Long Term View: Comvita Ltd

In this series of posts I am going to be looking at stocks listed on the NZX in relation to their returns to shareholders over the life of their listing -what shareholders would now see in their back pockets if they had invested in the company IPO. The calculation of returns includes dividends and tax credits.

Comvita Ltd [CVT.NZX] has been a very poor investment for shareholders since its November 2003 listing* at $2.50c per share . With 26.3c in net dividends, 30% more in tax credits (see NZX chart above) and many rights issues and capital raisings; 0.4:1 subsequent public offering in 2004, 1:4 rights issue in 2006 and a 1:5 rights issue in 2007, gives CVT a minus 108% return (see chart below for the share price percentage gain against the average of all NZX indexes - does not include dividends, tax credits and the share split in its calculation) and over the nearly 7 year listing of CVT an annual net return of minus 15.42%**.

This compares to an annual return from the average of all NZX indexes of 4.28%

* CVT was on the unlisted market prior to its listing on the NZAX in 2003 and subsequent listing on the NZX main board in 2006.




Long Term View Series

Auckland International Airport
Air New Zealand
AMP Ltd
ANZ Banking Group Ltd
Briscoe Group Ltd
Cavalier Corporation Ltd
Contact Energy Ltd
Delegats Group Ltd
EBOS Group Ltd
Fletcher Building Ltd
Fisher & Paykel Appliances
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Freightways Ltd
Goodman Fielder Ltd
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
Hellaby Holdings Ltd
Infratil Ltd
Kirkcaldie & Stains Ltd
Kiwi Income Property Trust Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd
Michael Hill International Ltd
Metlifecare Ltd
Methven Ltd
New Zealand Refining Ltd
New Zealand Stock Exchange Ltd
Nuplex Industries Ltd
PGG Wrightson Ltd
Port Of Tauranga Ltd
Postie Plus Group Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Restaurant Brands Ltd
Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Sanford Ltd
Skellerup Ltd
Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd
Sky Network Television Ltd
Steel & Tube Ltd
Telecom NZ Ltd
Telstra Corp Ltd
Tourism Holdings Ltd
Turners Auctions Ltd
Turners & Growers Ltd
The Warehouse Group Ltd
Wakefield Health Ltd


Comvita @ Share Investor

List of Bruce Sheppard's top NZX listed company debt worries

Discuss CVT @ Share Investor Forum
Download CVT Company Reports


Recommended Amazon Reading


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c Share Investor 2010

Mixed Retail Outlook

Recent announcements by retailers Briscoe Group Ltd [BGR.NZX] Kathmandu Holding Ltd [KMD.NZX] and Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd [HLG.NZX] has got me thinking about the fortunes or otherwise of the other retailers in the Share Investor Portfolio.

Briscoes had a mild upswing in sales for the last half year to 1 August 2010 but in the last quarter of that half sales were down on the same period in 2009. This clearly indicates that the economy is not well at all. Kathmandu over-promised in their IPO Prospectus and last week delivered under par sales revenue. They cited a poor overall retail environment for the gap between their promises and last weeks reality.

Hallenstein Glasson had a different story to tell however with a sizable lift in projected profit for 2010 when compared to the same period in 2009 and a reasonable lift in sales considering the current poor retail environment. This is of course off a reasonably poor 2009 profit but the company is showing promise in a time of closed consumer wallets by concentrating on all important margins, avoiding frequent sales and keeping down costs. All the things the aforementioned seem to be ignoring - with the exception of BGR on costs.

The Warehouse Group Ltd [WHS.NZX] I suspect is going to have disappointing results coming up in September and Postie Plus Group [PPG.NZX] is likely to similarly disappoint the market - nothing new there then.

With the exception of expenses incurred from thus far failed attempts by Michael Hill International [MHI.NZX] and Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL.NZX] to expand in North America I think those two companies will see some improvement.

Retail successes over the last year seem to be concentrated on the specialist retailers who have a loyal following of their strong brands rather than the larger broad based "department store" type operators. They seem to have been able to cuts costs in the lean times in a more expeditious manner than their bigger competitors and keeping costs down, while attracting higher margin custom in this recession is key to staying in business.

You simply cant make money by selling stuff too cheaply just to get rid off it.


