Friday, March 20, 2009

Long VS Short: Freightways Ltd

http://chart.bigcharts.com/custom/fairfax-com-nz/chart.asp?rnd=0.3338466193181723&style=2242&symb=fre&size=1&type=64&time=10yr&freq=1dy&comp=&compidx=NZ50G~1392984&ma=&maval=&lf=&lf2=&lf3=&uf=16384&arrowdates=&arrowlegend=&country=NZ&sid=162937


In this sixth installment of the Long vs Short series I am once again going to take look at the chart comparisons for a stock from the Share Investor Portfolio and compare the 10 year return (above chart) to the turmoil of the last year with a 1 year return chart (large chart at bottom of post).

In this series I want to show the merits of investing, using charts, for the long-term vs short term gains or losses. I will use the longest available data to me for the long-term view (10 years )and will make a comparison against the NZX50.

In this segment of Long vs Short I will take a look at Freightways Ltd [FRE.NZ]

I currently hold 8200 Freightway's shares after buying them in July 2006 (see small chart below for detail)

The company has been a good performer over its history and has lifted profit slightly over the last year.

Symbol
Price
Value
Earned
$2.85
$23370
$164
You own 8200 [FRE.NZ] shares
purchased at $2.83 [$23206]
In my 3 years of owning this share my return has been a meagre NZ$164. (see small chart on left)This includes dividends and tax credits. Still I have to say this isn't bad considering the market rorting we have been having.

If I had bought this share just a year ago (see large chart at bottom) my return would have been minus 30%, proving once again short term investing can be very volatile.

Now for the real point of this comparison lets look at the

return for Freightway's shareholders who have held the stock for 10 years. (see large chart above)

From a high of a 570% return in 2007 a 10 year return is still around 220%.

I am looking for a long term loser after six installments of long VS short but Freightways ain't one of them.

http://chart.bigcharts.com/custom/fairfax-com-nz/chart.asp?rnd=0.3338466193181723&style=2242&symb=fre&size=1&type=64&time=1yr&freq=1dy&comp=&compidx=NZ50G~1392984&ma=&maval=&lf=&lf2=&lf3=&uf=16384&arrowdates=&arrowlegend=&country=NZ&sid=162937


Freightways @ Share Investor

Freightway's keeps delivering

Why did you but that stock: Freightways Ltd
Freightway's delivers
Freightway's packages up a good result

Long vs Short Series

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Freightways Financial Data
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c Share Investor 2009


Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Jon Stewart VS Jim Cramer: Full Interview Video & Commentary

The following is the full (unedited) interview of Jim Cramer by Jon Stewart on his Daily Show originally broadcast on 12 March 2009.

It is in three parts, part one is below, then part two & part three.




If you have been following the stoush between CNBC's Jim Cramer and Comedy Central's Jon Stewart you will know it culminated in a rather bizarre interrogation of Cramer by Stewart on his Daily Show last week.

Stewart really gave it to him with both barrels.



Jon is a loony lefty but the interview is a cracker nonetheless.

The argument that Stewart put was basically that CNBC and business channels like it have been easy on the financial sector, don't ask the hard questions and do so because it is in the broadcaster's best interest to soft peddle their guests because it means more advertising from the likes of the very people that they are cosy with.

This has of course been exacerbated by the financial calamity we have had over the last few years and the fact that Jim Cramer and his ilk never asked the hard questions over the various banking collapses and financial skulduggery that has enveloped American business of late. Even when interviewees have knowingly lied to him he never thought to question them over their untruths.



Stewart also asked whether channels like CNBC were more a self interested group for business leaders to get their point across rather than there to inform the basic Joe on the street that they really should be there to inform the public, making a point that if CNBC were such financial experts then why didn't they inform the public of an impending financial collapse rather than continue to just spruik listed company managers and their companies to an unsuspecting sucker public.

Stewart put these questions to Cramer but was unable to get any more out of him than, "I will try harder..."

Watch the interview, it is priceless.

In New Zealand rather than ignorance our financial media suffer from incompetence, I'm not sure which is worse.


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Monday, March 16, 2009

Briscoe's cash worth looking at

Rod Duke, majority owner of the Briscoe Group [BGR.NZ] is a stingy bastard. He would make Scrooge McDuck look like the free spending Donald Trump.

This is meant to be a compliment.

I knew Duke and his company was sitting on a pile of cash, around NZ$ 40 million, with NO DEBT, but it turns out that over the last year this pile has increased to some $63 million, up from the previous years $49 million.

We know he has been busy with his own money building up a stake in kids clothing retailer Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL.NZ] but Briscoe's penny pinching ways over the last year have worked a treat:

"We've been very frugal. It's been very fruitful our efforts to save and minimise costs," Briscoe managing director and majority shareholder Rod Duke said.

He said there had been no consideration given to paying out some of the extra money as a special dividend.

He has also hinted at acquisitions:

There might also be acquisition opportunities. "That hasn't passed me by either. It would have to be pretty good to coax some money out of me right now, but look... when things look as though they are going to be good, Rod's going to be there with a pocketful of money.

May I suggest Pumpkin Patch or Postie Plus? [PPG.NZ]

Full Year Profit to 25 Jan 2009 was down 48% in a depressed retail market.

Meanwhile back to that cash.

Briscoe's $63 million cash hoard means there is almost 30c for every share and at today's closing of 62c that makes Briscoe one of the better companies on the NZX in terms of financial robustness.

I am seriously looking at adding more and kicking myself for not noticing this earlier.


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c Share Investor 2009

"Sin" stocks saintly for the Wallet

My largest holding, Sky City Entertainment [SKC.NZ] is doing well at the moment.

For the six months ending 31 December 2008 profit was tracking last years' half and I have been telling anyone who would listen at every opportunity that it is a good buy at current share price levels .

With the interim report out today comes the news that gaming revenue at Auckland Casino is up by 4% while Adelaide and Darwin are up by around 14%.

Great news considering the economic downturn.

Lion Nathan [LNN.NZ] the Australasian brewer, majority owned by Japan's Kirin is keeping its head above the foam well with drinkers of their product reaching for a cold one more often and when they do its one of those fancy "premium" beers that poofters and women drink-it works for them though.

Profit was up 4% for the 2008 full ear.

Unfortunately Lion Nathan's share price reflects their strong position in the current economy and is near its highs.

Another stock that has done well share price wise during this current downturn is Restaurant Brands [RBD.NZ] Believe it or not its stock has gone up over the overall market downturn-its big drop ironically came before the recession.

The operator of Pizza Hut, KFC and Starbucks in New Zealand has been selling its product better than it does normally-a temporary thing methinks-because of the recession so says its usually media shy CEO. Diners are apparently "trading down", every chicken has its day I guess.

These are the only 3 "sin" stocks listed on the NZX (Restaurant Brands is considered one by the food Nazis so I respectfully put it there) and they will do well in any downturn.

People like to gamble, drink, smoke, have sex and eat "junk" food and they especially like to do these things during a recession.

If you are reading this from another market consider tobacco, oil and sex related stocks if you have them listed on your local bourse.

They well might give you a lift.

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