Monday, January 11, 2010

Feb reporting season will indicate any economic "recovery"

Figures don't lie - that is of course unless you cant read the creative accounting of Kiwi accountants who like to hide stuff in meaningless drivel and then they do - so when we see the net profits of our listed companies start coming out from late Feb 2010 we are going to know for sure if there has been any "recovery" from the recession of the last 2 years.

The last 2 years have seen mixed fortunes from our listed companies, with most doing OK, some very well and some have had their worst yet years.

For shareholders, Feb 2010 will be good indication of how well, if at all, their chosen investment has done over the last 6 months but indeed how it will perform in the seemingly better economic environment - although I have my doubts as to if things are better - and how well management have steered their way through the recession and what plans they may have to manage themselves out of any business funk they might find themselves or got themselves and their shareholders into.

In the Share Investor Portfolio, which was up by about 20% in 2009, after getting a good arse kicking at the end of 2008, I expect (but don't promise) the following:

  • Auckland International Airport [AIA] - Steady as she goes with little surprise.
  • ASB Capital NO. 2 Ltd [ASBPB] - Largely immaterial, a dividend stock and nothing else.
  • Briscoe Group Ltd [BGR] - Indication of a return to growth with better Xmas trading.
  • Fletcher Building Ltd [FBU] - Writedowns on Formica purchase, better outlook.
  • Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corp Ltd [FPH] - A good boost to US dollar profit but flat or down in kiwi dollar terms due to the weak US dollar.

  • Freightways Ltd [FRE] - A good barometer of the economy as a whole, epect a small rise in profit.
  • Goodman Fielder Ltd [GFF] - stable revenue but flat profits due to higher costs.
  • Halleinstein Glasson Ltd [HLG] - expect a rise in profit after good xmas sales.
  • Kiwi Income Property Trust [KIP] - profit slightly down.
  • Mainfreight Ltd [MFT] - signs of growth in NZ and Australia but standing still in other markets.
  • Michael Hill International Ltd [MHI] - A good rise in revenue but flat profit due to lower margins.
  • Postie Plus Ltd [PPG] - higher profit due to cost cutting.
  • Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL] - Australia doing much better, NZ better than previous 6 months.
  • Ryman Healthcare Ltd [RYM] A steady rise in profit of more than 10%.
  • Sky City Entertainment [SKC] A good rise in revenue and profit due to lower costs, better marketing and a focus on debt payback.
  • Steel & Tube Holdings Ltd [STU] Not sure!
  • The Warehouse Group Ltd [WHS] Flat profit depending on margins made during flat Xmas shopping season.

Related Share Investor Reading: Why did you buy that stock?

Why did you buy that stock? [Fletcher Building Ltd]
Why did you buy that stock? [Freightways Ltd]
Why did you buy that stock? [Kiwi Income Property Trust]
Why did you buy that stock? [Hallenstein Glasson]
Why did you buy that stock? [Briscoe Group]
Why did you buy that stock? [Fisher & Paykel Healthcare]
Why did you buy that stock? [Pumpkin Patch Ltd]
Why did you buy that stock? [Ryman Healthcare]
Why did you buy that stock? [Michael Hill International]
Why did you buy that stock? [Mainfreight Ltd]
Why did you buy that stock? [The Warehouse Group]
Why did you buy that stock? [Goodman Fielder]
Why did you buy that stock? [Auckland Airport]
Why did you buy that stock? [Sky City Entertainment]

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Related Amazon Reading

The Warren <span class=
The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy by Robert G. Hagstrom
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