National leader John Key's honeymoon with voters is starting to look like a very comfortable marriage.
National has barely budged from governing-alone territory in our Fairfax Media-Nielsen poll - last November being the previous occasion when it dipped below 50 per cent.
Labour's situation may not yet be irredeemable - it will be heartened that, on this result, it is within cooee of the 39 per cent of the vote it gained in 1999 to win the election. It won in 2002 with 41.2 per cent of the vote and in 2005 with 41.5 per cent.
But the numbers don't tell the full story - and comparisons to dog tucker are becoming harder to dodge.
In 1999, 2002 and 2005, Labour won against a diminished National Party and though its poll ratings appear to be holding up, that has come at the expense of the minor parties - not National.
Continued
Fairfax Nielson Poll: 19 July 2008
Fairfax Neilson Poll: 21 June 2008
Fairfax Neilson Poll: 17 May 2008
Fairfax Neilson Poll: 23 Feb 2008
c Stuff.co.nz & Political Animal 2008
Saturday, August 16, 2008
POLL: Fairfax Nielson 16 August 2008
Posted by Share Investor at 6:35 AM 0 comments
Labels: Fairfax Nielson 16 August 2008
Friday, August 15, 2008
Woolworths to seek leave to appeal to Supreme Court
As I tipped yesterday, and the first scoop for The Share Investor Blog, the decision for either Woolworths Australia[WOW:ASX] or Foodstuffs to make an appeal to the Supreme Court to challenge the decision made in the Court of Appeal was imminent, little did I know it was going to be announced an hour ago.
Woolworths announced this afternoon that they would seek leave from the Supreme Court to appeal the decision made against them and Foodstuffs in the Appeal Court 11 working days ago.
The Commerce Commission's Paula Rebstock will be positively apoplectic with rage and will fight this hard in the Supreme Court in Wellington.
Woolworths making the announcement is significant because they appear to be the most likely winner in a all out bidding war should the Warehouse be allowed to sold.
Woollies have the deepest pockets and today they are showing how aggressive they can be by being first out of the gate to inform the market that they are going all the way.
Given the hard edged nature of their business practice across the Tasman it is my opinion that they will be the owner of the Warehouse in due course.
When will The Warehouse bidders make their move?
Long vs Short: The Warehouse Group
Warehouse bidders ready to lay money down
The Warehouse set to cut lose "extra" impediment
Warehouse appeal decision imminent
Warehouse decision a loser for all
Warehouse Court of appeal decision in Commerce Commission's favour
MARKETWATCH: The Warehouse
The Warehouse takeover saga continues
Why did you buy that stock? [The Warehouse]
History of Warehouse takeover players suggest a long winding road
Court of Appeal delays Warehouse bid
The Warehouse set for turbulent 2008
The Warehouse Court of Appeal case lay in "Extras" hands
WHS Court of Appeal case could be dismissed next week
Commerce Commission impacts on the Warehouse bottom line
The Warehouse in play
Outcomes of Commerce Commission decision
The fight for control begins soon
Share Investor Forum-Discuss this topic
Related Links
The Warehouse Financial Data
Related Amazon Reading
Wal-Smart: What It Really Takes to Profit in a Wal-Mart World by William H. Marquard
Buy new: $19.46 / Used from: $0.92
Usually ships in 24 hours
c Share Investor 2008 & 2009
Posted by Share Investor at 5:34 PM 0 comments
Labels: The Warehouse takeover, Woolworths seeks leave to appeal to Supreme Court
Roy Morgan Poll: 15 August 2008
Whatever Labour has tried to do to peg back the polls it isnt working. National lead with a consistent large margin.
Looks like it is plan b for Labour-give everyone $10000.00 if they vote for them.
Finding No. 4314 - Latest New Zealand Morgan Poll for mid August conducted with 834 New Zealand electors over the period of July 28 - August 10.: August 15, 2008
In mid August 2008 the New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National Party support at 48% (up 0.5%) still well ahead of the Labour Party 34% (up 1.5%), if an election were held now the National Party would win.
Support for the Greens was 7.5% (down 0.5%), NZ First 6.5% (up 1.5%), Maori Party 2% (down 1%), ACT NZ 1.5% (down 1%) and Others 0.5% (down 0.5%).
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has risen for the second New Zealand Morgan Poll in a row, rising strongly to 103.5 (up 12pts). It is now at its highest level since being at 104.5 in early May. Now more New Zealanders 44.5% (up 6%) say the country is “heading in the right direction” compared to 41% (down 6%) that say the country is “heading in the wrong direction.”
There has been a similar rise in the Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating which has also strengthened, up 7.1 points to 94.9, and up 12.9 points since early July.
Gary Morgan says:
“Support for Helen Clark’s Government remains weak, although the National Party has lost the momentum it has held for much of the year.
“Revelations of a ‘secret agenda’ revealed by bugging at the recent National Party Conference have led voters to re-evaluate what the National Party is actually offering New Zealanders.
“If the vote continues to tighten New Zealanders can look forward to a Coalition Government perhaps comprising the Greens or New Zealand First.”
Electors were asked: “If an election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”
This latest Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 836 electors from July 28 - August 10, 2008.
Continued
Roy Morgan Poll: August 1 2008
Roy Morgan Poll: July 18 2008
c Political Animal 2008
Posted by Share Investor at 5:23 PM 0 comments
Labels: Roy Morgan Poll August 15 2008
Carbon trading legislation looks set to be rammed through
There is a rumour circulating around Wellington that Labour have been secretly meeting with the Greens and NZ First over the stalled Carbon credit trading legislation that Labour want to desperately pass.
They only have just over 2 weeks to pass the legislation needed to allow carbon credit trading to begin in New Zealand.
Now apart from the fact that Carbon Credit trading is based on the whole global warming, sorry "climate change", fraud, passing such negatively impactive legislation in a rushed manner is going to cause more problems than it will seemingly "solve".
The collapse of such a trading system is inevitable , as it is based on a "good" that is worth precisely nothing. You want to rush through half arsed legislation to bring in this kind of dodgy stuff?
Please no!
All I can hope is that the trek up the mountain yesterday by David Parker, Energy Minister and Climate Change zealot, will knock some sense into him and he will do a 180 degree turn.
Related Political Animal reading
Kyoto critic comes to town
Global warming: Power to the people
Carbon Credit trading puts markets at extreme risk
Global Warning: Tax iceberg ahead
Unstoppable global warming
Earth Day: Turn on, tune out, buy some candles
TIME magazine slips inconvenient truth past its readers
The Great Global Warming Swindle
PRIME TV PRESENTS: The Great Global Warming Swindle
Kristen Byrnes-Ponder the Maunder
Helen Clark and Jeanette Fitzsimmons in conflict with business
Of tulip bulbs and tooth fairies
c Political Animal 2008
Posted by Share Investor at 8:06 AM 0 comments
Labels: carbon trading legislation