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Friday, January 30, 2009
Time to ditch tunnel now that Aunt Helen is gone
Posted by Share Investor at 10:05 PM 0 comments
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Will the speed of 2008 crash be met with a speedy recovery?
I was reading this article yesterday about Citibank, by Alice Schroeder, the author of the latest Warren Buffett biography, The Snowball: Warren Buffett and the Business of Life, and it got me thinking about the break neck speed in which the crash of the credit market led to a plunge in global stockmarkets, a collapse of the banking system in the US, Europe and other countries and then a massive banking rescue package-that didn't achieve its purpose, a global recession and then more recently a huge "stimulus" package pushed by Obama's democrats.
To be sure, you could see a "market correction" coming from a few years ago but the sheer pace of the economic structural collapse over the last 4 months or so has taken many peoples breath away and there will be more financial heartbreak to come.
The piece in Schroeder's article that really got my wheels turning was her retelling of a story about a man who wanted to withdraw $50,000.00 in cash from his local Citibank one Saturday morning, in November 2008. The fuss and flap that this caused the teller and the bank manager and then the queue of people in the bank paying closer attention as voices started getting raised because this chap was getting the run around.
“I want my fifty thousand dollars,” the man said to the teller. The subtlest nerve-twitch crossed her face, but she kept her gaze steady. "I'll have to call my manager," she said. Anyone who has seen "It’s a Wonderful Life" knows: That’s the wrong answer. “I want my money,” said the customer, in a voice audible throughout the lobby. “I don’t want your check!” Tiny gasps from the line. Somebody had said it aloud – Citi’s check might bounce...
It was a run on the bank!
On the Sunday the Treasury Department pulled a rescue plan out of the hat that stopped the run on banks when they opened Monday, that would have been reminiscent of the 1930s.
The world knew about the run the following day.
When we compare the 1929 crash to 2008, the speed of the 1929 one took longer to play out than the current one and it spread quicker around the globe because of global communications and media saturation.
The consequences of the collapse though will play out over years, and in that respect 1929 is no different to 2008.
This got me thinking even more.
If the speed of the collapse and reaction to it is so much quicker than previous financial calamities, then perhaps the recovery will come much quicker than the 20 or so years it took American to dig its way out of the 1929 crash?
To be sure, the stimulus of WW2 was the principle catalyst for America's 1950's recovery but governments around the world are busy getting their own stimulus packages together and while I don't have complete faith in Government its gotta have some positive stimulus, right?
A silver lining in every cloud and all that sort of baloney.
Don't get me wrong, I haven't turned into a Pollyanna-ish angel with blinkered eyes and my head up my lowest orifice. The recovery will be hard, it will take time and we are all going to have to save instead of spend for the next generation, and hopefully beyond, to get ourselves out of the bog.
The debt incurred for taxpayers worldwide via the massive corporate bailouts is going to be a rather big millstone.
The recovery of the global economy however maybe sooner than we think.
Fingers crossed.
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c Share Investor 2009
Posted by Share Investor at 12:01 AM 0 comments
Labels: 2008 crash, Citibank
Monday, January 26, 2009
When will The Warehouse bidders make their move?
The length of time that has passed between The Warehouse Group [WHS.NZ] deciding to drop their "Extra" format stores-the impediment that the Commerce Commission most recently successfully argued in the Court of Appeal was the reason the company couldn't be sold to its two current suitors-doesn't look encouraging for any positive outcome anytime soon.
Just when are they going to make a move?
In January, The Australian reported that both The Warehouse' suitors were "still considering" a purchase of the company .
There are a few reasons why Foodstuffs and Woolworths Australia [WOW.ASX] The Warehouse' two suitors, might be delaying or reconsidering a move.
1. the current uncertain economic climate might make a bid less attractive. I would argue that any bidder might be able to turn this to their advantage though by being able to bid lower.
2. capital maybe harder to obtain in order to make a bid.
3. both suitors could be waiting for a decision in the Supreme Court where Woolworths has sought leave to apply to have the Appeal Court decision quashed
4. Waiting for a response from the Commerce Commission to The Warehouse decision to dump their "extra" format stores.
5. A new proposal from founder and majority shareholder Stephen Tindall to take the business private.
The biggest impediment to a quicker sale process is The Commerce Commission's Paula Rebstock and her failure to make a ruling post the Warehouse ditching their Extra format stores in October 2008.
The Extra format stores were the main impediment, from the Commission's point of view, for denying the sale of The Warehouse and now that they have gone a positive announcement in The Warehouse favour on this matter would let the bidding process begin.
Disclosure: I own WHS shares
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c Share Investor 2009
Posted by Share Investor at 12:01 AM 0 comments
Labels: commerce commission, foodstuffs, Paula Rebstock, The Warehouse takeover, woolworths
Sunday, January 25, 2009
The "New" Money Manager's Investment Vehicle still tainted by its past
Even though Money Managers-the former pyramid scheme seller or what the yanks call a Ponzi Scheme-headed by Doug Somers-Edgar (pictured inset), is trying to turn over a new leaf and reinvent itself the First Step trustee Edward Russell is still talking bullshit:
"While some of the shortfall is sadly an uncontrollable inevitability in the current economic climate, where we have seen and have experienced a period of unprecedented wealth destruction across all investment sectors...
And:
Trying to put a brave face on the losses, Russell said: "This is nothing anyone here is expecting any recognition for, but the high proportion of capital returned to date does underline the correctness of the swift action we took with the First Step Trusts to close them early and liquidate in a controlled and managed fashion. "The effort in this has been huge and the result, despite the losses, has been significantly better for investors than if early action had not been taken." Stuff.co.nz, Jan 23, 2009
Now call me a thicko if you like but should investors have been told when initially putting their hard earned into Money Manager's First Step scheme that it was not only going towards lending for vehicles but the vehicle used (pun intended) to lend that money to punters was siphoned through a related party, Club Finance, where Doug Somers-Edgar was a director?
Of course they should have, because the vehicle financing business is very risky and it didn't fit the risk profile that First Step investors were informed about.
The extent of the "distancing" of the "new" Money Managers from Somers-Edgar is a little hazy.
Back in February 2008 the Sunday Star Times reported that the company was being sold to the Chief Executive at that time, Alasdair Scott, its franchisees, and NZ Funds Management, owned by Somers-Edgar business associates Gerald Siddall and Russell Tills.
At that point the majority ownership still lay in Somers-Edgars hands through trusts directly involved with him and his wife.
There was to be be an announcement regarding ownership but nowhere can it be found, either on the Internet or the Money Managers website.
When the new Chief Executive, Derek Young, was questioned in December about Somers-Edgar's current involvement in Money Managers readers got this answer:
Has Somers-Edgar entirely exited the business?
Yes... almost, is the answer, but his shadow is long. He still owns Heritage, a trustee company which administers the family trusts of thousands of Money Managers' clients. But that is a transitional arrangement, and it will change, Young says. Stuff.co.nz, December 21, 2008
This is pertinent to the issue of First Step and a number of other Doug Somers-Edgar owned related parties because they are being wound up, investors have lost their money and Doug is running for the hills with it because he is selling up!
How clever.
So the issue over his current involvement in Money Managers is unclear as is the outcome for investors in its various related parties.
What is clear however is that the "New-Improved" version of Money Managers still cannot be fully trusted.
Many of the same people still work there, as franchisees and in management, either directly, through trusts or related parties.
Come clean Dougy.
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c Share Investor 2009
Posted by Share Investor at 7:42 AM 0 comments
Labels: Doug Somers Edgar, Money Managers