Share Investor: PRC

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Monday, April 11, 2011

Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks: Looking Back

It has been nearly 4 months since the Share Investor 2011 Stock Picks and I thought it might be appropriate now to look back at how those picks have done. Please keep in mind that my criteria for picking stocks is long term gains and also that the stockmarket as a whole has risen in the 4 months (see 6 month chart below) that has passed so any gains must factor in these two key points.

I am discovering any gains and losses from my picks as I write this post rather than looking at them first and then making a decision to publish, so you, dear readers, will discover how well or badly I did as I did.

I will outline below what price the stock was picked at and how much it has gained or lost since the stock picks came out on December 17 2010.

Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks: Looking back

Picks from the NZX

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
[FPH.NZX]

Picked at $3.06c on December 17 2011 and reaching a post pick high of $3.23, at close of trade Friday 8 April was trading at $3.06c.

0% gain.

Xero Ltd
[XRO.NZX]

Picked at $2.38c on December 17 2011 and reaching a post pick high of $3.16, at close of trade Friday 8 April was trading at $2.50c.

A 5% gain.

Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd
[SKC.NZX]

Picked at $3.23c on December 17 2011, with the addition of a 8c net dividend, and reaching a post pick high of $3.50, at close of trade Friday 8 April was trading at $3.41c.

A 8% gain.

Charlies Group Ltd
[CHA.NZX]

Picked at 17.5c on December 17 2011 and reaching a post pick high of 28c, at close of trade Friday 8 April was trading at 27c.

A 54% gain.

Michael Hill International Ltd
[MHI.NZX]

Picked at 85c on December 17 2011, with the addition of a 1.5c net dividend and reaching a post pick high of 92c, at close of trade Friday 8 April was trading at 88c.

A 5% gain.

New Zealand Refining Ltd
[NZR.NZX]

Picked at $4.20c on December 17 2011, with the addition of a 10c net dividend and reaching a post pick high of $5.20c, at close of trade Friday 8 April was trading at $4.75c.

A 20% gain.

New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd
[NZO.NZX]

Picked at 86c on December 17 2011, reaching a post pick high of 94c, at close of trade Friday 8 April was trading at 94c.

A 10% gain.

Minor NZX Picks

Kathmandu Holdings Ltd [KMD.NZX]

A 42% gain.

Port of Tauranga Ltd [POT.NZ]

A 14% gain

Auckland International Airport Ltd [AIA.NZX]

A 6% gain.

Telecom NZ Ltd [TEL.NZX]

A 6% loss.

Fisher & Paykel Appliances Ltd [FPA.NZX]

A 15% gain.

ASX Picks

Tatts Group Ltd [TTS.ASX] A 10% loss.
Tabcorp Holdings Ltd [TAH.ASX] A 3% gain.
Reef Casino Trust[RCT.ASX] A 5% loss.

Nasdaq

Yum ! Brands Inc [YUM.NASDAQ] A 0% gain.

Conclusion & Outlook for 2011

Returns ranged from a 10% loss for Tatts Group Ltd [TTS.ASX] up to a 54% gain for Charlies Group Ltd [CHA.NZX]. Averaged out my 2011 share picks have returned an average net return of 10.33% over slightly less than 4 months if I included them in equal portions in a portfolio. This compares to a return of 4% for the NZX5 0 as a whole. (see NZX50 chart at top of post)

The market overall appears to be overvalued to me - with the exception of one or two stocks that have lost some value - and I have not bought any shares for well over a year now. My own portfolio has gained 13% since I began re-tracking it for this blog back in October 2010 and I cant see the market gaining much more for 2011 due to very poor global economic conditions and uncertainty as to where the globe is heading in the short to medium term.

Disclosure : I own FPH, WHS, SKC, MHI, AIA, shares in the Share Investor Portfolio.

Share Investor's Annual Stock Picks

Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2010 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2009 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2008 stock picks

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Brokers 2011 Stock Picks

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c Share Investor 2010 & 2011

Monday, January 3, 2011

Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks

Originally posted 17 Dec 2010

Share Investor's 2012 Stock Picks

It is that time of the year, to pick stocks for 2011 and time for my stock picking monkey to come out of a self imposed 12 months hiatus for another stab at the stockmarket pages.

