Friday, November 21, 2008

Coke is it

People love it, it is ones of the worlds most enduring and loved brands. Warren Buffett loves it and has a massive shareholding in the American icon.

In this day and age of dwindling fortunes and sagging sales this brand is a stalwart and Lion Nathan [LNN.NZX], the Australasian brewer, wants a piece of the Australian company that makes the black sticky concoction in this part of the world, Coca-Cola Amatil [CCL.ASX]

Lion Nathan previously owned the loss-making Pepsi franchise in Australasia so clearly see a non-alcoholic soda drinks company as integral to its alcohol brands.

Buffett calls companies like Coca-Cola Amatil "economic moats". That is, a company that has a strong brand and a product that is unique, enduring, easy to understand and sells, even during hard times.

Lion Nathan execs must have been reading some of Warrens screeds of pronouncements on his investing principles because they have their target right. The only problem being they haven't offered CCL Amital stockholders enough for their sweet black goldmine.

Lion have offered only AU$ 7.7 billion for Coca-Cola Amatil . The cash and stock bid, made at a 25 per cent premium to cokes share price, has been roundly criticised by CCA management as "unattractive" and "complicated". The offer from Lion gives Coke shareholders stock in Lion Nathan which is majority controlled by Kirin, the Japanese brewer.

The parent company and approx 30% shareholder in CCA will not comment on the matter but its CFO said last month to analysts:

"if the purchaser had the financial and the management resources to really grow that market for the long term, and that when selling we would sell if at fair value."

The stock and cash offer, even at a 25% premium is still below "fair value" and its is unclear as to whether Lion's management would grow the Coke brand and its other products long-term but of course the answer to that would be why wouldn't they?

The CCL Amital parent company, The Coca-Cola Company [NYSE: KO], wouldn't necessarily go for a higher price for their 30% shareholding but a company that would provide a higher return for their providing the syrup for finished product, which they get whoever owns CCL Amital.

Coke is a strong brand with a massive market share in this part of the world and that and its other strong brands; Fanta, Sprite, Lift, Lift Plus, Powerade, L&P and Schweppes make Lions initial bid too low by far.

Hang on CCL stockholders, don't sell yet.



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Related Links

Buffett and Coke

CCA Shareholder centre

2007 AR

2007 SR

2008 NOM

Complete
2007 annual report
PDF format (802kb)

Complete
2007 Shareholder Review
PDF format (2.6mb)

Notice of Meeting
PDF format (235kb)


From Amazon


For God, Country, and Coca-Cola: The Definitive History of the Great American Soft Drink and the Company That Makes ItFor God, Country, and Coca-Cola: The Definitive History of the Great American Soft Drink and the Company That Makes It by Mark Pendergrast
Buy new: $15.61 / Used from: $5.73
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The Real Thing: Truth and Power at the Coca-Cola CompanyThe Real Thing: Truth and Power at the Coca-Cola Company by Constance L. Hays
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Petretti's Coca-Cola Collectibles Price GuidePetretti's Coca-Cola Collectibles Price Guide by Allan Petretti
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Coca-Cola: The Collector's Guide to New and Vintage Coca-Cola MemorabiliaCoca-Cola: The Collector's Guide to New and Vintage Coca-Cola Memorabilia by Randy Schaeffer
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Other Coca Cola books from Amazon


c Share Investor 2008


Thursday, November 20, 2008

Like tits on a bull

"...the nature of the issues are complicated and require multiple solutions." Cindy Kiro, 19 Nov 2008.


Cindy was talking-oh if only if she actually DID someting rather than talk-about the Nia Glassie child murder case and child abuse in general.

She goes on in the same article.

"...people need to realise that poverty also played a part..." Cindy Kiro, 19 Nov 2008 

Lets address Kiros first quote.

How complicated is it to remove welfare from those that produce kids for that welfare then maim and kill children, and how difficult is it to make those individuals and groups responsible for doing such despicable things to kids?

In a normal world where personal responsibility reigns it is easy. If you removed the easy welfare the problem would largely go away and if you dealt severely to those already on the wrong side of the tracks when  they offended, against property, other citizens and children you would soon send the right message and the abuse would be cut.

No welfare equals no breeding deadbeat morons who kill kids for fun Cindy.

With knuckle dragging lazy self centered PC morons like Cindy though personal responsibility goes out the window with appropriate punishment.

Her second quote makes no sense at all.

