The Global Economy looks bad now? But wait there's more

JPMorgan scoops up troubled Bear 4:56am: The deal values Bear Stearns at just $2 a share. Regulators hope purchase will stave off wider chaos in financial markets. more

The Bear Stearns fire sale reveals the iceberg underneath the tip of current disclosed sub-prime losses.

Everyone is talking about it and I have written about it frequently for more than a year. The contagion from the reckless lending of the last 10 years still has time to play out its course.

Emergency rate cuts on Sunday(US time) in the United States and talk of another one on Monday 17, of perhaps 100 basis points, will do little to restore the faith in credit markets, housing, business, the stockmarket and every other sort of financial instrument that is traded, with the possible exceptions of some commodities and minerals.

In New Zealand a story out today shows the high exposure our banks have to our ever decreasing housing market and along with higher government spending promised by the Labour government and a whole host of other price increases, interest rates are clearly going to skyrocket.

Things are looking grim here but in the United States, where it all began, they are suffering worse than anyone else. High house foreclosures, defaults on loans and increasing unemployment are front page stories. One doesn't have to be Warren Buffett to figure out that America is already in recession. The official confirmation of two consecutive quarters of GDP stagnation will only be a matter of course when it is announced.

The real question is, how bad is it going to get in the US and how much is it going to affect us in New Zealand and other parts of the world?

I'm not an expert in global economics but do have a keen economic grounding and I think things in the US are going to get alot worse. We still haven't seen the full extent of losses that banks and other financial institutions have been hit with, and those losses will have to be accounted for somewhere in the US economy.

The selling of Bear Sterns to JP Morgan Chase for $2 a share is a good indicator of more financial institutions sitting on bigger than disclosed losses. The balance sheet of BS, who incidentally survived the Great Depression, must be grim indeed.

The impact on other countries is going to be felt more than it is now because these things take time to filter down. Of course immediate impacts on currency values, world sharemarkets etc are felt quickly but longer term impacts, like even higher interest rates oil prices and goods and services.

Some economists talk of a "disconnect" of Asian economies from the still dominant US beast but that really isn't probable to me because countries like China, India and Japan still rely on a strong United States to survive. Economic self sufficiency in Asia is still a decade or so away.

A key sign of a loss of faith in the global economy will be seen when the US stockmarket opens in a few hours time.

If another interest rate cut is announced by the Fed and it is a big one, one should expect a rise in the DOW. Having said that, the fact that such a large cut is being proposed will probably mean the market will rightly look at this scenario as a good reason to dump their shares.

The uncertainty will have investors hitting the sell button.

The feeling I have in this part of the world is that investors have already started to panic. The New Zealand market was down by 2% and Australia followed with a 2.5% drop. Asian markets, as usual in times of turmoil, were hit harder. Over a broad range of markets in Asia they were down around 4% on average.

Whatever happens to the global economy in the coming days, weeks, and months, you can be sure it will be volatile, fraught with emotional writing from people like me and bad for the back pocket.

It will however, be very interesting.


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Clark's push for Neo Muldoonism deja vu all over again

News out last week that a so-called "anti-obesity" bill put forward by the dangerous, corrupt, carbon footprint waving, anti-free speech, private property/business hating, and tofu munching socialists, the New Zealand Labour party has this correspondent jumping for joy, in a cynical sarcastic, toxic sort of way.

A Labour supporter at last Sunday's Electoral Finance Act protest will have too keep his mouth shut if he is a "junk food"
eater. Labour wants to tax it.

The bill seems to be at the peak of Labour's desires to control the New Zealand populous, as it will restrict, at a whim, by the PC Director of Health or Cabinet, to prescribe what we should be eating.

That means supermarkets could be asked to put the Moro bars under lock and key, the chips behind plate glass and the ice cream in a room where only thin people can buy it with a license and photo ID.

I have joked about this for years, but here is the unfunny part, it looks set to actually happen.

No "junk" food for those of us, like me, who love it.

I mean, give me a motherfucking break, who do these vermin think they are?

Like Micheal Cullen's attack on private owners of Auckland International Airport last week, why the hell don't you just buy the Airport or open state run supermarkets yourself oh great leader?

While you are at it why don't you follow Cullen's lead, as Mugabe followed his lead last week, and nationise all private companies.

We could get around high prices buy opening state run gas stations, real estate agencies, banks, gyms, brothels, travel agencies and corner dairies. They could all be as successful as our hospitals, education system, police force and parliament.

Hang on a second perhaps that is not such a good idea.

Imagine the shortages, red tape, long queues and jobs for the boys.

Get the point people!

The state, let alone the stooges at the head of the Labour party couldn't run a bath, let alone the additional government departments the great leader obviously wants us to have.

Why not have everyone working for the government, at least then we can go back to a simpler gentler time, when everyone was happy and we all held hands and sung kombaya around a spluttering State funded fire.

Helen Clark's wish to follow a Neo Muldonism, and reconstruct New Zealand the way it was in Robert Muldoon's time is a scary thought, but that is where we are heading.

Muldoon knew in 1983-84 that he was going to find the 1984 election a tough one and he plundered every resource at his disposal to enable him to control almost every aspect of New Zealand life.

He nationalised everything he could, controlled the economy with an iron fist and spent so much money in his tenure at the top and buying that election that NZ INC was broke when the new Labour government of the day came into office and looked at the books.

One Roger Douglas was the architect in that Labour governments resurrection of the country and economy as he embarked on a radical plan that transformed our country and economy almost overnight.

It seems to be deja vu all over again in 2008. Helen Clark has the platinum taxpayer credit card in her hand and she is going to go well over the limit to buy your vote with your money.

In a time warp back to, 1984 Sir Roger Douglas is going to take a position in the Act Party, his first foray into politics in over 20 years and this time he is on the opposite side to her former party mates Clark and Cullen et al.

