POLITICAL POLL: Roy Morgan July 4 2008

Political Animal note This poll was taken before the trucking protest began this week.

Finding No. 4305 - July 04, 2008

The early July 2008 New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National Party support at 51.5% (down 1%) clearly ahead of the Labour Party 30.5% (down 1%), if an election were held now the National Party would win.

Support for the Greens was 8% (up 1%), NZ First 4% (unchanged), Maori Party 2.5% (up 0.5%), ACT NZ 2% (unchanged) and United Future 1% (up 0.5%).

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen to a record low 88 (down 14) and the Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating is also at a record low 82 (down 5.5 points).

Gary Morgan says:

“The latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National Party support remains well ahead of Helen Clark’s Labour Government, National Party (51.5%) leading Labour (30.5%).

“New Zealanders are being squeezed by the rising prices of petrol and food. These pressures are forcing New Zealanders to cut back on spending with the Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating showing a record high number of New Zealanders (49%) saying now is a bad time to buy major household items.

“Helen Clark’s Labour Government is heading for defeat in the forthcoming election. They need to find a way to ease the pressures on New Zealanders by cutting interest rates now.”

Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say that things are seriously headed in the wrong direction?”

This latest Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 930 electors from June 16-29, 2008.

VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY

The following table compares the latest NZ Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the September 17, 2005 General Election:

