that the company can exceed their own forecast of $127.4m for FY11 based on the latest operating data for the current quarter ended on September 2010 but remain cautious about increased debt levels.


Sky City Annual Meeting Docs & Related Reading


Meeting Webcast 2010
Annual Meeting Presentation 2010
NZX - 29.10.10 Annual Meeting

Aspect Huntly Research


Sky City Entertainment Group @ Share Investor


Stock of the Week: Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd
Sky City set to lose National Convention Centre bid
Sky City Entertainment Group: Australian Acquisition on the Cards?
Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd: 2010 Full Year Profit Analysis
Sky City Entertainment Group 2010 Full Year Profit Preview
Chart of the Week: Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd
Share Investor discusses Convention Centre proposal with CEO Nigel Morrison
Share Investor Q & A: Sky City CEO, Nigel Morrison
Sky City Entertainment: CEO Nigel Morrison discusses 2010 HY
Sky City Convention Centre Expansion a Money Loser: Part Two
Sky City Convention Centre Expansion a Money loser
Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd: Download full Company analysis
Sky City 2010 full year profit looking good
Long Term View: Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd
Sky City Entertainment: CEO Nigel Morrison discusses 2010 Half Year
Sky City Entertainment Group 2010 Interim Profit Review
Sky City to focus on Gaming
Sky City debts levels now more manageable
Insider Trading on Sky City shares
Sky City Profit Upgrade: Always on the Cards
Sky City's Current Cinema "Boom" a Horror Story in Disguise
Stock of the Week: Sky City Entertainment Group
Are Insiders selling Sky City Stock?
Sky City Entertainment 2009 Interim Result Preamble
2008 Sky City profit analysis
Sky City share offer confusing and unfair for smaller shareholders
Sky City Entertainment 2008 Full Year profit results , NZX release, 2008 full year presentation, result briefing webcast, financial statements
Sky City 2008 profit preamble
Sky City outlines a clear future plan
As recession bites Sky City bites back
Sky City Assets: Buy, sell and hold
Why did you buy that stock? [Sky City Entertainment]
Sky City Share Volumes set tongues wagging
Sky City half year exceptional on cost cutting
NZX Press release: Sky City profit to HY end Dec 2007
Sky City Cinemas no Blockbuster

Sky City Entertainment share price drop
New Broom set to sweep
Sky City Management: Blind, deaf and numb
Sky City sale could be off
Opposition to takeover
Premium for control
Sky City receives takeover bid
Sky City Casino Full Year Profit to June 30 2007
Setting the record straight
Sky City CEO resigns
Sky City Casino: Under performing
Sky City Casino 2007 HY Profit(analysis)
Sky City Casino 2007 HY Profit

Sky City Convention Centre @ Share Investor

Share Investor discusses Convention Centre proposal with CEO Nigel Morrison

Sky City Convention Centre Expansion a Money Loser: Part Two
Sky City Convention Centre Expansion a Money loser
SKC Convention Centre power-point slide illustrations & SKC submission to Auckland City Council

Discuss SKC @ Share Investor Forum



c Share Investor 2010




Allan Hubbard Saga: On Forged Signatures and Uncharitable Trusts

I happened to be down at the Diwali festival in Aotea Square with the family last night and popped into the Borders Bookstore to relieve myself and passed the NBR and couldn't resist a glance (I'm too lazy to get around to subscribing and don't understand what one gets if one subscribes to the online version or paper version. Do you get access to either one whatever sub you buy?) and noticed the inevitable Allan Hubbard story.

The NBR have been one of the best investigative noses around when it comes to the Hubbard saga, especially the financial bloodhound Matt Nippert and in a story dated October 22 he picks apart some dodgy signature work (see document below - click to get bigger picture) done by the aforementioned Mr Hubbard.

I actually did an inner double take when I read this part of that story, could this be true?

From the NBR:

A massive transfer of assets by Allan Hubbard to people Mr Hubbard had power of attorney over is being unwound by statutory managers.

The extent of paper-and-asset shuffling is illustrated by Mr Hubbard’s confirmation to the National Business Review that he signed nearly a dozen forms in late May using the name of Ashburton farmer Andrew Morris.

The document above is farmer Andrew Morris’ signature to become a director of Winton Farm. Below is Allan Hubbard signing Companies Office paperwork as Mr Morris, as part of a significant assets transfer in May 2010

“I just signed using power of attorney,” Mr Hubbard said.

A senior lawyer experienced in using powers of attorney said the “invariable practice” for signing forms using such powers was to append “as attorney acting for” when signing.

The lawyer said Mr Hubbard signing the name “A J Morris” instead of his own was “unusual to say the least – to sign someone else’s name is unheard of.”

