Ralph Norris will pounce, you can bank on it

Given the recent marriage between Westpac and St George Bank[SG.AX] to forge Australia's biggest bank, to surpass the size of The Commonwealth Bank of Australia [CBA.AX] it seems unlikely that Ralph Norris, the CEO of CBA, will rest on his laurels.

Australia's banking sector has been ripe for consolidation for some time and talk of marriages and takeovers of various Aussie banks has been rife for the last few years.

It just so happens that Gail Kelly, the current CEO of Westpac Banking Corp [WBC.AX], was the former head of St George until August 2007 and she has wasted no time in making her presence felt at Westpac by moving to swallow the fifth largest bank in Australia, St George.

Ralph Norris is going to be biting at the bit to get his hands on one of the smaller sized oz banks as he cannot make a bid for any one of the "big 4" for competition reasons. Suncorp Metway [SUNN.AX], Australia's 6th largest bank and 4th largest insurer, would be a great fit for CBA and given slumping banking company share prices the current economic turmoil conditions would be a good time to pounce.

Even some of the smaller state banks like Adelaide Bank & Bendigo Bank [BEN.AX], merging themselves in August 2007, or the Bank of Queensland[BOQ.AX] would be possibilities for Ralph and CBA. These state banks have a strong presence in their home states but also have smaller niches in neighboring states.

Ralph is the sort of individual who doesn't like to be beaten. As an aggressive head of CBA's subsidiary in New Zealand, The ASB Banking Group, he helped turn that particular company from a strong regional Auckland based bank into the leading countrywide lender for mortgages today.

Whatever happens in the Australian banking sector though you can be sure that owning any of the smaller Australian banking stocks is going to be an exciting time for shareholders and it is only a matter of time before a few good ones are snapped up by Ralphy.

Australia is really a microcosm of what is happening world wide when it comes to banking stocks though. Right at this time in Thailand, where I am presently sunning myself, there is consolidation going on. In the US we have seen troubled banks gobbled up by competitors and Europe is having a good go at it too.

Ralph Norris will be on the hunt in OZ, he loves a bargain, so make sure as a shareholder you hold out for more come offer time!

The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition) (Collins Business Essentials) by Benjamin Graham Buy new: $13.25 / Used from: $9.24 Usually ships in 24 hours The Essays of Warren Buffett: Lessons for Corporate America, Fourth Edition by Warren E. Buffett Buy new: $30.40 / Used from: $169.48 Usually ships in 24 hours

c Share Investor 2008

Thai Express

Well, I wish the Thailand economy was as hot as the weather. I'm here in Bangkok on a business trip of sorts and while here naturally I would be checking out the action on the stockmarket and goings on economy wise.

There are rumblings of a coup here at the moment, where the "PAD" a people's democracy movement are trying to overthrow the nation's leader. This is naturally having an affect on the local stockmarket and their stock index has waivered in the last couple of days.

Looking around the country though any natural born capitalist, or one who has joined the movement recently, would be excited at the industrial nature of commerce and industry. The economy is of course highly controlled by a benevolent dictatorship(my own estimation) but that doesn't stop the nations people from trying to reach their obvious economic dream of having all the western accoutrement's.

If our tour guide is accurate in her figures, one of the main reasons for the locals and their fastidious work rate is the personal tax system. A range from 3% to a maximum of 30% is a definite incentive to get the country moving in a forward economic direction.

Our corrupt socialist Labour Party New Zealand leaders should take note. Our high tax rate is of course strangling our economy to death. Take my word, the Thai people are very poor as a whole today and the economy is struggling but give them 10 years or so and they will be richer than New Zealand. Far richer.

The constraints of red tape and planning procedures also don't hamper the forwards progress of the Thai economy. Factories belch lovely coloured smoke and their water is undrinkable. The 19th century industrial process is a little late in coming here. You have to let them have it though. It would be greedy and hypocritical of the Western World to hamper them with the Global Warming madness and other business constraints. Time and money will take care of the environment.

Leaving the hotel after this I will be confronted with a million people trying to take a Baht or 2 off me to help feed their families. It is in your face, exciting and entrepreneurial to the extreme. All that New Zealand business seems to lack at present, and has done for a long time.

Related Share Investor Reading

Notes from San Francisco

c Share Investor 2008

Why did you buy that Stock? [Pumpkin Patch]

Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL.NZ] was one of my long term growth investments because I saw its potential for future growth to be exceptional but still some time off.

Pumpkin Patch and sell trendy kids clothing in 4 different markets and currently have over 200 stores.


Why did you buy that stock?

