Stocks on my Watchlist: Metlifecare Ltd

Once a darling of the NZX stockmarket, Metlifecare Ltd[MET.NZ], one of two listed retirement and elderly care village companies, the other being Ryman Healthcare [RYM.NZ], its share price now languishes at a NZ$ 4.36 close this last Friday 18 July and they announced a loss for the half year to December 31 2007 of $12.3 million.

The loss has been explained by management as a result of changes from the application of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). Ryman on the other hand reported a significant increase in profit for the same period.

However, this must put in context with a market that is trying to do its best impression of a lead balloon being tossed from the Empire State Building.

So what would be so attractive to a prospective purchaser?

The fact that the sector of the economy that the MET participates in has had a history of good results and its long term future looks excellent because as we all know the elderly amongst us, save you and I, are living longer and will increasingly need and want the safety, care and security that a well managed retirement village will give them.

Of course long term success is no guarantee, but Metlifecare is a well managed company with a history of good planning, focused property development, for their individual villages and good returns for shareholders and as I have said operates in a growth industry.

Now there have been a couple of attempts over the last few years for a takeover of this company but bidders have been unsuccessful as there are several large shareholders and a couple of them declined to let the bidder have their way, Fisher Funds, the New Zealand fund manager but one of them.

The last bid for the MET was in excess of the closing price last Friday 18 July, which was well short of a stock price high of above 9 bucks Kiwi in 2007. This brings me to another reason why this company is on my radar.

In my humble opinion the current share price represents good value and aren't there heaps of them around at the moment! Net asset backing per share is $6.93, you do the math. Market conditions as they are today have cut the company's capital value by more than half, just like its listed competitor, Ryman Healthcare, which I already own.

So what, the property market, which by definition Metlifecare has exposure to, is in the doldrums. That simply ain't going to last and I wouldn't be surprised if the company isn't getting its tyres kicked by larger investors looking for good companies.

OK, I know Mr Market has got a bad case of the Wiggles right now and it is hard to "pick the market bottom", but if you are one of those guys who do the Rorschach chart predictions, do yourself a favour and stick this one on your slide rule.

I'm putting on my watchlist and looking for a weak day(yes another one) to buy.


Related Share Investor Reading

Why did you buy that stock? [Ryman Healthcare]
Time for retirement?





c Share Investor 2008

NZ HERALD & POLITICAL ANIMAL COMMENTARY: In search of John Key

According to yesterday's Roy Morgan Poll and a trend in polls going back to the end of last year, John Key looks like he is going to win the Prime Minister-ship of this once great country, New Zealand.

Inspirational where Helen Clark is confrontational, practical instead of academic, Key has the promise of the majority of Kiwis behind him, for a return to a prosperous, inclusive New Zealand, where hard work meant reward and welfare was reserved as a backstop not a lifestyle.

Motivating and leading individuals by example to achieve independence, success, wealth and a good life, an anathema to Helen Clark, her Cabinet and those that vote for her.

As the NZ Herald has reported though, we only know Key from some of the mud slung from the left and the fact that he came from an impoverished, poor background-unlike Helen Clark who was brought up in very comfortable surroundings and had an easy life- and worked his way to the top, principally because of his mother, who instilled in him the seed to get on in life.

Something sadly missing from our record numbers of families on welfare today.

People can see in him already the character of the struggling kiwi that once was and that we all have inside us, but need to let go of the State apron strings first to truly fly.

I'm quite excited by the promise to come for the country and hope he has the determination and will that has made his life such a success, from such humble beginnings, to inspire a whole country to get behind him and succeed individually, and to break the current slide into State dependence.

*The first part of the Herald story starts today and finishes next week with part two.

*Read: "Helen Clark: Absolute Power" by Ian Wishart

3:00PM Thursday June 19, 2008
By Eugene Bingham, Carroll du Chateau and Paula Oliver

A young John Key. Photo / Supplied

John Key Timeline

* In three months John Key will be standing for the country's highest office
* Polls suggest that the 47-year-old will be New Zealand's next Prime Minister
* Yet he remains relatively unknown. Who really is John Key? Where did he come from and what motivates his ambition?

One day around 1971, John Key arrived home from school, flopped down his bag and made an announcement: "I'm going to learn to play golf."

He was about 10, a cheerful but unremarkable pupil at Cobham Intermediate. His family - mother Ruth and older sisters Liz and Sue - lived in a state house on Hollyford Ave in the Christchurch suburb of Burnside. Inside, the turquoise carpet was offset by orange and black sofas, the lounge cleaned and tidied to motel standard. There wasn't room to practise putting, let alone a chip shot, on the bare, sloping front yard.

The family blanched. "He might as well have said he wanted to fly to the moon as far as we were concerned," says Sue. "Mum said, 'Why do you want to do that? That's going to cost money!"'

John, the man of the house since his father died several years before and the light in his Jewish mother's eyes, sat down and explained himself.

