Monday, February 28, 2011

Share Price Alert: Fletcher Building Ltd



Give to those affected by the Christchurch Quake here

Fletcher Building Ltd [FBU.NZX] is but one stock listed on the NZX that has benefited from speculation based on probable contracts to reconstruct Christchurch after the massive earthquake there last week that destroyed a great deal of the city and its infrastructure.

Clearly FBU do set to gain from this tragedy and the share price has gained rapidly over the last week since the Tuesday 22 event. The share price pre-quake was $8.28 and at close of trading last Friday finished at $8.63, a gain of around 4% in a market that is otherwise heading south.

The stock has risen by around 13% since the beginning of 2011 on news of a good 2011 full year result.

The only question for investors is that just when the re-construction of Christchurch can begin and of course just when the income for that re-construction appears on company books.

While the current share price is breaking 6 month highs it appears that the market now sees this stock as a relative bargain if the Christchurch factor is entered into the equation.

Proceed with caution if you are interested in this company as initial share price movements could be the market overreacting to the Christchurch quake and subsequent trading could see some selling.

Disc I own FBU shares in the Share Investor Portfolio


Share Price Alert

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Share Investor Portfolio: Value at 28 February 2011

The Share Investor Portfolio fell in the last week of February. The portfolio was down 1.78% or $4937.71 on the Feb 21 update . For the first 8 weeks of 2011 the portfolio has increased by 2.37% or $5753.93. This weeks fall was due, primarily, to small falls in most stocks due to the possible negative economic fallout from the Christchurch Earthquake

There has also been a profit result that has added cash dividends to the portfolio. AIA has paid dividends.

The total of unspent dividends and interest in the bank from the 2010 - 2011 earnings years is $20684.21 at close of reporting season for 2010 and partway through the 2011 year. There are also approx $50000.00 in tax credits earned from the portfolio since it began in late 2002.


Share Investor Portfolio as at 17:30:00, Friday 25 February, 2011 (NZDT)


