Woolworths supermarket consolidation an indicator of a move on The Warehouse?

Just to get my mind off problems related to our 3 week old baby girl stranded in Bangkok I thought I would have a go at discussing The Warehouse Group [WHS.NZ] and its possible connection to the strong rumour over the weekend that Progressive, owner and operator of Foodtown, Countdown and Woolworths supermarkets is going to consolidate their 3 brands into their "low-cost" brand Countdown.

Apart from the fact that I don't think it is a clever idea to ditch two great brands I think this process could be significant in the ongoing battle between Foodstuffs and Woolworths Ltd [WOW.AU] - owner of progressive - for control over the Warehouse.

I will tell you why I think this.

In trying to make things less confusing for consumers, by consolidating brands and possibly saving money on admin and other business costs, Woolworth's Oz could be ready to make their play for the red sheds.

With one supermarket brand instead of three, that leaves room for another brand, like a general merchant such as the Warehouse to fill the brand void.

It is a little bit of a leap in thought I know but it makes alot of sense from a brand and business point of view.

There have been some interesting moves by Wesfarmers Ltd [WES.ASX] in OZ lately - Woolworths Oz main competitor - they are the owner of Coles supermarkets and other brands and they are consolidating their food offers to the cheaper end of town as well.

This consolidation towards the bargain end of retailing is a global phenomenon currently, as businesses react to the economic downturn. As The Warehouse is the largest non grocery retailer in New Zealand and consistently its cheapest, as such it would be a perfect fit for Woolworth's Oz bargain priced Countdown food brand.

There are also a number of Westfield Holdings Ltd [WSF.ASX] mall sites in the country with both a Foodtown and a Countdown and presumably there would be a space left empty in some towns for a different store to take its place.

Two distinct brands covering a massive product reach under one company.

Makes sense to me.

Please keep in mind I am a WHS shareholder.

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Michael Hill International: 2009 full year profit commentary

The 2009 full year profit for Micheal Hill International [MHI.NZ] out yesterday was ugly, real ugly.

Summary of Key Points

- Operating revenue of $411.999m up 9.4%
- Same store sales 0.8% up on same period last year
- EBIT of $26.193m down 38% on last year
- Restructure of group in December 2008 resulting in a deferred tax credit of $52.942m
- Restructure consultancy costs of $1.226m expensed in the period
- US acquisition costs of $1.569m incurred in the period
- US segment loss of $5.292m for the period
- Net profit before tax of $20.149m down 46.3% on last year
- Net profit after tax of $69.533m (includes the deferred tax credit of $52.942m)
- Net debt reduced from $64.234m to $36.958m
- Operating cash flow of $47.643m for the period ($7.763m in 2008)
- 30 new stores opened during the twelve months, including 17 in the US, and 1 closed in Australia
- Total of 239 stores open at 30 June 2009
- Final dividend of 1.5 cents per share (no imputation credits attached)
- Total dividend for the year of 2.5 cents down from 3.2 cents in 2008


First the ugly stuff:

Ordinary profit after tax from operations was down by 46% on revenue up by over 9%.

One of the key reasons for this drop in profit was the purchase last year of a chain of bankrupt US jewelry stores that has so far cost MHI nearly NZ$7 million over the last 9 months. A small part of that cost was a one-off purchasing fee related to the acquisition, the rest an operating loss.

Management have indicated that more shareholder money will be spent refurbishing a handful of these US stores and as the retail environment in the US isn't going to recover any time soon it is likely the company will be in for substantial losses for the nest 12 months on US operations.

Michael Hill has said himself that the timing of the US purchase was a mistake (listen to Michael Hill interview - You need to register first) but as he has also said he has always wanted a foothold there, he has it now and holds a long-term view on its future success, as do I.

Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL.NZ] has also had recent difficulties with its US operations, incurring significant losses, so this is a very tough market, especially in the current economic conditions.

Michael Hill's Canadian stores have also dropped back into a small loss after being in the black last year.

New Zealand operations were down significantly, and all indications from the man on the street (my good self scoping foot traffic whenever I go past a MH store) are that things are not looking any better as we enter the new financial year.

The not so ugly:

Australian Michael Hill stores were immune from the retail downturn with both an increase in revenue and before tax profit. It is important to note though that Australia has yet to have an official recession, with economic indicators there still looking positive, so that is one explanation for its 2009 success.