Disc I own BGR, HLG, MHI, PPL, PPG & WHS shares in the Share Investor Portfolio


Briscoe Group @ Share Investor

Long Term View: Briscoe Group Ltd
Briscoe's Cash worth looking at
Why did you buy that stock? [Briscoe Group]

Download BGR Company Reports

Discuss BGR @ Share Investor Forum - Register free

Hallenstein Glasson @ Share Investor

Long Term View: Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
The History Of: Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
Hallenstein Guidance not indicative of wider retail recovery
Stock of the Week: Hallenstein Glasson
Hallenstein Glasson Australian expansion needs expert execution
Why did you buy that stock? [Hallenstein Glasson]

Discuss HLG @ Share Investor Forum

Download HLG Company Reports
Download HLG Company History


Kathmandu @ Share Investor

Chart of the Day: Kathmandu Holdings Ltd
Kathmandu Holdings: Market Update Misleads
Kathmandu's 2011 Results Under Pressure from Jan Cameron
Kathmandu IPO: Prospectus Analysis
Kathmandu IPO: Jan Cameron lands a blow to IPO
Kathmandu IPO: What is it worth?
Kathmandu IPO: Retail Interest HighKathmandu IPO: A tough mountain to climb
Kathmandu No.1 but IPO should get the Bullet
Download the detailed Kathmandu Value Cruncher Report - Requires free registration at Share Investor Forum to download
Download Kathmandu IPO Prospectus
KMD Investor Presentation to Macquarie

Discuss Kathmandu @ Share Investor Forum
Download KMD Company Reports


Michael Hill International @ Share Investor

Long Term View: Michael Hill International Ltd
Michael Hill International: 2010 half year profit commentary
Michael Hill Makeover kicks off
Michael Hill International: 2009 full year profit commentary
Toughen Up: What I have learned from the hard times
Stock of the Week: Michael Hill International
Michael Hill TV3 60 Minutes Interview
Long VS Short: Michael Hill International
Marketwatch: Michael Hill International
Michael Hill's profit shines
Michael Hill takes on the windy city
Why did you buy that stock? [Michael Hill International]
MHI has defined growth strategy
MHI profit sparkles

Discuss MHI @ Share Investor Forum
Download MHI Company Reports

Postie Plus Group @ Share Investor

Long Term View: Postie Plus Group Ltd
I'm Buying: Redux
What is Jan Cameron up to?
Whats on Rod Duke's shopping list?

Discuss PPG @ Share Investor Forum
Download PPG Company Reports

Pumpkin Patch @ Share Investor

Pumpkin Patch Ltd move downmarket
Long Term View: Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Pumpkin Patch's North American Downsizing a Prudent move
Digging at Pumpkin's Profit
Long vs Short: Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Buyback shows Confidence in the Future
Pumpkin Patch takes a hit
Pumpkin Patch ripe for the picking
What is Jan Cameron up to?
I'm buying
Why did you buy that Stock? [Pumpkin Patch]
Rod Duke's Pumpkin Patch gets bigger
Buyer of large piece of Pumpkin Patch a mystery
Pumpkin Patch a screaming buy
Broker downgrades of PPL lack long term vision
Pumpkin's expansion comes at a cost
Pumpkin Patch vs Burger Fuel
Pumpkin Patch profits flatten
New Zealand Retailers ring up costs not tills

Discuss PPL @ Share Investor Forum
Download PPL Company Reports


The Warehouse Group @ Share Investor

Share Investor Q & A: Questions to The Warehouse' CEO Ian Morrice
Long Term View: The Warehouse Group Ltd
Share Investor Short: Warehouse Group yield worth a look
The Warehouse Group: 2010 Interim Profit Review
The Warehouse: Big Brands, Big Opportunities
Warehouse strike opportunity to buy
Long Term Play: The Warehouse Group
Share Investor Short: Warehouse Group yield worth a second look
Woolworths supermarket consolidation an indicator of a move on the Warehouse?
Stock of the Week: The Warehouse Group
Warehouse 2009 interim profit a key economic indicator
When will The Warehouse bidders make their move?
Long vs Short: The Warehouse Group
Warehouse bidders ready to lay money down
The Warehouse set to cut lose "extra" impediment
The Warehouse sale could hinge on "Extra" decision
The case for The Warehouse without a buyer
Foodstuffs take their foot off the gas
Woolworths seek leave to appeal to Supreme Court
Warehouse appeal decision imminent
Warehouse decision a loser for all
Warehouse Court of appeal decision in Commerce Commission's favour
MARKETWATCH: The Warehouse
The Warehouse takeover saga continues
Why did you buy that stock? [The Warehouse]
History of Warehouse takeover players suggest a long winding road
Court of Appeal delays Warehouse bid
The Warehouse set for turbulent 2008
The Warehouse Court of Appeal case lay in "Extras" hands
WHS Court of Appeal case could be dismissed next week
Commerce Commission impacts on the Warehouse bottom line
The Warehouse in play
Outcomes of Commerce Commission decision
The fight for control begins soon

