Monday, November 8, 2010

Auckland Council look set for a Auckland Airport Takeover

With a total holding of 22.45% of shares in Auckland International Airport Ltd [AIA.NZX] the new Auckland City Council is by far the biggest shareholder in the airport company.

It disclosed its shareholding this morning after the amalgamation of the council and the two individual holdings Manukau Council and Auckland city used to have.



With a left leaning council this got me thinking about the possibility that the new council might want to buy more AIA shares. This happened when the former publicly listed Ports of Auckland was purchased by the ARC a few years back under the left wing Hubbard Auckland Council.

I went digging on the council website and found a document that outlines a new council stance on Auckland Airport that allows it to purchase additional AIA shares:

The council adopted the policy on Auckland Airport shares in September 2007 as an amendment to its 2006-2016 10-year plan and the policy was worded and structured accordingly. The policy is now part of, not an amendment to, the council’s 2009-2019 10-year plan and has been updated to reflect this. Some other minor edits have also been made.

The previous policy did not allow the council to buy shares or other securities in Auckland International Airport Ltd outside of a restructuring transaction. The council believes there are a few other scenarios where buying additional shares in the airport would be prudent and having the flexibility to do so, should such a scenario arise, would be beneficial.

Consequently, the policy on Auckland Airport shares, has been changed to enable the purchase of more shares in the airport subject to council approval, following rigorous analysis against the objectives and criteria outlined in the policy.

The rest of this document outlines the possibilities of a new ownership structure for the airport and points out options the council could take:

A change in ownership or control of some or all of Auckland City Council’s shareholding in Auckland Airport, or a restructure of the council’s interest in Auckland Airport, may take place by any of the options listed below, or by a combination of those options, or in any other ways that satisfy the six general assessment criteria set out later in this document.

Option 1: The council joins a consortium, which will execute a full or partial takeover or otherwise acquire a substantial stake in Auckland Airport. The council would achieve an ultimate stake of at least 12.75 per cent in the airport by taking shares, or other securities, in the consortium.

Option 2: The council agrees to Auckland International Airport Ltd merging with another company, exchanging the council’s shares in the airport for shares or other securities in the new entity (provided the council’s ultimate stake is at least 12.75 per cent of that new entity).

Option 3: The council agrees to Auckland International Airport Ltd being restructured so that its business units separate into stand-alone entities, with the council receiving a proportionate equity stake in one or all of the stand-alone entities (provided that the council’s ultimate stake is at least 12.75 per cent of the combined equity of the stand-alone entities).

Option 4: The council sells shares, or other securities, in Auckland Airport for cash or some other form of consideration, provided that the council’s ultimate stake in the airport is at least 12.75 per cent.

Option 5: The council buys shares or other securities in Auckland Airport.

Option 6: The council transfers its ownership stake in Auckland Airport to a holding company.

Auckland Council’s 34 Long-term Plan 1 November 2010 – 30 June 2019
- released 30 Oct 2010

It seems to me that the new council have allowed themselves to be open for a bid in some form for the Airport as whole.

This raises two important questions.

Considering that this is such an important asset why has this change in policy been kept secret by Len Brown and the Council?

Also as a substantial shareholder surely the council should have let the NZX know that their policy has changed for it is material to the market and would have an affect on the company and the whole market should know, not just the guardians of the 22.45% holding in AIA held on behalf of the Auckland ratepayers.

Footnote:

It has been pointed out to me by Matt Nippert from the NBR that it seems the document I described above is an update to a 2007 planning policy and he thinks I have overplayed my hand. I must point out though that the following part of the Oct 2010 policy, which has changed from the 2007 version, is the significant part of the story though:

The previous policy did not allow the council to buy shares or other securities in Auckland International Airport Ltd outside of a restructuring transaction. The council believes there are a few other scenarios where buying additional shares in the airport would be prudent and having the flexibility to do so, should such a scenario arise, would be beneficial.

Consequently, the policy on Auckland Airport shares, has been changed to enable the purchase of more shares in the airport subject to council approval, following rigorous analysis against the objectives and criteria outlined in the policy.


