Why did you buy that stock? [Ryman Healthcare]

With Ryman Healthcare [RYM.NZ] announcing its annual results for the year ending 31 March 2008 to the market on Thursday 22 May 2008, I thought I would elaborate on some of the reasons why I bought the stock in this latest of a series of columns.

Ryman, the operator of approx 3000 retirement units, up from 900 eight years ago, increased profit by approx 20% in November 2007 and has future plans to grow at a similar rate in the medium term.









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The historical aspect of company performance initially attracted me and once again that has got to be down to good management. The company has managed to grow in spectacular fashion without asking shareholders for additional funds and has positioned itself well for the future.

Now there are quite a few different companies that will give you exposure to the New Zealand listed property market and one other listed retirement village operator, Metlifecare [MET.NZ] but I chose Ryman over Metlife because of the size of its current land bank for future use, approx enough for 2000 units.

Although currently the real estate market and property values are suffering from a downturn and that should be reflected in the announcement on Thursday(although having said that shares were up by more than 4% on good volume today possibly indicating something good on Thursday) , the other reason I like Ryman is that its revenue streams are multiple and set to grow dramatically as we all grow older and wish to stay in the more independent villages that the likes of Ryman and Metlife offer.

The first revenue stream is income derived from developing and selling the units, continuing revenue to take care of residents and property and another cut when the unit is on-sold.

This provides a good cashflow for the company to function well and during the tougher times, this makes it easier for the company to sustain their business model.

Another easy to understand business, this encouraged me to buy and its ability to differentiate itself from other single property residences in the form of a strong brand of villages countrywide help keep the competition at bay.

I have held the company for around 3 years and it has cost me approx $1.75 per share. I would purchase more at lower than cost levels, given the ability of my wallet to allow it.




Ryman Healthcare @ Share Investor

Share Price Alert: Ryman Healthcare Ltd 2
Ryman Healthcare Ltd: 2011 Half Year Profit Review
Gordon Macleod on Ryman Healthcare's Australian Expansion
Share Investor Q & A: Ryman Healthcare's CFO Gordon MacLeod
Ryman Healthcare: Interview sneak peak
Ryman Healthcare Ltd: Australian Expansion Needs Care
Share Investor Q & A: Reader Questions to Ryman CFO Gordon Macleod
Long Term View: Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Stock of the Week: Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Why did you buy that stock? [Ryman Healthcare]
Long VS Short: Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Time for retirement?


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c Share Investor 2008

Restaurant Brand's gives KFC a push

It will seem strange to regular readers of this blog for me to be praising Restaurant Brand's [RBD] management but after some reasonable on site research of one of the company's brands, KFC, I do believe they might have got one aspect of the company almost right.

Restaurant Brands is the franchisee operator of KFC, Pizza Hut and Starbucks and has had a very chequered operating past since listing in 1997. Sales have been declining, levels of service poor and menu and food quality dubious at the best of times. Profit and revenue have also consistently fallen in the last decade as a result of the poor management.

There has been a 2 year focus on KFC to resurrect the company's only profit maker. Millions have been spent to remodel the 89 store chain with new menu items to give the image of KFC and the Colonel's old deep fried chicken a healthier look and judging by my own survey of a couple of Auckland's North Shore stores, Takapuna and Browns Bay, the extensive rejig of the menu seems to be keeping declining customer numbers at an even keel.

The choice of salads, burger meals, various new types of snack foods and smaller chicken pieces from the old KFC menu make for more choices for customers but management risk diversifying too much and alienating their core customer (thats me folks) who still comes for the fried chicken, if they go further.

Stick to what you know guys and don't try to reinvent too much. McDonalds have just successfully redefined their menu in a healthier way, while adding a large chicken menu to their roster and too many similarities between the 2 chains chicken products should be avoided at all costs. KFC's main point of difference, and it has been that way for nearly 40 years in New Zealand, is their 11 herbs and spices recipe. Don't kill the very chicken that lays the golden stuff !

Related Share Investor reading

McDonalds playing chicken with KFC
Restaurant Brand's Pizza Hut faces increasing competition
RBD sales analysis
RBD saga continues: CEO leaves
The secret recipe is out
2007 FY profit analysis
Delivering increased profit in October 2007
No reason for optimism in latest sales figures

Russel Creedy, who was appointed as CEO in September 2007, has made some good moves since his appointment and the continued development of KFC from previous management head Vicki Salmon has stemmed the previous hemorrhaging of the KFC unit.

What Creedy must do now though is consolidate his relative success at KFC and sell the loss making Pizza Hut New Zealand while there is someone willing to buy it.

Starbucks, while still growing revenue, mostly from inflation, is nonetheless still losing money overall and a sale back to the franchisor would be the best for all participants.

RBD management don't have the depth of expertise to manage 3 brands to the maximum benefit of their shareholders, and as proven ever so slightly so far, their concentration of efforts seems to be paying off at KFC.

Related links

RBD New Zealand
KFC NZ
Yum ! RBD's franchisor

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Share Investor Stockmarket forum -Discuss this topic further

c Share Investor 2008

STUFF: Fairfax poll & Political Animal commentary

The latest fairfax political poll continues the trend from last year where National started to show a wide gap. This gap has not only continued but has got wider as time goes on.