Discuss WHS @ Share Investor Forum - Register free
Download WHS company reports





c Share Investor 2010

Gordon Macleod on Ryman Healthcare's Australian Expansion

One Year Ryman Healthcare Chart from NZX


I asked Gordon Macleod, the CFO of Ryman Healthcare Ltd [RYM.NZ] a question about Ryman moving their business model across the ditch before the announcement last week that they were looking at expanding there, so asked some additional questions in a much larger and broader ranging Share Investor Q & A about that move. If you dont want to trawl through the whole interview just check out the Australian questions and answers.

Here are the questions specific to Ryman's move into Australia:

SI- How long will the first village be assessed before expanding further?

GM – We will carefully assess the entire Australian experience, from land acquisition to consenting to constructing, sell down and operations. During the initial sell down phase of the first stages we will get a good feel for how we are going. We have strict business case criteria for capital pay back of a village and we will set the same criteria as we do in NZ for whether the opportunity stacks up.

SI - Just how much research was done before the move?

GM – We have undertaken substantial research over a number of years. Australia has always been an opportunity for Ryman, and we felt the time was right now to take the next step up.

SI - Is your business model different to how such villages operate in Australia?

GM – We are quite different to many, in that we plan to continue to building and operating our own unique villages (many others simply undertake acquisition activity). Most importantly, what we offer will be different in that we plan to offer the same sort of integrated village with a full range of care as we do in NZ. This means that residents will have the security of having their changing health needs met within one village.

SI - Why Melbourne, Victoria first?

GM – We have a number of contacts in that area and it is easy to get to from Christchurch. That said, other states on the East Coast remain a possibility too.

SI - Will business conditions, employments laws, tax structures etc allow you to operate the way you do in New Zealand or do you have to tweak the model for Australia?

GM – As always we will have adapt to local conditions to a certain extent. However, on the whole the overall industry attractiveness and dynamics are very similar which is good. Encouragingly, build costs are actually lower in Australia and on the care side of things providers can obtain an accommodation bond on top of the weekly fees (in NZ rest home / hospital care offers weekly fees only), which we see as an advantage.

SI - If successful in Melbourne what are 5 year growth plans for that State and other Australian States?

GM – We actually just plan to focus on this first village for now. We will develop our strategy once we have a better idea as to the long term opportunity.

SI - Will you concentrate on growth in Victoria first before other States are considered?

GM – Victoria is our initial front runner, as you need to focus your energies somewhere to get traction, but a site could equally pop up in Queensland or NSW first. Once the first site is underway our plan is just to focus on that before anything else is planned. Thereafter it would make sense to focus our energies in one State for a while.

SI - How will expansion in OZ be funded?

GM – Traditional debt funding from our bankers – ANZ and CBA, and through our strong operating cash flows.

SI - Will RYM consider listing on the ASX sometime in the future?

GM – Yes, this is a real option for us once we have a site established. An ASX listing could be a way to achieve better liquidity for investors and to broaden the base of Australian fund managers in the Ryman shareholder list. That said, we have no plans at this stage and the Board will assess this option when the time is right.


Disclosure: I own RYM shares in the Share Investor Portfolio


Share Investor Q & As

Ryman Healthcare's CFO Gordon MacLeod
Ecoya's Geoff Ross
Xero's Rod Drury
Mainfreight MD Don Braid
Burger Fuel Director Josef Roberts
Sky City CEO, Nigel Morrison
Sky City Entertainment: CEO Nigel Morrison discusses 2010 HY
Convention Centre proposal interview with Sky City CEO Nigel Morrison


Ryman Healthcare @ Share Investor

Share Investor Q & A: Ryman Healthcare's CFO Gordon MacLeod
Ryman Healthcare: Interview sneak peak
Ryman Healthcare Ltd: Australian Expansion Needs Care
Share Investor Q & A: Reader Questions to Ryman CFO Gordon Macleod
Long Term View: Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Stock of the Week: Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Why did you buy that stock? [Ryman Healthcare]
Long VS Short: Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Time for retirement?

Discuss RYM @ Share Investor Forum

Download RYM Company Reports

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c Share Investor 2010

Cartoon of the Year: Tom Scott

I'm back ( you cant get rid of me that easily) and I will let you know latter why Political Animal has been away for more than a year but check this out in the meantime. From Tom Scott and surely one of the best cartoons over recent years. It may take your breath away but not half as much as the subject did when he made his racists comments.

Again!