Wednesday, April 8, 2009

2008-2009 KFC sales figures mislead investors

Let me just elaborate on a short post I made at Shareinvestor.co.nz regarding Restaurant Brands [RBD.NZ] results to the year ended 28 February 2009.

It is something I have mentioned many times before but it must be stressed once again because Restaurant Brands shareholders and prospective investors in the company must be given the full picture when it comes to RBD managements disclosure over their KFC sales.

The "record" $211 million of sales reported in today's result for KFC is only a record in terms of 2009 dollars. KFC are actually serving up less chicken to fewer customers.

Their best listed year was in 1997 where they did $172.3 million in KFC sales. That is because of accumulated inflation at a very conservative 3% annually over the last 12 years amounts to 36%.

36% inflation means in 2009 dollars RBD would have to sell $62 million more chicken just to match the record made in 1997.

$211 million is a long way from the figure they need to make, of $234.32 million, just to match the 1997 record.

I am not an accountant and nor do I think I need to be but if such emphasis of "record sales" is placed on a figure by RBD management to gain market approval that the expenditure of 10s of millions of shareholder funds on KFC refurbishment in order to attain those sales then that figure should be clearly accurate and take inflation into account. That is simply not the case here.

Granted one can do the math oneself to come up with relative figures and compare year by year sales but having said that, to use current sales figures as a tool to push further shareholder expenditure must be justified to the nearest decimal point.

RBD's figures therefore do not pass this test and furthermore for analysts and business reporters to accept this without question is surely remiss to some extent.

Still my record with this company probably goes back longer than many on the RBD board or those professional stock analysts in their professional capacity.

Once again I am not an accountant but I would like to see inflation taken into account when businesses do their books, at lease an annotation in the audited reports of what the inflation rate was in the last year so a stockholder or a prospective stockholder can make a fully accurate comparison before they decide to buy, or not as the case may be.

Just to end on a positive note, the company is negotiating with YUM! over the Pizza Hut franchise and it is expected that this will allow RBD management to divest individual Pizza Hut stores to owner operators.

This is one thing I have argued for Pizza Hut for years that individual ownership makes for a better run business because owners have skin in the game. Pizza Hut's competitor Dominos have this arrangement and they are currently experiencing records sales.

This solution will be at once beneficial for RBD because Pizza Hut loses money and for the Pizza Hut brand in New Zealand which will be able to rejuvenate itself under an alternative ownership structure.

RBD shares were up 1c to 86c today on reasonable volume.


Restaurant Brands @ Share Investor

Finger Lick'n Good Management

Chart of the Week: Restaurant Brands Ltd
Long Term View: Restaurant Brands Ltd
Stock of Week: Restaurant Brands Ltd
Restaurant Brands: Buy or Sell ?
Pizza Hut sell-off provide opportunities all-round
Danny Diab & Restaurant Brands
2008-2009 KFC sales figures mislead investors
KFC Finally Flying
Starbuck's New Zealand Cup doesn't runneth over
RBD gives KFC a push
McDonald's playing chicken with KFC
Restaurant Brand's Pizza Hut faces increasing competition
RBD sales analysis
RBD saga continues: CEO leaves
The secret recipe is out
2007 FY profit analysis
Delivering increased profit in October 2007
No reason for optimism in latest sales figures

Discuss RBD @ Share Investor Forum




c Share Investor 2009






Michael Cullen's legacy a sad indictment of Socialism

Michael Cullen is leaving, how sad for all of us.

Before we all get weepy beyond control lets remind ourselves how good he really was.

His Achievements:  

* Taking New Zealand to the brink of economic destruction at a time when the economy was at its best in generations.

* achieving amongst the highest taxes in the world.

*Using those taxes on handouts to those that didn't earn it in the first place.

*leaving middle income people with high debt as a result of those high taxes.

Failing to cut taxes even though faced with the biggest economic boom in generations.

*Leaving Kiwis with the aftermath, massive state debt and huge financial holes in all Government "services".

*growing Government spending by 50% in the last 5 years while the economy grew less than 26%-from about $42 billion to 62 billion!

*saddling kiwis with record numbers of useless bureaucrats.

*allowing the Auckland Airport shareholders to lose more than $1 billion in income.

*buying KiwiRail at 100% more than it was worth.

*Calling those who earn over $60,000 PA "rich pricks".

There is much more but this rich prick has to go to work.

How appropriate though that he gets a job as one of the head posties at the Post Office, where all the dead politicians go when incoming Governments don't know where else to put them.

Still, like the bulk of his life Cullen will continue to feed off the State tit because he is incapable of anything productive.

Hasn't he done well.


c Political Animal 2009


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Tuesday, April 7, 2009

Flight of Fancy

It looks to be like the twitters in National are starting to get the sickness of overinflated egos from the mad lefties over at the opposition benches.

The arrogance and sheer rabid stupidity of the Minister of Education, Anne Tolley to take a trip in a helicopter just so she can "get an overview of distance" in  Auckland simply defies logic and commonsense, things sadly lacking from Labour and one of the reasons they were turfed out on their arses last November.

Sure compared to the billions wasted by Labour this is small potatoes but it is the message you are sending that is the important thing. It is clearly the wrong message!

The message from me is have a look in the mirror before you do something stupid.

c Political Animal 2009


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Monday, April 6, 2009

Mr Obama has a bad case of the Chamberlains

Imagine if you will Barack Obama as a small child in the schoolyard, a bully crowding in on him ready for a biff.

He gets hit, says hes a "bad boy", turns the other cheek and continues getting hit over the term of his school days.

Imagine again if you will a young good looking Barack Obama in his mid 20s walking down the road with his best friend, when a big fellow with malicious intent lays into Barack's buddy.

Barack utters "bad man", does nothing to defend his mate and he ends up paralysed after the attack.

Fast forward to today, Barack is President and is confronted with North Korea blasting a ballistic missile over Japan, destination unknown, Barack and the UN say "bad country" do nothing and we are all left wondering what next.

These things confronted one Neville Chamberlain in the 1930s.

Appeasement towards your bullies/enemies simply doesn't work, they will still be your enemies if you do nothing but then they will know they can continue to escalate the bullying without appropriate consequence.

Eventually when you turn that much cheek you can run the risk of getting taken from behind.

Related Amazon Reading


c Political Animal 2009

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