Saturday, August 18, 2007

Pointing Fingers in the Playground

Growing up in small town, Hastings, New Zealand during the 1970s I was an average boy from a poor family, in spirit and financial acuity, who didn't really aspire to anything above my position in life. Sure, I dreamed of getting out of the life I found myself born to and found an inspiration in my otherwise hopeless Father, in that he worked hard and did his best to provide for his family. I inherited his resounding spirit of working hard for a living and along with my Mothers ability to make my Dads meager wages stretch further than Jonah Lomu could run, I have managed to do quite well in life.

It is often ,as one starts out in life, that ones social outlook on life is formed. The fact you might be born into a certain family background and have particular experiences because of that background can shape how one makes decisions latter on in life and ones general view on how things should be. A political view if you like.

Hopefully one is not stuck in that mold for life though. As an individual grows he becomes more independent and wants to make "his own way in life".

I remember, especially growing up during my High School Years at Hastings Boys, how if you had a talent, especially an academic one, that it was derided and considered negative if you did well at it.

I excelled at an early age in Economics. My home life afforded me the ability to work out that if you could understand how to work hard and save your money, you would be able to get yourself out of the working class background that you found yourself born to.

My school mates however found that continuing to come first in class in Economics wasn't something that was positive at all, in fact I was given hell for excelling at a subject that I loved and understood very well. Collectively bullying an individuals success was the programmed response. Welcome to the New Zealand Socialist grounded, knocking machine!

In places like the United States achieving such a feat was celebrated and you were set apart from your peers because you had worked hard and done well. In New Zealand the Socialist knocking machine didn't allow for you to stand out from your peers for doing well. Those that did better than the average were always treated by others badly because clearly there was a pervading jealousy that came out in them as their efforts never quite got them there.

The answer was to pull achievers down to their level.

Nothing much has changed today. The great Kiwi Socialist knocking machine has reared its ugly head in the New Zealand Parliament. Ever since John Key popped his head above the parapet and became leader of the Opposition his success in life has become the stuff of derision , envy, jealousy and avarice from the Labour Government.

At no time has this vindictive, nasty,cancerous attitude towards individual success been more apparent than during the last few weeks in the house.

Helen Clarke and her "House-Yard" bullies have been braying and knocking at John Key simply because of the achievements he has made during his very distinguished career in the finance industry. He has educated himself at University, worked hard in his chosen career and made allot of money. Something to be looked up to one would think?

Not in this country and certainly not by those in the Labour Government.

John Key grew up in from very humble beginnings coming from a poor background and working hard to achieve in life.

His position therefore in a political party in opposition to a Socialist, collective, Labour Government is an anathema to Helen Clarke and her comrades. Ironically Clarke is from a privileged farming background and learnt her socialist ways from the theories expounded from communist dictum's read at Auckland University. John Key grew up with a socialist background and managed to break free from the socialist collectivism that restrains individuals from being themselves. Helen Clarke and Micheal Cullen learnt at Auckland University in the 1970s to do the very opposite.

It is from this perspective of a "everyone is equal" collective ideal and theory learnt at University that Labour has attacked John Keys individual achievements in life and every piece of policy and thinking coming from Labour sets out to stifle individuality, achievement and the possibility that ones endeavours could put them in the spotlight because they have worked hard and their efforts have put them in a position that should be admired rather than derided and chided by those either too lazy or not talented enough to want to stand out from the crowd.

In fact mediocrity and laziness is rewarded by Labour. Two glaring examples , High School pupils get passes in subjects at school for picking up litter and unmarried mothers get welfare from taxpayers to have children.

Incidentally in Labours efforts to fashion New Zealanders as "equal" and have "equal opportunity of outcomes" the same collective missives don't apply to those that deem themselves worthy that they know best, have New Zealanders best interests at heart and are doing for the collective Kiwi nation what is best for them. That is Socialism at work though. The anointed deem themselves as above the very collective Socialist ideal that they wish for us and the epitome of this is evidenced in the arrogant and high handed manner of Helen Clarke in her attitude that would have her careen dangerously through a country town at high speed in her Limousine but would have an average member of the public lose their license and end up in court and Clarke seeing nothing wrong with that scenario at all. Telling lies to cover up what really happened was the means to make this episode look more palatable to the proletariat of course.

The bullying of John Key and his background and life achievements, in and outside the house, from the likes of Helen Clarke, Micheal Cullen, Trevor Mallard and Phil Goff reeks of envy and jealousy of the kind children would have when they see a child in the playground with a new bike. Rather than a base attitude that would have the collective playground pointing the finger at the individual on the new bike and making fun the collective should be asking themselves individually what one must do to get a shiny new bike for themselves !