Poverty playing a part in child murder is laughable. Back in the 1930s New Zealand experienced horendous poverty and the Nia Glassies and Kahuis of this world simply didn't happen. Kiro lives in a fantasy world where the perpetrators of these awful crimes are clearly victims too.

New Zealand doesn't need the talkers like big Cindy, we need people who take action.

Under her position as Childrens Commissioner we have seen more murders of babies than at any other time.

Kiros support for the repeal of section 59 that has stopped parents from lovingly correcting their children's behaviour with a smack and risks more violence in the future as these children brought up under such a regime go uncorrected and run wild without the boundaries of appropriate correction.

This bloated, overpaid, limp wristed Labour Party appointed bureaucratic drone, who clearly only gets exercise above her neck needs to go. To say Cindy is as useless as tits on a bull is being nice to her.

May I suggest Celia Lashlie in her place?




Monday, November 17, 2008

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare set for healthy 2009 profit



In what will be one of the most positive and anticipated earnings announcements of the current New Zealand reporting season Fisher & Paykel Healthcare [FPH.NZ]is set to release their results for the 2009 half year to 30 Sept 2008, this coming 10.00 am (NZ Time) Thursday, 20 November 2008-Live Webcast

It is one listed New Zealand company which is set to increase profit and sales for the year because of strong demand for its products and a stronger US dollar.

I have been buying this stock as it dropped and recently bought 3000 at $2.35, taking my total holding to 5000, and I am kicking myself for not buying more.

It is one of only a handful of stocks to actually increase in price over the last few months as its quality has shone among the dross.

The main focus for me on Thursday wont be the currency advantage that they had over last few months of the quarter but the increase in sales, and there will be an increase.

New innovative products have been introduced since last reporting and it will be interesting to see how well they have done since.

In relation to the exchange rate, the company forecast a profit of $86 million for the year to March 31 2009 at its annual meeting on August 22. This is based on a US dollar exchange rate of 72c for the rest of the financial year.

This morning November 2008 the Kiwi buys US 55.76c

Every cent movement down of the New Zealand dollar/US cross means an approximate NZ$2.5 million profit to Fisher's bottom line.

Disclosure: I own FPH shares


Fisher & Paykel @ Share Investor

Big Fisher & Paykel share trades a curious tale
Why did you buy that stock? [Fisher & Paykel Healthcare]
Drinking and Trading
Share Investor's 2008 stock picks
Fisher & Paykel: A tale of two companies
FPH downgrade masks good performance


Related Links

FY2008 full year results to 31 March 2008



From Amazon


The Business of <span class=
Healthcare Innovation

The Business of Healthcare Innovation
Buy new: $36.00 / Used from: $44.96
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c Share Investor 2008



Emissions trading review the first step towards sanity

The "review" by National of Labour's Emissions Trading Scheme, more commonly known as the Emissions Tax Scam, rushed through under urgency at the end of a dying Government is great news for New Zealand business and of course individuals as a whole.


While the detail of the review is not clear, any relaxing of the cost to Kiwis that the scheme was set to foist onto every family-at least $6000 per household per year-cant be a bad thing.

Annoying morons like Rod Oram from The Sunday Star Times is icing on the cake and he was in hyper greenie/commie mode last Sunday over Nationals review.

The Environment and Conservation Organisations of NZ continue dribbling:

National and ACT by putting on hold climate change action and reviewing the emissions trading regime is making New Zealand an irrelevancy in international negotiations in the lead up to the crucial Demark meeting on Climate Change at the end of next year 2009. More

The contrary is actually the case. Changing or removing the ETS completely would make New Zealand the most relevant country in the world in relation to Global Warming. 

Leading the world back to sanity would mark us out again as the little country that could. We did it before in the 70s and 80s over Nuclear power-ironically a power source that would improve the effects of Global Warming if you believed carbon had any effect on climate-and we can do it again, beginning with the repeal of Labours ETS scheme.

There will be much opposition to change from the extreme sectors of the country but it is all politically, financially and control motivated.

To relax or remove nutty legislation like the ETS Scheme is going to help our economy get back on track and certainly the 180 degree turn on building thermal power stations alone will help cement certainty for business-already established and those wishing to expand or enter the New Zealand market.

The carbon trading aspect of the ETS legislation, if introduced, would have led to the eventual collapse of the economy when the scheme inevitably imploded on its pyramid scheme made of ticky tacky and fairy dust and that is the most important part of the news that this scheme will be reviewed.

We can now all breathe a little easier.