Reporting season a true indicator of company value

The New Zealand reporting season kicks off this month and regardless of the sub prime fallout and all its associated negative connotations, financial results and future indication of direction are still the main indication of company health and its possible day to day market value.


Mainfreight will face margin pressures in New Zealand
but is likely to get increased business from their global
divisions.


The subprime fallout was expected to vary widely on Kiwi companies. Of our top 30 stocks reporting, 10 were indicative of their respective fields: Auckland International Airport(AIA), Briscoes(BGR), Telecom(TEL), Freightways(FRE), Fletcher Building(FBU), Goodman Fielder(GFF), Contact Energy(CEN), Tourism Holdings(THL), PGG Wrightson(PGG) and The Warehouse(WHS).

Many of the above will be conservative in their indications for profit in the coming year.

Many companies have already indicated profit warnings, Hallensteins Glassons(HLG) and Postie Plus(PPG) have come to the table, while many companies have indicated flat earnings, The Warehouse, Telecom, Contact Energy, Sky City Entertainment(SKC), Pumpkin Patch(PPL) and Freightways have all indicated pressure on margins over the past year.

The pressure has come mainly from government intervention. Increased labour costs through a higher minimum wage, 1 week extra holiday and paid maternity leave have all pressured businesses and margins. Clearly those companies with very high staff numbers will be affected by this, retailers especially.

In addition to the above, more Government associated paperwork for administration staff has lead to lower productivity.

More Government pressure from reckless spending has led to higher interest rates, for consumers and lending for business, and the increases in energy costs, due to Government dictated taxes on petrol and electricity have made 2007 a bad year and are due to get considerably worse in 2008.

There maybe some surprises on the upside during the current reporting season.

Mainfrieght(MFT) looks like a good bet to increase profit and Restaurant Brands(RBD), the often talked about whipping boy here should show an increase from a very low comparison this time last year.

Fletcher Building’s half-year after-tax result was forecast by ABN to increase 13.5% from $NZ193m last year to $219m this year and their order book for future work is still going to be over NZ$ 1 billion.

This reporting season seems like a turning point for investors to me.

They must make up their minds whether they want to hold their investments during a coming hard year or run crying for the hills with their share proceeds in their hands.

Fortune will favour those who hang on to good companies and if you are buying shares for the first time or adding to your portfolio, look for good management first before anything else, for it is good managers with a track record that will be able to ride out the inevitable tough times.

I'm ready to face the coming months, good or bad, and reporting season is definitely an exciting time for this investor.


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Disclosure: I own SKC, MFT, AIA, GFF,PLL,PPG,FRE,FBU and WHS shares

C Share Investor 2008

NZX Share Trades with Strings Attached

While trying to put a market order in today on the NZAX for Burger Fuel (BFW) it appears an individual cannot make his own mind up just what the market price for a particular share is on a given day.

I wasn't fully aware of this, only just in passing but for shares trading between 10c - $1 you have to bid a minimum of .7 multiplied by the closing price of the share on the previous day. Shares above $1 are multiplied by .8 , shares between 5-10c .6 and below 5c .5.

This little market manipulator came into force early July 2007 and really pumps my blood warmer than a ten year old relieving himself in a public pool on a cold Winters day!

I mean where do Mark Weldon and co get off, it is a Market Limit , what that means to this capitalist pig is that the market is supposed to decide what a share or company is worth on a given day, prospective shareholders are the market and it should be up to us to decide what value we place on a company.

I can understand why this little handbrake may have been applied-to stop a market from sliding too quickly on a bad trading day-but surely this kind of market manipulation must be open to all sorts of jiggery-pokery?

I'm quite sure the upper offer market limits are not enforced similarly so why the hell do weak companies need their hands held as their share prices get hammered on any given day?

Quite frankly they don't and Mark Weldon and the NZX board would be wise to take another look at this recent hamstringing of a so-called free share market and let the market decide what New Zealand listed companies are worth.

Incidentally, I wanted to bid $NZ .20c for 5000 BFW shares as the share price as of today has fallen almost 15% to .65c today. I have lowered my value of the company as I see further costs related to increased borrowing for the company and possible franchisees having an affect on medium term growth, expansion and obviously profit.


Related Share Investor Reading


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Discuss Burger Fuel @ Share Investor Forum




c Share Investor 2007

Take an Investment tip from New Zealand's NZX

The favourite topic for us investor hounds and writers of the moment is the weakening global share markets.

New Zealand is always first to react on Monday after the previous Fridays close on Wall Street.

React it did today by falling almost 40 points or 1%. Already down sharply on Friday 10 August New Zealand time our market takes the lead and has no other influence until Australia's ASX opens 12 Noon NZ time.

Today the ASX lead its own way up, Asian Markets followed somewhat and it will be interesting to see what Wall Street does New York time Monday morning 13 August.

The thrust of this piece is really that if you look to the New Zealand market, the NZX, we really have an advantage because when world markets close during our morning hours we have a chance to digest the figures from other regions , make a decision and act upon it when our share market gets going at 10.00am. Perhaps then making more rational and considered decisions instead of the spur of the moment stuff that international bourses tend to respond to.

Of course very few international investors know that New Zealand even has a share market but if they did they would find it an advantage to follow what is going on down here in the respect of investor sentiment in a region that is first to open.

Clearly the NZX doesn't have economic impact but international market watchers need all the information and advantage they can when looking at the impact their own portfolios could have and behave when their markets open the following day.


Recommended Fishpond Reading



Buy The Intelligent Investor & more @ Fishpond.co.nz




c Share Investor 2007