Stock of the Week - Reprise 4: Contact Energy Ltd

If you have been following the share price of Contact Energy Ltd [CEN.NZX] over the last few years you would have noticed a good short-term trading pattern that many have exploited to make some fast money. Since March 2009 the share price has been up and down like a cheap K-Rd hooker on multiple occasions, ranging between around $5.50 at its lows to around $6.50 at its highs. (see chart above)

Since April 2010 though the stock has been trading at the lower end of this range and seems to be marking time for whatever reason.

If you look at the historical 10 year chart below you will see that the last time this stock settled at any share price range for an extended period was back in 2000-2001.

The historical nature of this stock is for it to keep climbing in share price.

Conclusion?

The market seems to be hanging back and waiting to see some news, either good or bad, that will move the share price in the appropriate direction.

As I have already said, CEN stock really has been marking time since March 2009 when the aforementioned trading pattern began but the tighter trading range of the last 6 months or so really has made this stock worth watching closely.

For those of you wanting this stock for the long term it will perform well and the probability that its majority owned Australian parent Origin Energy Ltd [ORG.ASX] will make a takeover move will be icing on the cake. Its current share price would make a move by the long termers a wise one.

On the other hand if you are one of those short term traders that have made money on this stock since early 2009 beware that the trading pattern has been broken and you could well see a dip below the $5.50 floor.

Happy investing!



Contact Energy @ Share Investor

Stock of the Week - Reprise 3: Contact Energy Ltd
Long Term View: Contact Energy Ltd
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Stock of the Week: Reprise - Contact Energy
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Follow the Monopoly Board

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c Share Investor 2010

Allan Hubbard Saga: Will He Walk?

With the third Grant Thornton Report due out sometime today or tomorrow on the details surrounding the statutory management of nearly a dozen Allan Hubbard charitable trusts and businesses and a decision due within weeks from the Serious Fraud Office (SFO) over possible fraudulent business practices on the part of Mr Hubbard and the business that he had financial and personal control over, it is looking doubtful as to whether Mr Hubbard is going to have to answer to his crimes.

I say this not because he hasn't committed fraud or been responsible for hoodwinking investors and taxpayers because he clearly has. The reason that I say what I am saying is that the track record for the SFO, the Securities Commission and a whole host of other financial regulatory bodies has been poor when it comes to actually prosecuting the perpetrators of financial crimes.

Just yesterday a Partner of Ernst & Young was found guilty for breaches in accounting disclosures for Feltex Carpets. Feltex Carpets directors all walked away scott free. Of the directors and CEOs of failed finance companies that have been brought to court, we have seen a myriad of them walk away from court proceedings either without any censure or with a small fine or a slap on the hand with a dry bus ticket.

Nobody has gone to jail, nobody has had a serious fine and it looks likely that nobody will.

These are the Hotchins, the Watsons the Bryers et al.

Of course this is unacceptable to most of us. These financial criminals have ripped off investors, through fraud, subterfuge and their own base greed, many investors have lost all they had and their lives are ruined and some have even taken the final solution.

The Allan Hubbard case appears to be no different. He has been rightly tarred with the same brush as the aforementioned and has the ignominious position as one of the few of these criminals to end up costing the taxpayer billions of dollars as his empire collapsed around him.

I would like to think that this case might be different and that Mr Hubbard and his fellow directors will be doing prison time for their misdeeds but either laws surrounding our financial regulatory regime are weak (they clearly are in my opinion) and or the prosecutors within our various financial regulators are sub-par.

Either way Mr Hubbard stands a good chance of getting away with his swindle even if he is found guilty of the accusations to be brought against him over the coming days and weeks.

Lets hope not.

