NZ HERALD: Latest political poll and Political Animal commentary

As election day draws near the gap in polling between the National and Labour party stays constant.

Budget bribes, small as they were, clearly didn't work and Labour will have to make them bigger and more plentiful as we near polling day.

They have already started by bribing 44 thousand public "servants" with another weeks leave.

Bet your bottom taxpayer earned dollar though, Labour are going to raid the taxpayer purse to try to get back into power. They did it back in 1989, when they admitted a pre-election $89 million surplus but after their election bribes and when the books were uncovered post election we were over 1 billion in debt!

Is anyone listening though?

New Zealand Herald Poll story

Budget fails to do the trick for the Government

5:00AM Friday May 30, 2008
By Audrey Young

Helen Clark ranks below John Key as preferred prime minister, according to the poll. Photo / Getty Images

Labour's tax-cutting Budget has had no immediate impact on its poll rating in today's Herald-DigiPoll survey, the first major poll that includes a large post-Budget sample.

The economy has moved into top spot as the issue most likely to influence voters in this year's election, just nudging out tax cuts, which is the second most important issue.

Labour has moved down one point to 36.2 per cent but National has also moved down fractionally, by 0.6 to 51.5.

The gap between the two main parties has barely budged from last month's poll: 15.3 points, compared with 14.9 last month. National would still be able to govern alone.

National leader John Key continues to poll just ahead of Helen Clark as preferred prime minister, 44.6 per cent to 42.3 per cent.

If anyone received a lift from the Budget, it was New Zealand First leader Winston Peters, who claimed significant gains for the elderly.

His personal ratings as preferred prime minister more than doubled to 6.7 per cent.
But that boost has not been replicated in support for his party (1.9 per cent, up 0.4 points)

On those figures, unless Mr Peters won Tauranga or another electorate, NZ First would not make it back into Parliament.

The poll of decided voters was taken over three weeks in May. Two-thirds of respondents were polled before the Budget and almost one-third (418 people) after it. The margin of error on the post-Budget sample is bigger than the pre-Budget sample.

The support levels for the parties changed slightly in the samples taken before and after the Budget. Labour was on 36.5 per cent before the Budget, and 35.3 per cent after it.

National was on 51.7 per cent before the Budget and 51.2 after it.

On the basis of this poll the Greens would comfortably get over the 5 per cent threshold and return to Parliament with eight MPs, two more than now.

The poll's pre- and post-Budget movements were more pronounced for Helen Clark and Winston Peters in the choice of preferred prime minister.

Helen Clark dropped 3.6 points and Winston Peters jumped 4.3 points in the post-Budget sample.

Overall, compared to last month's poll, Mr Peters is up 3.5 points, Mr Key is down 3.4 and Helen Clark is down 3.

Economic news dominated the headlines in May with the price of petrol passing $2 a litre and a lot of coverage on interest rates and stress on household budgets.

The Government announced a delay in including liquid fuels in the emissions trading scheme,which National announced it would not support.

The head of the Immigration Service, Mary Anne Thompson, resigned in disgrace. And Finance Minister Michael Cullen set out plans for $10.6 billion in tax cuts over three years.

Translated to seats in the House, National would get 63 and could govern alone.

When respondents were asked which issue was most likely to influence their vote at the election, 26.7 per cent said the economy, 22.5 per cent said tax cuts and 11.7 per cent said hospital waiting lists.

Mr Key said last night that the economic issues the country was facing were weighing directly on the polls. "On the back of that, the Budget doesn't appear to be having any major impact because the dominant factor is the economic malaise that is washing over the country."

Helen Clark could not be contacted.

* The poll of 1279 respondents was taken between May 5 and May 28 and the margin of error on the total sample is 2.7 per cent. The margin of error on the 418 polled after the Budget is 4.6 per cent. The percentage of undecided respondents was 13.8 per cent.

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c Political Animal 2008

Peter Marshall deserves longer sentence

The sentencing of Peter Marshall, former head of the failed online broker, Access Brokerage, to 3 years jail today surprised me.

I was expecting a far lesser sentence and perhaps even home detention for a fraud Marshall perpetrated on small shareholder/customers, when he was CEO of the brokerage and it collapsed owing millions at the end of 2004.

Marshall's plea for leniency because of "poor health" showed all the hallmarks of fraud cases heard in the US several years ago over accounting fraud and dubious businesses practices but Judge Bruce Davidson wasn't having a bar of it.

