Monday, October 27, 2008

Winston Peters VS Kiwis

I haven't revisited the Winston Peters payola saga, because quite frankly the amount of time and energy put into it has been wasted. 


Nothing anyone has done has been able to put Peters where he belongs. Behind the bars of a prison.

Most of us know he is a crook and wouldn't spit at him if his fancy taxpayer suit caught on fire but there are those that are so deluded and bitter with the world that they will vote for him in spite of us all. 

They have a right to be stupid.

The Serious Fraud Office failure to go after him for secret donations from the Vela Family and Sir Robert Jones is merely another gap in law that allows politician from all hues to get away with breaking such laws because of technicalities and time restricted legislation.

Peters is as guilty as they come, morally and legally and in another jurisdiction would be doing time with petty crims, rapists and murderers but our light fisted legal and justice system has let him off.

Forget that he also stole $158,000 of taxpayer money before the 2005 Election and has so far refused to pay it back. Forget that he took money from a billionaire, lied about it in tandem with his lawyer, then continued to lie to try and squirm his way out.

Forget that money paid to him from the Velas was reciprocated by Peters pouring millions of taxpayer dollars into the racing industry. Forget also that he lied about the Sir Robert Jones donation, how much it was and who solicited it.

Forget that he continues to lie to this day about every part of his political funding process.

Just remember before you vote this November 8.

Winston Peters has lied, cheated and bought his way through 30 years of his Parliamentary career and while that might be a perfect CV for a politician he simply should have no place in politics representing New Zealanders.


c Political Animal 2008

Sunday, October 26, 2008

Cullen has put NZ financial sytem in grave danger

Michael Cullen's belated move last week to guarantee deposits in the wake of a major world credit meltdown is his dumbest move ever as Finance Minister in 9 years and puts our banking and financial system at massive risk.


We needed a deposit guarantee system but it needed to be properly put together, with guarantees for interbank lending, which is the real crux of the credit meltdown, and a guarantee of deposits at our stable banks, not finance companies, which have a much higher risk and offer higher interest rates than banks.

In the haphazard way in which it the deposit guarantee has been constructed, it has already distorted various financial markets and had a run on money coming from banks, managed funds, the New Zealand stockmarket and proceeds from recent house sales and going towards risky and dodgy finance companies.

And why wouldn't you put your money into finance companies?

They now have the same guarantees as the major banks but with higher returns !

Cullen has now produced a scenario that the banks, which were receiving money from finance companies because they were too risky and most of them dodgy, are now unfairly put at risk themselves as depositors money is removed from their vaults to go to higher return finance companies.

This is a nightmare unfolding and in effect puts the major banks at a huge disadvantage. They would have been more financially sound had Cullen done nothing.

Unfortunately Michael Cullen can do little to ameliorate the problem because hundreds of millions of dollars have already been transferred to finance companies and it wouldn't now be prudent to backtrack, practically and of course for himself and Labour would be politically disastrous.

What he could easily do now, since he has interfered already, is direct finance companies to limit their future interest rates and therefore stem the run on banks.

Unfortunately we have a man who is pig headed, does things politically instead of for practical reasons, is way out of his depth and experience and far too slow to react.

The man the he criticises, far from being an opportunist, is able to make the sorts of decisions that Cullen should have made; quickly, timely and with far more experience and accuracy.

As a currency trader, timing for John Key was crucial; not months, not weeks, not days, not hours, not minutes but seconds separated him from making a bad or a good decision.

And he was working in Trillions of dollars everyday, so today's economic climate is comparably like a walk in the park.

We all know how good he was at his job.

Cullen is not yesterdays man, he simply was never up to the job of Finance Minister in the first place and needs to fall on the sharp corners of his faux gold edged framed Doctorate of History degree before he ruins us financially.




POLL: TV One Colmar Brunton Poll, 26 October 2008

According to the latest TV  ONE News Colmar Brunton poll for 26 October 2008, National have slipped two points.

A mini trend that has closed the gap from more than 20 points to 12 has happened over the last few polls.

The previous year-long plus trend was a large National lead:

The poll released on Sunday shows National without an absolute majority for the first time in a year.

The last poll a week ago showed National 14 points ahead of Labour, but this has now narrowed to 12 points.

The National Party has dropped back three points, down to 47%. Labour has also dropped back by one point, now on 35%. Labour's friends, the Green Party have bounced back, up to 8%. Meanwhile, New Zealand First is on 3%, edging closer to the magic 5% threshold.

The Maori Party is sitting on 2.8%, however, their focus is on the electorate seats, so they will not be too concerned with the low party vote. The Act Party is still just above 2%.

Under those numbers, National has 59 seats in parliament and would need the three Act seats to get a majority of 62. UnitedFuture has one seat and would line up with National.

In opposition, Labour has 44 seats, the Greens have 10 and the Progessives one seat.

The Maori Party has four seats, but will not yet say who they will side with, and with these numbers, New Zealand First is out of parliament.

Key is still the preferred choice for Prime Minister on 38% but the race has closed right up. Clark is now breathing down Key's neck on 37%, up by three points. 

More

Polls were expected to close as the election drew nearer but National is still expected to win the majority of seats and votes on election night.


Colmar Brunton Polls

Friday, October 24, 2008

POLL: Roy Morgan Poll, 24 October 2008

The Latest Roy Morgan Poll for October 24 2008 shows a comfortable lead for National and is in stark contrast to the October 10 Roy Morgan poll which showed Labour and National as close as 4.5%.


It is hard to see how  polling could vary by such a large amount over just a week without questioning the validity of last weeks poll which showed a break in the year long trend that today's poll re-confirms.

Federal Poll : Finding No. 4330 : This latest Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 743 electors from October 6-19, 2008. : October 24, 2008

In mid October 2008 with the “World Financial Crisis” worsening the New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National Party support at 43% (up 2.5%), a healthy lead over the Labour Party 32% (down 5.5%). If the Election were held this weekend the National Party would form Government with the help of a minor party.

Support for the Greens 11.5% (up 2.5%) is at its highest level since the last election, while support for NZ First is 4.5% (up 0.5%), ACT NZ 3.5% (unchanged), the Maori Party 2.5% (up 0.5%), Progressive Party 0.5% (down 0.5%), United Future 0.5% (down 0.5%) and Others and Independents 2% (up 0.5%).

The Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating (97.0 points, down 5.3 points) has dropped sharply, falling back below 100 after only a few weeks in ‘positive territory’. Only 23% of New Zealanders expect New Zealand as a whole to have good times economically over the next 12 months.
Full article.

There will be another couple of polls this weekend, from Fairfax Nielson and Colmar Brunton and one last round of polls from the 4 main pollsters next week before an embargo the week of the election.

c Political Animal 2008