Long Term Play: The Warehouse Group

I grabbed another 7000 shares of The Warehouse Group [WHS.NZ] back in July when the price came down below 4 bucks. That was for my long term portfolio.

I gave my readers the heads up back in September that there was short term money to be made by buying WHS stock at just over 4 bucks those that took up the offer would have been able to make a good 10% on their money in a few weeks if they timed things right.

The Warehouse share price hit $4.08 at close of business on the NZX last Friday (see chart above) after ditching its dividend the previous week and this investor is watching closely again for the share price to drift back below his buying price barrier so he can add more stock to his portfolio.

First quarter sales have stabilized and a slight rise is apparent for whatever reason.

The stock is a good yield play with over 6% gross PA return on current shares prices and dividend payouts, so it beats term deposits hands down which currently languish at just over 5%.



My interest is clearly going to be piqued at closer to the $3.72 I paid for additional stock in July and I am going to have to use borrowed money this time to secure any possible purchase.

The revolving credit line I have sits at 5.5% floating so when imputation credits are added I am still up on any possible deal.

I am looking at adding 5000 more to take my long term holding to 20000.



The Warehouse Group @ Share Investor

Share Investor Short: Warehouse Group yield worth a look
Woolworths supermarket consolidation an indicator of a move on the Warehouse?
Stock of the Week: The Warehouse Group
Warehouse 2009 interim profit a key economic indicator
When will The Warehouse bidders make their move?
Long vs Short: The Warehouse Group
Warehouse bidders ready to lay money down
The Warehouse set to cut lose "extra" impediment
The Warehouse sale could hinge on "Extra" decision
The case for The Warehouse without a buyer
Foodstuffs take their foot off the gas
Woolworths seek leave to appeal to Supreme Court
Warehouse appeal decision imminent
Warehouse decision a loser for all
Warehouse Court of appeal decision in Commerce Commission's favour
MARKETWATCH: The Warehouse
The Warehouse takeover saga continues
Why did you buy that stock? [The Warehouse]
History of Warehouse takeover players suggest a long winding road
Court of Appeal delays Warehouse bid
The Warehouse set for turbulent 2008
The Warehouse Court of Appeal case lay in "Extras" hands
WHS Court of Appeal case could be dismissed next week
Commerce Commission impacts on the Warehouse bottom line
The Warehouse in play
Outcomes of Commerce Commission decision
The fight for control begins soon

Discuss this topic @ Share Investor Forum - Register free





Security Analysis: Sixth Edition, Foreword by Warren Buffett (Security Analysis Prior Editions) by Benjamin Graham
Buy new: $41.77 / Used from: $32.40
Usually ships in 24 hours




c Share Investor 2009

Are we there yet?

Has the stockmarket and wider economy in New Zealand and abroad made a recovery as many commentators have pitched or are we in the middle of something that we don't really have any idea about what will happen?

Well, it depends on who you read, watch or listen to.

I am of the strong opinion that in New Zealand we are in a middle of a downturn that could go either way depending on the reactions to economic conditions.

So far that has included pumping large amounts of borrowed moola into financial institutions and other quasi Government diaspora in order to smooth out the financial bumps and "rescue" us from the worst parts of the recession - the opposite of what we should have done and what got us into the economic toilet in the first place.

This has kinda worked if one doesn't go deeper than a politician looking in the mirror but of course it really is a false economy because in order for a sustained crawl back into the black these "stimulus" packages need to continue and in order for that to happen we have the have the Chinese saver ready and willing to continue to have their savings plundered in order for our emperors keep their clothes.

Is that going to happen? clearly not and when we stop gorging off the hard work of the Asian region we have to eventually pay them back and that is when the hard part comes.

All our money going into paying back what we owe not on stimulating the economy, boy its a circular thing aint it?

Many will know that I am of the opinion that those that took the big risks (individuals and institutions) and made the big money should have been left to fail, for that is the natural order of things and of course teaches good life lessons along the way. If we had left things to collapse we would be on a sure upwards trend in terms of the economy and not the present shaky, socialist type unsureness that we currently find ourselves wallowing in.

Our bailouts, stimulus packages and taxpayer funded car and house purchasing is simply delaying the inevitable downturn. When that happens I do not know but it will and will make the current financial melee look like a walk in the park by comparison.

