Showing posts with label February 2010 reporting season. Show all posts
Showing posts with label February 2010 reporting season. Show all posts

Monday, March 1, 2010

Reporting season wrings out the Profits

With the notable exception of a couple of NZX listed companies the current reporting season has been a case of squeeze until your business expenses fill your cup.

Apart from the fact that it is a good idea to keep running costs low during an economic downturn (it would be nice to do the same during the good times as well) cost cutting can improve efficiency and show up where the company might have been holding some fat around its hips.

Profits have mostly been flat to slightly down, with some good rises over the last half year; Sky City Entertainment Group[SKC.NZ] Michael Hill International [MHI.NZ] and Sky Network Television [SKT.NZ] are some recent examples of excellent profit rises.

A large number of companies though have reported reasonable profits on flat to down revenue and a number of capital raisings in 2009 have been responsible for lower interests costs on borrowings that went straight to the bottomline.

How long can companies wring these sorts of results out of cost savings?

I think the bulk of savings have already been made for most but expect more companies selling and leasing back offices if they haven't already, consolidating branches and staff and continuing to put off capital expenditure.

The problem with this is that if cost savings go too far, in the long term it can affect the future of the company in question.

Telecom NZ [TEL.NZ] is a prime example of underinvestment in its business and over a long period this had led to its current demise.

Companies need to find a balance between expense savings and capital expenditure in order to progress further when the economy rebounds - whenever that will be is anyone's guess.

There is little doubt though that most of the savings have already been made (with the notable exception of executive pay and directors fees) and the next reporting season that kicks off in August will show that profits will be down due to the lack of fat to be cut.

Relying on more costs cuts for profit boosting will disappoint, as will increased revenue levels except in a number of rare cases.


Recent Share Investor Reading

Discuss this topic at Share Investor Forum - Register free

Recommended Amazon Reading

The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition)
The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition) by Benjamin Graham
Buy new: $14.95 / Used from: $7.50
Usually ships in 24 hours

Buy The Intelligent Investor & more @ Fishpond.co.nz

Fishpond


c Share Investor 2010

Monday, January 11, 2010

Feb reporting season will indicate any economic "recovery"

Figures don't lie - that is of course unless you cant read the creative accounting of Kiwi accountants who like to hide stuff in meaningless drivel and then they do - so when we see the net profits of our listed companies start coming out from late Feb 2010 we are going to know for sure if there has been any "recovery" from the recession of the last 2 years.

The last 2 years have seen mixed fortunes from our listed companies, with most doing OK, some very well and some have had their worst yet years.

For shareholders, Feb 2010 will be good indication of how well, if at all, their chosen investment has done over the last 6 months but indeed how it will perform in the seemingly better economic environment - although I have my doubts as to if things are better - and how well management have steered their way through the recession and what plans they may have to manage themselves out of any business funk they might find themselves or got themselves and their shareholders into.

In the Share Investor Portfolio, which was up by about 20% in 2009, after getting a good arse kicking at the end of 2008, I expect (but don't promise) the following:

  • Auckland International Airport [AIA] - Steady as she goes with little surprise.
  • ASB Capital NO. 2 Ltd [ASBPB] - Largely immaterial, a dividend stock and nothing else.
  • Briscoe Group Ltd [BGR] - Indication of a return to growth with better Xmas trading.
  • Fletcher Building Ltd [FBU] - Writedowns on Formica purchase, better outlook.
  • Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corp Ltd [FPH] - A good boost to US dollar profit but flat or down in kiwi dollar terms due to the weak US dollar.

  • Freightways Ltd [FRE] - A good barometer of the economy as a whole, epect a small rise in profit.
  • Goodman Fielder Ltd [GFF] - stable revenue but flat profits due to higher costs.
  • Halleinstein Glasson Ltd [HLG] - expect a rise in profit after good xmas sales.
  • Kiwi Income Property Trust [KIP] - profit slightly down.
  • Mainfreight Ltd [MFT] - signs of growth in NZ and Australia but standing still in other markets.
  • Michael Hill International Ltd [MHI] - A good rise in revenue but flat profit due to lower margins.
  • Postie Plus Ltd [PPG] - higher profit due to cost cutting.
  • Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL] - Australia doing much better, NZ better than previous 6 months.
  • Ryman Healthcare Ltd [RYM] A steady rise in profit of more than 10%.
  • Sky City Entertainment [SKC] A good rise in revenue and profit due to lower costs, better marketing and a focus on debt payback.
  • Steel & Tube Holdings Ltd [STU] Not sure!
  • The Warehouse Group Ltd [WHS] Flat profit depending on margins made during flat Xmas shopping season.

Related Share Investor Reading: Why did you buy that stock?

Why did you buy that stock? [Fletcher Building Ltd]
Why did you buy that stock? [Freightways Ltd]
Why did you buy that stock? [Kiwi Income Property Trust]
Why did you buy that stock? [Hallenstein Glasson]
Why did you buy that stock? [Briscoe Group]
Why did you buy that stock? [Fisher & Paykel Healthcare]
Why did you buy that stock? [Pumpkin Patch Ltd]
Why did you buy that stock? [Ryman Healthcare]
Why did you buy that stock? [Michael Hill International]
Why did you buy that stock? [Mainfreight Ltd]
Why did you buy that stock? [The Warehouse Group]
Why did you buy that stock? [Goodman Fielder]
Why did you buy that stock? [Auckland Airport]
Why did you buy that stock? [Sky City Entertainment]


Discuss this topic @ Share Investor Forum - Register free


Related Amazon Reading

The Warren <span class=
The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy by Robert G. Hagstrom
Buy new: $13.57 / Used from: $1.57
Usually ships in 24 hours

Fishpond


c Share Investor 2002-2010