PRIMARY VOTE	Labour	National	Progressive Party	NZ First	Green Party	United Future	Maori Party*	ACT NZ	Other
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
General Election, July 27, 2002	41.3	20.9	1.7	10.4	7	6.7	n/a	7.1	6.6
General Election, September 17, 2005	41.1	39.1	1.16	5.72	5.3	2.67	2.12	1.51	2.48
MORGAN POLL
September 20 - October 2, 2005	36.5	41.5	1	4.5	9	3	1	1.5	3
October 4-16, 2005	39	40.5	1	5	7	3.5	2	1.5	0.5
October 18-31, 2005	37.5	40	0.5	6	9	3.5	1	1	1.5
November 1-14, 2005	37.5	40	0.5	7	7	3	2	2	1
November 15-27, 2005	39	40.5	1	5.5	8.5	2	1	1.5	1
November 28 - December 9, 2005	40	40	0.5	6	7.5	2.5	1	1.5	1
January 4-12, 2006	40.5	42.5	0.5	4.5	6.5	1.5	2	0.5	1.5
January 13—23, 2006	39	40.5	0	4.5	8.5	3	1.5	1.5	1.5
January 24 - February 5, 2006	38.5	39	0.5	5.5	9.5	3	1.5	2.5	0
February 7-19, 2006	40	40	0.5	3.5	10	1.5	2.5	1.5	0.5
February 22 - March 6, 2006	43	39	0.5	4.5	7.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	1
March 7-19, 2006	42.5	41	0	3.5	7.5	2	2	1	0.5
March 20 - April 2, 2006	40	43	0.5	4.5	6.5	1.5	1.5	1	1.5
April 3-16, 2006	41.5	40	1	3.5	7	2	2	2.5	0.5
April 17-30, 2006	40.5	40.5	0.5	3.5	8.5	2.5	2.5	1.5	-
May 1-14, 2006	39.5	41	0.5	5	7.5	3	1	1.5	1
May 15-28, 2006	41	44	0.5	3	6.5	1.5	1.5	1	1
May 29 — June 11, 2006	40	44.5	-	4.5	6.5	2	1	1.5	-
June 12-25, 2006	37	45	0.5	5	6.5	1.5	2	1.5	1
July 3-16, 2006	43	39	-	4.5	8	2	1	1.5	1
July 17 - 30, 2006	40	42	-	3.5	8.5	2	2	1	1
July 31 - August 13, 2006	39	41	-	3.5	9	3	2	1.5	1
August 14-27, 2006	38.5	44	0.5	4	7	1	2.5	1.5	1
August 28 - September 10, 2006	41	38	0.5	5.5	8.5	2	3	1.5	^
September 16 - October 1, 2006	36	41.5	-	7	8.5	2.5	2.5	1.5	0.5
October 2-15, 2006	40	40	^	5	8.5	1.5	1.5	2	1.5
October 16-29, 2006	38.5	41	^	3	8	3	2.5	1.5	2.5
October 30 — November 12, 2006	38.5	42.5	0.5	5	7.5	1.5	2.5	0.5	1.5
November 13 - 26, 2006	37.5	42.5	^	4.5	8	3	2	1.5	1
November 27 - December 12, 2006	37.5	44.5	0.5	4	9.5	2	1	0.5	0.5
January 3-21, 2007	41	41	0.5	4	7.5	1	2	1.5	1.5
January 23 - February 5, 2007	39.5	41.5	0.5	4	8	1.5	2	2.5	0.5
February 6-18, 2007	36	48.5	^	3	8.5	1.5	1.5	1	-
February 19 - March 4, 2007	36	45	0.5	2	8.5	1.5	3.5	2.5	0.5
March 5-18, 2007	37.5	45	^	4	7.5	1.5	3.5	1	-
March 19 - April 2, 2007	35.5	46	^	3.5	9.5	1	2.5	1	1
April 3-16, 2007	33.5	45.5	^	6	8.5	2	2	1	1.5
April 23 - May 6, 2007	36	49.5	^	4.5	6	1.5	1.5	0.5	0.5
May 7-20, 2007	32	49	0.5	4.5	7	1.5	2.5	1.5	1.5
May 21 - June 3, 2007	33.5	50.5	-	3.5	6.5	2	1.5	2	0.5
June 4-17, 2007	36	49.5	0.5	3	6.5	0.5	1.5	1.5	1
June 18 - July 1, 2007	34	48.5	1	2.5	8.5	1.5	2	1	1
July 2-15, 2007	36	47	0.5	5	6.5	1	2	1.5	0.5
July 16-29, 2007	35	49	0.5	4	6	0.5	3	0.5	1.5
July 30 - August 12, 2007	31	50.5	0.5	4	7	2	3	1.5	0.5
August 20 - September 2, 2007	34	48	0.5	2.5	9.5	0.5	3	1	1
September 3-16, 2007	35	49	^	2.5	7.5	1	3	1.5	0.5
September 17-30, 2007	33	48.5	0.5	3	9.5	1.5	2.5	1	0.5
October 1-14, 2007	39	45.5	^	3	7.5	1.5	2	0.5	1
October 15-28, 2007	40.5	45	^	3.5	6.5	1.5	1.5	1	0.5
October 29-Novmber 11, 2007	34	48	^	5.5	7.5	1	2.5	1	0.5
November 12-25, 2007	35	48	0.5	5	6.5	0.5	2.5	1.5	0.5
November 26-December 9, 2007	34.5	47.5	0.5	5	6	1.5	2	2	1
January 3-20, 2008	33.5	52	0.5	3.5	6.5	0.5	2	1	0.5
January 21-February 3, 2008	36.5	45.5	0.5	4	9	0.5	1.5	2	0.5
February 4-17, 2008	32.5	51.5	0.5	3	8	0.5	3	0.5	0.5
February 18-March 2, 2008	35	49.5	0.5	4	7	0.5	2	1	0.5
March 3-16, 2008	34	51	0.5	3	6.5	1	2	2	0.5
March 24-April 6, 2008	34.5	47	0.5	4	9	0.5	3	1.5	^
April 7 - 20, 2008	35.5	50	^	3.5	6.5	0.5	2.5	1.5	^
April 21 - May 4, 2008	35.5	49.5	^	4.5	6.5	1	2	1	^
May 5-18, 2008	35	49	^	4	7.5	0.5	2.5	1	0.5
May 19 - June 1, 2008	32	50.5	0.5	4	7	1	3	1.5	0.5
June 2 - 15, 2008	31.5	52.5	^	4	7	0.5	2	2	0.5
June 16 - 29, 2008	30.5	51.5	^	4	8	1	2.5	2	0.5

*The Maori Party was launched in July 2004; ^ Result less than 0.5%

The Morgan Poll was the most accurate in predicting the small margin between the two major parties (a Labour lead of 1.5%) for the September 2005 General Election.

