Showing posts with label 1987 sharemarket crash. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 1987 sharemarket crash. Show all posts

Tuesday, October 17, 2017

Share Market Not Like it Was 30 Years Ago

Image result for 1987 stock market crash newspapers in new zealand herald
Looked for photo in the Herald but could only find this one. Picture tells a thousand words.

Share Investors Portfolio @ 17 Oct 2017


The question raised by most pundits this week is will the 1987 share market crash that happened in this country on the 20th October 1987 and in the rest of the world the day before happen again?

I would contend its not when it will happen because it will.

I don't pretend to know just when it will because I don't know.

Lets be clear, the reasons for the 87 crash were varied and wide - depending on who you talk to - but the reasons in this part of the world were a lot different to those in the Northern Hemisphere.

Here apart from anywhere in the world we were going through a vast transformation. 

Business was moving and becoming clearer and cleaner. Restrictions to all business were removed and we were at the centre of a global experiment which was being watched from Wall Street to Fleet St and then tried there in the 1990's and 2000's. 

NZ INC was closed one minute - under Rob Muldoon and then open the next day thanks to Roger Douglas.

Capital moved in from overseas then we were in the grip of a financial tsunami, the likes of which we hadn't seen before.

And what did people invest in?

Bugger all really.

Most of the businesses floated on the stock market at that time had very little to do with real business and those that were doing "good" business were taken along for the ride.

Unfortunately these good businesses were taken down on the 20th October 1987 along with the other ones that shouldn't have been listed in the first place.

Fast forward to today when we have restrictions and various rules around investing on the NZX - there are certainly not enough but its getting there.

The share market is a vastly different space to what it was 30 years ago.

We have companies that actually make money and for the ones that don't have yet it is in investors hands whether they stay or go. 

It is largely up to the investor how much risk they are will to take or make.

BUT and it is a healthy but. There has been risk as long as there has been 2 people willing to trade with each other.

Inherently there is greed and that is the key word and there is no way you will ever get around it.

As long as we have greed and avarice we can be assured that we will have another share market crash.

Just when?


Share Investors Portfolio @ 17 Oct 2017


Share Investor Reading

New Zealand Stockmarket: A History from beginning to present day. 
Stockmarket Education: How do you buy shares? 
Stockmarket Education: What is a Share? 

Stockmarket Education 

Stockmarket Dictionary 
Stockbrokers: What you should know before choosing one 
10 Basic questions to ask before investing 
How the Stockmarket works 
Understanding Risk 
Watch Your Risk Tolerance 
Stockmarket Education: What is a Share? 
What Moves the Stockmarket? 
7 Signs of Shareholder Friendly Management 
Financial Media For Investors 
Dividends in detail 

Related Links
 

NZX - How to Invest 





c Share Investor 2017






Friday, October 19, 2007

It was 20 years ago Tomorrow

No not Sergeant Peppers Band but the Great Stock Market Meltdown of 1987.

I didn't follow the Stockmarket 20 years ago. I vaguely recall a news incident at the time but didn't equate it with anything serious.

I was living in Sydney at the time, so the fallout from it wasn't as bad as it was apparently in New Zealand.

My introduction to the Stockmarket came almost exactly 10 years later, when I bought shares in the fast food operator Restaurant Brands Ltd [RBD.NZ]

Since then I have taken a great deal of interest in equities and my 10 years invested in it has taught me much.

Investing in the NZX has given me an appreciation of business, how fear and greed work in financial markets and most of all made money for me.

The biggest lesson that I have learnt is from losing money in a couple of stocks. That hasn't dulled my obsession with the market though.


Craig <span class=
Craig Heatley (left), and Allan Hawkins
after Rainbow Corporation lists on
the Stock Exchange in the mid 1980s


Unlike some who lost their shirts and more back in 1987 my loss wasn't very large and thousands of Kiwi investors haven't forgotten those heady days and wouldn't touch the sharemarket with a barge poll today.

The New Zealand Sharemarket was one of the worst affected back in 1987 and still hasn't recovered from the hit that it took. Most other global markets have multiplied their values many times in the last 20 years. The US market is now worth more than 5 times what it was worth all those years ago.

True, the NZ Stockmarket is a much more stable and regulated market than it was back in those wild west days but there are still some negative elements that linger today, most notably the insider trading that is done by NZX sanctioned broker firms and management of its listed companies.

