POLITICAL POLL: Roy Morgan Poll, 10 July 2009

In a remarkable feat the National Party have managed to increase their big lead over the Labour Party to 54% vs Labour dropping to 31.5%.

I say remarkable as it flies in the face of John Key's continuation of Labour social policies of state intervention and meddling in citizen's lives that has marked Labours last 9 years as a complete failure.

From Roy Morgan 

In early July support for John Key’s Coalition Government is 58.5% (up 1%) comprising National Party 54% (up 2%), Maori Party 3% (up 0.5%), ACT NZ 1% (down 1.5%), and United Future 0.5% (unchanged) according to the Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll conducted June 22 — July 5, 2009.

Support for Opposition parties is 41.5% (down 1%); Labour Party 31.5% (down 1.5%), Greens 8% (up 0.5%), NZ First 1% (unchanged), Progressive Party 0.5% (unchanged) and Others 0.5% (unchanged.

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is at 140 (down 10.5 points) with 63% (down 6%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 23% (up 4.5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction.’

During the same period, the Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating is up 2.7 points to 106.1.

 

Gary Morgan says:

“In mid June the ruling National Party-led Coalition (58.5%, up 1%) has increased its strong lead over the Opposition Parties (41.5%, down 1%) the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows.

“Despite increased concern about the direction the country is heading and Opposition Leader Phil Goff’s continued questioning of what the National Party Government has done to alleviate the economic problems facing the country — these attacks do not yet appear to be making an impact on support for the Government.

“NZ First Leader Winston Peters has returned to the political stage in recent weeks attacking the Government for considering the repeal of the Foreshore & Seabed Act — which concerns title to New Zealand’s foreshore and beaches. This Morgan Poll shows that Peters is yet to translate his renewed prominence with an increase in support for NZ First (1%, unchanged).”

See Roy Morgan for more detail.

Key is running the economy better than it has been in a generation but the social interference and PC nonsense is going to kick them in the goolies sometime in the future.

I would say this was a lucky poll more than anything else and support will taper as Key's Socialist agenda continues to roll out.

c Political Animal 2009

The Poll's toll for Labour

The Roy Morgan Poll out last Friday is the continuation of a trend of political polls going back more than a year that have confirmed a clear split of over 20 points between Labour and National since October.

The Roy Morgan Poll is a critical one as it predicted accurately the outcome of the 2005 Election and the polls leading up to it.

If National were to continue the current polling trend then they would have a clear majority to govern the country on its own.

The latest poll was taken before the two major protests of last week, against the unpopular Labour Party and its increasingly out of touch stance with the average Kiwi working person.

Increasingly as public opinion goes against Labour, the Prime Minister and her cabinet have resorted to vicious personal attacks on John Key. All of which have backfired in spectacular fashion because of inaccurate details and "misspeaking" by the Prime Minister, Helen Clark.

Comments on previous polls by Labour have been called "rogue polls" by the Prime Minister and inaccurate by the support party New Zealand First.

c Political Animal 2008

POLITICAL POLL: Roy Morgan July 4 2008

Political Animal note This poll was taken before the trucking protest began this week.

Finding No. 4305 - July 04, 2008

The early July 2008 New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National Party support at 51.5% (down 1%) clearly ahead of the Labour Party 30.5% (down 1%), if an election were held now the National Party would win.

Support for the Greens was 8% (up 1%), NZ First 4% (unchanged), Maori Party 2.5% (up 0.5%), ACT NZ 2% (unchanged) and United Future 1% (up 0.5%).

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen to a record low 88 (down 14) and the Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating is also at a record low 82 (down 5.5 points).

Gary Morgan says:

“The latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National Party support remains well ahead of Helen Clark’s Labour Government, National Party (51.5%) leading Labour (30.5%).

“New Zealanders are being squeezed by the rising prices of petrol and food. These pressures are forcing New Zealanders to cut back on spending with the Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating showing a record high number of New Zealanders (49%) saying now is a bad time to buy major household items.

