Sunday Driving: Share Investor Portfolio 1 year on

Lets have a quick look at the performance of my portfolio over the last year.

The two portfolios listed below are dated 8.12.07 and 8.12.06, in descending order.

In the year of tracking I have received approx NZ$12,500.00 in net dividends which have been reinvested and $8500 odd in tax credits.

There is currently approximately $360 in cash.

I have added new stocks Postie Plus, Micheal Hill, and Kiwi Income Property Trust and added to my holdings in Pumpkin Patch and Mainfreight.

This has cost approximately $50000.00.

So remove these additional funds from the mix and we have a surplus for the year of $2611.00.

Not a good return at all but it is a long term portfolio and it will be interesting to see the value in a year from now. An example of how fickle things are, Sky City was trading more than 50c higher than last Friday a few months ago and the portfolio was standing at $20000.00 more.

The portfolio high for the year was just over $310,000.00 without the addition of the extra capital. So it is way below that figure.

The Warehouse, Sky City and Auckland Airport are all undergoing merger/takeover pressure.

Everything has been savaged and perhaps the best performing share on the NZX without takeover pressure would be Fletcher Building.


Still smiling even though my
returns have been crappy this year.


Portfolios in tables: current one first

S.I Portfolio @ 8.12.07	code	purchase price	purchase value	current price	current value	performance
	AIA	$2.06	$2060	$2.890	$2890	40.291%
Cash	ASBPB	$.7973	$7973	$0.975	$9750	22.288%
NZ$360	FBU	$9.106	$9106	$11.690	$11690	28.377%
	FPH	$3.63	$7260	$3.290	$6580	-9.366%
	FRE	$3.251	$26658.2	$3.740	$30668	15.042%
Tax Credits	GFF	$2.10	$4200	$2.200	$4400	4.762%
NZ$8500	KIP	$1.51	$1510	$1.350	$1350	-10.596%
	MFT	$7.385	$23078.125	$7.210	$22531.25	-2.37%
	MHI	$1.05	$1050	$1.030	$1030	-1.905%
	PPG	$.7925	$820.2375	$0.700	$724.5	-11.672%
	PPL	$3.5725	$7145	$2.650	$5300	-25.822%
	RYM	$1.936	$9680	$2.120	$10600	9.504%
	SKC	$2.38	$83300	$4.910	$171850	106.303%
	STU	$4.381	$1752.4	$3.670	$1468	-16.229%
	WHS	$5.413	$43304	$6.640	$53120	22.668%
Totals:			$228896.9625		$333951.75

S I Portfolio @ 8.12.06	code	purchase price	purchase value	current price	current value	performance
	AIA	$2.18	$2180	$2.150	$2150	-1.376%
	ASBPB	$.86	$8600	$1.030	$10300	19.767%
	FBU	$9.78	$9780	$10.300	$10300	5.317%
	FRE	$3.52	$28864	$4.200	$34440	19.318%
	GFF	$2.265	$4530	$2.400	$4800	5.96%
	MFT	$8.0167	$24050.1	$8.100	$24300	1.039%
	PPL	$4.1666	$4166.6	$4.200	$4200	0.802%
	RYM	$9.79	$9790	$9.750	$9750	-0.409%
	SKC	$2.69	$94150	$5.120	$179200	90.335%
	STU	$4.81	$1924	$4.750	$1900	-1.247%
Totals:			$188034.7		$281340

$2170.30 Cash @ Bank

C Share Investor 2006, 2007

Share Investor Friday Free for all: Edition 13

Bollard sits on his hands



Allan Bollard in a more animated frame of mind.


Allan Bollard rattled his sabre again this week.

Keeping the cash rate at 8.25% while telling us inflation was a risk down the road.

Well helloooo! could one of the reasons to the risk of inflation be your 4 rate hikes this year and multiple ones over the last few years?

The short answer is yes but the less interesting answer is that Bollard is clearly out of his depth.

Barely able to see over the rims of his accountant style glasses, he rarely has the vision to see further than what happens from day to day..

Instead of dropping the cash rate, as he should have, he risks putting the New Zealand economy at the sort of risk the Labour Government has put it under for the last 8 stifling years.