We will get to our destination in the end though, wherever that is.

Recent Share Investor Reading

• What Infratil sale of Auckland Airport stake means
• Stock of the Week: Ryman Healthcare Ltd
• Kathmandu IPO: Shares set for discount
• Has Warren Buffett Gone Nuts?
• Kathmandu IPO: Prospectus Analysis

Discuss this topic @ Share Investor Forum - Register free

From Fishpond.co.nz





c Share Investor 2009

What Infratil sale of Auckland Airport stake means

The sale of Infratil Ltd [IFT.NZ] 3.87% stake in Auckland International Airport to institutions [AIA.NZ] 3 days ago at first look might not seem good news for existing shareholders.

All is not lost however!

Infratil management state that their reason for selling was "consistent with recent capital management initiatives and provided additional flexibility to fund current and future opportunities".

That means they pretty much took a bath on their short term punt on the airport being sold 2 years ago and when the brakes were put on it by the outgoing Labour Government they held on for too long.

Of course another port sale could be way off in the distance but an investigation into the relaxing of the rules of "sensitive strategic" assets by the National Government earlier this year means that this would be more likely given another bid for the airport.

What is more important to Auckland International Airport shareholders is that the company is doing OK during the current downturn -stagnant profits are all the rage - and is likely to do significantly better in the long term.

The Canadians and Arabs were willing to pay 100% more than the current share price (oh that seems so long ago) so there is still value left in the near monopoly company that is the Auckland Airport.

And that fellow shareholders is the way you should be looking at the Ifratil sale.


Disclosure: I own AIA shares




Auckland International Airport @ Share Investor

Is another Auckland Airport bid likely under a business friendly Government?
Latest Airport coverage
Cullen's move on Auckland Airport has far reaching effects
Cullen's move on AIA tax plan Anti-Business
AIA profit stays grounded
Softening opposition to CPPIB bid for AIA
Directors of AIA bribe brokers not to sell
What is Auckland Airport worth to you?
Second bite at AIA by CPPIB might just fly
AIA new directors must focus on shareholders
Auckland Airport merger deal nosedives
The Canadians have landed
AIA incentive scheme must fly out the window
Government market manipulation over AIA/DAE deal
DAE move on AIA: Will it fly?

Discuss this Stock @ Share Investor Forum - Register free


Recommended Amazon Reading



The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition) by Benjamin Graham
Buy new: $14.95 / Used from: $6.99
Usually ships in 24 hours


c Share Investor 2009

Stock of the Week: Ryman Healthcare Ltd

Ryman Healthcare [RYM.NZ] is a stock up there with Fisher & Paykel Healthcare [FPH.NZ] in terms of possible long term gains.

In my opinion it will grow revenue and profit for many years to come.

The reasons I have included it in this week's Stock of the Week are its long term prospects and the fact that I still think it is cheap stock at current prices.

The elder care sector that Ryman competes in has been growing for the company at a rate of 20% per annum for the last 10 years and shows little sign of abating. In fact current growth rates could look quite modest in comparison to future growth.

Demographics show that in the future the elder population that will need such care that companies like Ryman provide will increase by around 150% over the next 20 years or so.

The stock has been cheaper over the year at a 52 week low of NZ$1.14 but at a $1.97 close yesterday and an all-time high of Over $2.70 at its peak, considering its potential growth this still makes Ryman a good long term stock.

Buy on any weakness if this stock is for you.

Good luck!

Disclosure: I own RYM and FPH shares


Stock of the Week Series

Restaurant Brands Ltd
New Zealand Refining Ltd
Hallenstein Glasson
Mainfreight Ltd
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Xero Ltd
Auckland International Airport
Sky City Entertainment Group
Burger Fuel Worldwide
Michael Hill International
Contact Energy Ltd
The Warehouse Group
Fisher & Paykel Appliances

Ryman Healthcare @ Share Investor


Share Investor Q & A: Reader Questions to Ryman CFO Gordon Macleod
Long Term View: Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Stock of the Week: Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Why did you buy that stock? [Ryman Healthcare]
Long VS Short: Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Time for retirement?

Discuss RYM @ Share Investor Forum




c Share Investor 2009