Disclosure
I own AIA shares in the Share Investor Portfolio


AIA @ Share Investor

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Queenstown Airport Buyout @ Share Investor


Queenstown Airport: Court Case looks set to Drag
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Queenstown Airport: AIA purchase good Long-Term but will cost shareholders Short-Term

Discuss this Stock @ Share Investor Forum - Register free
Download AIA Company Reports
Download Queenstown Airport Company Reports




c Share Investor 2010


Fisher & Paykel Healthcare & the US Dollar



Of late the fall in value of the US dollar against the Kiwi dollar has had a deleterious effect on the share price of Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd [FPH.NZX]. This has impacted more so over the last week as the Kiwi was buying almost 80c US as the NZX came to a close last Friday. (see 1 month chart above)

The stock has dropped by over 10% in just over a week in a overall northwards market and will continue to do so as the US dollar does an impression of a kamikaze pilot on speed.

Is this bad news for the company?

Well, yes and no.

Yes because every cent the US dollar drops against ours is a couple of million dollars off the bottomline when revenue are brought back to New Zealand and onto the balance sheet.

The bulk of the "losses" via the currency change will not be shown on the November 24 2010 half year results because FPH still have some hedging in place but we will see some impact and a clearer view on how the company is going to deal with the currency issue for 2011 and onwards.

FPH is doing very well by increasing sales in US dollar terms and has historically done well for long term shareholders, the 2009 half year result was a record one and revenue growth has continued for the company for multiple consecutive years. FPH will manage currency in the future but attention instead investors should be focused on the performance of the business rather than macro issues that are largely out of its hands.

In news to come latter this morning the company is finally building a further extension to its Auckland manufacturing base to cope with increasing demand for its products.

Look for a good opportunity to lay your hands on some of these shares as the price inevitably dips below 3 bucks.

I am looking for sub $2.50.

Disclosure I own FPH shares in the Share Investor Portfolio

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare @ Share Investor

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Discuss FPH @ Share Investor Forum
Download FPH Company Reports

New From Fishpond.co.nz


Hubbard: A Biography of Allan Hubbard

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c Share Investor 2010

Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 8 November 2010

The Share Investor Portfolio is up for the 4th consecutive week. It is up 1.81% or $5038.01 from the previous update due again primarily to the 19c gain in SKC shares in the last week.

There is $15660.03 in unspent net dividends in the bank from the 2010 earnings year and approx $50000.00 in tax credits earned from the portfolio since it began in late 2002.


Share Investor Portfolio @ at 17:30:00, Friday 05 November, 2010 (NZDT)