Labour did it with world record breaking high taxes, removing cash and investment from the economy and Bollard did it with the worlds highest interest rates outside the worlds other banana republics, ditto removing cash from street level and strangling productive investment, savings and business.

World economies are cutting rates to stimulate economies and Bollard sits on his hands. It looks like he will only move once the economic cycle we are in is in the middle of a meltdown.


The Warehouse wont be sold for a bargain




Warehouse extra store, one of only three

It looks like it is all on for young and old in the fight for The Warehouse.

After the recent High Court decision granted New Zealand's Foodstuffs and Australia's Woolworths the right to bid for the general merchandise retailer the two prospective buyers have wasted no time in talking to Warehouse management.

Competition between the two to bid for the company is going to be intense and this writer has a $NZ 50000.00 bet that the bidding is going to be explosive.

There is talk of Foodstuffs teaming up with a private equity player to make a bid but the star likely to shine through is Woolworths. It has a very strong balance sheet, excellent cash flows and a history of paying good money for assets it really wants.

The share price has already done the impression of a Nasa rocket by taking off from below 5 bucks last week to close at NZ$6.65 today.


The Canadians Fly in, again.

In the long running saga that is the Auckland International Airport merger/takeover, yesterday news that the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board has changed the terms of its proposed amalgamation with the airport, stimulating more interest in the company's shares. CPPIB would reduce the convertible note component and increase the value of the ordinary share.



Part of the main Auckland international airport at Mangere

It is offering a convertible note, valued at $2.75, an ordinary share valued at 70.5c and 20c cash.

The proposal will be put to airport shareholders only if CPPIB's $3.66 a share all-cash partial takeover bid for 40 per cent of the airport is successful.

The proposed amalgamation, which requires the support of 75 per cent of airport shareholders, is the second part of the CPPIB's two-pronged scenario to negotiate a restructure of the airport's balance sheet to realize tax benefits.

That offer opens on December 14 and closes mid-March.

The possibility that the board will recommend the bid to shareholders could be a little dodgy considering the pedigree of some of its board members.

Lloyd Morrison or John Brabazon have voiced their opposition to such deals over the last 6 months or more of this long opus and the two council shareholders look reluctant to sell.

Who the hell knows really. The sale process of the airport has only been trumped in its complexity and opaqueness by the sorry tale of Sky City Entertainment and its managements' dilly dallying over bids for the casino company.


Hobson's choice




According to NZ Government stats the Kiwisaver super scheme has 300,000 participants that have "chosen" to "enroll" in it.

What is left out of any analysis is that the scheme is an opt out one rather than opt in so the bulk of those 300,000 haven't done anything. They are merely too lazy to opt out.

Micheal Cullen, our out of his depth Minister of Finance, of course trumpets this as a great success but as usual leaves out the details when they don't stand the scrutiny of logical argument and clear thought processes.

Of course this is the chap who has spent the last 8 years telling New Zealanders that tax cuts don't stimulate economies but is going to hand our money back to us in election year 2008.

Good luck balancing your check book Mr Cullen.

I'm no big fan of this harebrained state controlled and controlling scheme because it is expensive and tax inefficient but it will benefit shareholders in New Zealand listed companies.


Burgers going for half price




In Burger Fuel news, you guys out there love Burger Fuel:

According to Google information released this week, Burger Fuel was the subject of the most internet searches of any New Zealand listed company.

This is no surprise to me because I have known this little tidbit since the company listed back in July. Its the biggest search term on my blog as well, followed by the worlds credit problems and Pumpkin Patch Ltd.

Incidentally the share price still languishes at 60c and is thinly traded, with a massive $150 going through today.

Its still on my watchlist though.


NZX Market Wrap & commentary

6:27PM Friday December 07, 2007
By Melanie Carroll, NZ Herald

New Zealand shares made a late rebound today to recover the ground lost after last week's downgrade by international share index compilers MSCI.

The benchmark NZSX-50 index closed up 49.4 points, or 1.2 per cent, at 4092.9, its highest in over a week. Turnover totalled $109 million, and rises outnumbered falls by 58 to 38.

Lines company Vector was the standout stock, recovering to a two-month high of 251, up 6c or 2.5 per cent, from 218 last week.