It is the 4th edition this year and once again impacted by looking after my 16 month old girl - she had no direct say in what the stock picking monkey chose for 2011 but will be encouraged to throw a dart or two at the end of 2011.

In the face of a continued global recession, an uncertain economic future that had a big impact at the end of 2009 and continues today 2011 might be be harder to pick than 2010.

2010 was a much better year for stocks than 2009, with stock prices overall coming well off 2009 lows.

Please keep in mind dear readers that the picks are my own and they reflect my investment philosophy and not necessarily anyone else's.

My picks are based on a long-term view, regardless of the current short to medium term market turmoil and economic uncertainty.

NB: Since I think most of my portfolio consist of the best stocks on the New Zealand market, I found it difficult to pick stocks outside my realm of self interest.

Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks

Picks from the NZX

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
[FPH.NZX]

I will kick off my picks with a company that I still consider will be one of the big successes of the next 5-10 years and one I included in the 2008, 2009 & 2010 Share Investor stock picks, Fisher and Paykel Healthcare, the health care products provider.

I had it as a pick for 2010 and it is down around 20c from this time in 2010, so that makes it a better pick than last year considering its good long term prospects.

Company forecasts for the 2011 year are understandably sketchy because of the US dollar volatility but US revenues are set to grow significantly, as they have done for the past decade.

Any significant movement in the value of the NZ dollar means a substantial rise or fall in profit, as the bulk of company revenues are in the US dollar and 2011 half year profit results have been impacted significantly from the weakening US dollar.

Fisher's profits are largely immune from the current market turmoil as buyers simply have to have the products that the health care company makes regardless of a global recession.

A future global player in the sector they operate in.

Fisher & Paykel Heathcare @ Share Investor

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Discuss FPH @ Share Investor Forum
Download FPH Company Reports

Disc I own FPH shares in the Share Investor Portfolio

Xero Ltd
[XRO.NZX]

Currently Xero Ltd, the online accounting software company, is a niche player in an industry dominated by global players like Quicken and MYOB and it increased its customer base significantly in 2010 and looks set to build on 2010's gains.

It is presently building its customer base to get "critical mass".

The buzz in the tech industry surrounding Xero is reflected in the amount of support the company has from insiders and it could be well a big player in time to come. The company has had some significant financial backers from those who know Xero well but Mums and Dads are still largely absent from the shareholder register.

It has yet to make any money but is expected to break even in the latter half of 2011 and should start to see some profit in the next few years.

XRO is a little riskier than most investments and the share price has increased well over the latter part of 2010 so that risk increases slightly.

If the hype is only partially matched by concrete results this share will take off.

Xero @ Share Investor

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Discuss Xero @ Share Investor Forum
Download Xero Company Reports

Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd
[SKC.NZX]

Not a stock I expected to pick after being a big critic of it over the last few years. Charlies Group Ltd has managed to wangle its way into my affections for 2011. It did this simply by finally showing a profit for the full year to June 2010. Previously to this it had been mired in mounting losses and a number of capital raisings but their strategy of growing the business over the last 3-4 years has paid off. They recently expanded in a vast push across OZ into over 750 Coles Supermarkets and this gives them the leverage there to increase sales manifold times over 2010 levels.

The share price, at 17.5c, is almost 3x more than it was at its lowest level in 2010 but prospects for the company look good due to Australia.

Buy on thinly traded weakness.

Charlies Group @ Share Investor

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Discuss CHA @ Share Investor Forum
Download CHA Company Reports

Michael Hill International Ltd
[MHI.NZX]

Michael Hill International has had a tough last couple of years but the most recent result has been pleasing to say the least.

It has largely put the cost of its expansion in North America behind it by closing a number of stores and consolidating in Chicago and seeing how things go there before further mainland USA expansion.

It has done reasonably well in its main markets in Australasia but Canada remains weak.

The share price has gained more than 30% since I picked it in the 2010 Share Investor Stock Picks but MHI still remains a good long term investment with good growth potential and business fundamentals.

