Thursday, September 23, 2010

Allan Hubbard Saga: 60 Minutes Interview, Sept 23 2010 (UPDATED)

3 News Video On Demand

Source: TV3


In a 60 minutes interview with Allan Hubbard last night Hubbard claims an anonymous unsigned letter was the only reason Hubbard Management Funds and Aorangi Securities were put into statutory management and that he put $40 million of his own money into the latter to keep it afloat.

These two claims I now know are falsehoods and there will be more about that from this blog around these and other falsehoods, over the next week or so. There have been other complaints and any assets Hubbard says he put into either of these two entities were worthless and or wrapped up in inter party lending complications.

I feel sorry for the investors in those companies but like Allan they are blaming everyone else but the man responsible, Mr Hubbard.

Hubbard blames everybody else as well and specifically his fellow directors for not letting him invest in the stockmarket. He claims they wanted to invest in the property deals that ultimately led to the collapse of his empire.

The 60 minutes piece was filmed in Timaru during last weekends hubbardfest led by Paul Carruthers, formerly of the Standby Hubbard Support group.

A soft interview, without thorough investigation, designed to make Allan Hubbard look good.

Poor journalism.

Related Share Investor Reading

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c Share Investor 2010

Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Pumpkin Patch Ltd: 2010 Full Year Profit Analysis.

To those at Lynfield College currently reading this today, you might want to check out the updated links below this post for more on PPL. You can also download PPL company reports for free from here.

The Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL.NZX] Full Year 2010 Net profit after tax up 76% to $25.5 million. It compares to the 2009 Full Year Profit of $14.7 million.

The selling of 20 loss-making stores in the USA along with an improvement in operations there, in the United Kingdom and a relatively flat result in Australasia have contributed to the result.

Repayment of a large amount of debt has also been a key factor in bottomline profit.

The worrying factor is that revenues are down by 11% but some of that can be put down to the closure of the North American stores.

A disappointment to me is that head office costs have remained similar to last year - an effort could have been made to reduce costs during this recession. Likewise the higher dividend, this should have been retained for future growth.

Key Points

- Net profit after tax up 76% to $25.5m
- Net profit after tax (from continuing activities) up 38%
- Total revenue of $382.0m was down 11%
- Total dividend for the year up 27% to 9.50 cents per share
- Improved EBIT margins across all retail markets
- Launch of the new brand Charlie & Me
- Entry into 4 new Wholesale markets


Forecasts by management for 2011 have been understandably sketchy - few NZX listed companies are sure what 2011 will bring - but the indications from management assure shareholders that they are "well placed" if trading conditions improve.

I would imagine the struggle will continue in North America and the United Kingdom and there will be further negative impacts for the Australasian part of the business during 2011, depending on the impact of interest rates on the discretionary spending of Pumpkin Patch's target customer - the young middle-class family.


Disclosure
I own PPL shares in the Share Investor Portfolio.

Pumpkin Patch @ Share Investor

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Discuss PPL @ Share Investor Forum
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Allan Hubbard Saga: Supporters head to the exit door

Interesting that in a piece in the Otago Daily Times on the case that Allan Hubbard supporters say they have against the Statutory Management of several of his financial entities and the spectacular crash of South Canterbury Finance indicates that it is unraveling quicker than a mangy cat pulling on a wet ball of wool:

"Chief Ombudsman Beverley Wakem was yesterday forced to tone down claims her office was investigating an alleged conflict of interest against Securities Commission member Simon Botherway, saying it was looking at the process and procedures followed, not Mr Botherway's actions.

Also yesterday, a formal business connection claimed by the group to exist between Mr Botherway and Christchurch businessman George Kerr was revealed to have ended in December 2004, when Mr Kerr resigned as a director of Brooke Asset Management.

Information on the New Zealand Companies Office website shows Mr Botherway resigned as a director in July 2008 and that Brooke Asset Management is now owned by Macquarie Investment Management Ltd.

The Securities Commission in June recommended Aorangi Securities, seven charitable Trusts and Mr and Mrs Hubbard be placed in statutory management, but it was several days later that Mr Botherway revealed that last year businesses owned by his brother, Jonathan, had been placed in receivership by South Canterbury Finance (SCF), owing $7.8 million.

The Stand By Hubbard campaigners accuse Mr Botherway of having a conflict of interest as a result, a claim that appeared to have some substance when the Office of the Ombudsmen earlier this month agreed to an investigation.

But Ms Wakem contacted media yesterday to emphasise her office was not investigating Mr Botherway and the process was fair and administrative justice was followed in the disclosure of a potential conflict of interest." Otago Daily Times, 22 Sept 2010

Those of you reading my comments on this long-winded saga will know that Allan Hubbard's supporters didn't really have a case from the get-go.

Claims by Paul Carruthers, one of the main drivers of the case supporting Hubbard, have ranged from multiple conflicts of interests, fraud by several politicians and business identities and a conspiracy planned by John Key's Government to set up a bank with his mates in Canterbury.