"The stock always looked cheap anyway but particularly post-the MSCI selldown the market is starting to focus on fundamentals behind the stock, and the fact that there was effectively a profit upgrade in recent times," Macquarie Equities NZ investment director Arthur Lim said.

Other blue chips to rebound were Telecom, up 13c to 444, Auckland Airport, up 7c to 289, Fletcher Building, up 29c to 1169, Fisher & Paykel Healthcare, up 11c at 329, and F&P Appliances, rising 6c to 340.

Sky City was up 6c at 491, Sky TV rose 3c to 566, and Contact Energy slid 17c to 847.
The compilers of the MSCI indexes, which guide international trading and portfolio composition, downgraded New Zealand and are removing five of the top-10 stocks due to lack of liquidity and market capitalisation.

Remaining in the index are Telecom, Fletcher Building, Contact Energy, Auckland Airport and Sky City.

The Warehouse was up 10c at 664, having jumped over 12 per cent since the High Court overturned a Commerce Commission ruling blocking supermarket chains Foodstuffs and Woolworths from bidding for the retailer.

"If you add back the special dividend of 35c, it means that the price is now the equivalent of $7. Clearly the market is saying it is unlikely that the Commerce Commission is going to appeal, and it follows news in Australia that discussions have started taking place between the different parties," Mr Lim said.

Air New Zealand was up 3c at 182, Nuplex gained 10c to 700, Infratil was up 7c at 297, Mainfreight rose 11c to 721, and Ryman Healthcare was up 2c at 212.

Freightways fell 6c to 374, Pumpkin Patch was down 5c at 265, NZX fell 5c to 925, and ING Medical Properties was down 2c at 122.

Among dual-listed stocks, ANZ jumped 50c to 3225, Westpac was up 35c to 3265, AMP rose 16c to 1192, and Lion Nathan rose 17c to 1090.

NZPA


Disclosure: I own Auckland Airport, The Warehouse shares

C Share Investor 2007

Cartoon and comment; Emmerson: Winston Churchill Clark

C Emmerson, NZ Herald 2007


Emmerson gets to the nub or middle finger of the Electoral Finance Bill.

Labour and its cronies are blaming The NZ Herald for whipping up undue fear among the unwashed public but it is doing a stellar job over the EFB bill. A stand, the likes of which has never been seen since the heyday of Muldoon in the 1970s-80s.

On Wednesday in parliament Labour lapdog Winston Peters called the Herald's "attack" on the EFB a conspiracy of big foreign business trying to gain a foothold of power in New Zealand to enable them to make more money.

Paranoia clearly rules in Winston's office.

We can only hope he gets his foot caught in his mouth again on his latest holiday abroad.

Link to the Herald's EFB website: Electoral Finance Bill in detail


C Political Animal 2007

Electoral Finance Bill gets stalled in Parliament

They don't call it a political grind for nothing.

C Emmerson, NZ Herald 2007

The passing of the Electoral Finance Bill by Labour into law this week isn't going to happen.

The National opposition party are hammering every new clause to the hastily rushed and badly drafted bill and it is chewing up valuable parliamentary time.

There is a very distant possibility that National could stall the bill long enough for Labour to have to come back next February after the summer break.

There is of course the possibility that the house sit under urgency to pass the bill, as they have done with many other contentious constitutional and social changing legislation.

Whatever the time line, the bill is going to pass and the net affect will be that New Zealand citizens will have their democratic right to express their political views, without fear, in election year, removed.

C Political Animal 2007

Sky City Management: blind, deaf and numb

The absolute garbage that masquerades as management at Sky City Entertainment has got to come to a logical conclusion some time soon.



The lobby of the 5 star Sky City Grand Hotel
The company let the market know that the only remaining suitor, which was rumoured as US private equity funds TPG and Apollo Management, was still attempting to arrange financing for a takeover bid.

Sky City management have been effusive, misleading and amateurish in their attempts to keep the market informed accurately and sheppard a deal with a prospective buyer.

If market experience from this end is as deficient as we know it, one can only imagine how the prospective buyer was treated.

Were Sky City management clear, precise and upfront with the two rumoured funds?

I seriously doubt it.

Now I'm not displeased that a deal looks like it is going to fall through but can you imagine this motley crew turning around the company and having the potential to put things back on track?

