Monday, June 29, 2009

Aaron Bhatnagar Nuts Off

It is hard to get good, upstanding representation from our politicians these days.


National, and especially local, and from all political colours, we seem to be dragging the bottom of the barrel when it comes to governance.

If it isn't Andrew Williams, Mayor of the North Shore, spending ratepayer money like a drunken sailor, with his own ratepayer funded wine, we have Mayor Banks across the bridge trying to outdo him by digging up perfectly good footpaths in the CBD again and spending 80 million bucks "turning sidewalks into roads", while he has well and truly broken his 2007 election promises by promising to use truckloads of ratepayer moola on the 2011 Rugby World Cup.

One of John Banks disciples, Auckland City Councillor Aaron Bhatnagar, appears to be fitting the mold (or should that be mould) when it comes to the stereotypical machinations of local politics.

Aaron is one of those councillors behind the push to build a multimillion dollar shed shaped like a shoebox on the Wynyard Wharf for the wealthy cruise ship set, instead of a world class public space or building, on one of the best harbour sites in the world- don't we just love the Sydney Opera House and its public surrounds.

Anyway Aaron has adventurous activities online, he nutted off yesterday:

This email exchange yesterday between yours truly and Aaron after he made tasteless jokes about Michael Jackson's death on his facebook page.

Only his replies are quoted because he has removed me from his Facebook friends after I told him to bugger off and my comments have been removed.

I basically started off saying he was being tasteless joking about the death of someone and joking about anyone's death is a pretty low thing to do. I wasn't abusive at all.

Here were his replies:

1."Grow up Darren, it was a very mild tongue in cheek comment based on one of his more famous songs. I've seen some pretty repulsive jokes about MJ, usually involving allegations of sex abuse by Jackson, so what on earth is your problem?"

When I suggested that his comments about someone dying were inappropriate for anyone in politics:

2."Any besides, what's my political career got to do with this? If politics somehow distorts my moral compass, what do we make of you, whose blog is called "The Political Animal - Politics with balls".

Are we to take it that your political interests generate an unhealthy fetish with genitalia?"

When I suggested what his mother might think about him joking about someone dying.

3."I get it now. You are Church of Michael Jackson. No criticising MJ by anyone.

I suggest you put a damp cloth on your forehead, have a nice cup of tea, and a take yourself off for a nice nap. You need it.

What a humourless scold."

4."What a tantrum!

I'm frankly astonished at your comments. Of all the things I could have said, it's almost unreal that my rather mild turn of phrase has set you off. If that's a standard you hold dear, then I don't want any of it."

When I told him to bugger off (this is when I DID get a little testicularly challenged) spend some more ratepayer and his daddy's money and make his jokes about dying somewhere else:

5. "LOL - now I know you are a nasty piece of work!"


Now I am used to getting abused by all sorts of people because I have strong opinions and put them out there and fair enough, I LOVE good debate, but a local politician having a laugh at a person dying (even a misunderstood individual like Jackson, there is perhaps a time for jokes but long after the person has been buried) so soon after they have died, surely shows the mentality and arrogance of an individual that really isn't suitable to represent people - what the hell is he saying behind his constituents backs!

Does he joke and carry on in a similar vein? Who knows.

For goodness sake, if you have a political career and have dopey things to say, keep them to yourself Aaron, it aint a good look.

It isn't that bright and it reveals a somewhat foul taste in the mouth.

We clearly need much better representation than this.


c Political Animal 2009

Sunday, June 28, 2009

Michael Hill: Interview with Ian Fraser

You may have missed an interview with Michael Hill yesterday with Ian Fraser. I only caught it by accident while turning the dial.

Michael is currently on a media blitz to sell his book and this is another but more interesting leg.

The interview covers off his personal background and motivation to get him where he has.