New Zealand Regional Voting Intention Summary

Auckland

MORGAN POLL	Labour	National	Progressive Alliance	NZ First	Green Party	United Future	Maori Party*	ACT NZ	Other
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%

July 2006	38	44.5	0.5	5.5	6	2	1.5	1.5	0.5
August 2006	38.5	43.5	^	3	8.5	2.5	2	1.5	0.5
September 2006	41	41.5	0.5	2.5	8	2.5	1.5	1.5	1
October 2006	35	44.5	^	5	9.5	2	2	2	^
November 2006	33	47	0.5	5.5	8	1.5	2.5	1.5	0.5
December 2006	36	46	^	4	9	1.5	2	1	0.5
January 2007	38	44	0.5	3.5	7.5	1.5	2	1.5	1.5
February 2007	34.5	49.5	0.5	3.5	6.5	0.5	1	3	1
March 2007	37.5	46	^	2.5	8	1.5	2.5	1.5	0.5
April 2007	35.5	45	^	2.5	10	2	2.5	2	0.5
May 2007	35	48	^	3.5	7	2	3	0.5	1
June 2007	30.5	54.5	^	3.5	6.5	1	1	2	1
July 2007	32.5	52	^	2	5.5	2	3	2	1
August 2007	30	53	^	4.5	6.5	1.5	2.5	1	1
September 2007	32.5	54.5	^	2	6.5	^	3.5	0.5	0.5
October 2007	35.5	51	^	2.5	6.5	1	2.5	1	^
November 2007	36	50	^	5	4.5	0.5	2.5	1	0.5
December 2007	33.5	51.5	^	4	5	1	2	2.5	0.5
January 2008	34	52	^	4	7	0.5	1	1.5	^
February 2008	36	48	0.5	2.5	8	0.5	2	2	0.5
March 2008	32.5	52	0.5	3	7.5	1	1.5	1.5	0.5
April 2008	32.5	51	^	3.5	8.5	^	1.5	2.5	0.5
May 2008	33.5	51.5	^	4	6.5	1	2	1	0.5
June 2008	32	51.5	0.5	3.5	7	0.5	2.5	2	0.5

Wellington

MORGAN POLL	Labour	National	Progressive Alliance	NZ First	Green Party	United Future	Maori Party*	ACT NZ	Other
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
July — August 2006	47.5	36	^	2.5	7.5	1.5	2	2	1
September — October 2006	50	32.5	0.5	1.5	8	2	1.5	2.5	1.5
November — December 2006	44.5	36.5	^	1.5	9	3.5	2	1.5	1.5
January — February 2007	44	38	0.5	1.5	11.5	1	2	1	0.5
March — April 2007	41.5	38.5	^	4	8.5	2	4	0.5	1
May — June 2007	36.5	43.5	^	3	10.5	2	2	1.5	1
July — August 2007	40.5	41.5	0.5	2.5	9	2	2.5	1.5	^
September — October 2007	39.5	38	1	2.5	13.5	2	2	1	0.5
November — December 2007	34	41	0.5	3	13	2	2.5	2.5	1.5
January — February 2008	39.5	42	^	3.5	10	0.5	3	1	0.5
March — April 2008	40	43.5	^	1.5	11.5	0.5	1.5	1	0.5
May — June 2008	38	44.5	^	3	9	1	1.5	2.5	0.5

Christchurch

MORGAN POLL	Labour	National	Progressive Alliance	NZ First	Green Party	United Future	Maori Party*	ACT NZ	Other
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
July — August 2006	42	41	^	2.5	10	2	0.5	1	0.5
September — October 2006	39	40	0.5	6.5	8	1.5	0.5	2.5	1.5
November — December 2006	43.5	36.5	1	5	8.5	2.5	0.5	2	1
January — February 2007	38	40	1	3	11	2.5	1	2.5	1
March — April 2007	33.5	43.5	1	6	10	2.5	1	1.5	1
May — June 2007	38	47.5	1	2.5	6.5	1	1.5	1	1
July — August 2007	36	46	1.5	5	7	1.5	1	^	2
September — October 2007	43	42.5	0.5	1	8	1	2	1	1
November — December 2007	39	47.5	1	3.5	7	0.5	0.5	1	^
January — February 2008	29	57	1	3	8	0.5	1	0.5	^
March — April 2008	39.5	44	1	2	8.5	1	1.5	1.5	1
May — June 2008	38	49.5	^	3.5	6.5	0.5	1	0.5	0.5