Not bloody likely mate.

Brook Asset Management, a large Sky City shareholder, has been angling for a board clean out for a long time and I would have to concur with that, for I cant see a way forward with sub standard people at the helm.

TPG and Apollo Management have apparently fallen short in the moola stakes because of the global "credit crunch" but I'm finding that a little hard to stomach considering the timing of the initial bid interest in September and at that time easy credit had already become a thing of the past.

What shareholders need is a clear assessment of where things are with any bid and it is certainly not up to Sky City management to wait around for a possible buyer to raise funds.

There needs to be an understanding from this last possible bidder that they are serious, give them a definite deadline-Sky City management have moved their deadline several times-and if they are not interested tell them to bugger off so we can all move on.

Without the current board of course.

You can bet the current state of indecision will also be permeating the business side of the company as well, not forgetting the considerable amount of money it will be costing shareholders in putting any bid together.

Roll the dice.

Disclosure: I own Sky City shares


C Share Investor 2007

Electoral Finance Bill: The purpose is clear

The crucial and main thrust of the Electoral Finance Bill is as follows and is the clearest part of an otherwise confused, contradictory and appallingly written bill. From part one of the preliminary provisions and purpose of the bill:


5. Meaning of election advertisement
(1) In this Act, election advertisement –

(a) means any form of words or graphics, or both, that can be
reasonably be regarded as doing 1 or more of the following.

(i) encouraging or persuading voters to vote, or not to vote,
for 1 or more specified parties or for 1 or more candidates
or for any combination of such parties and candidates:

(ii) encouraging and persuading voters to vote, or not to vote,
for a type of party or a type of candidate that is described
or indicated by reference to views, positions, or policies
that are or are not held, taken or pursued (whether or not
the name of a party or the name of a candidate is stated):

(iii) taking a position on a proposition with which 1 or more
parties or 1 or more candidates is associated; and

(b) includes-
(i) a candidate advertisement; and
(ii) a party advertisement.

Lets have a closer look:

(a) means any form of words or graphics, or both, that can be
reasonably be regarded as doing 1 or more of the following.

So the purpose of the bill is clear, any words or graphics constitute an election advert.

(i) encouraging or persuading voters to vote, or not to vote,
for 1 or more specified parties or for 1 or more candidates
or for any combination of such parties and candidates:

This blog will be captured as a result of this and so will political writers, broadcasters and individuals who support or have a contrary view to a particular party. Even though in other parts of the bill this purpose is contradicted by saying it allows blogs like this one and the other media I mentioned.

(i) encouraging or persuading voters to vote, or not to vote,
for 1 or more specified parties or for 1 or more candidates
or for any combination of such parties and candidates:

(ii) encouraging and persuading voters to vote, or not to vote,
for a type of party or a type of candidate that is described
or indicated by reference to views, positions, or policies
that are or are not held, taken or pursued (whether or not
the name of a party or the name of a candidate is stated):

Part one and two of the purpose are similar so I will look at them as one. Largely self explanatory and very clear about their purpose. That individuals are unable to express views that may influence others by encouraging them to vote for or against a candidate or party.

"Advertising" those views, as expressed in the purpose and definition of an electoral advertisement, is merely giving ones own opinion to another individual or group to the positive or negative and may be seen as an "advertisement" as a result, according to this portion or the purpose of the bill.

This shuts down all opposition to the incumbent government in an election year and is clearly designed to favour Labour at the expense of democracy and our rights to speak our minds.

The debate continues in parliament this week and the bill looks set to pass into law soon.


C Political Animal 2007

Herald gets angry at Electoral Finance Bill(again)

The New Zealand Herald has ripped into the Labour Governments' fascist anti democratic Electoral Finance Bill this morning. Once again granny has put their editorial on the front page and cut deeply into the morass of subterfuge and cover ups over the direction of this piece of trash bill.

Parliament debate the bill today and Labour and its hangers on plan to pass it into law before the end of sitting this year, for it to take effect on January 1 2008. It is possible that the bill could be passed this week.

This will be the last time New Zealanders' will be able to freely debate political issues in an election year and all opposition against the incumbent government will be censured to such a degree people will be too scared to speak out should they be tapped on the shoulder and charged for inciting other people to vote or not to vote for a particular party.