Claims made by Carruthers and something I was questioning myself, that Simon Botherway had a conflict of interest as his position as a board member of the Securities Commission clashed with its involvement in the statutory management of the Hubbards and the fact that a company owned by Botherway's brother was wound up by South Canterbury Finance, are also looking quite tentative given comments made that the ombudsman is only looking at processes followed rather than the actions of Mr Botherway.

Paul Carruthers submitted the complaint to the ombudsman.

I agree with Carruthers that Botherway's conflict should be investigated. I believe that no matter if he didn't have a "real" conflict of interest - I cant see how he didn't - it is the perception in the public's eye that counts and it is clear that our perception is that Simon Botherway had a conflict at least in that sense.

On Paul, he has spontaneously combusted into the ether after my questioning of him on this post and on a personal Facebook exchange with me yesterday, on the validity and availability of the Pricewaterhouse Coopers Report that his group have placed utmost importance on.

"I never claimed to have it but that doesn't mean I haven't seen it. Why do you want to see it if you are already convinced he is guilty? Are they not paying you enough? Hedging your bets just in case huh?" Facebook Exchange

Paul's personal Facebook page has vanished as have all the comments on the Help Allan Hubbard Facebook page as well as all documents related to his "case" on the Standbyhubbard.org site.

Is Paul sitting somewhere in a corner violently rocking back and forth? He doesn't do quiet at all.

Given the slow unraveling of evidence against Allan Hubbard thus far and more to come over the coming weeks - Grant Thornton Report 3 is due next week - I am betting that Paul and his merry band of pied piper followers will disappear into the ether with not much more than a squeak.

Pressure from myself and others seems to be batting the bastards back.

The silence from the affirmative is deafening.


Related Share Investor Reading

Download Grant Thornton Report 1
Download Grant Thornton Report 2

Allan Hubbard Saga: Threats & the Mysterious PWC Report
Allan Hubbard Supporters: Conflict of Interest
VW Veneer reveals BMW heart
VIDEO: Jenni McManus Explains Allan Hubbard Collapse
Allan Hubbard Statement on SCF Receivership
VIDEO: Sandy Maier - full news conference on SCF Receivership
Market Alert: South Canterbury Finance to be placed in Receivership
Allan Hubbard: Ignorant Supporters Blissfully Unaware
Thornton Report 2: Allan Hubbard Guilty as Charged
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Thornton Report: Allan Hubbard's Aorangi Securities
Whatever happened to? Muriel Dunn
Bothered by Simon Botherway
Allied Farmers: Prosecutions should be on the cards
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Allied Farmers: What's it Worth?
Hanover, Allied Farmers deal more of the same
Jane Diplock Q & A Interview
Hanover's "White Knights" are really daylight robbers
Hanover collapse: It was just a matter of time
Money Managers Saga: 3 Story wrap
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Buy The Intelligent Investor & more @ Fishpond.co.nz

Fishpond


c Share Investor 2010

Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Restaurant Brands Ltd: KFC has finally cracked it

I haven't written much about Restaurant Brands Ltd [RBD.NZX] recently, it has been quietly going about its business with pretty much good results.

Their second quarter sales release prompted me however to come out and discuss some issues surrounding the fortunes of the company.

When I last discussed this company back in early June, I commented over the distortion of figures used by KFC management to report sales figures. They didn't include inflation as part of their calculation:

"The "record" $54 million of sales reported in today's result for KFC is only a record in terms of 2010 dollars. KFC are actually serving up less chicken to fewer customers.

Their best listed year was in 1997 where they did $172.3 million in KFC sales. That is because of accumulated inflation at a very conservative 3% annually over the last 13 years amounts to 39%.

Now lets assume conservatively that RBD sell $220 million of KFC for the full year 2010 and compare that figure to the 1997 record year.

39% inflation means in 2010 dollars RBD would have to sell $67.2 million more chicken just to match the record made in 1997.

$220 million is a fair way from the figure they need to make, of $239.5 million, just to match the 1997 record."

I have also wondered whether the increase in KFC sales was a sustainable one that had a long term take with KFC customers and it looks like given $72.8 million in sales for KFC in the latest quarter that if this growth continues the company could be looking at close to $300 million in total annual sales within the next year or so. This would easily beat the inflation adjusted $239.5 million that they needed to make to beat the record year for sales back in 1997.

I had my doubts but RBD CEO Russell Creedy looks like he has found the secret recipe for this company and its future and that recipe is clearly KFC.

Starbucks and Pizza Hut, the two other brands that the company manages, are still struggling and remain an unprofitable noose around the neck of the parent company.

The only answer for me is when will they be sold so they can allow the KFC brand to flourish even further without the distractions that two other brands bring to the parent company.


Restaurant Brands @ Share Investor

RBD - 2010 Quarter one sales
RBD - 2010 Quarter two sales


Restaurant Brands: KFC Sales Figures Explained - Part 2

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Discuss RBD @ Share Investor Forum



c Share Investor 2010