It seems to be a case of a perfect storm of politics crashing against a crumbling economy and an out of control bunch of power drunk socialists who will say, do and spend anything to retain their naked lust for power.

The addition this year of a recession and a possible deep recession at that makes the likelihood of a repeat of the class of 1984 almost a certainty.

Bugger.


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The Warehouse set for a turbulent 2008

The Warehouse Group Ltd
(WHS.NZ: Quote, Profile, Research)

NZX 2008 Interim Result - NZX
HY Profit up 7% - Reuters
Warehouse profit rises 7% on warranties - Bloomberg

More Consumer Goods and Retail

eBay's Meg Whitman to co-chair McCain's campaign

China's Hisense group sees sales doubling by 2010

Japan car makers changing N. America plans - Nikkei

TABLE-China's Jiangling Motors 2007 net up 21 pct

More Consumer Goods and Retail News...

The Court of Appeal will hear on April 29, the Commerce Commission case in seeking to overturn a High Court ruling allowing Woolworths Australia [WOW.ASX] and Foodstuffs supermarket companies to bid for The Warehouse Group [WHS.NZ]

In the wake of flat profits reported on Friday14 (NZ Time) the outcome of this case will come under closer scrutiny by investors in a New Zealand sharemarket racked with uncertainties.

Unfavourable global market conditions, a dismal forward look at the New Zealand economy, a drop in profit forecast by The Warehouse itself, and local and foreign investors disgruntled over recent Government intervention in Auckland International Airport [AIA.NZ] and their assault on private property rights, makes the case for a quick decision by the court even more compelling.

Investors have voted overwhelmingly to sell their shares in Auckland International Airport on Thursday last week and the same will be the case when and if the 3 parties to The Warehouse saga are given the go ahead to make a deal.

As mentioned before in this column I have every belief that the deal will happen, even if it has to go the way of the Supreme Court sometime at the end of 2008.

The only drawback to a Supreme Court ruling though is that the bench is stacked with politically appointed Labour Party Judges, so a verdict there could be in question.

The motivation for the buyers in this process to acquire, I think, will be higher than before the current credit squeeze. Clearly if credit gets horrendously expensive, the weaker player in terms of finance capabilities, Foodstuffs, may find it difficult to offer a competitive price for The Warehouse and therefore have to drop out.

Woolworths still have the upper hand in terms of available financing so the fortune favours the Aussies and the credit mess we are facing may in actual fact go in their favour . They have large cash reserves and future cash revenue to boot.

We await with keenness for a decision from the High Court, but uncertainty over the decision, given current political overtones and issues over perceived "kiwi assets falling to filthy foreign control", with a decision to also be made by the overseas investment office, may leave investors in The Warehouse disappointed, in an election year filled with emotional baggage left over from the distant 1980s and a Socialist government bent on Neo Muldonism.


Disclosure: I own WHS shares


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STUFF.co.nz: Auckland Airport all go for sale

LATEST: Shareholders have voted in favour of the $1.8 billion partial takeover of Auckland International Airport by a Canadian state pension fund.

By the close of the offer at 5pm yesterday, shareholders holding 79.7 percent of the company had voted on the bid, with 57.7 percent of those voting approving the offer, the airport said today.

A majority of shareholders voting needed to back the offer for it to go ahead.

Share acceptances had reached 62.4 per cent by 5pm yesterday when the bid closed. On Wednesday they had been at 37.8 per cent.

Six per cent shareholder Guardians of the New Zealand Superannuation Fund was among those accepting.

As shareholders swung in behind the bid, the focus has switched to whether the Government will approve the deal, after the Canadian Pension Plan Investment Board's concession over its $3.60a-share offer for a 40 per cent stake in the airport company.

It is a swift turnaround for a bid that looked dead in the water only a week ago after the Government closed a tax loophole and tightened foreign investment rules.

A turning point came on Tuesday when 3.3 per cent shareholder and utilities investor Infratil, seen as a barometer of sentiment, said it would sell.

Shares in the airport, a top-10 company that controls 70 per cent of New Zealand's international air traffic, jumped 35 cents yesterday to end at $2.54.

In addition to gaining 40 per cent of shares, the Canadian fund needed to gain approval from a majority of voting shareholders.

The harshest blow to the bid came on March 4, when Auckland Airport shares plunged 20 per cent after the Government said it would tighten rules to prevent overseas investors gaining control of so-called sensitive assets.

That followed a February 26 move preventing companies from offering tax-deductible payments.

This had formed a key part of a capital restructuring proposal by the pension fund if its partial bid succeeds.

However, this week the Canadian pension fund said it would voluntarily restrict its voting rights to 24.9 per cent in a bid to calm Government worries about foreign ownership of key assets.

The Government's move was seen by many as politically motivated.

One analyst said: "The Government doesn't give a damn about the economic ramifications, this is all about getting votes."

The Overseas Investment Office said it would refer the bid to Land Information Minister David Parker and Associate Finance Minister Clayton Cosgrove.

- with REUTERS

Share Investor AIA merger coverage to date

Auckland Airport Update
Latest AIA developments
Cullen's move on Auckland Airport has far reaching effects
Cullen's move on AIA tax plan Anti-Business
AIA profit stays grounded
Softening opposition to CPPIB bid for AIA
Directors of AIA bribe brokers not to sell
What is Auckland Airport worth to you?
Second bite at AIA by CPPIB might just fly
AIA new directors must focus on shareholders
Auckland Airport merger deal nosedives
The Canadians have landed
AIA incentive scheme must fly out the window
Government market manipulation over AIA/DAE deal
DAE move on AIA: Will it fly?

Disclosure: I own AIA shares

c Share Investor 2008