Saturday, June 13, 2009

Contrarian Investor: Doris Mousdale

A few months ago I decided to get all Pollyanna-ish, to stop writing about the economy in the doldrums, because it is going to do what it is going to do and instead focus on stocks, business and as some in the financial world say look at things "going forward". The contrarian investor approach if you like.






Doris Mousdale

A positive spin, because I am sick of the mind numbing daily focus, usually inaccurate and at its worst pure guess work, of talking heads telling us how bad it is and how long it is going to last.

With this in mind I am going to do a series on people or businesses that are doing the opposite to everyone else.

Growing instead of retrenching, starting business rather than closing and hiring instead of firing - you get the picture.

I suppose I was inspired by Michael Hill's interview on 60 Minutes this last Monday where he told us that he was more positive and excited about his Michael Hill International [MHI.NZ] Jewelry business than any time in his life.

The man is looking at the global economic downturn as an opportunity to expand, get cheap retail sites and reach 1000 stores by 2020.

With this positive theme in mind lets take a look at the book business and one person in particular that has been in the business for many, many years, Doris Mousdale.

She has had positions with Whitcoulls, Dymocks, Real Groovy. Made redundant from her position with Dymocks in April she has decided to open up her own bookstore, Anthology, in Auckland's Newmarket shopping district.

Now with a very competitive book market in New Zealand and with book chains downsizing, shutting and moving head offices to Australia, Mousdale certainly has taken the bull by the horns and gone in the opposite direction.

She thinks her personal touch as an owner operator and experience in the book industry will mark her out from other book retailers:

"I'm feeling quite confident about it, I think the independent bookstore has a lot to offer the surrounding community. There are still people out there who want the next best read, and they want it recommended to them." See full story.

I think she is right. A point of difference is crucial to survival in business, especially in retail, especially in the cut-throat book biz and most certainly during an economic downturn.

Mousdale has a niche to fill - experience and personal service- because she cannot compete on price and title range with the Borders of this world and her move to position herself where she is , is canny to say the least.

This comes on top of a broad downturn in all retail and a movement away from pricier entertainment and gift giving to more affordable product like a book to read or a movie ticket, instead of that weekend way in Taupo.

If Doris can get through the tough times, her business is going to go from strength to strength and she has certainly chosen a opportune time to make her mark. Contrarian investors have almost always had better returns than those who go with the crowds, as their start up costs are always cheaper -in Mousdale's case with on going business expenses negotiated at a time when relative bargains can be had.

Good luck to her.

Related Links

Doris Reviews Books
- Leightonsmith.co.nz

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Bargain Hunters, Contrarians, Cycles and Waves (Secrets of the Great Investors) by Janet Lowe; Ken Fisher
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c Share Investor 2009

Friday, June 12, 2009

Burger Fuel Worldwide: Closer look at Company Accounts



















Further to yesterday's analysis of the Burger Fuel profit to 31/06/09, which I thought was misleading for shareholders, because of largely meaningless comparisons made between 2009 and 2008 profit. If you want to get a better picture of how things are really going have a look at the brief company accounts. ( you need to be a Share Investor Forum member to see them - join here)

Look especially at revenue for the company and where it comes from and look closely at year to year comparisons.

On first look the NZX release makes Burger Fuel Worldwide [BFW.NZ] position look quite good (and the lower loss is clearly a positive) but it is a different story once you look closer and in more detail.

Nice management spin.




Burger Fuel Worldwide @ Share Investor 


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Burger Fuel Worldwide: Closer look at Company Accounts 
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Pumpkin Patch VS Burger Fuel 
Burger Fuel results and commentary 



Discuss this Topic @ Share Investor Forum




c Share Investor 2009





Thursday, June 11, 2009

Analysis - Burger Fuel Worldwide: FY profit to 31/03/09

Burger Fuel Worldwide [BFW.NZ] had their profit for the year to 31 March 2009 out today and I expected a poor performance but on the surface it looks like things are getting better. It is difficult to compare this years result to last years as operations for 2008 are for less than 12 months of operations.

Lets have a look at the results in a bit more detail.



Key Points

1. Revenue for the franchisor up 70% to just over NZ$ 8 million.

2. More than half of franchisor income derived from food & beverage sales of company owned stores.

3. Losses pegged back 67% to just over 700K.

4. Revenue for franchisee & company owned stores up by over 15% to nearly $26 million. (Food and Beverage sales)

5. 3 more stores added to take total to 28.