Related Share Investor Reading

Download Grant Thornton Report 1
Download Grant Thornton Report 2

Allan Hubbard Saga: No Longer Bothered by Botherway
Allan Hubbard Saga: 60 Minutes Interview, Sept 23 2010
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Allan Hubbard Saga: Threats & the Mysterious PWC Report
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VIDEO: Jenni McManus Explains Allan Hubbard Collapse
Allan Hubbard Statement on SCF Receivership
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Market Alert: South Canterbury Finance to be placed in Receivership
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Thornton Report 2: Allan Hubbard Guilty as Charged
Allan Hubbard: Full TV3 Interview - July 16 2010
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Bothered by Simon Botherway
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Allied Farmers Fraud passes with little fanfare
Allied Farmers: What's it Worth?
Hanover, Allied Farmers deal more of the same
Jane Diplock Q & A Interview
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Hanover collapse: It was just a matter of time
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Greed is bad: Geneva Finance Folds
Financial 101: Learn before you leap
Kevin's Blog


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Buy The Intelligent Investor & more @ Fishpond.co.nz




c Share Investor 2010

Another Dick with no Balls

If it isn't bullying Peter Jackson around by threatening to close down his production of the Hobbit, it is petulant, childish behavior by primary school teachers, threatening the future of New Zealands children.

I am talking about nasty, filthy little unions who are always doing the best for themselves rather than the people they claim to represent.

I was absolutely disgusted yesterday by the behaviour of the teachers union and their treatment of their boss Ann Tolley at a conference in Rotorua.

They yelled and screamed, they sat silent holding childish little banners during a Tolley speech, ignoring their guest throughout.

I mean this is the kind of stuff their kids might do!

Some of them actually had their own kids there, reminiscent of the manipulation by some union teachers of their pupils when they got them write to Anne Tolly asking her for a pay rise!

What kind of bloody example is this setting for those they say they teach and care about?

It is clear though that they are putting themselves before their pupils when, like their secondary school counterparts, threaten to strike to get pay rises that are not possible during a deep recession.

Some would say that pupils of these teachers would be better off without them in the classroom, given their lack of morals, principles, their boorish and threatening behaviour and the clear refusal of them to teach properly to the new curriculum and the higher standards that go along with the improved syllabus.

They need some education though, as poor as it might be.

It is clear that this isn't about pupils and their education, it is about greed, it is about the inability and laziness of these teachers to teach to a standard that parents, their employers, want and it is about politics.

We need good teachers that will follow their bosses wishes and those good teachers should be paid more. Those filthy, dirty little collectives in the teachers unions who are clearly not up to par teaching-wise, need to be given the boot.

We don't need their poor example setting, low standards and inability to see that parents want better education.

Anne Tolly has a hard job, but she looks like a tough individual. She needs to stand her ground against these bastards and so far she has done an admirable job. It is time for her to turn the screws and send a message.

Our kids are not getting the best from union teachers and they deserve better.

c Darren Rickard 2010

Hallenstein Glassons Ltd: Should I stay or should I go?

The Hallenstein Glasson Holding Ltd [HLG.NZX] 2010 full year profit out today has managed to push shares in the company up by 12c to $4.24 at time of writing and it looks like the attached dividend of 17c will see a very good rise in stock price as short term dividend strippers come in for a quick buck. The rise in the HLG stock price has outstripped the rise in the NZX50 index (see chart above)

The share price at current levels (see 21 year chart below) has reached 2 years highs not seen since the pre-2008 stockmarket crash but is still well off its all-time high of around $5.75 (way too high) reached back in late 2006. It reached a low of not much more than 2 bucks in 2009 -way too low.

My very small investment in HLG began in July 2008 when I bought 1000 shares at $2.53 and since then if you include the increase in share price, dividends and tax credits I have had almost a 100% return in just over 2 years.

A pretty good return in the midst of the worst recession in my lifetime and time to have a look to see if this stock is worth selling.

My investment model rests on long-term returns but if somebody is willing to offer me good money for my shares after having had a n excellent return on my investment then who am I to argue?

I err on the side of holding, because the company is well managed and pays a very good dividend but anything north of 5 bucks will get me online to the broker for a sale.

I will let you know what happens.



Hallenstein Glasson @ Share Investor

Mixed Retail Outlook
Long Term View: Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
The History Of: Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
Hallenstein Guidance not indicative of wider retail recovery
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Why did you buy that stock? [Hallenstein Glasson]

Discuss HLG @ Share Investor Forum

Download HLG Company Reports
Download HLG Company History





Think Bigger: How to Raise Your Expectations and Achieve Everything by Michael Hill 





c Share Investor 2010