Stock
Quantity
Cost price
Total cost
Market price
Market value
Change
%
AIA

2,000 $1.700 $3,400.00 $2.240 $4,480.00 $1,080.00 31.76%
AIA

2,000 $1.510 $3,020.00 $2.240 $4,480.00 $1,460.00 48.34%
AIA

558 $0.000 $0.00 $2.240 $1,249.92 $1,249.92
AIA

754 $2.150 $1,621.10 $2.240 $1,688.96 $67.86 4.19%
ASBPB

3,027 $0.000 $0.00 $0.715 $2,164.31 $2,164.31
ASBPB

6,973 $1.000 $6,973.00 $0.715 $4,985.70 $1,987.31 28.50%
BGR

438 $0.000 $0.00 $1.370 $600.06 $600.06
BGR

2,562 $0.990 $2,536.38 $1.370 $3,509.94 $973.56 38.38%
FBU

284 $0.000 $0.00 $8.630 $2,450.92 $2,450.92
FBU

830 $9.750 $8,092.50 $8.630 $7,162.90 $929.60 11.49%
FPH

3,000 $2.350 $7,050.00 $3.050 $9,150.00 $2,100.00 29.79%
FPH

541 $0.000 $0.00 $3.050 $1,650.05 $1,650.05
FPH

1,459 $3.720 $5,427.48 $3.050 $4,449.95 $977.53 18.01%
FRE

2,054 $0.000 $0.00 $3.250 $6,675.50 $6,675.50
FRE

6,577 $3.630 $23,874.51 $3.250 $21,375.25 $2,499.26 10.47%
GFF

541 $0.000 $0.00 $1.690 $914.29 $914.29
GFF

1,459 $2.330 $3,399.47 $1.690 $2,465.71 $933.76 27.47%
HLG

244 $0.000 $0.00 $3.650 $890.60 $890.60
HLG

756 $2.530 $1,912.68 $3.650 $2,759.40 $846.72 44.27%
KIP

190 $0.000 $0.00 $0.990 $188.10 $188.10
KIP

810 $1.480 $1,198.80 $0.990 $801.90 $396.90 33.11%
MFT

1,000 $7.960 $7,960.00 $8.080 $8,080.00 $120.00 1.51%
MFT

1,838 $8.000 $14,704.00 $8.080 $14,851.04 $147.04 1.00%
MFT

657 $0.000 $0.00 $8.080 $5,308.56 $5,308.56
MFT

1,505 $4.200 $6,321.00 $8.080 $12,160.40 $5,839.40 92.38%
MHI

1,646 $0.860 $1,415.56 $0.880 $1,448.48 $32.92 2.33%
MHI

7,000 $0.630 $4,410.00 $0.880 $6,160.00 $1,750.00 39.68%
MHI

494 $1.050 $518.70 $0.880 $434.72 $83.98 16.19%
MHI

860 $0.000 $0.00 $0.880 $756.80 $756.80
PPG

31 $0.000 $0.00 $0.270 $8.37 $8.37
PPG

1,500 $0.440 $660.00 $0.270 $405.00 $255.00 38.64%
PPG

1,004 $0.800 $803.20 $0.270 $271.08 $532.12 66.25%
PPL

1,000 $3.090 $3,090.00 $1.390 $1,390.00 $1,700.00 55.02%
PPL

1,000 $2.870 $2,870.00 $1.390 $1,390.00 $1,480.00 51.57%
PPL

939 $4.200 $3,943.80 $1.390 $1,305.21 $2,638.59 66.90%
PPL

877 $0.000 $0.00 $1.390 $1,219.03 $1,219.03
PPL

1,184 $1.530 $1,811.52 $1.390 $1,645.76 $165.76 9.15%
RYM

459 $0.000 $0.00 $2.340 $1,074.06 $1,074.06
RYM

4,586 $1.970 $9,034.42 $2.340 $10,731.24 $1,696.82 18.78%
SKC

5,750 $7.430 $42,722.50 $3.260 $18,745.00 $23,977.50 56.12%
SKC

1,000 $7.600 $7,600.00 $3.260 $3,260.00 $4,340.00 57.11%
SKC

2,750 $7.700 $21,175.00 $3.260 $8,965.00 $12,210.00 57.66%
SKC

1,431 $8.750 $12,521.25 $3.260 $4,665.06 $7,856.19 62.74%
SKC

272 $4.720 $1,283.84 $3.260 $886.72 $397.12 30.93%
SKC

25,712 $0.000 $0.00 $3.260 $83,821.12 $83,821.12
STU

78 $0.000 $0.00 $2.590 $202.02 $202.02
STU

303 $4.740 $1,436.22 $2.590 $784.77 $651.45 45.36%
WHS

4,500 $3.730 $16,785.00 $3.450 $15,525.00 $1,260.00 7.51%
WHS

6,979 $6.000 $41,874.00 $3.450 $24,077.55 $17,796.45 42.50%
WHS

2,880 $0.000 $0.00 $3.450 $9,936.00 $9,936.00
WHS

641 $3.710 $2,378.11 $3.450 $2,211.45 $166.66 7.01%

18.99%


Total cost Market value Change

$273,824.04 $325,812.89 $51,988.85



Share Investor Portfolio @ Share Investor

Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 21 February 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 14 February 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 7 February 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 31 January 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 24 January 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 17 January 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 10 January 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 3 January 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 27 December 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 20 December 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 13 December 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 6 December 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 29 November 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 22 November 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 15 November 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 8 November 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 1 November 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 25 October 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 18 October 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 11 October 2010
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Sunday, February 27, 2011

2010 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Letter

It is fitting that my 1000th post on the Share Investor Blog is about one of my favourite topics in terms of business, finance and investing.

Warren Buffett!

He has his 2010 Berkshire Hathaway Letter just out a few hours ago and it is essential reading for all investors, especially nutty Buffett fans like me.