Lets hope for a more positive next 20 years. NZX's Mark Weldon is doing a good job so if he straightens the rest of the markets kinks out then we might get somewhere.


Related Share Investor Reading

New Zealand Stockmarket: A History from beginning to present day.
"Mr Market" gets his groove on
A sensible approach to global market volatility
Global Market's dropping and your portfolio
Research, research, research
Watch for dead cats bouncing
Stockmarket Education: How do you buy shares?
Stockmarket Education: What is a Share?


Stockmarket Education

Stockmarket Dictionary
Stockbrokers: What you should know before choosing one
10 Basic questions to ask before investing
How the Stockmarket works
Understanding Risk
Watch Your Risk Tolerance
Stockmarket Education: What is a Share?
What Moves the Stockmarket?
7 Signs of Shareholder Friendly Management
Financial Media For Investors
Dividends in detail



From Fishpond.co.nz - Buy Toughen Up: What I've Learned About Surviving Tough Times

Toughen Up: What I've Learned About Surviving Tough Times

Toughen Up - Fishpond.co.nz


c Share Investor 2007

Share Investor Friday free for all: Edition 8

It was 20 years ago Tomorrow



The day the market took a dive
in 1987.


No not Sergeant Peppers Band but the Great Stock Market Meltdown of 1987.

I didn't follow the Stockmarket 20 years ago. I vaguely recall a news incident at the time but didn't equate it with anything serious.

I was living in Sydney at the time, so the fallout from it wasn't as bad as it was apparently in New Zealand.

My introduction to the Stockmarket came almost exactly 10 years later, when I bought shares in the fast food operator Restaurant Brands (RBD)

Since then I have taken a great deal of interest in equities and my 10 years invested in it has taught me much.

Investing in the NZX has given me an appreciation of business, how fear and greed work in financial markets and most of all made money for me.

The biggest lesson that I have learnt is from losing money in a couple of stocks. That hasn't dulled my obsession with the market though.


Craig <span class=
Craig Heatley (left), and Allan Hawkins
after Rainbow Corporation lists on
the Stock Exchange in the mid 1980s


Unlike some who lost their shirts and more back in 1987 my loss wasn't very large and thousands of Kiwi investors haven't forgotten those heady days and wouldn't touch the sharemarket with a barge poll today.

The New Zealand Sharemarket was one of the worst affected back in 1987 and still hasn't recovered from the hit that it took. Most other global markets have multiplied their values many times in the last 20 years. The US market is now worth more than 5 times what it was worth all those years ago.

True, the NZ Stockmarket is a much more stable and regulated market than it was back in those wild west days but there are still some negative elements that linger today, most notably the insider trading that is done by NZX sanctioned broker firms and management of its listed companies.

Lets hope for a more positive next 20 years. NZX's Mark Weldon is doing a good job so if he straightens the rest of the markets kinks out then we might get somewhere.


Burger Fuel Shares get a Fuel Injection

The image “http://media.apn.co.nz/webcontent/image/jpg/Burgerfeul.jpg” cannot be displayed, because it contains errors.
Burger Fuel Outlet

It hasn't been only the global oil prices climbing lately.

Burger Fuel(BFW) the New Zealand based gourmet burger maker, has had its shares climb from a low of NZ$.60c to 70c over the last week.

On very low volume again but the down trend has reversed.

No news about how the new Kings Cross outlet is going and I will be waiting with with great anticipation for the lowdown.

Good news for this outlets sales will push shares a lot higher.


The Dice get Fluffy

First it was then it wasn't and now it is again.

Sky City Entertainment(SKC) the casino, hotel and cinema operator had its shares halt trading for 15 minutes on Monday because the NZX feared that the company was trading without full disclosure to the market.

http://www.auckland.ac.nz/uoa/fms/default/uoa/for/prospectivestudents/living/auckland/images/Auckland-City-cinema.jpg

Sky City Metro, Auckland
City


This was because there had been rumours that another company had approached SKC management with interest in the entertainment group mainly because a director of the company mentioned it to a reporter on Sunday.

This was initially denied then days latter it was confirmed by SKC management itself that there would be indeed another "interested party" doing due diligence with a view to buy the company.