What we are seeing in action at present is that John Key is a threat to Labours very core belief that the way for society to progress is for us all to move forward as a group, no one putting their head up , nobody really excelling. Key is a figure of success from a poor background that the majority of the Labour government have not experienced themselves and only read about in books at University.

He has managed, through hard work and obvious talent, to break away. John Key embodies everything that Labour hate. Individualism, capitalism, hard work and ambition to do better and most of all to be rewarded for doing so and they know this trait is latent in every individual .

John Key and successful individuals like him are role models to look up to rather than deride and be the butt of jealousy, envy and pure vindictive Socialist nastiness. The promise that he shows and the threat that he poses to the ideals and Socialist Fauvism that the Labour Government are wedded to, make him the target of their scorn. He encapsulates all that Labour believe should discouraged in society; a good role model to look up to , aspire to be like and be proud to lead a country towards social, moral and financial prosperity through individual pursuit and reward.

In him they can see the individual they would have liked to have been themselves and the possibility of him as Prime Minister in 2008 have them apoplectic with rage for they see in him their collective grip of a South Pacific Socialist Republic of Aotearoa slipping away day by day.

That is Labours agenda for us should they get another 3 years.

The alternative, while not perfect, is the possibility that New Zealanders may finally be free to make decisions for themselves, be responsible for their own lives and most importantly be rewarded for their efforts and achievements.

c Darren Rickard 2007

Friday, August 17, 2007

Global Market Meltdown: What is Warren Buffett Doing?

As we approach Global Stock Markets, the volatility that surrounds them can create opportunities for making a purchase rather than a reason to sell.

I am reminded of what Warren Buffett looks for when buying companies and the cheaper share prices that we are now experiencing are making one of Buffett's tenants of investing more focused as the markets get lower:

His investment criteria included companies with "good returns on equity", little or no debt, "simple" businesses that he could understand, and consistent earnings, Mr Buffett said in his latest annual report. (Warren Buffett 2007 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Report)

Sure , Buffett is talking about companies that he buys having a good return on equity as an operating business. As an investor in cheaper shares though one can use falling share values to buy good companies and as an investor make better returns on your "bargain" purchase therefore making your returns all that much better.


Buffett has been hoarding his cash like your grandma over the last few years and many potential targets would have revealed themselves over the last few weeks of turmoil:

Warren Buffett says the current market chaos and turmoil will probably create buying opportunities for him and Berkshire Hathaway:
"You get more excited when there's a lot going on, you can't help it. And frankly, it will probably present more opportunity to us because when dislocations occur things get more mispriced and that sort of thing...
"So it can be a time of opportunity. It won't be for sure, but generally speaking, when there's a certain amount of chaos in certain sections, the fallout, and its unpredictable where the fallout will be, but the fallout sometimes offers some real opportunities."
(CNBC Aug 15 2007)

Shares of health insurers, steel makers and department stores are down by as much as 18 per cent than they were in May, when Buffett said he would "figure out a way" to raise up to $US60 billion for the right deal. WellPoint Inc, Nucor Corp, Kohl's Corp and dozens more companies are now closer to meeting his investment criteria.

He has disclosed purchases a few days ago that his company has bought a new stake in Bank Of America and increased his stakes in Wells Fargo and Bancorp in the last quarters SEC filings.

As these companies have been beaten down over recent times you might expect the Sage of Omaha to be sniffing around them again.

Warren Buffett's history shows that he has done well during market turmoils as he tends to be doing the opposite to everyone else.

He bought beaten down stocks during the 1970s bear market lull and it paid off handsomely as the 1980s began a bull market not seen since the likes of the 1920s. His mentor Benjamin Graham made money off the 1930s bear market by doing exactly the same thing.

I guess we just have to learn from history. Markets have always had these volatile "corrections". Currently most investors seem gripped in the fear mode and it looks unlikely that the slide will be ended until some certainty comes back to the market.

Buffett and his mentor Benjamin Graham were able to ride these market blowouts and actually make it a positive. Their history and reputations as value investors are largely made during these times of turmoil.

Take a lesson from Warren. Keep cool, keep your head, keep your shares(if they were good ones to begin with!) and look for the bargains that will come.

c Share Investor 2007

Thursday, August 16, 2007

Market Musings on the NZX

Market watchers in North America and Europe may well be asleep as I write this. If you were down in this part of the world you would be watching your portfolio drop once again after NZX investors took their lead from you who are asleep at present. The NZX is down 60 points as I write with the ASX down 165.