Along with a whole host of other anti democratic laws passed by this power crazed government over the last 9 years, the ditching of the Privy Council and the hiring of politically appointed judges to the "Supreme Court" high among them, the EFB bill passed into law, will mean the end to one of the worlds longest running democracies and put us into the realms of banana republics like Zimbabwe, Russia, Malaysia, Indonesia and Pakistan, where those governments keep criticism by its citizens in line by similar means.

The Herald is doing a fine job exposing this fascism and seems to be man alone in mainstream media circles. Other media outlets ignoring the fact that they will be unable to publish such criticism in election year:

Editorial: Speak now, or next year hold your peace

5:00AM Tuesday December 04, 2007

This morning's Herald front page

Democracy under attack

• Clark to tough it out on election cash bill
• Cartoon: Winston Churchill Clark

The Herald has today, for the second time in a month, run a front page editorial calling for the Electoral Finance Bill to be scrapped, saying it is an attack on democracy

There will be no winners if the Electoral Finance Bill is passed into law this week. The Labour Party will have revised the electoral rules to suit itself, but that will be a pyrrhic victory if it loses the next election, as polls suggest it will. The National Party has promised to repeal the bill as soon as it gets the chance.

Thus our electoral law is reduced to a game of political ping-pong, a game that would not have started had the Government done the right thing from the beginning.

Even its friend the Green Party has been urging it to refer its concerns about election finance to an independent body that could recommend changes to the law if necessary from an impartial position.

But the Government has ploughed ahead, making minimal changes to the bill's clamp on political expression from January 1 until after election day next year, and adding an extraordinary new dimension, making the Electoral Commission the vehicle for disbursements of parties' secret donations. That drastic sudden proposal alone should tell the Government this is not the way to make constitutional change.

Unless the Greens and United Future act on their reservations and withhold support for the bill this week it will pass. And they will be as guilty as Labour and New Zealand First for the offence to free speech.

From next month until a probable November election, any person or group wanting to promote an issue of concern would face a legal and bureaucratic minefield. For the right to spend their money they would need to register as a "third party", file declarations about donors and expenses and keep within a spending limit of $120,000, just 5 per cent of the amount MPs' parties may spend.

The regulations would apply to any material that might encourage people to vote or not vote for "a type of party or a type of candidate" described by reference to views, positions or policies even if the party or candidate is not named.

As revised, the bill seems to catch everything from a billboard to a bull-horn, but the Justice Minister says "common sense" will apply. Whose?

The self-serving electoral fix is being done now in the hope it might be forgotten at an election 11 months hence. Those 11 months will be quieter than they would have been without the electoral finance gag. Labour's union allies will be as constrained as any moneyed group agreeing with National. Public debate will be constrained and our politics poorer.

Money does not win elections unless the message it is financing strikes a popular chord. Labour is legislating in fear of messages it might not like. At the same time, it has given parties in Parliament the right to use public funds for purposes the Auditor-General ruled improper at the last election.

The country should not stand for this. It is not unduly susceptible to paid campaigns. The bill is an insult to our intelligence as well as our rights. Even now, at the 11th hour, it can be stopped and sent to an impartial panel. Let's hope the common sense outside Parliament can prevail.

C Political Animal & NZ Herald 2007

Mallard in the docks

Trevor Mallard in the Wellington District Court earlier today, unusually placid.

I was fascinated by the innocent plea from Trevor"The Bash" Mallard today in the Wellington District Court over the charge put before him over his assault of Tau Henare, in the Parliamentary precinct a few weeks back.

Mallard admitted his guilt in assaulting Henare at the time and faced no disciplinary action from the Prime Minister.

Helen Clark made a revealing comment today on this issue:

"I just say that with something like this, I think everyone in public life - whether they are media personalities or a politician or whoever - we're all vulnerable to someone deciding they will try a private prosecution and I think that is an issue of some concern,"

Missing a salient point though , Clark of course managed to wangle herself out of prison by changing the law last year to make her parties stealing of taxpayer money, to buy the 2005 election, legal.

Also missing prosecution for fraud, for falsely signing a painting and aiding and abetting dangerous driving when she ordered her drivers to speed through a small town at 170km per hour so she could watch a rugby game.