The other company is possibly US private equity firm TPG which is examining the books of SKC, sources familiar with the matter said today, with any bid seen worth over $US2 billion ($NZ2.7 billion).

The new contender is unnamed.

The complexity and ups and downs with the possible takeover of SKC has seen much confusion and speculation over the last 3 weeks since the M & A speculation was mooted.

I'm still hoping the buyout is a failure because I see more value in the company long term and substantial capital returns to shareholders as cinemas in New Zealand and the Adelaide Casino go on the block.


Fishing for returns


Fisher Funds, the highly successful New Zealand fund manager is currently offering what could be a good investment in years to come, if their track record is anything to go by.

Their New Zealand and Australian listed investment funds have done very well since their inception, with excellent returns so far.

Their latest offering is Marlin Global Limited. "Marlin will provide investors with access to a handpicked portfolio of outstanding growth companies selected from around the world", according to the company website.

This is an excellent way to get exposure to global markets without the attendant fees and taxes to complicate things.

You can download a prospectus here but keep in mind that it may not perform as well as Fishers other funds.

I may apply for a small parcel myself.


The Dots get the Hots

Domino's says Europe's fragmented market offers openings. Photo / <span class=
Dominos Australia wants
a slice of the Global Pizza
Market.


Doing what our domestic Pizza Franchisee with the Pizza Hut license, Restaurant Brands couldn't do, the Australian arm of US giant Domino's is successfully expanding overseas.

It will open at least 35 stores in Europe each year until it reaches 1000 stores, betting on rising demand for home delivered food.

Domino's has a total of 667 stores, with 404 in Australia, 65 in New Zealand and a combo of 198 in France, Belgium and the Netherlands.

Restaurant Brands delivered appalling results when it bought the ailing Pizza Hut chain in Victoria Australia in 2000, with a total of around 60 stores.

Poor management was unable to turn company fortunes around and RBD has now almost finished selling their OZ arm after losing 10s of millions of shareholder dollars.

The pizza biz is a very competitive industry but if Domino's OZ expansion works then their slice of profits will get bigger.

Domino's Australia is listed on the ASX .


NZX Market Wrap



Today, the NZSX-50 benchmark index closed up 3.2 points at 4316.31, just 26 points below May's record high. Turnover was light, totalling $89.2 million. Air New Zealand(AIR) rose a cent to $2.12, Steel and Tube (STU) fell a cent to $4.38, Michael Hill(MHI) lost 20c to $10.30.

Carpetmaker Cavalier(CAV) was even at $3.25, Tourism Holdings(THL) dropped 16c to $2.32, Nuplex(NPX) fell a cent to $7.69 and NZ Refining(NZR) jumped 18c to $7.70 stimulated by rising world oil prices.

Fletcher Building(FBU)was up 4c at $12.38, F&P Appliances(FPA) was flat at $3.70 and F&P Healthcare (FPH) down 4c at $3.34.

Telecom(TEL) rose 2c to $4.54, while Contact Energy(CEN) was a cent higher at 943.

Sky TV(SKT) was up 9c at $5.95 amid talk over the company's planned on-market buyback. Small shareholders have been advised to vote against the buyback, which would increase the stake of Rupert Murdoch's News Corp to around 45.95 per cent, and possibly over 50 per cent eventually.

Sky City(SKC) was up a cent at $5.48, having added 7c yesterday over takeover activity.

Auckland Airport(AIA) rose 1c to $3.08, Freightways(FRE) was up 7c at $3.98, NZX climbed 10c to $9.50, and Rakon(RAK) was up 13c at $5.19, possibly over speculation of a good profit statement.


NZ Dollar Wrap

NZ Currency



The following are Reuters currency rates:

(5pm today - 5pm yesterday, NZ time)

NZ dlr/US dlr US74.90c - US75.22c

NZ dlr/Aust dlr A83.72c - A84.16c

NZ dlr/euro 0.5235 - 0.5284

NZ dlr/yen 86.20 - 87.57

NZ dlr/stg 36.55p - 36.86p

NZ TWI 69.98 - 70.56

Australian dollar US89.37c - US89.32c

Euro/US dollar 1.4300 - 1.4231

US dollar/yen 115.12 - 116.44


Disclosure: I own SKC Shares

C Share Investor 2007