“Helen Clark’s Labour Government is heading for defeat in the forthcoming election. They need to find a way to ease the pressures on New Zealanders by cutting interest rates now.”

Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say that things are seriously headed in the wrong direction?”

This latest Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 930 electors from June 16-29, 2008.

VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY

The following table compares the latest NZ Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the September 17, 2005 General Election:

PRIMARY VOTE	Labour	National	Progressive Party	NZ First	Green Party	United Future	Maori Party*	ACT NZ	Other
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
General Election, July 27, 2002	41.3	20.9	1.7	10.4	7	6.7	n/a	7.1	6.6
General Election, September 17, 2005	41.1	39.1	1.16	5.72	5.3	2.67	2.12	1.51	2.48
MORGAN POLL
September 20 - October 2, 2005	36.5	41.5	1	4.5	9	3	1	1.5	3
October 4-16, 2005	39	40.5	1	5	7	3.5	2	1.5	0.5
October 18-31, 2005	37.5	40	0.5	6	9	3.5	1	1	1.5
November 1-14, 2005	37.5	40	0.5	7	7	3	2	2	1
November 15-27, 2005	39	40.5	1	5.5	8.5	2	1	1.5	1
November 28 - December 9, 2005	40	40	0.5	6	7.5	2.5	1	1.5	1
January 4-12, 2006	40.5	42.5	0.5	4.5	6.5	1.5	2	0.5	1.5
January 13—23, 2006	39	40.5	0	4.5	8.5	3	1.5	1.5	1.5
January 24 - February 5, 2006	38.5	39	0.5	5.5	9.5	3	1.5	2.5	0
February 7-19, 2006	40	40	0.5	3.5	10	1.5	2.5	1.5	0.5
February 22 - March 6, 2006	43	39	0.5	4.5	7.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	1
March 7-19, 2006	42.5	41	0	3.5	7.5	2	2	1	0.5
March 20 - April 2, 2006	40	43	0.5	4.5	6.5	1.5	1.5	1	1.5
April 3-16, 2006	41.5	40	1	3.5	7	2	2	2.5	0.5
April 17-30, 2006	40.5	40.5	0.5	3.5	8.5	2.5	2.5	1.5	-
May 1-14, 2006	39.5	41	0.5	5	7.5	3	1	1.5	1
May 15-28, 2006	41	44	0.5	3	6.5	1.5	1.5	1	1
May 29 — June 11, 2006	40	44.5	-	4.5	6.5	2	1	1.5	-
June 12-25, 2006	37	45	0.5	5	6.5	1.5	2	1.5	1
July 3-16, 2006	43	39	-	4.5	8	2	1	1.5	1
July 17 - 30, 2006	40	42	-	3.5	8.5	2	2	1	1
July 31 - August 13, 2006	39	41	-	3.5	9	3	2	1.5	1
August 14-27, 2006	38.5	44	0.5	4	7	1	2.5	1.5	1
August 28 - September 10, 2006	41	38	0.5	5.5	8.5	2	3	1.5	^