It is very interesting to hear that up until the infamous house fire when he was 43 he wanted to "do more" in life but, like most of us, was fearful of making that step out of the comfort zone we place ourselves in. After that incident he reacted in a way that most wouldn't - he calmly decided that there was more to life than what he had experienced thus far and he was going to "go for it".

The fire somehow was the impetus that removed that block and allowed Hill to face new things without fear and that we all face that moment when a choice can be made that will change our lives but we don't always take it. -he did.

There was also an interesting admission, he mentioned that he has made a mistake by buying Whitehall Jewelers Holdings-based in the Chicago out of bankruptcy last year - not usually something that CEO's would readily admit to and he says he has learnt from it, the struggling US business has taught the company as a whole how to respond to the current tough economic times, he said.

I would recommend a listen, the interview is 46 minutes long, 16 MB and can be downloaded at Share Investor Forum here. You have to be a member to download, its free and quick - register, it takes less than a minute.


Disclosure I own Michael Hill International shares.


Michael Hill International @ Share Investor Blog


MICHAEL HILL - Toughen Up: What I've Learned About Surviving the Tough Times
Stock of the Week: Michael Hill International
Michael Hill TV3 60 Minutes Interview
Long VS Short: Michael Hill International
Marketwatch: Michael Hill International
Michael Hill's profit shines
Michael Hill takes on the windy city
Why did you buy that stock? [Michael Hill International]
MHI has defined growth strategy
MHI profit sparkles

Discuss this Topic @ Share Investor Forum


Buy Toughen Up: What I've Learned About Surviving Tough Times

Toughen Up: What I've Learned About Surviving Tough Times

$NZ 33.82 -15% off - from Fishpond.co.nz


c Share Investor 2009

Friday, June 26, 2009

A Note to Prospective Restaurant Brand's Shareholders

There has been market talk in the past and more out today about how positive things look for Restaurant Brands [RBD.NZ] profit next year.

Yes, profit will be up marginally from last year and substantially from the last few years but this company really has had a dreadful past, so any increase in profit will look good.

I am not sure whether anyone follows this company closely in the broker/choker set but if they do they were either in nappies when the company listed back in 1997, too lazy to analyze the company's history properly, or ignoring the bleeding obvious simply because the stock will be back in the NZX 50 next week and brokers will have to add the stock to their index funds - read pump and dump.

While South African CEO Russel Creedy has done a much better job than any leader the company has had, he has gotten the company out of the fast food graveyard by focusing on cutting costs, speeding up service times and levels of service (my experience from gorging at KFC for the last 15 years and being a large RBD shareholder in the past) the industry that his company operates in is notoriously cyclical.

Fast food is currently undergoing a renaissance of sorts because of dire economic circumstances and people are looking for cheaper places to eat. RBD is now in the upper part of the fast food cycle, in fact I mentioned about ten years ago that its business cycle is up and down more than a cheap Krd hooker, anyway, that aside, my bet is that the stock may even race up to one and a half dollars or more from its current 1.02.

Image


It has moved over the last couple of months ago from a low of 57c a stock price it last reached in the late 90s.

My point is if you are interested in buying into this stock, be warned that you should be there for the long-term because its stock price will come down again when it moves back off the peak of its economic cycle and once again struggles to maintain profit.

You have been warned dear readers but as always, do your own research.

Restaurant Brands @ Share Investor

Pizza Hut sell-off provides opportunities all-round
Danny Diab & Restaurant Brands
2008-2009 KFC sales figures mislead investors
KFC Finally Flying
Starbuck's New Zealand Cup doesn't runneth over
RBD gives KFC a push
McDonald's playing chicken with KFC
Restaurant Brand's Pizza Hut faces increasing competition
RBD sales analysis
RBD saga continues: CEO leaves
The secret recipe is out
2007 FY profit analysis
Delivering increased profit in October 2007
No reason for optimism in latest sales figures

Discuss Restaurant Brands @ Share Investor Forum


Related Amazon Reading

KFC in China: Secret Recipe for Success
KFC in China: Secret Recipe for Success by Warren Liu
Buy new: $13.57 / Used from: $11.86
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c Share Investor 2009