May I add, the amount of photo shopping of Helen's image on Labours' election material made voters think they were voting for Paris Hilton rather than the very sweet lady we know Aunt Helen to be.

But I digress.

Perhaps Helen could change the law to allow all Labour Politicians to be immune to private or criminal prosecution for assault or fraud. It would certainly have allowed a least half a dozen of her cabinet to escape the scrutiny her and her party faced when they transgressed various laws over the last 9 years.

What really made me laugh though is that Trev's lawyer wanted media banned from the courts proceedings because images of Mallard would reflect him in a bad light to the public and he would be associated with such "negative images" that would affect his reputation for the rest of his life.

Kerthump!!

The sound of me hitting the floor with laughter.

Mallard's reputation has been long associated with nastiness, bullying and pushing his weight around, so pictures of him sobbing falsely in the dock isn't going to do the poor boy any harm.

Trev will be back in the dock December 18 for the hearing.


C Political Animal 2007

Current credit crunch a blessing in disguise

The current credit crunch could turn out to be a blessing in disguise.

With the private equity boom earlier this year we saw cheap money being used to buy public companies at hugely over inflated values and it looked like it was going to escalate to the point of explosion and huge economic destruction looked certain.

This fallout was gazumped by the sub prime blowout where lunatic lending institutions lent money to private individuals for houses, cars and other goods and surprise surprise they couldn't pay their loans back.



The effect of the latter scenario though is the same outcome that would have happened had the private equity boys been allowed to continue to borrow money from the drunken sailors that were lending it to them- the credit market is very tight and bankers don't trust anyone all of a sudden.

Credit is tight right now, it has slowed down US M and A activity, the housing sector and investment in business expansion and will have further downstream effects as time wears on.

In New Zealand we have seen questions over our own finance companies going bust, 13 in the last 24 months or so and with more to come. They lent money to questionable property developments and car and chattel purchases and have cost a collective NZ$1.5 billion so far.

A major takeover of a large New Zealand company, Sky City Entertainment, is in peril because a couple of the interested private equity partners are having trouble raising cheap credit to purchase the casino and entertainment company.

What is the blessing?

Well, all this recklessness, which the financial world seems to like to go through with monotonous regularity, has put a brake on stupidity and seems to have focused the minds of lenders and borrowers.

Unfortunately the lenders have pulled back way too far and don't want to get their wallets out at all but the overreaction seems a mirror reaction to the gay abandon that they handed out dollars to anyone in a suit in the first instance.

These overreactions always happen and lenders will start to loosen again when trust is back in the market.

The focus from the beginning then, one would hope, that the reasons for lending money in the first case would pass the basic questions from the lender when one asks for credit.

Can he pay it back?

Is his credit history good?

In the case of a business, much the same but with the addition of whether the business makes money and are you paying too much for it.

Simple huh?

Then how come lenders got themselves and as a consequence, us, in this mess in the first place.

Until the next credit cycle of madness!


Disclosure: I own Sky City Shares


C Share Investor 2007

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C Share Investor 2007

NZ Herald Report: Auckland EFB protest lures 5000

More than twice as many protesters than the November 17 march, this level of interest indicates public opposition to the Electoral Finance Bill runs very high in all sectors of our community.

This fascist, communist type bill may be passed as soon as next week and it means from January 1, Blogs like this one wont be able to criticise the government or influence others to vote alternatively.

As this Blog has its servers outside of New Zealand it maybe hard for authorities to shut me or others down though!! I wont stop the backchat either way, its my bloody right.

NZ Herald Report: Auckland EFB protest lures 5000

Several thousand people have marched in Auckland this afternoon in protest at the government's Electoral Finance Bill.

Police estimates put the crowd at close on 5,000.

The first Auckland march against the bill, a fortnight ago, drew about 2,000.

Marchers then stayed in QEII Square listening to speeches telling them the bill threatens democracy in New Zealand. Organisers are delighted with the turnout, saying it indicates people are realising what the bill will mean for them when it becomes law.

Among the marchers were ACT leader Rodney Hide and high profile opponent of the bill Christine Rankin.

Marches were also held last month in Wellington and Christchurch.

Newstalk ZB & Political Animal 2007