September 16 - October 1, 2006	36	41.5	-	7	8.5	2.5	2.5	1.5	0.5
October 2-15, 2006	40	40	^	5	8.5	1.5	1.5	2	1.5
October 16-29, 2006	38.5	41	^	3	8	3	2.5	1.5	2.5
October 30 — November 12, 2006	38.5	42.5	0.5	5	7.5	1.5	2.5	0.5	1.5
November 13 - 26, 2006	37.5	42.5	^	4.5	8	3	2	1.5	1
November 27 - December 12, 2006	37.5	44.5	0.5	4	9.5	2	1	0.5	0.5
January 3-21, 2007	41	41	0.5	4	7.5	1	2	1.5	1.5
January 23 - February 5, 2007	39.5	41.5	0.5	4	8	1.5	2	2.5	0.5
February 6-18, 2007	36	48.5	^	3	8.5	1.5	1.5	1	-
February 19 - March 4, 2007	36	45	0.5	2	8.5	1.5	3.5	2.5	0.5
March 5-18, 2007	37.5	45	^	4	7.5	1.5	3.5	1	-
March 19 - April 2, 2007	35.5	46	^	3.5	9.5	1	2.5	1	1
April 3-16, 2007	33.5	45.5	^	6	8.5	2	2	1	1.5
April 23 - May 6, 2007	36	49.5	^	4.5	6	1.5	1.5	0.5	0.5
May 7-20, 2007	32	49	0.5	4.5	7	1.5	2.5	1.5	1.5
May 21 - June 3, 2007	33.5	50.5	-	3.5	6.5	2	1.5	2	0.5
June 4-17, 2007	36	49.5	0.5	3	6.5	0.5	1.5	1.5	1
June 18 - July 1, 2007	34	48.5	1	2.5	8.5	1.5	2	1	1
July 2-15, 2007	36	47	0.5	5	6.5	1	2	1.5	0.5
July 16-29, 2007	35	49	0.5	4	6	0.5	3	0.5	1.5
July 30 - August 12, 2007	31	50.5	0.5	4	7	2	3	1.5	0.5
August 20 - September 2, 2007	34	48	0.5	2.5	9.5	0.5	3	1	1
September 3-16, 2007	35	49	^	2.5	7.5	1	3	1.5	0.5
September 17-30, 2007	33	48.5	0.5	3	9.5	1.5	2.5	1	0.5
October 1-14, 2007	39	45.5	^	3	7.5	1.5	2	0.5	1
October 15-28, 2007	40.5	45	^	3.5	6.5	1.5	1.5	1	0.5
October 29-Novmber 11, 2007	34	48	^	5.5	7.5	1	2.5	1	0.5
November 12-25, 2007	35	48	0.5	5	6.5	0.5	2.5	1.5	0.5
November 26-December 9, 2007	34.5	47.5	0.5	5	6	1.5	2	2	1
January 3-20, 2008	33.5	52	0.5	3.5	6.5	0.5	2	1	0.5
January 21-February 3, 2008	36.5	45.5	0.5	4	9	0.5	1.5	2	0.5
February 4-17, 2008	32.5	51.5	0.5	3	8	0.5	3	0.5	0.5
February 18-March 2, 2008	35	49.5	0.5	4	7	0.5	2	1	0.5
March 3-16, 2008	34	51	0.5	3	6.5	1	2	2	0.5
March 24-April 6, 2008	34.5	47	0.5	4	9	0.5	3	1.5	^
April 7 - 20, 2008	35.5	50	^	3.5	6.5	0.5	2.5	1.5	^
April 21 - May 4, 2008	35.5	49.5	^	4.5	6.5	1	2	1	^
May 5-18, 2008	35	49	^	4	7.5	0.5	2.5	1	0.5
May 19 - June 1, 2008	32	50.5	0.5	4	7	1	3	1.5	0.5
June 2 - 15, 2008	31.5	52.5	^	4	7	0.5	2	2	0.5
June 16 - 29, 2008	30.5	51.5	^	4	8	1	2.5	2	0.5