Long VS Short : Auckland International Airport

http://chart.bigcharts.com/custom/fairfax-com-nz/chart.asp?rnd=0.3338466193181723&style=2242&symb=AIA&size=1&type=64&time=10yr&freq=1dy&comp=&compidx=NZ50G~1392984&ma=&maval=&lf=&lf2=&lf3=&uf=16384&arrowdates=&arrowlegend=&country=NZ&sid=162937


In this eight installment of the Long vs Short series I am once again going to take look at the chart comparisons for a stock from the Share Investor Portfolio and compare the 10 year return (chart above) to the turmoil of the last year with a 1 year return chart (large chart at bottom of post).

In this series I want to show the merits of investing, using charts, for the long-term vs short term gains or losses. I will use the longest available data to me for the long-term view (10 years )and will make a comparison against the NZX50.

In this segment of Long vs Short I will take a look at Auckland International Airport Ltd [AIA.NZ] .

I currently hold 3000 Auckland Airport shares after buying 1000 of them in November 2006 and 2000 in April of this year. (see small chart below for detail)

My Portfolio

Symbol
Price
Value
Earned
$1.600
$4800
$-540
You own 3000 [AIA.NZ] shares
purchased at $1.78 [$5340]

This stock has been performing well fundamentally over the last 10 years and steady over the last 12 months. Its share price though has been fluctuating wildly over the last few years. From a high of over $3.60 during a competing bid to seize control of the company in 2007-2008 to $1.54 recently.

If I had held this stock for the full 10 years (see large chart at top) my return would have been a whopping 210%-including dividends, tax credits and minus brokerage, the NZX is a gross index of stocks.

By comparison if I had held the stock for just this last year (see large chart below) my return would have been a loss of just over 35%.

My total return after 2.5 years or so of holding AIA stock is a loss of just under 10% (see small chart above) That is after dividends and tax credits are added and brokerage applied, not bad considering the market drubbing of every listed NZX share but there is an 8c gain from the 2000 shares I bought in April at $1.70 each.

Having said that this exercise proves, once again, that the long-term bet is the only one to take.

Long-term, 8 in this series, short term 0.


http://chart.bigcharts.com/custom/fairfax-com-nz/chart.asp?rnd=0.3338466193181723&style=2242&symb=AIA&size=1&type=64&time=1yr&freq=1dy&comp=&compidx=NZ50G%7E1392984&ma=&maval=&lf=&lf2=&lf3=&uf=16384&arrowdates=&arrowlegend=&country=NZ&sid=162937


Long vs Short Series

Michael Hill International

Freightways Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Mainfreight Ltd
The Warehouse Group
Sky City Entertainment


Auckland International Airport @ Share Investor

Auckland Airport needs main focus on its core business
Marketwatch - Auckland International Airport
Why did you buy that stock: Auckland International Airport
Cullen's move on Auckland Airport has far reaching effects
Cullen's move on AIA tax plan Anti-Business
AIA profit stays grounded
Softening opposition to CPPIB bid for AIA
Directors of AIA bribe brokers not to sell
What is Auckland Airport worth to you?
Second bite at AIA by CPPIB might just fly
AIA new directors must focus on shareholders
Auckland Airport merger deal nosedives
The Canadians have landed
AIA incentive scheme must fly out the window
Government market manipulation over AIA/DAE deal
DAE move on AIA: Will it fly?

Discuss this stock @ Share Investor Forum


Related Links

AIA Financial Data

Related Amazon Reading

The SmartMoney Guide to Long-Term Investing: How to Build Real Wealth for Retirement and Future Goals
The SmartMoney Guide to Long-Term Investing: How to Build Real Wealth for Retirement and Future Goals by Nellie S. Huang
Buy new: $24.95 / Used from: $0.01
Usually ships in 24 hours


c Share Investor 2009