Stock
Quantity
Cost price
Total cost
Market price
Market value
Change
%
AIA

2,000 $1.700 $3,400.00 $2.160 $4,320.00 $920.00 27.06%
AIA

2,000 $1.510 $3,020.00 $2.160 $4,320.00 $1,300.00 43.05%
AIA

803 $2.150 $1,726.45 $2.160 $1,734.48 $8.03 0.47%
AIA

445 $0.000 $0.00 $2.160 $961.20 $961.20
AIA

64 $1.650 $105.60 $2.160 $138.24 $32.64 30.91%
ASBPB

2,864 $0.000 $0.00 $0.725 $2,076.40 $2,076.40
ASBPB

7,146 $1.000 $7,146.00 $0.725 $5,180.85 $1,965.15 27.50%
BGR

438 $0.000 $0.00 $1.460 $639.48 $639.48
BGR

2,562 $0.990 $2,536.38 $1.460 $3,740.52 $1,204.14 47.47%
FBU

266 $0.000 $0.00 $8.160 $2,170.56 $2,170.56
FBU

848 $9.750 $8,268.00 $8.160 $6,919.68 $1,348.32 16.31%
FPH

3,000 $2.350 $7,050.00 $3.000 $9,000.00 $1,950.00 27.66%
FPH

469 $0.000 $0.00 $3.000 $1,407.00 $1,407.00
FPH

1,531 $3.720 $5,695.32 $3.000 $4,593.00 $1,102.32 19.35%
FRE

1,882 $0.000 $0.00 $3.030 $5,702.46 $5,702.46
FRE

6,749 $3.630 $24,498.87 $3.030 $20,449.47 $4,049.40 16.53%
GFF

541 $0.000 $0.00 $1.970 $1,065.77 $1,065.77
GFF

1,459 $2.330 $3,399.47 $1.970 $2,874.23 $525.24 15.45%
HLG

244 $0.000 $0.00 $4.530 $1,105.32 $1,105.32
HLG

756 $2.530 $1,912.68 $4.530 $3,424.68 $1,512.00 79.05%
KIP

190 $0.000 $0.00 $1.040 $197.60 $197.60
KIP

810 $1.480 $1,198.80 $1.040 $842.40 $356.40 29.73%
MFT

1,000 $7.960 $7,960.00 $7.390 $7,390.00 $570.00 7.16%
MFT

1,838 $8.000 $14,704.00 $7.390 $13,582.82 $1,121.18 7.63%
MFT

550 $0.000 $0.00 $7.390 $4,064.50 $4,064.50
MFT

1,612 $4.200 $6,770.40 $7.390 $11,912.68 $5,142.28 75.95%
MHI

1,646 $0.860 $1,415.56 $0.770 $1,267.42 $148.14 10.47%
MHI

7,000 $0.630 $4,410.00 $0.770 $5,390.00 $980.00 22.22%
MHI

718 $0.000 $0.00 $0.770 $552.86 $552.86
MHI

636 $1.050 $667.80 $0.770 $489.72 $178.08 26.67%
PPG

31 $0.000 $0.00 $0.300 $9.30 $9.30
PPG

1,500 $0.440 $660.00 $0.300 $450.00 $210.00 31.82%
PPG

1,004 $0.800 $803.20 $0.300 $301.20 $502.00 62.50%
PPL

1,000 $3.090 $3,090.00 $1.940 $1,940.00 $1,150.00 37.22%
PPL

1,000 $2.870 $2,870.00 $1.940 $1,940.00 $930.00 32.40%
PPL

939 $4.200 $3,943.80 $1.940 $1,821.66 $2,122.14 53.81%
PPL

877 $0.000 $0.00 $1.940 $1,701.38 $1,701.38
PPL

1,184 $1.530 $1,811.52 $1.940 $2,296.96 $485.44 26.80%
RYM

373 $0.000 $0.00 $2.160 $805.68 $805.68
RYM

4,627 $1.970 $9,115.19 $2.160 $9,994.32 $879.13 9.64%
SKC

5,750 $7.430 $42,722.50 $3.210 $18,457.50 $24,265.00 56.80%
SKC

1,000 $7.600 $7,600.00 $3.210 $3,210.00 $4,390.00 57.76%
SKC

2,750 $7.700 $21,175.00 $3.210 $8,827.50 $12,347.50 58.31%
SKC

1,431 $8.750 $12,521.25 $3.210 $4,593.51 $7,927.74 63.31%
SKC

25,085 $0.000 $0.00 $3.210 $80,522.85 $80,522.85
SKC

899 $4.720 $4,243.28 $3.210 $2,885.79 $1,357.49 31.99%
STU

78 $0.000 $0.00 $2.420 $188.76 $188.76
STU

322 $4.740 $1,526.28 $2.420 $779.24 $747.04 48.95%
WHS

4,500 $3.730 $16,785.00 $3.850 $17,325.00 $540.00 3.22%
WHS

6,979 $6.000 $41,874.00 $3.850 $26,869.15 $15,004.85 35.83%
WHS

2,880 $0.000 $0.00 $3.850 $11,088.00 $11,088.00
WHS

641 $3.710 $2,378.11 $3.850 $2,467.85 $89.74 3.77%


16.84%


Total cost Market value Change

$279,004.46 $325,988.99 $46,984.53


Share Investor Portfolio @ Share Investor

Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 1 November 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 25 October 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 18 October 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 11 October 2010
Share Investor Dividends

New From Fishpond.co.nz


Hubbard: A Biography of Allan Hubbard



c Share Investor 2010




Sunday, November 7, 2010

Vector Ltd: Share Price chasing fibre network success





Vector Ltd [VCT.NZX] is not a sexy stock. It is an electricity lines company run largely by so,so management appointed under a quasi local government regime, with a small public shareholding.

What has been sexy though is the share price rise over the last two months. (see two month chart above) The stock has risen from just over $2.05 back in September to finish at $2.43 at close of business last Friday. Just under 20%.

Its full year result to June 2010 was a good one but the stock price didn't take off until mid September (see 6 month chart below) and it has been going northwards since.

Much speculation has been made as to whether VCTs bid to become a player in the roll-out of a taxpayer funded fast internet fibre laying programme and the management of that network with Vector branded internet customers providing additional income for the company but the jury is still out as to whether the company will be a player and even if they are just how profitable such a network might be for them.

This market speculation, I think, is the reason behind the share price rise. It isn't warranted and even when the facts come out about who the winners and losers will be in the battle for taxpayer moola to install and manage "fast broadband" it will be sometime before we see if it will be a money spinner for anyone.




Vector @ Share Investor

Long Term View: Vector Ltd
Vector sale decision hangs on political knife edge
NZX's Top 10 Dividend Returns

Discuss VCT @ Share Investor Forum
Download VCT Company Reports





c Share Investor 2010