Other North Island

MORGAN POLL	Labour	National	Progressive Alliance	NZ First	Green Party	United Future	Maori Party*	ACT NZ	Other
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
July — August 2006	36.5	43.5	^	6	7	2	3	1.5	0.5
September — October 2006	34.5	42	^	8	7.5	1.5	4.5	1.5	0.5
November — December 2006	35.5	44.5	^	5	7	2.5	3.5	1	1
January — February 2007	37	45	^	5.5	6	1.5	3.5	1	0.5
March — April 2007	32	49.5	^	5	6.5	1	4	1.5	0.5
May — June 2007	33.5	51.5	^	5.5	4.5	1.5	2	1	0.5
July — August 2007	32	50	0.5	4.5	7	1	3.5	1	0.5
September — October 2007	32	49	^	4.5	8.5	1	4	0.5	0.5
November — December 2007	35.5	46.5	^	6	5.5	1	3.5	1	1
January — February 2008	32	50	0.5	4.5	7	0.5	4	0.5	1
March — April 2008	31	51.5	^	6	5.5	0.5	4	1	0.5
May — June 2008	31	51.5	^	5	6	0.5	4	1.5	0.5

Other South Island

MORGAN POLL	Labour	National	Progressive Alliance	NZ First	Green Party	United Future	Maori Party*	ACT NZ	Other
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
July — August 2006	41	40.5	^	3	11	2.5	0.5	^	1.5
September — October 2006	43.5	42	^	3.5	7	2	1	1	^
November — December 2006	40.5	42.5	1	2.5	9	3	1	^	0.5
January — February 2007	46.5	40.5	^	1.5	8.5	1.5	^	0.5	1
March — April 2007	40	44	^	3	10	1	1	0.5	0.5
May — June 2007	36	49.5	^	3	7	1	1	1.5	1
July — August 2007	38	46	1	3	7	1	1.5	0.5	2
September — October 2007	35.5	49.5	^	1.5	8.5	2	1	1.5	0.5
November — December 2007	39	44.5	^	5	9	2	^	0.5	^
January — February 2008	34.5	51	^	3.5	9	0.5	^	1	0.5
March — April 2008	40.5	49.5	^	1.5	5	1.5	1.5	^	0.5
May — June 2008	33	52	^	3.5	9.5	0.5	1	0.5	^

NEW ZEALAND: HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION?

Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

	New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates
	Aug 20-Sep 2, 2007	Sep 3-16, 2007	Sep 17-30, 2007	Oct 1-14, 2007	Oct 15-28, 2007	Oct 29-Nov 11, 2007	Nov 12-25, 2007	Nov 26-Dec 9, 2007	Jan 3-20, 2008	Jan 21-Feb 3, 2008	Feb 4-17, 2008
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Right direction	51.5	54	49.5	53	50.5	43.5	47	47.5	46.5	46	47
Wrong direction	35.5	32.5	34.5	32	33	37.5	37	38	39	38.5	41
Roy Morgan GCR#	116	121.5	115	121	117.5	106	110	109.5	107.5	107.5	106
Can’t say	13	13.5	16	15	16.5	19	16	14.5	14.5	15.5	12
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).

	New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates
	Feb 18-Mar 2, 2008	Mar 3-16, 2008	Mar 24- Apr 6, 2008	Apr 7-20, 2008	April 21-May 4, 2008	May 5-18, 2008	May 19-June 1, 2008	June 2-15, 2008	June 16-29, 2008
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Right direction	52.5	45.5	47.5	50.5	44.5	38	38	42.5	37
Wrong direction	34	37.5	37.5	34.5	40.5	44.5	44.5	40.5	49
Roy Morgan GCR#	118.5	108	110	116	104.5	93.5	93.5	102	88
Can’t say	13.5	17	15	15	15	17.5	17.5	17	14
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).

