Some Tips for the Warehouse for a "Recovery"

I was thinking to myself the other day, I do a lot of that these days, what would The Warehouse Group Ltd [WHS.NZX] have to do the drag itself kicking and screaming into the 21st century.

Kicking and screaming because I don't think that the head guy, Nick Grayson has the balls to do it. It would require an initial cost of some many of millions of dollars "changing tack" but after that most of the initial cost would be pure profit.

What got me thinking was that,and I don't know about you but I havent bought a CD, DVD or any sort of content from The Warehouse - and that's where I used to go to get these things because they were cheaper than anyone else. The same goes for all those nic knacks they sell - you can buy mobile phones and radios etc generally cheaper at J B HI FI - and increasingly Amazon. 

The same goes for books and a whole host of other depts within The Warehouse Roof.

If they did their own figures and I'm sure they have done them already, they could already work out which depts are losing money and ditch them.

You would automatically ditch the entertainment area, hardware, home goods and Jewelry and perhaps the toy area and bring within the Warehouse Roof the Warehouses Stationery brand, their Torpedo brands and Noel Leeming that they have a distinct advantage over the rest of the competition in New Zealand - at the moment.

That way they could survive in the face of specialty stores like Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd [HLG.NZX] that continue to innovate online after 130 years in business and the impending deepening of Amazon's clutch on the public wallet.

You would have to drastically cut staff. Perhaps by as much as 30% AND middle management MUST go. They have far too many - as much as 80%. You don't need 1000 pen pushers looking over your daily sales figures and getting the troops on the ground confused by what comes out of head office. 

Something is seriously wrong here. Staff need to be drastically retrained in the art of the sale because last time I looked a "how much does that cost or does that come in a different colour" were met by a impolite strug of the shoulders.

From working at Pak N Save - ironically one of The Warehouses biggest shareholders - for the last 8 months i have found out - whether a like it or not and I do like it, that the customer is no1 and your fellow workers are you mates and if you don't like it you are politely asked to leave. 

I would suggest at the cafeteria at The Warehouse all is not what it could be or should be and there is a lot of backstabbing. These people should leave first. 

It is about people first in the retailing arena, your customers and your people.

The rest should take care of itself.  



The Warehouse Group @ Share Investor

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Discuss WHS @ Share Investor Forum - Register free 
Download WHS company reports

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Have Times Changed?

It seems to me that since I have been invested in the market - 20 years this year with RBD as virginal player - that some things have changed but one thing has stayed the same. If you care to find out what has stayed the same you'll have to wait a tad - if you don't want to wait I don't care.

Go elsewhere.

It seems that people have just lost patience.

That is if people don't get what they want, when they want it they will simply just drop a stock - if it has a particularly tough time but is otherwise doing ok.

Now I haven't done a study into it, I'm just thinking as I put pen to paper but my take on this phenomenon is that it has some basis in fact.

You of course have the ideal institutional investors, like your ACC's and superannuation funds that have largely remained unchanged. They still have money in companies like FPH and MFT for the long term, regardless of short term fluctuations.

AND they are winners.

I'm talking about the individual investors such as myself, who because of technology and age - yes I'm aware that there are many investors far younger than me - are more aware of the ability because of the aforementioned tech and because of their changing investing personalities that are perhaps different from you and me - who may be a little older and think differently when it comes to investing.

Perhaps there's a wee bit of age differentiation from generation to generation and it happens naturally as we get older, we perhaps have different savings and investing goals than we did perhaps 20 years ago.

I don't know.

I didn't get my current investment profile straight away it was around 2007 that I starting reading books like Security Analysis and The Intelligent Investor that I formed the view - along with a hell of a lot of my own thinking - that the only form of investing that really mattered was long-term.

I think that this long-term/short-term thinking and its relevance to the current topic of conversation is the main rub - of sorts.

I still think investing has somewhat changed overall. The short term is, in my opinion a product of the internet and all that the internet has opened us up to the world - good and bad.

It just makes things faster.

AND don't you just love that word disruption.

Disruption to a business, it started with your Google's and has now upset the taxicab business, hotel business and on and on....

Everything seems to have changed to a more I want that now and if I can't have it now I don't want it.

To be fair there are those rarities who have got to the long-term investing thing so much earlier than I and they range across all ages.

I really havent changed much since 2002 when I bought the bulk of my portfolio.

What I am hoping to change is my reactions to what happens in the market - instead of reactions after the fact I want to react before they happen and that will mean watching closer than I have done before - if that's possible!

I finally have got rid of the WHS shares and it seems, while I reacted far too slowly, I reacted quickly enough to get a decent price. They are now selling for a lot less.

Like you're differences between the WHS and HLG. Hallensteins are making an impact online wearas The Warehouse seem to be all over the place with their offerings and barely make in impact.

Why is it that in a world of HLG vs WHS, why does HLG continue to innovate while the WHS remains stale and staid.

That perhaps a title of another column for another day.

Happy long term (and short term)investing.



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The Warehouse Ltd: Time Ladies & Gentlemen

  


Its time this company woke up well and truly and shook themselves into the real world. 

The Warehouse Group Ltd [WHS.NZX] is currently worth about $745 million dollars, some $250m less than when we last visited this on March 12.

At this rate the share price will collapse once it reaches that important psychological $2 mark.

Its not looking good for their next result in September and going out and selling their Newmarket property is just the last bastion to ward of the creditors.

Those at head office must be nervous - about what to sell next and about the reality of their situation that nobody wants to shop there and certainly nobody wants to invest in it.

No, not even those that own Farmers are interested anymore (at current prices) and are probably waiting for a spectacular collapse as we move closer to the September result.

I await with interest!



The Warehouse Group @ Share Investor

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WHS Court of Appeal case could be dismissed next week
Commerce Commission impacts on the Warehouse bottom line
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Outcomes of Commerce Commission decision
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Discuss WHS @ Share Investor Forum - Register free 
Download WHS company reports

Security Analysis: Sixth Edition, Foreword by Warren Buffett (Security Analysis Prior Editions) by Benjamin Graham Buy new: $41.77 / Used from: $32.40 Usually ships in 24 hours

c Share Investor 2017

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd: The Time to Buy

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd [FPH.NZX] . If you are a regular reader of this blog over the last 10 years or just a recent convert you will know that I am in love with this stock.

I bought It over many years AND I bought it for a good price.

It currently returns well over 10% p/a and I expect it to increase substantially as the years tick over.

If you are a holder well done but if you're not when is a good time to buy?

My answer to this is not complicated. 

The first thing to remember is that I didn't buy the bulk of my holding until January 2012 and that was after having it on my watchlist for many years.

I bought, because the shares were good value - mainly due to the lower value of the kiwi/US dollar cross.

The lower it goes the less money Fisher & Paykel Healthcare make when it is converted back into kiwi dollars.

Unless there has been a drastic change in the structure of the dollar market this same effect will happen again - no matter how much Fisher & Paykel hedge against the US dollar.

This should have an impact on the share price.

Nothing wrong with the company just the relationship to its various branches - in this case the US one.




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c Share Investor 2017