*The Maori Party was launched in July 2004; ^ Result less than 0.5%

The Morgan Poll was the most accurate in predicting the small margin between the two major parties (a Labour lead of 1.5%) for the September 2005 General Election.

New Zealand Regional Voting Intention Summary

Auckland

MORGAN POLL	Labour	National	Progressive Alliance	NZ First	Green Party	United Future	Maori Party*	ACT NZ	Other
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%

July 2006	38	44.5	0.5	5.5	6	2	1.5	1.5	0.5
August 2006	38.5	43.5	^	3	8.5	2.5	2	1.5	0.5
September 2006	41	41.5	0.5	2.5	8	2.5	1.5	1.5	1
October 2006	35	44.5	^	5	9.5	2	2	2	^
November 2006	33	47	0.5	5.5	8	1.5	2.5	1.5	0.5
December 2006	36	46	^	4	9	1.5	2	1	0.5
January 2007	38	44	0.5	3.5	7.5	1.5	2	1.5	1.5
February 2007	34.5	49.5	0.5	3.5	6.5	0.5	1	3	1
March 2007	37.5	46	^	2.5	8	1.5	2.5	1.5	0.5
April 2007	35.5	45	^	2.5	10	2	2.5	2	0.5
May 2007	35	48	^	3.5	7	2	3	0.5	1
June 2007	30.5	54.5	^	3.5	6.5	1	1	2	1
July 2007	32.5	52	^	2	5.5	2	3	2	1
August 2007	30	53	^	4.5	6.5	1.5	2.5	1	1
September 2007	32.5	54.5	^	2	6.5	^	3.5	0.5	0.5
October 2007	35.5	51	^	2.5	6.5	1	2.5	1	^
November 2007	36	50	^	5	4.5	0.5	2.5	1	0.5
December 2007	33.5	51.5	^	4	5	1	2	2.5	0.5
January 2008	34	52	^	4	7	0.5	1	1.5	^
February 2008	36	48	0.5	2.5	8	0.5	2	2	0.5
March 2008	32.5	52	0.5	3	7.5	1	1.5	1.5	0.5
April 2008	32.5	51	^	3.5	8.5	^	1.5	2.5	0.5
May 2008	33.5	51.5	^	4	6.5	1	2	1	0.5
June 2008	32	51.5	0.5	3.5	7	0.5	2.5	2	0.5

Wellington

MORGAN POLL	Labour	National	Progressive Alliance	NZ First	Green Party	United Future	Maori Party*	ACT NZ	Other
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
July — August 2006	47.5	36	^	2.5	7.5	1.5	2	2	1
September — October 2006	50	32.5	0.5	1.5	8	2	1.5	2.5	1.5
November — December 2006	44.5	36.5	^	1.5	9	3.5	2	1.5	1.5
January — February 2007	44	38	0.5	1.5	11.5	1	2	1	0.5
March — April 2007	41.5	38.5	^	4	8.5	2	4	0.5	1
May — June 2007	36.5	43.5	^	3	10.5	2	2	1.5	1
July — August 2007	40.5	41.5	0.5	2.5	9	2	2.5	1.5	^
September — October 2007	39.5	38	1	2.5	13.5	2	2	1	0.5
November — December 2007	34	41	0.5	3	13	2	2.5	2.5	1.5
January — February 2008	39.5	42	^	3.5	10	0.5	3	1	0.5
March — April 2008	40	43.5	^	1.5	11.5	0.5	1.5	1	0.5
May — June 2008	38	44.5	^	3	9	1	1.5	2.5	0.5

Christchurch

MORGAN POLL	Labour	National	Progressive Alliance	NZ First	Green Party	United Future	Maori Party*	ACT NZ	Other
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
July — August 2006	42	41	^	2.5	10	2	0.5	1	0.5
September — October 2006	39	40	0.5	6.5	8	1.5	0.5	2.5	1.5
November — December 2006	43.5	36.5	1	5	8.5	2.5	0.5	2	1
January — February 2007	38	40	1	3	11	2.5	1	2.5	1
March — April 2007	33.5	43.5	1	6	10	2.5	1	1.5	1
May — June 2007	38	47.5	1	2.5	6.5	1	1.5	1	1
July — August 2007	36	46	1.5	5	7	1.5	1	^	2
September — October 2007	43	42.5	0.5	1	8	1	2	1	1
November — December 2007	39	47.5	1	3.5	7	0.5	0.5	1	^
January — February 2008	29	57	1	3	8	0.5	1	0.5	^
March — April 2008	39.5	44	1	2	8.5	1	1.5	1.5	1
May — June 2008	38	49.5	^	3.5	6.5	0.5	1	0.5	0.5