Disc I own MHI shares in the Share Investor Portfolio

Michael Hill International @ Share Investor

New Zealand Refining Ltd
[NZR.NZX]

With low refining rates, massive capital expenditure and plant shutdowns largely behind them and a rising global oil prices, 2011 looks to be a resurgent year for New Zealand Refining Ltd.

Those higher oil prices will see this stock rise and it has already and the oil price rise has been a significant one. It has been mainly due to a very cold Northern Winter bumping up all sorts of petrochemical products so it is unclear just how sustainable the oil price rise will be. Having said that the recent rise is bound to gain some traction even when the Northern ice melts away and 2011 rolls along.

Look for an increased dividend in 2011 as profit increases that will underpin a good share price rise from current levels.

NZR @ Share Investor

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New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd
[NZO.NZX]

Apart from its 29% holding in the now insolvent Pike River Coal Ltd [PRC.NZX] and the financial fallout from that, NZ Oil & Gas Ltd has had a reasonable year considering the overall lowish global oil prices for 2010.

The Pike River Coal Mine disaster has provided an opportunity for investors to get this stock relatively cheap considering it has a reasonable volume of oil and gas left to pull out of the ground and several drilling prospects on the boil.

The fact that global oil prices per barrel are rising and should pass US$100 will give Oil & Gas the impetus to get more out of the ground and return some higher margins for their products.

The only drawback is a relatively high Kiwi/US dollar cross but the Kiwi seems to have peaked out late 2010 as the dire state of our economy and deficits become clearer.

Watch for a good bounce in profit for 2011 as a result of these favourable key points come together.

NZ Oil & Gas @ Share Investor

NZ Oil & Gas Ltd: Impacted by Pike River Coal
Long Term View: NZ Oil & Gas Ltd

Discuss NZO @ Share Investor Forum
Download NZO Company Reports

Other Notable Quotables

NZX

Kathmandu Holdings Ltd [KMD.NZX] A retailer currently under pressure. Value below NZ$1.50.

Port of Tauranga Ltd [POT.NZ] New Zealand's leading port company with good upside on increased exports and a good dividend. Best managed port in New Zealand with the best long term prospects.

Auckland International Airport Ltd [AIA.NZX] A good monopoly at historically cheap prices, doing marginally better in 2010 and set to pick up profit in 2011.

Telecom NZ Ltd [TEL.NZX] Value in the company as a hedge against investment inflation. Dividends are over 10% net PA at current share prices (low NZ$2.10 - 2.20 range) and stock worth buying at these low levels for the return and a possible recovery in share price due to its participation in the high speed fibre roll-out and subsequent business around that.

Fisher & Paykel Appliances Ltd [FPA.NZX] has an outside chance of coming right in 2011 if the housing market starts to show some growth and its relatively low share price is a good entry point for a company still in transition from a monopoly to a more competitive model of doing business.

ASX

Tatts Group Ltd [TTS.ASX]
Tabcorp Holdings Ltd [TAH.ASX]
Reef Casino Trust[RCT.ASX]

All Australian casino companies under pressure with sluggish returns and relatively low share prices and ripe for mergers and acquisitions. Possible suitor, Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd [SKC.NZX] that is doing well , has low debt levels and access to over a billion NZ dollars in borrowing facilities and could easily find more if needed.

Nasdaq

A pick from 2010, Yum ! Brands Inc [YUM.NASDAQ] A target of 10% sales growth for 2010-2011 after a 15% plus profit growth in 2010 and more good growth to come from China & India make this company a finger Lickin proposition.

Conclusion & Outlook for 2011

2011 may well be a year of marking time for global stockmarkets. As uncertainty surrounds the fragile state of many economies. The big gains made on stockmarkets in 2010 could materialize for some as nervousness over the aforementioned leaves them to take cash off the table. I think there is more bad news in relation to the global economy to come, but that is only my opinion.

That aside if you can, some listed companies have done well in 2010 and will continue to do so in 2011 but others will find the going tough as cash flow dries up, debt mounts and interest rates bite.