Why did you buy that stock? [Ryman Healthcare]
Why did you buy that stock? [Michael Hill International]
Why did you buy that stock? [Mainfreight]
Why did you buy that stock? [The Warehouse]
Why did you buy that stock? [Goodman Fielder]
Why did you buy that stock? [Auckland Airport]
Why did you buy that stock? [Sky City Entertainment]


The brand recognition is very strong and customers are very loyal to that brand. This is one of the main reasons why I purchased shares in the company. That is, while many retailers of children's clothing sell nice clothes at reasonable prices Pumpkin Patch clothing sells at a premium because of its branding.

Pumpkin Patch designers have also enabled the brand to continually be reinforced by constantly releasing new clothing designs and therefore keeping that competitive edge in the markets they enter.

I wanted to purchase shares in the IPO a few years back but waited to see a few years of results before jumping in. Of course profit has slowed over the last 12 months or so, most retailers have suffered from a global slowdown but growth for the company over the last 4 years has been good and entry has been made into Britain and America since their listing.

The expansion management impressed me and those that run the company have been doing a fine job taking the company to the world. America has been a tough nut to crack so far but it seems the slow roll out of stores in Texas and California has been managed well if store level results are any indication.

So good management, as it should be always, is another overriding factor in my purchase decision. They do the selling of kids clothing better than any other retailer in the world that I have seen and this is where I see the growth.

One thing I haven't covered in much detail in any of this series before, with the exception of Mainfreight Ltd[MFT.NZ] I think, is company culture.

Like Mainfreight, company culture at Pumpkin Patch is brilliant, you can see it in the way you are treated when you walk into a store and that culture is bred from management down. If a business has a great company culture its employees are happier, and that leads to better sales and an increased bottom line-you cant go past that when looking at a reason to buy a company's shares.

Another small reason to purchase, my wife loves the clothing and we are trying for a baby and she can shop for Africa!

Now I have held Pumpkin for about 2 years and at an average purchase price of about NZ$3.70, so at a current market price of less than half that, it hasn't been good in the short term but I am a long term man so wouldn't be adverse to buying more should my dividend account have some money in it.

Disclosure I own PPL shares in the Share Investor Portfolio.


Pumpkin Patch @ Share Investor

Pumpkin Patch Ltd move downmarket
Long Term View: Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Pumpkin Patch's North American Downsizing a Prudent move
Digging at Pumpkin's Profit
Long vs Short: Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Buyback shows Confidence in the Future
Pumpkin Patch takes a hit
Pumpkin Patch ripe for the picking
What is Jan Cameron up to?
I'm buying
Why did you buy that Stock? [Pumpkin Patch]
Rod Duke's Pumpkin Patch gets bigger
Buyer of large piece of Pumpkin Patch a mystery
Pumpkin Patch a screaming buy
Broker downgrades of PPL lack long term vision
Pumpkin's expansion comes at a cost
Pumpkin Patch vs Burger Fuel
Pumpkin Patch profits flatten
New Zealand Retailers ring up costs not tills

Discuss PPL @ Share Investor Forum

Download PPL Company Reports

Buy Pumpkin Patch Clothing

From Fishpond.co.nz



Buy Bird on a Wire: The Inside Story from a Straight Talking CEO & more @ Fishpond.co.nz




c Share Investor 2008

PRIMETV PRESENTS: The Great Global Warming Swindle

Sunday, 1st June at 8.30pm

Watch TGGWS on the net here

Global warming is the biggest threat facing the world today, but not in the way you may think. The Great Global Warming Swindle blows the whistle on the biggest swindle in modern history. The theory of global warming has been postured as fact and as such does not need to be questioned but what if man’s CO2 emissions were not the cause of the problem? In fact there is overwhelming evidence, and has been for some time, showing that it’s solar activity that determines temperature.

Many solar scientists attest to the fact that during the late 20th century we experienced the highest levels of solar activity for centuries. Global Warming is the morality tale of the decade – politicians are eager to pander to middle class green prejudice, and are throwing vast quantities of public cash into scientific research aimed at supporting an unsupportable theory.

It’s a tale of scientists fearful of speaking out, of upsetting the funding applecart and jeopardising the many thousands of research jobs generated for them by the global warming scare.

WARNING: Content May Offend


**NB: there is a one hour discussion of The Great Global Warming with skeptics and loony believers alike. Leighton Smith, talkback host on Newstalk ZB is one of the skeptics !

There have been attempts from some devotees of Global Warming to appeal to the Broadcasting Standards Assc to have the programme removed so nobody can watch it. This is typical of the GW zealots who dont want others to see the the other, more believable side to the GW "debate".


Related Political Animal reading

Unstoppable global warming
Global Warning: Tax Iceberg Ahead
Kyoto critic comes to town - Sunday Star Times
Carbon Credit trading puts Global markets at extreme risk
Of Tulip Bulbs and Tooth Fairies
Ponder the Maunder - 15 Yr old Kristin Byrne explodes the GW myth

c Political Animal 2008