Mt Albert By-Election win a Turning Point in Labour Party Leadership

Congratulations to Labour's David Shearer for winning the Mt Albert By-Election by a landslide tonight.

He beat Melissa Lee from National, by a far larger majority than Helen Clark beat the National Candidate in the November 2008 General Election.

What does this tell us?

Well, it says that Shearer is a popular fellow, albeit in a safe seat a Labour party Monkey could win but what it also says is that Phil Goff's days as Labour Party leader are numbered.

With Helen Clark polling lower than Shearer and with Goff a part of Helen's old 2008 team the writing is on the wall for Goff. He was and is part of a dying Labour under Clark and now him and Shearer is its future.

The big win tonight really is the turning point for Goff's leadership and a grab for the top job cant be far off for Shearer and what will be his new team.

Goff simply cannot beat John Key in the 2011 General Election but after tonight Labour Party hierarchy will know for sure that David Shearer will have a much better chance.

Tonight's result has not been good for Phil Goff but it has been great for Labour's chances come 2011.

Related Amazon Reading

Transforming Leadership by James MacGregor Burns  Buy new: $10.88 / Used from: $6.34

c Political Animal 2009

LIVE: Mt Albert By Election Results - Final Results

Even though it might seem the results are a fait accompli, you can get Mt Albert Election day results here at Political Animal as they come in.

It aint over until the fat politician has his hands on your money.

By-Election Results -- Mt Albert (Final results)

Electorate Number: 26   Final: No Polling Places Counted: 30 of 30 (100.0%)   Votes Counted: 19,992 Less than 6 votes taken in Polling Places: 0   Special Votes: 1,114 Leading Candidate: SHEARER, David (LAB)   Majority: 9,187   Candidates BAGNALL, Jim IND   22 BAKER, Ari IND   15 BOSCAWEN, John ACT   943 BOYCE, Ben B&B   151 DYER, Simonne KIWI   85 FRANCE, Malcolm PBP   13 GREEN, Dakta ALCP   85 KANE, Rusty PCP   5 LEE, Melissa NAT   3,426 NORMAN, Russel GP   2,418 PISTORIUS, Julian LIB   35 SHEARER, David LAB   12,613 TURNER, Judy UFNZ   82 VAN DEN HEUVEL, Anthony Joseph James HR   14 WOOD, Jackson James IND   9 Candidate Informals   76 TOTAL   19,992

The Chief Electoral Office aims to have the official results for the 2009 Mt Albert by-election published here by noon Wednesday 24 June.

c Political Animal 2009

Contrarian Investor: Doris Mousdale

A few months ago I decided to get all Pollyanna-ish, to stop writing about the economy in the doldrums, because it is going to do what it is going to do and instead focus on stocks, business and as some in the financial world say look at things "going forward". The contrarian investor approach if you like.






Doris Mousdale

A positive spin, because I am sick of the mind numbing daily focus, usually inaccurate and at its worst pure guess work, of talking heads telling us how bad it is and how long it is going to last.

With this in mind I am going to do a series on people or businesses that are doing the opposite to everyone else.

Growing instead of retrenching, starting business rather than closing and hiring instead of firing - you get the picture.

I suppose I was inspired by Michael Hill's interview on 60 Minutes this last Monday where he told us that he was more positive and excited about his Michael Hill International [MHI.NZ] Jewelry business than any time in his life.

The man is looking at the global economic downturn as an opportunity to expand, get cheap retail sites and reach 1000 stores by 2020.

With this positive theme in mind lets take a look at the book business and one person in particular that has been in the business for many, many years, Doris Mousdale.

She has had positions with Whitcoulls, Dymocks, Real Groovy. Made redundant from her position with Dymocks in April she has decided to open up her own bookstore, Anthology, in Auckland's Newmarket shopping district.

Now with a very competitive book market in New Zealand and with book chains downsizing, shutting and moving head offices to Australia, Mousdale certainly has taken the bull by the horns and gone in the opposite direction.

She thinks her personal touch as an owner operator and experience in the book industry will mark her out from other book retailers:

"I'm feeling quite confident about it, I think the independent bookstore has a lot to offer the surrounding community. There are still people out there who want the next best read, and they want it recommended to them." See full story.

I think she is right. A point of difference is crucial to survival in business, especially in retail, especially in the cut-throat book biz and most certainly during an economic downturn.

Mousdale has a niche to fill - experience and personal service- because she cannot compete on price and title range with the Borders of this world and her move to position herself where she is , is canny to say the least.

This comes on top of a broad downturn in all retail and a movement away from pricier entertainment and gift giving to more affordable product like a book to read or a movie ticket, instead of that weekend way in Taupo.

If Doris can get through the tough times, her business is going to go from strength to strength and she has certainly chosen a opportune time to make her mark. Contrarian investors have almost always had better returns than those who go with the crowds, as their start up costs are always cheaper -in Mousdale's case with on going business expenses negotiated at a time when relative bargains can be had.

Good luck to her.

Related Links

Doris Reviews Books - Leightonsmith.co.nz

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c Share Investor 2009

Burger Fuel Worldwide: Closer look at Company Accounts

Further to yesterday's analysis of the Burger Fuel profit to 31/06/09, which I thought was misleading for shareholders, because of largely meaningless comparisons made between 2009 and 2008 profit. If you want to get a better picture of how things are really going have a look at the brief company accounts. ( you need to be a Share Investor Forum member to see them - join here)

Look especially at revenue for the company and where it comes from and look closely at year to year comparisons.

On first look the NZX release makes Burger Fuel Worldwide [BFW.NZ] position look quite good (and the lower loss is clearly a positive) but it is a different story once you look closer and in more detail.

Nice management spin.




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c Share Investor 2009