1I conducted this informal survey over the last 2 weeks ending Friday 31 October 2008.
They will get enough seats to govern alone.
How do I know this?
Well, I happen to mix in pretty diverse political circles in the business that I operate and I have a large number of acquaintances as well.
The informal polling that I have done-conversational interrogation- tells me that even die-hard Labour voters are sick of Helen Clark, her party and her curious ways.
THE number one reason people give for wanting a change-not as in the Hollywood falseness of an Obama change-is Clark's meddling in their lives.
They say they are sick of being told what to do and the number one interference mentioned is the anti smacking bill and there is a long list of other nanny finger pointing stuff mentioned-right up to the shower head restrictions.
The second reason for people turning their backs on "Helen" is her penchant for ignoring basic democracy. This is highlighted first and foremost by the anti free speech Electoral Finance Act, the refusal by Clark to allow a referendum against the anti smacking bill on election day, the dumping of the Privy Council and the ramming through of the Emissions Trading Tax Bill earlier this year.
Just this last week people seem to be concerned that she used the race card when commenting on facts brought to light by Lockwood Smith about issues faced by employers when dealing with recent immigrants-most of my correspondents thought she and the media were making something out of nothing.
In fact the "overplaying" of nothing issues to score political points by labeling her prey as racist or intolerant is strong on most voters lists of reasons not to vote Labour.
Just this last week the dirt digging that she and her party have done using taxpayer money to smear John Key has backfired in a big way and these moves by Labour towards bitter and gutter politics have put my correspondents off her.
The focus by Helen Clark on personality rather than policy and the distrust people feel about her over issues of donations, her support of a corrupt Winston Peters, her meddling in Kiwi lives, and her lies to cover up her involvement in political scandals are high on the agenda of my circle of pollsters but another issue high on the agenda is the faltering economy and Labours part in that.
Basically they have seen the economy managed into a recession at the hands of Labour under great economic conditions, and now that outside global economic circumstances look bad people are worrying that Micheal Cullen is the wrong man to manage us through it.
Overwhelmingly, they think a person with in depth financial experience would be perfect for the current economic climate and see John Key as the man to manage the economy so as to make life easier for the average working New Zealander for the next 3 years.
"His time has come", remarked on individual.
Well, there you have it, my prediction of a landslide to National for the 2008 election, based on a wide variety of people interrogated personally by my good self.
The electorate is sick to the eyeballs with our Prime Minister, even die hard Labour voters think so.
The swing against Labour is huge, even by loyal supporters and I would concur with my correspondents that National will win comfortably come November 2008.
c Political Animal 2008