Other North Island

MORGAN POLL	Labour	National	Progressive Alliance	NZ First	Green Party	United Future	Maori Party*	ACT NZ	Other
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
July — August 2006	36.5	43.5	^	6	7	2	3	1.5	0.5
September — October 2006	34.5	42	^	8	7.5	1.5	4.5	1.5	0.5
November — December 2006	35.5	44.5	^	5	7	2.5	3.5	1	1
January — February 2007	37	45	^	5.5	6	1.5	3.5	1	0.5
March — April 2007	32	49.5	^	5	6.5	1	4	1.5	0.5
May — June 2007	33.5	51.5	^	5.5	4.5	1.5	2	1	0.5
July — August 2007	32	50	0.5	4.5	7	1	3.5	1	0.5
September — October 2007	32	49	^	4.5	8.5	1	4	0.5	0.5
November — December 2007	35.5	46.5	^	6	5.5	1	3.5	1	1
January — February 2008	32	50	0.5	4.5	7	0.5	4	0.5	1
March — April 2008	31	51.5	^	6	5.5	0.5	4	1	0.5
May — June 2008	31	51.5	^	5	6	0.5	4	1.5	0.5

Other South Island

MORGAN POLL	Labour	National	Progressive Alliance	NZ First	Green Party	United Future	Maori Party*	ACT NZ	Other
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
July — August 2006	41	40.5	^	3	11	2.5	0.5	^	1.5
September — October 2006	43.5	42	^	3.5	7	2	1	1	^
November — December 2006	40.5	42.5	1	2.5	9	3	1	^	0.5
January — February 2007	46.5	40.5	^	1.5	8.5	1.5	^	0.5	1
March — April 2007	40	44	^	3	10	1	1	0.5	0.5
May — June 2007	36	49.5	^	3	7	1	1	1.5	1
July — August 2007	38	46	1	3	7	1	1.5	0.5	2
September — October 2007	35.5	49.5	^	1.5	8.5	2	1	1.5	0.5
November — December 2007	39	44.5	^	5	9	2	^	0.5	^
January — February 2008	34.5	51	^	3.5	9	0.5	^	1	0.5
March — April 2008	40.5	49.5	^	1.5	5	1.5	1.5	^	0.5
May — June 2008	33	52	^	3.5	9.5	0.5	1	0.5	^

NEW ZEALAND: HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION?

Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

	New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates
	Aug 20-Sep 2, 2007	Sep 3-16, 2007	Sep 17-30, 2007	Oct 1-14, 2007	Oct 15-28, 2007	Oct 29-Nov 11, 2007	Nov 12-25, 2007	Nov 26-Dec 9, 2007	Jan 3-20, 2008	Jan 21-Feb 3, 2008	Feb 4-17, 2008
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Right direction	51.5	54	49.5	53	50.5	43.5	47	47.5	46.5	46	47
Wrong direction	35.5	32.5	34.5	32	33	37.5	37	38	39	38.5	41
Roy Morgan GCR#	116	121.5	115	121	117.5	106	110	109.5	107.5	107.5	106
Can’t say	13	13.5	16	15	16.5	19	16	14.5	14.5	15.5	12
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).

	New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates
	Feb 18-Mar 2, 2008	Mar 3-16, 2008	Mar 24- Apr 6, 2008	Apr 7-20, 2008	April 21-May 4, 2008	May 5-18, 2008	May 19-June 1, 2008	June 2-15, 2008	June 16-29, 2008
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Right direction	52.5	45.5	47.5	50.5	44.5	38	38	42.5	37
Wrong direction	34	37.5	37.5	34.5	40.5	44.5	44.5	40.5	49
Roy Morgan GCR#	118.5	108	110	116	104.5	93.5	93.5	102	88
Can’t say	13.5	17	15	15	15	17.5	17.5	17	14
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).

For further information:

Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4

Finding No. 4305 is taken from Computer Report No. 2252

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.