Many NZX listed companies have managed their capital well during the credit squeeze and Micheal Hill has been exceptional in this case. They have nearly halved company debt to just over $35 million over the last year, without the use of any capital raising. A move to be admired by shareholders and other CEOs with less frugal spending habits.

The 2009 year has been one of the worst years in business for MHI over the last generation. Most of the indicators have been bad and things do not look any more promising in the coming 12 months. However, Australia has been an exceptional standout.

MHI management don't make predictions for the future but they do stress things will be tough over the 2010 financial year (well duh!) and its expansion into the USA is a long term play that will bear fruit in the future.

I picked up more MHI a few months ago for just this long term play.

9 .5 for effort, 6.5 for results.

Disclosure I own Michael Hill International shares in the Share Investor Portfolio.


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c Share Investor 2009

Freightways Ltd: 2009 Full Year profit commentary

OK, I am back to the wilderness of New Zealand from being ensconced in a hotel room and the back of taxi cabs in Bangkok for two weeks and the NZ stockmarket is smack in the middle of reporting season.

One company's results caught my fancy and I thought I would give you my thoughts on those results.

The full year profit to June 30 2009 that came out last week from Freightways Ltd [FRE.NZ] was a case of steady as she goes, at least at first glance

Revenue was up by 5% to NZ $340 million and net profit after tax up by 7% to just over $34 million. If you exclude the one-off $4 million profit on the sale and leaseback of a property then profit is down by over 12%. Not bad considering economic conditions but considering that revenue is up slightly it is clear that management have let business costs get out of control.

Having said that a large amount of that cost has been attributed to capital expenditure to allow for future growth and management say that this expense will achieve results in the coming year -10s of millions have been spent on many acquisitions over the last few years, which have been purchased with borrowed money.

Financing costs for a sizable company debt have also been considerable but a capital raising from earlier this year has been used to pay down some bank debt so this cost should be lessened for full year 2010.

Interesting that in comments about capital management, nothing was said about the sizable dividend being paid when profit was down. The company is borrowing heavily to fund this dividend and it should have been cut by more than it has. Other companies have done this during 2009 and for Freightway's management not to address this is very poor to say the least.

The courier businesses have been hit the hardest, while the company's purchase of document management businesses over the last several years seems to be paying off as these are achieving growth even when other parts of the the company have slowed.

Naturally management are cagey about company prospects for the coming year given economic uncertainty but I would have to say even if business operations and therefore revenue remain stagnant, the fact that a multitude of costs have been ameliorated in the current year will mean next years full year profit after tax should be substantially better than full year 2009.

The only worry and out clause about that statement is that management have flagged looking at buying businesses this year more than a few times and unless any prospective business is the "bargain of the century" and a great business to boot then such purchases would be folly given the still high company debt and issues surrounding the health of the global economy.

Overall, the full year 2009 result has been unexciting if not a little boring and disappointing from a shareholders point of view because opportunities to pay down more debt have been lost and the hiding of the fact that ordinary profit was actually down a reasonable amount, rather than the headline of a profit up 7% was disappointing management let down.

6.5 out of ten.

Disclosure: I own FRE shares in the Share Investor Portfolio


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Sky City Entertainment 2009 FY Profit Preamble

With Sky City Entertainment Group [SKC.NZ] reporting its FY 2009 profit this coming Wednesday 19 August, investors are not going to get any surprises.

The dividend ratio has been cut, debt has been paid back and profit is well up on last year.

On July 21 the market was updated with a profit up roughly 15% to around the NZ$116 million mark and since then shares have climbed to as high as $3.45 from about $2.80 before the upgrade. This is in a market where all shares are basically up.

What we need to know is how Nigel Morrison is going to go managing the company in the following 12 months and beyond.

In a sneak preview of an interview coming out in late August early September with Nigel I indicate the importance of this in my preamble:


Sound capital management with a focus on customer service and unnecessary costs stripped out have been the key to Nigel's success so far.

But what of the next 12 months and longer?

How will the business go under his leadership and what new ideas does he have to take this company through the $1 billion revenue barrier and beyond?

Morrison has done well but a further test of his strong management so far will come as Sky City emerges over the next year or so.

Shareholders and the market must see how Nigel will accomplish this and he should indicate the key ways he will achieve this, without revealing competitive secrets of course.

I look forward to Wednesday.


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Discuss this stock @ Share Investor Forum

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Put some questions to Nigel Morrison for the Interview.

You can submit them at the Share Investor Forum here or email them to me here and I will submit the best ones to Nigel.


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c Share Investor 2009