Here is a taster to get you interested:

"Don’t let that reality spook you. Throughout my lifetime, politicians and pundits have constantly moaned about terrifying problems facing America. Yet our citizens now live an astonishing six times better than when I was born. The prophets of doom have overlooked the all-important factor that is certain: Human potential is far from exhausted, and the American system for unleashing that potential–a system that has worked wonders for over two centuries despite frequent interruptions for recessions and even a Civil War–remains alive and effective. We are not natively smarter than we were when our country was founded nor do we work harder. But look around you and see a world beyond the dreams of any colonial citizen. Now, as in 1776, 1861, 1932 and 1941, America’s best days lie ahead."

Apposite advice from an 80 year old at this time given the recent tragedy in Christchurch and the fact that a company that he is the largest shareholder in, Munich Re, will be underwriting the bulk of the losses from the massive Christchurch Earthquake via reinsurance.

My favourite part of the letter though is about debt and its influence on all of us. It is funny but also very wise.

The last word:

"The fundamental principle of auto racing is that to finish first, you must first finish. That dictum is equally applicable to business and guides our every action at Berkshire.


Unquestionably, some people have become very rich through the use of borrowed money. However, that’s also been a way to get very poor. When leverage works, it magnifies your gains. Your spouse thinks you’re clever, and your neighbors get envious. But leverage is addictive.

Once having profited from its wonders, very few people retreat to more conservative practices. And as we all learned in third grade – and some relearned in 2008 – any series of positive numbers, however impressive the numbers may be, evaporates when multiplied by a single zero. History tells us that leverage all too often produces zeroes, even when it is employed by very smart people."


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Thursday, February 24, 2011

Auckland Airport: 2011 Half Year Review

Auckland International Airport Ltd [AIA.NZX] 2011 half year result out today improved significantly on last years result with increases in passenger numbers and freight across the board with significant rises in passenger numbers from the recent aquisitions in Queenstown and Northern Queensland.

The net profit after tax of $61.536 million was up 14% on last years half on revenue of $198 million, up 8.7 % on last year.

Individually, revenue from retail was up strongly and aeronautical derived income rose on increased traffic volumes and increased charges.

All other forms of revenue were up.

Any way an investor looks at this result one would have to be pleased with it, especially after years of fairly static profit levels.

Key Points

Net Profit after tax up 14% to $61.536 million

Revenue up 8.7% to $198 million

Increases in revenue from recent airport acquisitions

Increases in all areas of revenue

Increased dividend to 4c per share


What I am pleased about as an investor is that management have managed to grow income over all parts of their business during a recession. The retail revenue rise of almost 13% was especially significant given the parlous state of retail in general but some of this could be due to a revamp and addition of more retail outlets during expansion in various parts of the airport.

Carparking income rose an impressive $1.2 million, indicating that the captive audience of travelers and visitors has risen well over the last 6 months and that it will continue to grow as passenger numbers do.

It is also worth pointing out that Asian business into the port via new Chinese and other Asian airlines over the last half year is increasing as part of overall revenue growth and airline routes introduced after balance date from asian destinations look set to be a dominant force in the airports medium to long-term future.

Looking forward to the full 2011 year management appear bullish about the result indicating a net profit of $112.0 million to $118.0 million.

This of course should be tempered with the possible economic impacts from the Middle East uprisings via higher oil prices and locally a return to recession and impacts from the Christchurch earthquake.


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Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Christchurch Earthquake Friend Finder

To find friends and loved ones in the Christchurch earthquake and to let others know you are safe go to the Google Christchurch Earthquake friend finder.

To donate funds to the Christchurch Earthquake Appeal:

The Salvation Army appeal could call 0800 53 00 00 or do it online at www.salvationarmy.org.nz or to Westpac account 03 0207 0617331 00.

Monday, February 21, 2011

Guest Post - Michele Hewitson Interview: Nigel Morrison


I have done a few interviews (1, 2, 3) with Nigel Morrison from Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd [SKC.NZX] but Nigel has been raising his profile of late with bold statements to the media and a general interview with Michele Hewitson from the NZ Herald (see below for the full interview)about himself.

He has kept a low profile over the last few years, preferring to let results do the talking so the move to raising his own personal profile and the aggressiveness of his previous neutral stance on the politics of gambling have me scratching my head a little.

There will be an interview with Auckland Airport CEO Simon Moutter coming up over the next few weeks.