Mr Hubbard explained away the irregularities as an oversight. “I thought the lawyers would have done that. There was no ulterior motive.” NBR, October 2010

So hang on a sec, as an individual with power of attorney Hubbard signed someone elses name on Companies Office documents instead of his own on behalf to transfer millions of dollars of his assets to the person he was signing on behalf of?

Yes Darren he did!! (my inner monologue after butter chicken and Coke at Diwali just next door which was banging my head with a big bass Indian beat, but not as rhythmic as my heartbeat after reading the NBR)

Had Hubbard gone mad at this stage? How could he possibly think even he could get away with this sort of nonsense - some would call it fraud, but no not me - it is breathtakingly blatant in its apparently naive execution. Mr Hubbard has countered that his actions were, "always honourable".

I am clearing my throat at this stage as I have something caught in it and it isn't butter chicken.

To get serious for a moment, this has got to be just one of the many transactions made by Hubbard that the Serious Fraud Office is investigating Hubbard and his fellow directors over.

This clearly contravenes the laws covering powers of attorney in relation to the companies office and having the documents at hand and an admission by Hubbard that he signed them makes this a cut and dried case in a court of law.

Makes the light show at the Diwali festival look dull by comparison.

Pass the butter chicken over here, there is more to come.

Related Share Investor Reading

Full SFO Statement on SCF Fraud Investigation

Download Grant Thornton Report 1
Download Grant Thornton Report 2
Download Grant Thornton Report 3
Download Grant Thornton Report 4


Allan Hubbard Saga: Evidence of Fraud now Clear
Allan Hubbard Saga: NBR VS the SFO
Allan Hubbard Saga: South Canterbury Finance to be investigated by the SFO
Allan Hubbard Saga: Third Grant Thornton Report
Allan Hubbard Saga: Will He Walk?
Allan Hubbard Saga: No Longer Bothered by Botherway
Allan Hubbard Saga: 60 Minutes Interview, Sept 23 2010
Allan Hubbard Saga: Supporters head to the exit door
Allan Hubbard Saga: Threats & the Mysterious PWC Report
Allan Hubbard Supporters: Conflict of Interest
VW Veneer reveals BMW heart
VIDEO: Jenni McManus Explains Allan Hubbard Collapse
Allan Hubbard Statement on SCF Receivership
VIDEO: Sandy Maier - full news conference on SCF Receivership
Market Alert: South Canterbury Finance to be placed in Receivership
Allan Hubbard: Ignorant Supporters Blissfully Unaware
Thornton Report 2: Allan Hubbard Guilty as Charged
Allan Hubbard: Full TV3 Interview - July 16 2010
Thornton Report 1: Allan Hubbard's Aorangi Securities
Bothered by Simon Botherway

From Fishpond.co.nz

A Perfect Gentleman: The Sir Wilson Whineray Story

A Perfect Gentleman: The Sir Wilson Whineray Story



c Share Investor 2010

October 2010 Top Stock: Michael Hill International Ltd



Michael Hill International Ltd [MHI.NZX] has been a standout performer over October.

It put on 20% over the month on news that Kim Kardashian is going to be spokesperson for a competition being held to promote MHI in the USA and news that the company had a good sales quarter to 30 September 2010.

The 81c per share MHI is trading at is a 2 year high so takes us back to pre-2008 global crash prices. It is well short of the $1.20 (post a 1:10 share split at approx $12 per share) it was trading at in December 2007 however. This share price was inflated due to the anticipation of that share split and pre problems in Canada and the USA and the overall market exuberance at the time.

The last quarter sales figures are extremely good but that must be tempered with the fact that the most important trading period for the company is the quarter that ends December 31 2010.

Like most retailers MHI make the bulk of their profit at Christmas and we all know that people are just not buying - apart from the last quarter at MHI - and the company needs to exceed 2009 half sales by some margin to justify the large increase in share price.

If it doesn't there will be another opportunity to buy this stock at post Christmas sales in January 2011.


Disc
I own MHI shares in the Share Investor Portfolio



Michael Hill International @ Share Investor


Michael Hill International: Is Kim Kardashian the right fit?
Michael Hill International: Tall Tales & Rumours
Hill Family makes Claytons Takeover bid for Michael Hill International
Michael Hill International Ltd: 2010 Full Year Profit Analysis
Long Term View: Michael Hill International Ltd
Michael Hill International: 2010 half year profit commentary
Michael Hill Makeover kicks off
Michael Hill International: 2009 full year profit commentary
Toughen Up: What I have learned from the hard times
Stock of the Week: Michael Hill International
Michael Hill TV3 60 Minutes Interview
Long VS Short: Michael Hill International
Marketwatch: Michael Hill International
Michael Hill's profit shines
Michael Hill takes on the windy city
Why did you buy that stock? [Michael Hill International]
MHI has defined growth strategy
MHI profit sparkles

Discuss MHI @ Share Investor Forum
Download MHI Company Reports