Monday, April 6, 2009

What 11 years of Stockmarket investing has taught me

This might be depressing or revealing or both but hang on dear readers you just might learn from my experience.

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If I knew what I know now before I started investing in the stockmarket 11 years ago would I still invest today?

I think that is a really good question.

Again it is a question of long VS short term investing.

The first stockmarket investment I made was quite large at the time. It was around 90% of what I owned at the time. I bought 9600 Telstra shares in March 1998, from memory at about $3.9o something, and sold them 4 days latter for $4.47. I made around $4000 very quickly and got bitten buy the stockmarket bug.

The brokerage was around 600 bucks, no internet trading and getting a broker was akin to joining a secret schoolboy club.

My second investment was made in 1998 (7 April to be exact), was for 1000 shares in the Restaurant Brands [RBD.NZ] IPO at NZ $2.20 per share. If I had held on until last week I would have been able to sell RBD shares at around 80c each. If you include dividends and tax credits totaling around $1.20 I would still be short 20c per share! (see chart below for the sad story)


I sold out years ago at around $1.30.

Interesting that I was to pick the buy and hold approach to investing because since these two purchases stockmarket investors have seen:

*The Asian meltdown of the late 1990s
*The tech bubble bursting in 2000
*9-11, where stocks dropped afterward for many months
*The accounting scandals in America in 2002
*2007- ? The credit meltdown and associated recession

I have learnt along the way and I am still learning.

I bought one internet stock that I lost money on (around $3000) sold all my shares on September 11 and lost a little and then started investing in Sky City Entertainment [SKC.NZ] shares in 2002 and then sold during the accounting scandal for another small loss.

Looking back I can see how much of an A-grade moron I really was.

I shouldn't have bought the internet stock, that was greedy and I shouldn't have sold in 2001 or 2002. They were mistakes but I learnt from them.

I started my current portfolio in 2002 and haven't looked back since. Seven years latter it is still in the black (when dividends and tax credits are included) even after all the recent stockmarket calamity-among the worst in living memory-and I am looking forward to a good return as the years go by.

It took me until 2002 to develop my investment strategy, a full five years after my first stock purchase, and it has been from my mistakes that I have learned the bulk of what I now know.

I knew nothing of the stockmarket 11 years ago, the most I had heard or seen about it was when I saw Michael Douglas in Wall Street 10 years previously and even then it was as foreign to me as a brain cell is to Al Gore.

After 11 years, knowing what I know now would I still invest in the stockmarket?

I will keep you posted.



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The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition) (Collins Business Essentials)The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition) (Collins Business Essentials) by Benjamin Graham
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Friday, April 3, 2009

The Headliner: 2 April 2009 Edition


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Direct from my Mysterious Benefactor comes another edition of one of New Zealand's leading finance papers, The Headliner.

This April 2 edition has a major story on Sky Television [SKT.NZ] and its coming battle with Tivo.


It also covers something I have missed, a foray by Jan Cameron to buy more shares in Postie Plus Group [PPG.NZ] She now owns a whopping 17.75% for a very low total price.

It also skips over retailers Hallenstein Glasson [HLG.NZ] and Briscoe Group [BGR.NZ] with a look at results and future prospects.

Pike River Coal, GPG and Cavalier are also given the once over.

The Headliner has an interesting Portfolio picks section. Here are this edition's picks:

Pike River Coal [PRC.NZ]

Lyttleton Port [LPC.NZ]

Northland Port [NTH.NZ]

F & P Appliances [FPA.NZ]

Just Water [JWI.NZ]

Nothing I would have chosen except perhaps Fisher & Paykel Appliances and only below 20c.

To my mysterious benefactor thank you and please keep them coming.

Disclosure: I own PPG, BGR, & HLG


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Wednesday, April 1, 2009

Hairy "T"










This is the gift that just keeps on giving.

Paul Henry can be annoying but that is part of his charm.

I'm going to buy one and send it to Stephanie Mills.

Watch the video here and wonder at the same time why the fuss?

c Political Animal 2009


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Emotional Refuse

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Further to my criticism in February of recent detractors of Warren Buffett's moves to "buy up US stocks", Steve Jordan from The Omaha World-Herald adds another dimension to my argument for me when he quotes me back contrasting my contention that Warren knows his business VS Doug Kass who reckons Buffett is dead wrong in his long-term investment approach:

Bloggers are fighting over whether Warren Buffett's recent financial plays have been wrong or wise. Darren Rickard of the Stock Market & Business Blog sought to refute Doug Kass of RealMoney Silver and TheStreet.com, who said Buffett's strategies are "stale" and don't work these days. Kass cited the declining value of several investments Buffett has made since last fall, plus the 38 percent drop in Berkshire Hathaway's own stock price. Rickard said such criticism is shortsighted and that critics "haven't given Buffett's big bets a time to play out." "Warren Buffett has faced similar stock market and economic meltdowns before, bet huge sums while stocks were affected by these meltdowns and always managed to come out smelling of roses," Rickard wrote. , Omaha World-Herald Feb 8, 2009

I missed this in my February diatribe, Doug Kass points out that Buffett's Berkshire has suffered a 38% drop in share price but what stock hasn't in this market?

Share price isn't always a reflection of real value. Like Kass' view of the stockmarket, this is short term thinking and it is wrong. Stock prices will fluctuate for manifold reasons other than concrete results and the Berkshire Hathaway stock price has been murdered far below its recent results, mostly for emotional rather than actual reasons.

The same is true of many listed stocks in New Zealand.

Emotion has departed from reality and taken some stocks down the road less traveled towards dead mans curve.

There are bargains out there, Warren Buffett is buying them and commentators like Doug Kass are doing their best to make him look bad in the short-term.

I am willing to admit that the great Sage of Omaha could be wrong this time but on the balance of probability it would be a foolish man who would bet against him.

Just be patient, Buffett has spent the last 80 years doing just that and his results speak for themselves.

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How to Pick Stocks Like Warren Buffett: Profiting from the Bargain Hunting Strategies of the World's Greatest Value Investor
How to Pick Stocks Like Warren Buffett: Profiting from the Bargain Hunting Strategies of the World's Greatest Value Investor by Timothy Vick
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