Marshall really didn't deserve the courts leniency anyway as he pleaded not guilty and his defence argued his innocence all the way:


The Crown maintained the offending was significant and "took issue" with any suggestion of real remorse, as Marshall maintained he had done nothing wrong. Stuff.co.nz


While I was expecting a lesser sentence, I personally don't think 3 years is long enough. Marshall's lack of remorse clearly shows he hasn't learnt anything from his experience and for this reason alone the sentence should have started at 5 years.

We don't have to look much further than collapsing finance companies, and their advisors and Money Managers advocating their clients to invest in dodgy companies to see that financial markets in New Zealand are still largely the domain of the wild west.

We need a few more sheriffs (and judges) in this town to send the message, and make an example of those who would wish to part you with your hard earned moola in nefarious ways.


Related Share Investor reading

Blue Chip's Mark Bryers at top of shaky pyramid
Money Managers Saga-3 story wrap
Money Manager's First Step gives investors the middle finger

c Share Investor 2008

Be an active investor

Reading the news today about 94 New Zealand Housing Corporation employees ensconced at a luxury resort in Tongariro at taxpayer expense, got me thinking about accountability of management amongst our listed companies and shareholder involvement or lack thereof in the businesses that they have invested in.

Even before investing in a listed company, you would do well, as part of your research to get in touch with the management of the company and have a chat. You maybe surprised who you might get hold of and you could even find yourself talking to the CEO, or the company secretary at the very least. They can only say no. I myself have talked to several leaders of the companies I own a part of and you can glean quite alot from a quick chat.

Of course if you do business or become a paying customer at one of the businesses you have a shareholding in, it doesn't hurt to give your feedback, positive of negative, about your experience. How the employee/manager at the end of the phone or across the desk deals with your feedback can say alot about the company you are invested in.

Shareholders should at the very least tick all the boxes in the forms that they get in the post come annual general meeting time. The form that you get will allow you to vote on remuneration, cast your ballot for directors and vote on any extraordinary decision the board may put to shareholders in a particular year, amongst other things.

These kinds of votes become even more important when your company has a takeover or merger offer made. Don't ignore these requests for your input. They are important, even though you might think you have only one vote, you do have ownership of a part of the company-exercise that ownership.

Go to annual meetings. You don't have to be a Bruce Sheppard, the head of the NZ Share Holders Association, but listening to the other shareholders ask questions, the ability for you to give your point of view on company direction is going to be a benefit to your decision to hold or fold.

Sadly in the 10 years I have held shares I have never been to a meeting, they are always on in the middle of the day when I am busy but that dear readers is another column.

New Zealanders are a passive bunch at the best of times. Foreign shareholders are far more involved and tend to have more say in the company's' that they own.

Remember, it is your money invested and you do have a say in your part share of the listed company that you own. It doesn't have to be a completely hands off experience and getting involved makes that investment a more exciting prospect that a certificate in the top drawer or an electronic company code on your computer screen.


Related Share Investor reading

Research,research,research
Stick to what you know
Investors can learn from my stupidity

From Amazon



The Development of Equity Capital Markets in Transition Economies: Privatization and Shareholders Rights (Contributions to Economics) by Dirk Willer


c Share Investor 2008

The Vietnam apology that rings hollow

When NZ withdrew its troops the trauma for many of us was just beginning. We were brought back on a civilian aircraft in civilian clothes and were told to get off the aircraft and go away. The official word from the army was not to tell anyone you'd been in Vietnam. We were aliens in our own country. A march down Queen Street in Auckland turned into a riot. We were pelted with rotten fruit and vegetables. People were screaming out 'baby killers!' That wasn't much good for the psychological state of the soldiers who had just returned from a war zone. Some returned soldiers suffered physical and psychological injuries. I would think the problems (for vets) have been created out of neglect. Neglect on the part of the government, neglect on the part of society and to some extent neglect on the part of the army."

Rick Thame Victor Five Coy


Helen Clark, Phil Goff and a large number of other Labour Party members are going to "apologise" on behalf of the New Zealand Government this Thursday 29 2008 over Vietnam Veteran's appalling treatment by the government of the time and subsequent administrations. There was no government assistance for soldiers as there was in other wars, no welcome home, no acknowledgment of the bravery shown in battle against the Vietcong and they were told to shut their mouths and not talk about their horror again.

Many Vets committed suicide, became hospitalized with mental problems and have a myriad of health problems. Some of these things also happened to subsequent generations of family members.

They will never forget what happened, during the war and after.

I just have one question.

Will Helen Clark, Phil Goff and her Labour colleagues personally apologise for spitting in the soldiers faces during the Queen Street riots?

It must be election year.

c Political Animal 2008