"He'd figured out that business guys have golf lunches," says Sue. "He told us 'I have to start working on those skills now so when I need them they're in place'."This is one of hundreds of anecdotes the Weekend Herald gathered from scores of interviews for this project. His sisters spoke candidly about him after they were approached in the course of this inquiry, revealing family stories that even their famous brother wasn't aware of. The golf tale is a telling insight because it shows that Key, even as a child of 10, was driven and had calculated what he would have to do to achieve his goals.

The interesting thing about the Key family is that no-one tried to divert him from his golfing ambition. Ruth, who had worked nights to keep the money coming in, probably half expected it.

She would constantly tell the children, especially John: "You can do better than this; I expect you to work your way up in the world."

Step one in John Key's audacious plan was in place.

More than 35 years later, Key is making a bid to be prime minister. But who is he? Compared with others who have stood to lead the country, Key is a relative unknown. He swooped back into New Zealand six years ago, a multi-millionaire thanks to a lucrative investment bank career, then quickly rose to the top of the National Party. Poll ratings suggest he has a royal chance of seizing control.

For five months, the Weekend Herald has researched Key's background to ascertain the essence of the man. The picture which has emerged is of a person of driving ambition and determination who is prepared to do what it takes to achieve what he is aiming for. In pursuit of his goals, Key will not hesitate to seek out people he thinks are best-placed to help him. He is decisive and appears genuine, but at the same time does not like giving offence - it's this aspect of his character which, as we shall explore in part two next week, provides the ammunition for his political opponents to label him "Slippery John".

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Related Political Animal reading

Pointing Fingers in the playground

Desperation by Labour backfires

What happened to risk?

Helen Clark's words ring hollow

c Political Animal 2008

Fairfax Nielson Poll: 19 July 2008

In what is possibly what Helen Clark would call a "rogue poll", Labour have closed to gap in the latest Fairfax/Nielson Poll. The trend has been a 20 point plus gap between Labour and National over the last 4 months with a couple of blips since sept 2007, so it is not as good for Labour as a look at today's single polling result might suggest.

Reinforcing that the Nielson poll might be a rogue one, the Roy Morgan Poll, out yesterday, continues the trend of a 20 plus point lead by National, the same trend established in the Nielson poll.

Poll watchers will be able to state a slip for support for National if there is a similar Nielson poll in August.

The Roy Morgan poll has been the more accurate one in predicting election results and the margins of the vote.


By TRACY WATKINS - The Dominion Post | Saturday, 19 July 2008

Labour has been thrown a lifeline by today's Fairfax Media-Nielsen poll showing the gap with National has closed to its narrowest since last year.

Though National would comfortably govern alone on today's poll results, Labour has clawed its way back from a 24-point deficit last month to 16 points today.

That may not be enough to turn around perceptions that the election is a foregone conclusion, but it has arrested a trend in which Labour's support fell below 30 per cent in the same poll last month, a result that shocked many Labour foot soldiers.

Prime Minister Helen Clark acknowledged Labour's recovery to 35 per cent would be a morale boost.

"I've been saying to people for a long time the feeling in the heartland was nothing like 29 or 30 per cent ... our people will be very motivated by these results."

Labour had been warned that its attacks on National leader John Key's credibility, including a holding of Tranz Rail shares and policies such as ACC, would backfire.

But today's poll shows the gap between Mr Key and Miss Clark as preferred prime minister narrowing to seven points, the closest since November, suggesting the attacks are having an effect.

And it reveals a lot of voters - 28 per cent - remain undecided about whom they would prefer as prime minister. Continued

Related Political Animal Reading

Roy Morgan Poll: 18 July 2008

c Political Animal 2008

Peter's admits lying about Glenn Donation

As pointed out in this blog last week Winston Peters lied about receiving money from billionaire Owen Glenn.

He has just been reported as saying minutes ago in the NZ Herald(story below) "he had only just found out about it" today, thereby admitting his lie, finally.

This is after he labeled Audrey Young from the Herald and the Herald itself liars for reporting that his party, NZ First, had accepted money from Glenn. Earlier this year, when it was discovered that Labour had received secret donations from Glenn, Peters was asked then if his party had received money as well, but he denied it.

His party and himself, strongly supported the Electoral Finance Act, that Peters purported that the act would, "stop big secret money from buying elections", only to accept large donations himself.

This individual has to go.

Pass me a bucket.



Peters: "I just found out Glenn gave me 100K"

8:14PM Friday July 18, 2008

Winston Peters. Photo / Mark Mitchell

New Zealand First leader Winston Peters said tonight expatriate billionaire Owen Glenn donated $100,000 towards a legal action he mounted after the 2005 election, but he denied the money was given to his party and said he had only just found out about it.

Since July 12, when the Weekend Herald published an email from Mr Glenn in which the business tycoon said he had given money to NZ First, Mr Peters has angrily denied that any was received.

He has called reporters liars and called for the resignation of the Herald's editor Tim Murphy and its political editor Audrey Young. Continued

Related Political Animal Reading

Winston's silence is telling
Labour gets tangled in Peter's lies
Leaked Glenn Email
Winston got secret donations from Owen Glenn
Electoral Finance Bill: The purpose is clear

c Political Animal 2008