Fletcher Building down tools in short term

Like any other companies operating in the current market Fletcher Building Ltd [FBU.NZ] is going to find the next 18 months or so very hard.

It has already forecast a much lower profit guidance of $289 million to $354 million for FY 2009, such a wide ranging forecast because of extreme uncertainties in the market in which the company operates.

The domestic housing markets in which it operates in; New Zealand, Australia and the USA are experiencing major downturns and that construction downturn coupled with the associated slowdown in supplies of their building materials to said construction is having a big impact on revenue and of course profit.

In my opinion this is likely to get considerably worse before it gets better and shareholders probably wont be seeing anything positive coming out of these domestic housing markets until well into 2010-well later if governments in those countries make the economy worse.

Having said that there are bright spots for the company.

Fletchers has a long list of major infrastructure projects currently underway, especially in Auckland; with Mount Eden Prison upgrade, the Eden Park redevelopment, the Manukau Harbour Crossing(PDF)and the New Lynn Rail Trench among them and a backlog of other infrastructure work in the wings.

The newly elected National Government have also indicated an emphasis on State funded infrastructure projects to help New Zealand get out of its deep economic funk and hundreds of millions in contracts are bound to come Fletchers way in the next year or so.

Australian and American Governments have also indicated a preference to concentrate on crumbling infrastructure to kick their economies along as well.

All this bodes well for their commercial construction division and also the raw materials that they can supply as the inevitable upturn comes.

A question still remaining is how much negative impact the purchase of the Formica Corporation last year for nearly 1 billion Kiwi dollars will have on company bottom line.

Bought for a premium, the global maker of laminates was already in trouble before it was rescued by Fletcher Building and the company has had some trouble and unforeseen(although it should have been) expense so far in restructuring plants and manufacturing processes in order to make the initial decision to buy a relevant one.

The jury is still out.

Make no mistake, Fletcher Building is one company that will be especially hit hard over the global recession. What it has going in its favour though is good management and a backlog of work to fall back on when other sectors of its business get negatively impacted and once again a good decision by management to diversify the company geographically as well as sectorially have put the company in good stead.

As it was one of the first sectors of the economy-along with the retail sector- to show signs of this current economic slowdown, its eventual emergence from the gloom will be a good indicator that New Zealand is at the beginning of another economic upturn.

**Disclosure: I own FBU Shares


Related Share Investor reading

Why did you buy that stock? [Fletcher Building Ltd]
A solid foundation for the future
Fletcher Building raises profit through canny management
Fletchers got game

Related Links

Fletcher Building Investor Info
Fletcher Building Financials

Click here for full Media Release
FBU 2008 Annual Results



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Key's whirlwind continues

What has taken all previous MMP governments weeks to organise has taken John Key less than a week.

He has announced his new government this morning even before officially being sworn in as Prime Minister.

Prime Minister elect John Key has announced the formation of a National-led centre-right government.

Act won five seats on election night and along with United Future, which won one, pledged to support National, meaning National's haul of 59 seats assured it a majority in the incoming 122-member Parliament.But Mr Key's successs in signing up the Maori Party means National could command 70 votes on confidence and supply issues.

Mr Key's formal inking of the deals paves the way for him to announce his Cabinet tomorrow and for him and his ministers to be sworn in on Wednesday.

That will allow Mr Key to fly out on Thursday to the Apec summit in Peru at the weekend as New Zealand's new Prime Minister. More

• John Key forms the Government
• John Key on forming Govt

Not bad for a Prime Minister who was called a "politician with training wheels" by former Labour leader Helen Clark.

This caps Keys meteoric rise in Parliament from MP just six years ago to one of New Zealands youngest and most qualified individuals to take the position of Prime Minister.

c Political Animal 2008

Don McGlashan admits sexual preference for Crayfish

The lefties have been vacillating between denial and pure hatred for over a week now since New Zealand voted for a kinder, more worldly experienced and normal type of Government.

Denial that the Labour Party had turned into an irrelevant, stinking, corrupt banana shaped turd and hatred for those in the National Party that might take away some of their free toys.

A high profile collective whose politics you know just by the fact that he is a musician, former Mutton Bird and now owner of a mansion in Grey Lynn , Don McGlashan, has got his red panties in a bunch because National have won the election and the arty farty types are going to have to cut back on the caviar, champagne and truffles because the 100s of millions of dollars of largesse doled out by former Arts Minister Helen Clark is about to slow to a mere trickle.

In an angry letter to the network, McGlashan said he had never voted National and "would rather have sex with a very ugly crayfish than let them use my music".

McGlashan told the Herald on Sunday he was out during the broadcast, but later came home to find his daughter, Pearl, in shock.

"There was a death-in-the-family atmosphere when I got home.

"My daughter came running in from just having seen it and said `I've got some terrible news for you'.

TVNZ has an agreement with the Australasian Performing Rights Association (APRA) to play a range of New Zealand music at a set fee.

The association's executive director of New Zealand operations, Anthony Healey, said that he understood McGlashan's anger but TVNZ had done nothing wrong. More

The precious former singer and now grumpy old **nt, was upset that his song Anchor Me was used to underplay a clip in a post-election montage involving National's win.

Mc Glashan was paid for the privilege.

May I suggest a couple of other songs to play from former music bigs and well noted lefties from New Zealand to commemorate Nationals big win last Saturday.

Dave Dobbyn's Bliss, Tim Finn's Staring at the Embers and Neil Finn's Message to my Girl-you lost.

Pull your head in Don, you are getting paid for the use of your song and agreed through APRA that it could be used.

Perhaps now you and your ilk can earn a living without taxpayer handouts, although I am guessing that thousands of National voters might now be re-considering buying one of your long ago recorded albums from the bargain bin at the Warehouse for a Christmas pressie.

Music to my ears.

c Political Animal 2008

Pick the biggest losers when buying stocks

On the subject of buying listed shares on the NZX stockmarket I am making a list of the shares I am going to buy.

It looks like the stockmarket is going to go South before it goes North again because there is more bad news to come in relation to the New Zealand economy-we simply haven't been fully hit by economic events overseas yet.

So stocks are going to get lower.

I am lousing at timing the market and have bought earlier on this year and lost some share price value and ironically making a 40% gain on a purchase of Fisher & Paykel Healthcare [FPH.NZ] which is doing very well because of increasing sales and a lower kiwi dollar.

I am looking at the following:

Pumpkin Patch [PPL.NZ]
Hallenstein Glassons [HLG.NZ]
Telecom NZ [TEL.NZ]
Mainfreight [MFT.NZ]
Fletcher Building [FBU.NZ]
Michael Hill International [MHI.NZ]
Ryman Healthcare [RYM.NZ]


I own every one of the above except Telecom.

All of the above have dropped in share price by more than 50% off their respective highs, with the exception of Pumpkin Patch and Telecom which have dropped by more than 80%, and Mainfreight by about 40%.

I am very tempted to buy now and at these prices the stocks represent good value for money in a long term portfolio but as I have already pointed out I think these stocks have more room to move-down.

The retailers will still be under considerable pressure, even though they are already among the biggest losers in the downturn this year, but the ones I have listed are good quality and will eventually bounce back to life, sales and share price wise.

I will wait until next year and see how bad the February reporting season is before plunging back in.

Meanwhile I am hoarding cash over summer to make my move in 2009.


Related Share Investor Reading

Why did you buy that stock? [Fisher & Paykel Healthcare]
Share Investor's 2008 stock picks
Drinking and Trading


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