Has the stockmarket and wider economy in New Zealand and abroad made a recovery as many commentators have pitched or are we in the middle of something that we don't really have any idea about what will happen?
Well, it depends on who you read, watch or listen to.
I am of the strong opinion that in New Zealand we are in a middle of a downturn that could go either way depending on the reactions to economic conditions.
So far that has included pumping large amounts of borrowed moola into financial institutions and other quasi Government diaspora in order to smooth out the financial bumps and "rescue" us from the worst parts of the recession - the opposite of what we should have done and what got us into the economic toilet in the first place.
This has kinda worked if one doesn't go deeper than a politician looking in the mirror but of course it really is a false economy because in order for a sustained crawl back into the black these "stimulus" packages need to continue and in order for that to happen we have the have the Chinese saver ready and willing to continue to have their savings plundered in order for our emperors keep their clothes.
Is that going to happen? clearly not and when we stop gorging off the hard work of the Asian region we have to eventually pay them back and that is when the hard part comes.
All our money going into paying back what we owe not on stimulating the economy, boy its a circular thing aint it?
Many will know that I am of the opinion that those that took the big risks (individuals and institutions) and made the big money should have been left to fail, for that is the natural order of things and of course teaches good life lessons along the way. If we had left things to collapse we would be on a sure upwards trend in terms of the economy and not the present shaky, socialist type unsureness that we currently find ourselves wallowing in.
Our bailouts, stimulus packages and taxpayer funded car and house purchasing is simply delaying the inevitable downturn. When that happens I do not know but it will and will make the current financial melee look like a walk in the park by comparison.
We will get to our destination in the end though, wherever that is.
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c Share Investor 2009