Here is the Michele Hewitson Interview:

The idea was to have breakfast with SkyCity chief executive Nigel Morrison at SkyCity Grand.

Good, I thought, greedily, because I do like a posh hotel breakfast, even when it is to be taken with an accountant. He is a grand sort of accountant, of course - which is what he started his ladder-climbing corporate career as - and the big boss, but nobody knew he was coming for breakfast.

This caused a tremendous fuss involving much bustling about, many staff and the transformation of the boardroom into a breakfast room with pitchers of water and butter curls and a la carte menus.

I carried out a thorough examination of the breakfast buffet while waiting and later told him, a little sourly, that his toaster didn't work (it is one of those silly revolving ones they always have in hotel breakfast rooms and which never work properly). He seemed not remotely interested but I wouldn't be surprised if an investigation is carried out.

We didn't have any breakfast, which is why I was sour on his toaster: hunger can make you mean. We had a cup of coffee. We didn't even sit at that perfectly laid table. An hour later I said,

"You sent them into an enormous flurry and you didn't even have breakfast." He said, dismissively, that his communications manager "wasn't organised".

Honestly, he could have just said, "Oh, well, I was busy and forgot to tell anyone', and taken the blame, but I suppose you don't get to be the CEO of a big casino by sweating the small stuff, like not bagging your staff in front of a journalist. I think he belatedly realised that he was supposed to have given me breakfast, although what did he think the laying of the table was for? He said, brusquely, "Would you like something?", but too late.

This tells you about all you need to know about his style. He says he's English but he arrived in Australia when he was 10 and I'd say he took to it, and it to him, rather well.

His father was from the industrial town of Gainsborough and one of 10 children. He left school at 14 to work in a steel mill and, his son the CEO, told me proudly, went on to became "one of the youngest professionally qualified mechanical engineers in the UK".

So being competitive and wanting to succeed is likely both nature and nurture. The move to Australia was to create "an opportunity for us, my brother and I, to have, I think, relatively successful lives".

His brother is a property developer who has "probably got a lot more!" money than he does. "Relatively successful" is relative then, because he makes about $2 million a year. When I asked how much he made, he said, "Oh, not a lot".

I said, "Two million", and he said, "A couple of million", and I said, "More than two million", and that went on for a bit. Anyway it is about two million (made up of bonuses and shares and so on), but: is that a lot? "Well, it is a lot of money. It's not a lot when you compare it ... I'm probably the lowest paid of any of the top senior executives in Australasian gaming companies." This doesn't bother him, at least, "not really". So perhaps a bit.

Well, what is his job? He runs the show, obviously, but what is the show? There are three SkyCity-owned casinos in NZ and two in Australia. But a casino is not just a place you go to gamble any more; they are mini, or not so mini-empires. I referred to these as his not so little fiefdoms and he didn't disagree.

He says he has to have some sort of profile, but: "Why have you come to see me?" He meant that the interest is only in his title, not in him. He once said he had lots of friends who turned out to be friends only because he could get them into flash dos.

He does meet celebrities and in answer to my question about whether he was impressed by celebrity, he said: "Oh, look! I'll tell you, you're talking about the joys of this industry ... I got to meet Bob Geldof! ... [He] has the capacity to make you feel like you're the only person in the room and that really is engaging."

He was so interested in this, I think, because he told me that the schmoozing side of his job hasn't come naturally and that it took him until he was in his 30s (he is 52) to feel comfortable with the hobnobbing. "I had to learn it."

He has just been named on an Auckland 1st XV list of ambassadors for the Rugby World Cup. Some of the other people on this list: John Walker, Carol Hirschfeld, Simon Gault. It's fair to say he's the least-known person. "Probably. Ha, ha. I'm certainly not a celebrity and most of those others are, but I think it reflects the significance of SkyCity ..."

I said surely his inclusion reflected his significance as a successful lobbyist, for the significance of SkyCity, if you like. "No, it's the fact that we're investing $50 million before the Rugby World Cup, our commitment to the fact that we've got behind what we think is going to be a great event." This amounts to the same thing, I'd say.

