When your taxi driver, next door neighbour and friends at barbecues start talking about how much money they have made buying carbon credits on the NZX, which start trading in New Zealand in July 2010, you will know it is time to exit the New Zealand Stockmarket, and other global stockmarkets as well.
Whether you think the theory behind climate change, which carbon trading is supposed to help ameliorate, is true or not - and it has been proven it isn't - carbon trading is going to be the buzz phrase of 2010 and beyond. As the price for these carbon credits increases, and it will, it is going to take stockmarkets on a ride with it not seen since the Internet boom on the late 90s.
Like that boom though, Carbon Credits have no real assets behind them to back them up, they are simply "made up" and the revenue that flows from these credits is based on political maneuvers and manipulation rather than real economics, so the ride isn't going to last forever.
As I picked almost 2 years ago I expect a bull run for the NZX in 2011, for different reasons back then but the carbon trading market is going to be part of the resurgence.
This isn't about knocking global warming or carbon trading though, because others do it better and quite frankly it is easy to do because of the sheer kookiness of it all. This is about my strategy to get out of the stockmarket before the carbon trading market inevitably collapses and takes everything else down with it.
I prefer my own exit strategy, I don't like being pushed. but I reckon i will have little choice once this pile of bullshit gains momentum.
How bad it will be nobody knows but the carbon trading market is likely to get intertwined in every facet of our lives as well as our financial markets so any fallout from its collapse will be significant.
I just have to wait for those first signs to come and for every Al (oh hang on HE already is and is already making moola out of it), Dick and Harriet to start blabbing constantly about it and I know the market will be near its peak.
Keep that in mind if you are going to get into carbon trading directly or the stockmarket in general and head for the exits if you dont want to lose your carbon neutral shirt.
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Recommended Amazon Reading
Red Hot Lies: How Global Warming Alarmists Use Threats, Fraud, and Deception to Keep You Misinformed by Christopher C. Horner
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c Share Investor 2009