For further information:

Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4

Finding No. 4305 is taken from Computer Report No. 2252

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

Helen Clark Naked

Visitors to this site come from some interesting places and for various reasons.

We get individuals from various government departments checking up on themselves. Labour regularly have a read as well as various State funded lackys from the likes of Cindy Kiro's office and the mad Greens.

Googlers have been searching for stories on the truckers protest, Ian Wishart's Absolute Power Book, political polls and anti smacking topics.

The Google searches have however plumbed some disturbing depths this last week.

I have had 3 separate searches detailed as follows, "Helen Clark Naked" and they end up here on Political Animal. Now I know Ms Clark is attractive to her University lecturer husband but I question the sanity of the Googlers.

darrenrickard.blogspot.com/2008/02/helen-clarks-slipping-teflon-makeup.html
darrenrickard.blogspot.com/2008/02/helen-clarks-slipping-teflon-makeup.html
www.google.com/search?hl=en&rls=com.microsoft%3Aen-us%3AIE-Address&rlz=1I7HPAA&q=Helen clark naked&btnG=Search


Can one of my readers tell me if there is a supermodel out there with the same name as the New Zealand Prime Minister?

c Political Animal 2008

The backlash has begun

Today's protest by truckers, and over 5000 trucks, over the surprize increase in road user charges foisted on them is merely a symptom of a much wider malaise brought on by the nanny state Labour government.


NZ Herald Coverage

• Your photos of truckies protest
• Herald photos of the truck protest
• Wellington truck protest (nzherald.co.nz)
• Reader video of trucks in Auckland
• Christchurch truck protest (nzherald.co.nz)
• Queen St - home to cappucino commuters and logging trucks
• Clark says backdown on road user charge price rise unlikely
• Auckland Protest
  

I asked in a column last year when will Kiwis get angry, when will the backlash start? and I ruminated thus:

I'm just wondering to myself, when is there going to be a backlash? Where is the anger, the outrage, the venom, has Clark's regime breed the mongrel out of us?

I have a feeling we have seen the the answer today.

The Electoral Finance Act protests last year, which I participated in, just didn't gel with "middle New Zealand", truckers got the job done.

At the hand of a rapacious spending and wildly out of control tax system workers finally have a chance to revolt against the revolting.

Even traditional Labour voters are disillusioned. They have historically have been supporters of the "workers party" and these voters have seen Labour spending their hard earned tax dollars on things like billion dollar train sets and flashy ministerial cars while they have to cut back.

The country is in recession and headed for worse, and all Annette King can do is raise taxes for truckers , thereby making it harder for working kiwis because this affects the cost of all consumer goods.

As usual, Labour show their disdain and hatred for the working man and kick them when they are down.

The response from Ms Clark today when asked about whether she heard the convoy of 300 trucks passing the parliamentary precinct tooting their horns?

"I didn't hear it and was too busy doing more important work".

The speeding motorcade at 170km through a 50km zone to get to a rugby game a few years back elicited the same response from Ms Clark, she didn't notice, hear or see anything.

It seems, to get Ms Clark or anyone else in the Labour cabinet to take notice of what is going on around them she would have to be slapped across the face with a semi-trailer full of National Party voters, but of course it is an offence now to reprimand silly little children.

We had a big march of 40000 up Aucklands Queen St in 1981 and riots in the same street in 1984 because we had a National government that just wouldn't listen to its people and Robert Muldoon, the Prime Minister, was ousted in a landslide that same year.

New Zealand is facing similar tough times at the moment and the deafening silence from those in power doesn't bode well come election 2008, and that dear readers is good news for us all.

Related Political Animal Reading

Waiting for the backlash
Commerce Commission needs to derail KiwiRail owners

c Political Animal 2008