Image result for Market Musings on the NZX

My portfolio is down almost 20% from this years highs and the bulk of that drop has been in the last two weeks.

Fear has gripped our market and our dollar cross with the US dollar has fallen from an all time high of over 81c to less than 70c as I write because foreign investors are moving their Kiwi investments offshore for "safer" risks.

I am not selling and will not sell but my main problem at the moment is when to buy more of what I already hold. There are 4 stocks out of the 11 that I hold that have fallen below their original purchase price but they seem to becoming cheaper and cheap by the day. I wait with my finger poised on the buy button on my computer screen.

One stock I am looking at more closely, now that the Summerset Retirement float has been cancelled today, is my holding in Ryman Healthcare (RYM) the Retirement home operator. It is looking tasty but could go lower.

Opportunities also abound in NZs Blue chips. Telecom New Zealand(TEL) is due a 14c dividend soon and is trading well down. Fletcher Building (FBU) has been given a right troweling as of late, with a 23c dividend due and Sky City Casino (SKC) has its chips down a few days before their full year announcement on Monday 21 August.

Auckland International Airport (AIA) has news that just over 6% of its shares have been purchased by Infratil (IFT) in conjunction with a Government Retirement fund, a potential blocker of a merger between AIA and Dubai International Aerospace. Strangely AIA shares are up today.

Steel and Tube (STU) the steel maker and supplier, have announced a 10% profit decrease today on increased business costs and increased revenue. A 14c dividend waits in the wings for STU shareholders.

Fisher and Paykel Appliances(FPA) has announced that they are moving their electronics division to Thailand. It will share a factory roof with the washer division that announced plans to move there earlier this year. 96 jobs will go from South Auckland with a saving to FPA of 6 million dollars.

Meanwhile the Labour Government is in trouble with its voters because the partially State owned and listed airline , Air New Zealand (AIR) has been carrying Australian troops to get them to theatres of war in the Middle East, something that cuts against the beliefs of Labour ministers and a minority of over vocal New Zealanders. The share price landed sharply.

On a much lighter and perhaps tasty note, for the third day in a row Burger Fuel(BFW) has failed to trade.



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  c Share Investor 2007





Wednesday, August 15, 2007

Telecom New Zealand Hangs Up.

Telecom New Zealand's [TEL.NZ] profit announcement last week reveals a company in gradual decline.

There are many reasons for this, not the least of them being the fact that management have always had a siege mentality to competition, that is, they tended to respond to rivals in a reactive rather than a proactive way. Their customers suffered on monetary and service levels simply because Telecom's monopoly position allowed them to do so.

When Government moved to untangle their monopoly their shortcomings were revealed to a greater extent than we already knew. Overwhelming arrogance seemed to be the order of the day.

Underspending in infrastructure over the last 18 years has left the company in a position where it now would have to spend multi billions just to get their networks and infrastructure up to speed to present day technology so they could offer their customers anything close to high speed broadband or mobile technologies that allow modern fast content.

The shortsightedness of the past seems to pervade Telecom's culture to the core. I say this because the companies answer to falling profits and revenue in the fixed line business was to sell the Yellow Pages unit to a Canadian Pension Fund for NZ$ 2.2B earlier this year. Roughly half of the proceeds will be dispersed to shareholders.

The Yellow Pages unit was one of Telecoms most profitable divisions, contributing over $200M in before tax profit and set to increase revenue and profit in years to come. The new owners have increased their own advertising for their product and are concentrating on growing their online presence.

As a business owner myself I would be ditching declining businesses rather than flogging off the most profitable.

To be sure $2.2 B is a nice little wedge of moola but it is a short sighted of management not to look towards its future in a more considered manner.

Most of Telecoms other businesses are either mature or near maturity. Fixed line is in decline, Mobile is reaching saturation and "Broadband" or what Telecom call broadband is constrained by their 19th century copper wire outlook in a 21st century world.

Lessons that should have been learned in the 1990s: lack of investing back in the business, slow to respond to competition etc, still haven't reached managements brain stems and look unlikely to do so unless coerced by Government intervention.

Management even suggested last week that Taxpayers should fund the badly needed infrastructure needed if New Zealanders "...wanted broadband quicker...".

For a communications company, Telecom New Zealand are not communicating the right message. Its customers continue to get an engaged signal and its clear message to the public at large is that they just don't care.


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