If there is no upturn in the economy, stockmarket share price weakness will have me poised to buy further shares in some of the companies I own in the Share Investor Portfolio with surplus cash of over $16,000.00 in dividends rather than with borrowed funds. I am looking at buying more Fisher and Paykel Healthcare Ltd [FPH.NZX] shares should the share price fall and The Warehouse Group Ltd [WHS.NZX] is on my radar again after a recent share price correction.

Remember, the stocks I have picked above are based on my investment criteria and may not fit yours and of course you could have a different opinion. I would love to hear your opinion and any picks you may have.

Have a look at what I have to say, take it on board or not and then do your own research to see if you might agree with me.

Lastly, I wish you all good luck and a prosperous 2011, we could all use it!

**Just an added footnote. Please feel free to post your own stock picks for 2011. The only requirement is that you say why and declare any financial interest. Post them below at the bottom of this piece or click here.

Disc I own FPH, WHS, SKC, MHI, AIA, shares in the Share Investor Portfolio.

Share Investor's Annual Stock Picks

Share Investor's 2012 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2010 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2009 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2008 stock picks

Related

Brokers 2011 Stock Picks

c Share Investor 2010 & 2011

Friday, December 3, 2010

Pike River Coal Ltd: What's it Worth?

What is Pike River Coal Ltd [PRC.NZX] worth now after 4 explosions thus far have ripped apart the mine and trapped the bodies of 29 miners in its tunnels?

It is hard to say because investigators have yet to have a look at what damage might have been done and if the fire that is now raging in the coal seam can be put out and how much it would cost to get the mine back into production again.

Coal mine fires are extremely hard to extinguish and can burn for very long periods so Pike River may never go back into production. If the fire can be contained it will cost many 10s of millions to repair the damage. At present the company is trying to fashion some kind of remedial fire dampening to allow rescuers into the mine.

With billions of dollars of coal in the ground left to extract there is clearly an incentive to restart this mine but what is PRC now worth considering all these variables and the extra cost of getting the mine back into production?

The market has marked the share price down to around 20c per share with large bids down below the 10c mark. See current market depth below:

Buyers	Buy Quantity	Prices	Prices	Sell Quantity	Sellers
2	10,000	$0.190	$0.190	12,211	2
1	20,000	$0.160	$0.200	197,636	1
1	21,410	$0.150	$0.210	4,204	1
1	2,000	$0.100	$0.220	7,500	1
1	40,000	$0.090	$0.250	10,000	1
1	15,000	$0.080	$0.260	5,145	2
1	70,000	$0.060	$0.270	35,644	2
4	46,000	$0.050	$0.280	27,207	1
5	487,200	$0.020	$0.290	9,000	1
2	500,000	$0.010	$0.300	15,000	2
19	1,211,610			323,547	14

There were actually accidental trades in PRC shares made yesterday, ironically after a 2 minute halt in trading on the NZX to mark the 2 minute silence for the Pike River 29 as New Zealand remembered them and these trades were passed in at 20c each.

The market last traded PRC shares at 88c on November 22 when the shares were put into a trading halt but clearly Mr Market still sees some value in the company and are cautiously optimistic that the coal fire can be extinguished.

Perhaps a better indication of what value the market puts on PRC shares is in the trading of 30% holder in PRC NZ Oil & Gas Ltd [NZO.NZX]. After a trading halt was lifted on NZO shares the share price dropped by about 30%, (see chart below) effectively placing zero value on its investment in PRC and the NZO has been trading in a range of 90-94c since trading in that company recommenced on November 23.

It is still unclear as to just when PRC shares will recommence trading but investors will need to wait until CEO Peter Whittall and his men are able to take a closer look at the damage to the mine and assess the possible costs involved.

If the fire is able to be contained then clearly there will be much motivation to get the mine back into working order because of the large coal deposits yet to be mined. Whether PRC is able to get financing to allow their business to continue is another story.

It will provide opportunities for foreign mining companies to buy this company for a deep discount and for prospective smaller investors to take a smaller punt in the hope the mine goes back into production.

Lets hope they do.

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Share Investor

Monday, April 11, 2011

Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks: Looking Back

Monday, January 3, 2011

Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks

Friday, December 3, 2010

Pike River Coal Ltd: What's it Worth?

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