He must be pretty good at lobbying. He has to get the council on-side and SkyCity's latest expansionist plan is the upgrade of Federal St: three new restaurants, an air bridge, and the makeover of the street into a place you might actually want to loiter. Currently, it's a dump; he wants glamour - although his idea of glamour also includes sports bars with giant screens.

That's the odd thing about casino empires: you have the pokies and the high rollers and the grand hotel and a girl on the escalator ahead of us as we went up to the gaming floor, who was wearing what you might charitably describe as hooker grunge - all in one empire.

A bingo game had just finished. Bingo! It's back in fashion, apparently. Three hundred people had turned up.

I asked whether he was interested in the psychology of gamblers and he said he had been "lucky enough to work for Kerry Packer" - the famously abrasive Australian businessman who owned casinos and, also famously, gambled millions. He gave Packer's definition of a gambler: "The thing about gamblers is that they know what they're doing is intrinsically wrong so they're always looking for an excuse to leave. I thought that was quite interesting."

I thought that he did think it was interesting might have meant that he has some reservations about the game he's in. By that definition it means that his job is preventing people who know what they're doing is wrong, from leaving his premises.

"So," he said, "you've got to look after them very, very well." He runs a joint which exists to take money off people. "To be honest, what business doesn't? You offer a service or goods. In our case, we offer a service."

When Morrison arrived at SkyCity in 2009, his appointment was announced like this: Casino Boss Brings some Packer Panache. Does he have panache? You wouldn't think so from his assessment which is this: Many at the top of the gaming industry, he says, "have a numerical background, because our business is all about probability. So you've got to understand normal distribution, you need to understand standard deviations, you know, so you can set your risk and return rates".

Did I mention that he's an accountant? You have to have other skills. "Yeah, that's exactly right. You need some sort of people skills." Which some accountants might not have? "Well, you said it."

As for panache, he has bright pink silk lining his suit jacket and shirt cuffs monogrammed with his initials: NBW. The B is for Barclay. I was trying to think of what sort of person has monogrammed shirt cuffs. Unless you are a minor toff with pretensions, all I came up with was foppish.

He said he didn't know what that meant. A bit dandyish. "I wouldn't have said dandyish!" "I don't know. It's probably a bit arrogant." Is he arrogant? "Look, I don't think I really am arrogant. I've probably got a bit of an ego."

His friends, he once said, used to tell him he was too ambitious - which might amount to much the same thing as arrogance. "Where do you get this stuff from? Bloody hell." From what he's said in the past, and now he tells me that he has, in the past been accused of being arrogant. This is a funny thing to admit. "Yeah, hard to believe, isn't it!"

He says his friends probably wouldn't accuse him of overarching ambition these days because he has now achieved a "reasonably balanced life". This means that he only works about 60 hours a week, and sometimes leaves the casino.

He doesn't own a house here but rents "a small, modest house", in St Marys Bay. He showed me the label on his suit, to prove, presumably, that he doesn't splash it about: "Charlie Chang. He's a good tailor. A cheap tailor." He wears a Cartier watch, but a stainless steel one, he was at pains to point out. He denies he's mean with money but - thinking of the savings he made on my breakfast - I think he's cautious, which is what you'd want in a geezer who runs a gaming house.

In a gaming house, the house always wins. He does like to win. He scoffed when I asked if it was true that casinos didn't have clocks. We went over to the casino and I said: Right. Where are the clocks? He eventually located a couple, hidden in dark corners. Nobody could read those! I said.

He said, "Haven't you got a watch?", and looked very pleased with himself. I idiotically said that having his picture taken with the pokies wouldn't be good for his image. That was to pay him back for the win over the clocks, but he took this seriously, and then refused to have his picture taken by the pokies.

He is often described as hard-bitten. He claimed not to know what hard-bitten means. It means a tough bastard. He said, "I don't think I'm that tough to be honest." Oh well, if he says so but I wouldn't want to be the person responsible for not making the breakfast booking.


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Buy Toughen Up: What I've Learned About Surviving Tough Times

Toughen Up: What I've Learned About Surviving Tough Times

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