It is clear to voters, Labour or National, that voters want their money back, in the form of personal tax cuts. Not State sanctioned welfare like working for families or one off dollops from those that earn the money to those that haven't. They simply want their own cash back in the hand on a weekly basis, without state apron strings involved or mixed up in loony taxpayer subsidised "savings" schemes like Kiwi saver.

The billion dollar plus price tag for a train set and not dividends in their pockets, seems to be yet another motivator for long suffering middleclass taxpayers to get on track to get back what they deserve.

Their own moola!


Political Animal Reading


Michael Cullen speaks with forked tongue
Pointing fingers in the playground
At least Robin Hood was honest
The black economy makes sense
Labour's State Control out of control




Stuff poll and commentary

National is on track for a landslide election win with a 27-point poll lead over Labour.

On today's Fairfax Media poll, Labour faces an election night rout that would oust 14 sitting MPs and deliver National a 13-seat majority.

Finance Minister Michael Cullen is now under huge pressure to deliver an election-winning Budget next week or face the backlash from voters seeking relief from rising pressure on household budgets.

But on today's result, voters have already written Labour off and it may take more than the modest tax cuts signaled by Dr Cullen to turn that around.

The Nielsen poll for Fairfax newspapers suggests that not just the size but the timing of any tax cuts could be critical, with voters saying they want relief now, even if that puts pressure on interest rates.

Just over half of those questioned - 51 per cent - don't want to wait for tax cuts, even if that means interest and mortgage rates stay higher for longer.

It suggests that Dr Cullen's argument that early and sizeable tax cuts will only push up interest rates and delay relief for heavily mortgaged households does not wash with voters.

Kiwibank cut its two-year fixed-term home loan rate to 8.99 per cent yesterday and other banks are expected to follow in anticipation of a cut in interest rates by the Reserve Bank.

Today's poll will send panic through Labour ranks. National's lead is a turnaround from polls which had Labour closing the gap - the previous Fairfax poll had National and Labour 18 points apart.

National Party leader John Key said yesterday that voters were sick of Labour.

"They're tired of the fact that they're so out of touch with issues that concern them in their daily life."

National would fight the election on tax cuts, which would be a defining difference between the two parties.

"All the messages that Labour has given off in the last two months is that tax cuts will be relatively small."

Prime Minister Helen Clark, who is in South Korea, could not be contacted for comment.

The poll put the Greens on 6 per cent - safely above the 5 per cent threshold, where they were joined by NZ First on 5 per cent.

That could put NZ First leader Winston Peters back at centre-stage in any post-election deals, though on current numbers National could easily govern alone.

The poll questioned 1091 voters between Wednesday May 7 and Tuesday this week and has a margin of error of 3 per cent.


Discuss Politics
New Zealand Budget






c Political Animal 2008

Something in the State of New Zealand is rotten

Just when you thought things couldn't get worse for the New Zealand Labour Party, along comes the scandal to beat all scandals, one of Helen Clark's ex employees, Maryanne Thompson, is tarred with the corruption brush and Ministers knowing this chose not to disclose and are now not talking to the media.

Lets go back a bit though.

In the last few weeks we have had a major u turn on the nonsense "climate change" policy, Michael Cullen's failed 9 year fiscal policy continuing to have a dire economic fallout, Phillip Field's corruption trial finally given the go ahead after a prior 2005 election cover up by the Labour Party, the massive hypocrisy of Auckland Airport being bared from a sale but Vector assets sold to our new friends in China, revelations that Alexandra school children were being taught in shipping containers, Michael Cullen caught out lying about the cost of "kiwi rail", the worst economic figures in generations; 29000 less people working and fatal retail sales and a list as long as your arm of ministerial gaffs and malfeasant behavior.

The latest scandal is fraught with much speculation but this is clear. Ministers from the Labour cabinet are involved and knew what was going on with Maryanne Thompson.

Thompson fudged her credentials, gave relatives quick shift through our immigration department to illegally obtain New Zealand residence and favoured friends and family in rewarding large contracts, as the taxpayer money slipped through her fingers like so much confetti .

Trevor Mallard was the Minister responsible at the time and there are rumours that he was aware of the shady business of Thompson and her co-workers. He was aware of Phillip Field and his pre 2005 Election corruption and kept it mum, so why would this case be any different.

Labour voters really cant have alot of confidence in their political masters, the Labour Party.

Their modus operandi is secretive and corrupt. A party that has had secret donations made from Owen Glen, a wealthy billionaire, has stolen taxpayer money to buy the 2005 election, has done their best to stop opposition to the 2008 election by passing the fascist Electoral Finance Act and has had their leader, Helen Clark been caught out lying several times and simply cannot be trusted.

The latest polls reflect that Labour is set for one of the biggest losses in their party history but is only going to be tempered by the large amount of working New Zealander's taxes that are going to be handed out to buy the votes of those too selfish to think of others or simply ignorant of the real state of the nation and how much Helen Clark and her merry bunch of socialist misfits have contributed to it.

We the voter shouldn't forget the Watergate scandal from the 1970s, that brought down the Nixon Government. It was predicated by a break in and a cover up of that break in. Much worse has happened during the 9 years of labour.

Where are our Woodward and Bernstein when we need them?

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New Zealand Budget

c Political Animal 2008