6. International agreements for 3 territories signed.

7. losses slowing in the last half year.

8. No "material" borrowings.

9. Cash on hand substantially lower from $3.5 million last year to just over $1.5 million.


There is good indication of improved sales and slowing losses at both the franchisor and at store level but it isn't clear as to how much of the slowing losses are due to the logical response of management to cut back on costs due to the global recession. These costs were higher in the last period and would have contributed to the higher losses.

Much of the excitement around the Burger Fuel IPO 2 years ago was in the growth for the company and spectacular growth was needed to achieve good profit for the franchisor. As this appears to have slowed in the last half, expectations would be that this growth and profit are going to be delayed somewhat until economic conditions make growth a good business proposition again. This is pointed out by an executive director of the company Josef Roberts, who has indicated that expansion has been slowed considerably in new territories in the Middle East and in Australia where consolidation and more branding will be done before any more expansion there.

High growth and profit is needed to justify the high capital value that is currently put on the company, in comparison to its profit and future prospects, and shareholders are unlikely to see any concrete sustained profit until economies of scale are reached and unfortunately that means more money being spent on building up the business.

A big worry is that more than half of company revenue is from food and beverage sales from company owned stores, the rest comes from royalties, licensing and franchise fees and advertising charges to franchisees, originally forecast to be the bulk of income for the company during pre-IPO publicity.

With just over $1.5 million of cash at hand, which is substantially lower than for the last comparable period , the company is going to have to either borrow money or go to shareholders when it wants to start expanding again.

Until then they are just marking time.


Please Note

It must be noted that 2009 figures are difficult to accurately compare to last years because the 2008 period was only for 9.5 months and management haven't indicated whether adjustments have been made to reflect that in their own figures -it looks likely not to be the case so the large increases in sales and lower losses must reflect the two different reporting periods. In addition there are many accuracies in comparisons made because of less than two years in business and one off IPO costs other costs and other revenue included previously, making current year results look better than they should at first glance.


Burger Fuel Worldwide @ Share Investor 


Burger Fuel doesnt rule out capital raising

Burger Fuel Worldwide: Closer look at Company Accounts
Burger Fuel: Running on Empty
Burger Fuel leaves investors hungry
Burger Fuel management cagey over company progress
Burger Fuel cooks up Dubai deal
NZX share trades with strings attached
Don't buy Burger Fuel, yet
Burger Fuel: Inside info?
Burger Fool IPO: Burger Fool?
Exclusive Interview with Burger Fuel's Josef Roberts
Burger Fuel's Daytime drama
Burger Fuel share price out of gas
Beefing up store numbers
Director explains share price drop
Burger Fuel slims down in value
Burger Fuel and Coke
Marketing Burger Fuel's future
Pumpkin Patch VS Burger Fuel
Burger Fuel results and commentary



Discuss this Topic @ Share Investor Forum




c Share Investor 2009

Banks not participating in Recession


Bill English wants customers to "take banks to task" a nice attention grabbing headline and politically expedient but as I have found, my bank just isn't listening.

I mused a few months back as to why banks were not participating in the current recession, coming to the party and giving New Zealanders a break, considering taxpayers are now guaranteeing their own banks.

Lets face it, gone are the days when your bank manager knew your name and cared about the service they gave you and it seems even when it counts the most, in dire economic circumstances not seen for 70 years, they simply bury their heads in your money.

My bank's approach to the recession and what effect it might be having on me is to sack its staff, to make we wait longer in a line of other disgruntled sheep, falsely ask me at the counter what will I be doing in the weekend, ask if I want to buy insurance and then continue to punish me 25 bucks a time if I forget to have sufficient funds in my account when an auto payment is due. Its kinda like Robin Hood with a smile, except the taxpayer is paying for the arrows.

Short of forcing banks to play their part, and we don't want that, it seems the only pressure that might work is pressure from every bank customer on their bank manager.

The likelihood of that happening from the average passive Kiwi consumer is less than Lynda Carter coming back and playing the lead role in the new Wonder Woman movie.

It is worth a try though.

*Cartoon from Emmerson


Banking @ Share Investor

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The Return of Bryce
Banking Madness!

Discuss this topic @ Share Investor Forum



c Share Investor 2009